清风Cedric

The weekly MA30 line is flat, and the MACD shows an increasing upward momentum near the zero axis. The BTC weekly chart is a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow and a short lower shadow, and the trading volume is one-quarter more than last week, indicating that the upward movement is facing significant resistance, and the bullish power is being suppressed, but it still holds the upper hand.
After attempting to reach a historical high, the price did not break through in one go but was forced to choose a pullback near the descending trend line. Currently, it is closing just below the descending trend line. On the 5th, the election results will be visible, and regardless of the outcome, this week will continue to push upward.
Still, the monthly level is bullish, and adjustments at the daily and weekly levels will not affect the larger trend.

The weekly ETH chart shows a small bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow and a short lower shadow, with trading volume increasing by 20% compared to the previous week. The trading volume has been slowly increasing for four consecutive weeks, but the price remains in this range, indicating that the chips are starting to change hands, which is a good sign.
The weekly MA30 line is still in a downward trend, and the MACD is showing a weakening downward momentum near the zero line.
Currently, the price is 20% away from the MA30 line; if the oscillation continues for a few weeks, the distance between the two will get closer, making the upward movement imminent.
The wide-ranging oscillation at the weekly level will continue for a few more weeks. The more sufficient the chip transfer, the smaller the resistance will be during the subsequent rise. While everyone is criticizing Ethereum, the main force is completing the accumulation of chips. Let's patiently wait for Ethereum's rise.

The dealer's drawing generally has 7 stages, which stage is your coin in?
1. Accumulation Stage, Box Fluctuation.
The market often feels like it is about to break through but fails to do so, with overall trading volume starting to increase, and the top and bottom of the box being volume peaks. The decline happens quickly, while the rise is often slow.
2. First Stage of Rally, this stage is generally faster, as retail investors have been misled many times in the accumulation stage and often do not dare to chase the rise, so it quickly pulls away from the cost area.
3. First Stage of Washout, the first stage of washout is often deeper, with a certain decrease in volume, making retail investors think that the stock price will soon break the previous low and thus hesitate to enter.
4. Second Stage of Rally, slow speed, long duration, initially unsure whether it is a rebound or a reversal. After breaking through the high point of the first stage, retail investors are often caught off guard, leading to another storm.
5. The washout in the second stage is often faster than in the first stage; only a sharp drop will instill fear. At the same time, the rally speed is also fast, aimed at forcing in-house investors to sell at a loss and making those outside unable to consider and thus unable to enter in time.
6. Third Stage of Rally, the fastest speed and the largest amplitude of increase. The purpose of this wave of increase is to attract the attention of the entire market, often hitting the limit up multiple times, drawing in retail investors and prompting them to enter at high positions.
The characteristic of this stage is that the price volatility begins to increase, even reaching the extreme limits. On one hand, it is pulling up while selling off, and on the other hand, it builds retail investors' confidence in its rise.
#7. The final stage is the selling phase. The selling phase actually begins during the last wave of rally; it just depends on the extent of selling. If sufficient selling occurs during the rally, the final stage will see a direct significant drop in coin price. Insufficient selling will require high-level fluctuations. At this time, I should focus on the turnover rate.

The ETH daily chart shows a small bearish candle with short upper and lower shadows, and the trading volume is slightly larger than the previous day, indicating a normal pullback trend.
The daily MA30 line maintains a slight upward trend, and the MACD shows weakening upward momentum near the zero line.
The price increase has encountered resistance at the daily MA120 line, leading to a pullback trend. The body of the bearish candle exceeds half of the body of the previous bullish candle, and there will still be a normal downward pullback in the short term, so there's no need to worry too much.
As we've mentioned many times about Ethereum, Grayscale's selling pressure still exists, but the weak situation will not last forever. The period of bottom consolidation has been long enough, and the trend will slowly reverse, so just wait patiently.
The daily level resistance points are 2774-2855-3060-3290, and the support points are 2550-2420-2340.

