Judging from the current market and Cleveland Fed forecasts, it should not be too bad, but it is definitely not good. Broad CPI, which is what most people think of as inflation, is 3.4% for both the market and the Cleveland Fed. Like last month, it has not increased, but it has not decreased either. This data does not matter to the Fed. After all, the most important inflation for the Fed is core PCE, but the market will not consider so much.

For the market, the biggest positive is the increase in unemployment and the decrease in inflation. Although the former has been achieved, the sharp increase in employment data has still caused the market to panic, and the inflation data has not decreased, which means that the Fed may not cut interest rates quickly. However, the monthly inflation forecasts for both inflation rates have been reduced from 0.3% to 0.1%, which is better.

The monthly rate of core CPI has not been adjusted, and the annual rate has slightly decreased by 0.1%, which is acceptable. However, from my personal point of view, the CPI data will not affect the next Fed interest rate meeting in any way. The most critical data this week is the dot plot in the early hours of Thursday and Powell's speech.

I predict that this period's CPI will meet expectations, 3.4%