ETH daily line is a small positive line in the form of a cross star, and the trading volume is a little more than half of yesterday. It has begun to fluctuate and wait for Bitcoin to show direction.
The daily MA30 line is in an upward trend, and MACD shows an increasing upward momentum above the zero axis.
Yesterday, I also said that we should start to adjust and accumulate strength in a fluctuating trend. Since Ethereum passed the ETF, the price trend has performed quite poorly, causing many people to be pessimistic about Ethereum, and the results are often unexpected.
At present, Ethereum is still fluctuating in a large range in the bottom area, so it is still possible to get on the bus when it falls back. We have to be a minority and get results that most people can't get.
Waiting for the day when Ethereum is strong, it will start a large-scale rise.
The daily pressure level is 2730-2810-2930-3030, and the support level is 2520-2420-2340

ETH daily line is a small positive line with upper and lower shadows, and the trading volume is nearly double that of the previous day, and the trend is stronger than Bitcoin.
The daily MA30 line is still in a downward trend, but the downward angle has begun to decrease. The MACD fast line crosses the zero axis, and the slow line is close to the zero axis below the zero axis, showing an increasing upward momentum.
The short-term trend will still be affected by Bitcoin, but there are signs of slow strengthening. It is a good time to buy when it steps back. It is a relatively healthy trend to step back after getting out of the red oscillation range.
The daily level pressure level is 2740-2850 and the support level is 2450-2340-2230

$ORDI
The daily line is a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The trading volume is the sum of the two days of the weekend, but it is less than the average daily trading volume of the previous week. The trading volume is a bit worse.
The daily MA30 line still has a slight upward turn, and MACD is still below the zero axis, showing an increasing upward momentum. In recent days, it has been a fluctuating trend. Some people call it a weak chicken. I think this is a trend of oscillating washing + accumulation. This is the end of the triangle consolidation, and it is about to show a direction. It still tends to rise in price and break through upward.
The daily level pressure level is 31.5, and the support level is 27-25.6

Today, the trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has exceeded 1 billion US dollars, mostly for buying, of which BlackRock alone accounts for 760 million US dollars. With such a huge amount of funds entering the market, it is no wonder that Bitcoin has soared. ​​​

The August non-farm payrolls were ambiguous, and the policy direction after the September rate cut remains to be seen. The August non-farm payrolls data has attracted the attention of both hawks and doves, making the Fed's policy direction this fall full of uncertainty.

A 25 basis point rate cut in September is almost a foregone conclusion, but the situation becomes more complicated afterwards. The ambiguous non-farm report will not change the Fed's tendency to start cutting interest rates at the September meeting.

But it does not provide much clear information about what will happen next - neither does it indicate that a soft landing of the economy is a foregone conclusion, nor does it indicate that the rapid deterioration of the job market requires the Fed to take active measures.

There will be two more employment reports before the November meeting. The June dot plot predicts only one rate cut in 2024, but the September dot plot may show more rate cuts, but it may not be in line with market expectations. October's employment, inflation and economic growth data will be key to determining the next move

In a speech in New York, Trump said that if he is re-elected president, he will promote the United States to become the global center of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin.
He promised to support future industries such as cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence and cut regulations. At the same time, he mentioned that he would adopt Musk's suggestion to set up an efficiency committee to review government spending to reduce waste.
Trump's move is obviously intended to attract supporters in the technology industry, especially practitioners in the fields of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence. Such future industries are indeed the focus of global attention.
But how to balance the regulation of emerging technologies with promoting economic development is a major challenge. Cryptocurrency supporters hope to reduce regulation to promote innovation, but government regulation is also to protect investors and prevent money laundering and other issues.
His ideas of cutting regulations, promoting energy production and establishing a government efficiency committee, although they may be beneficial to economic development, will also face a lot of controversy.
Does reducing regulation mean relaxing supervision of technology companies and financial markets?
Can the government efficiency committee really achieve the goal of saving costs?
These are issues that need to be discussed in depth. #美联储何时降息？

Harris is using Coinbase to accept cryptocurrency campaign donations. But judging from the current U.S. poll data, Trump's approval rating is far ahead of Harris, and Trump is more likely to win the presidential election in the end.

币圈人该有的心态：

1. 播种与收获，不在同一个季节，学会延迟满足。
开局难，尤其是对没有人脉和资源的普通投资者来说，正反馈的周期会更长。别因为短期赚不到钱就急功近利或退缩，很多时候，只要再坚持一下，曙光就在前方。

2. 给自己设个时间段，这段时间只管耕耘，不问收获。
牛熊四年一个轮回，就算从熊市底部买入，也要等两年甚至更长时间才能看到确定的回报。期间会有黑天鹅和各种事故，要有心理准备。

3.行情有周期，熬过低谷才有高光。
市场总是由低谷和高光时刻循环构成的。认识到这一点，你就会明白，当前的低谷只是暂时的，更能坦然面对市场的起伏。市场不会一直低迷，否极泰来，当绝望到达极限，反转就在眼前。

The essence of success is not temporary gains and losses, but long-term persistence in doing the right thing. This includes effective Zhisun strategies, light operations, and staying on the sidelines in unclear or unsuitable sailing conditions.

Understand that every lesson is part of the market, and market fluctuations are normal, so that you can stay calm and continue to execute the pre-set lesson plan. Focus on following your own trading principles and strategies.

The essence of the persimmon market is driven by human emotions and behaviors. Understanding this is crucial to success. You need to learn to take advantage of the emotional fluctuations of the persimmon market, while avoiding being affected by the short-term fluctuations of the persimmon market, and maintain a long-term perspective and strategy.

The current market situation of $BTC is still relatively unstable. The key is whether it can hold the support level of $64,000, which is still an unknown.

In the past three months, every pull-up of $BTC has often been accompanied by subsequent selling, which makes investors feel unbearable. What is more disturbing is that the market occasionally falls into a sideways state for more than a week, which increases the uncertainty and anxiety in the market.

If the price can stay above $64,000, it will be a more obvious signal for market participants. But if it falls below this support level, the market situation may deteriorate further. In this case, it is crucial to adopt corresponding market strategies.

As for the market performance of $ETH , there is no need to make a specific analysis at present, but you can refer to the overall market trend of BTC to make corresponding investment decisions. #BTC走势分析

Welcome to the Bear Trap.

If your cryptocurrency investments are taking a dip, don't be too disheartened. This is usually a common pattern after every halving event. Before the halving, the market is always full of noise and expectations, but the price does not double immediately and often falls back later. However, over the next six months, the reduction in supply from the halving typically affects the market gradually, ushering in a true bull cycle.

It is expected that the market will recover starting from September. This recovery period may last 3 to 6 months, and then there may be another major adjustment. While the future may not exactly replicate the past, there are currently no significant changes that would indicate a different outcome this time. But remember, predicting the future is always fraught with uncertainty.

We call the current situation a "bear market trap" or "liquidity plunder." This is when market manipulators create enough liquidity to trigger panic selling and stop-loss orders by causing a market drop. This forced selling gives large players the supply they need to buy.

Keep in mind that cryptocurrency prices are approximately 98% driven by sentiment and only 2% based on fundamentals. Therefore, don't expect markets to behave rationally. If you're not a long-term investor or don't have enough capital to impact the market in the short term, it might be wise to reconsider your involvement. May you remain vigilant and avoid these common pitfalls on your journey through the financial markets, and I wish you all the best.

The next trend is clear. The Fed will inevitably cut interest rates this year. The Fed said yesterday that it would cut interest rates once. I think it will be more than once. If it is fast, the interest rate meeting will start to cut interest rates in the early morning of August 1. If it is slow, it will start to cut interest rates in September. There will be at least two times this year.

The interest rate has been fluctuating at a high level of 5.5 for a year, just like the 21-year pie, which fluctuated at more than 60,000 US dollars for half a year, and will eventually start to fall. The interest rate is the same. The laws of all things are the same.

So no matter how the Fed people usually make statements, I think the interest rate cut will come soon.

The market is led by the main force, and the main force follows the trend according to the overall financial situation, so what I can see is that the main force has already seen through it.

The main force is foresighted, so the new round of market conditions must be opened before the interest rate cut, but the leeks like to make decisions based on news, and often know it later, and are fooled by these news.

The consensus of leeks: when the market goes up and good news comes out, you know to enter the market; when snot flows into your mouth, you know to get rid of it.

1. How is the market now?
Recently, everyone has seen a lot, so I won’t repeat too much. Now we are in the 4th wave B, X or 5th wave 2 of the overall upward process. The bull of big cake is still there, but the liquidity is currently exhausted. Reduce operations, reduce wear and tear, and wait patiently.
2. What can we do in this panic killing situation?
1. If you have a full hand of $BTC $ETH, including big tickets such as $SOL $BNB, just lie down, because if you have a full hand of big tickets at this time, it means that your position management is very good, and you can also find opportunities to make orders to increase the currency standard;
2. If you have a full hand of small tickets, cottage, this time is the time to distinguish between strong and weak. Don’t look at today’s K-line, but look at the performance of the currency in your hand from the beginning of May to now, during the overall rise of the market. After the rebound, it is a good opportunity to reorganize your position. If you really don’t know what to buy, buy some big cake.

从目前市场和克利夫兰联储的预测来看，应该不会太差，但绝对说不上好，广义CPI，也就是大多数人认为的通胀，不论是市场预期，还是克利夫兰联储的预期都是3.4%，和上个月一样，虽然没有增加，但也没有降低，这个数据对于美联储来说倒是无所谓，毕竟美联储最重要的通胀是核心PCE，但市场不会考虑这么多。

对于市场来说，最大的利好就是失业率上升和通胀下降，前者虽然实现了，但是就业数据的大幅增加还是让市场进入了恐慌，而通胀的数据并未下降，也就意味着美联储的降息可能不会很快，不过通胀的月率两方面的预测数据都是从0.3%降低到了0.1%，也算是好一些吧。

核心CPI的月率没有调整，年率稍微降低了0.1%，也算是过的去了，不过从我个人的观点来看，CPI的数据不论如何都不会影响接下来美联储的议息会议，本周最关键的数据还是周四凌晨的点阵图，和鲍威尔的讲话。
我预测本期CPI符合预期，3.4%

This round of Bitcoin ecosystem BRC2 is more like the last round of DeFi. Although the current wash is quite fierce (new things have big bubbles and the wash is fierce), it is relatively fair and just in terms of mechanism.

Apart from this sector, no other innovative gameplay has appeared yet. Some people say that this concept is over, and it is finished, while others say that Bitcoin does not need an ecosystem at all. When it rises, people are optimistic and have firm beliefs. When it falls, people surrender in fear (fear, doubt, confusion).

Then I think this kind of thinking is likely to chase high again [spreading hands] Don't be afraid, the halving cycle has just begun, just wait for the new high. Even if we take a step back and say that the bull market is about to end, the main force will make a big rebound to the second top and then trap a wave of people chasing highs before ending, not to mention that our round has just begun.

The number of active BTC addresses hit a new low, indicating a lack of liquidity in the market. Not only BTC, but also US stocks are facing liquidity difficulties. Last night, Berkshire A, with a market value of $900 billion, plummeted 99% during the session. Then the New York Stock Exchange urgently announced that it was a technical problem and pulled back the transaction. Affected by this, several giants plummeted, and the scene was very spectacular.
Wall Street broke out that market makers withdrew funds, leading to this historic crash.

The transaction is generated in the pending order. It stands to reason that the farther away from the current price, the greater the depth. Laolang remembers that in 2014, BTC on B.com was sharply pinned, causing many people to buy 1 USD of BTC.

But this situation is rare after all. In most cases, the price will rise and fall in a narrow range, so the market maker will take out the funds for the top and bottom pending orders, which is equivalent to withdrawing the safety cushion. Either nothing will happen, or once something happens, it will be a big crash.