Why does the price of Bitcoin rise sharply after each halving???
1. BTC supply decreases significantly • Each halving reduces the reward for miners by half (for example: from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in 2024). • This means: • The supply of newly issued BTC each day decreases by 50%. • From ~900 BTC/day → down to ~450 BTC/day.
→ If demand remains the same or increases while supply decreases → prices tend to rise.
2. Market expectations and psychology • Investors know in advance that halving will occur (about every 4 years), and expect that it will trigger a price surge like previous cycles. • This creates a psychological effect of "buy before the price rises", leading to: • Strong accumulation before and after halving. • FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices start to rise quickly → continues to push prices up.
3. Selling pressure from miners decreases • Miners are the group that frequently sells BTC on the market to cover operating costs. • When block rewards decrease: • They hold more, only selling when prices are high. • The amount of BTC "dumped" on the market decreases → reducing supply pressure.
4. Historical post-halving cycle
Previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all led to significant price increases in the 12–18 months following.
5. Stock-to-Flow model • This is a pricing model based on scarcity. • Halving causes Bitcoin's (S/F) ratio to increase → theoretically increasing its value. • Famous KOL PlanB uses this model to predict BTC could reach: • ~$100k–$150k after the 2024 halving. • And could rise to $1 million by the end of the decade.
✅ Conclusion: + Decreased supply → Increased scarcity + Expectation psychology and FOMO + Miners sell less → reduced pressure + Historical cycles and pricing models support price increases => BTC rises sharply.
Why does the price of Bitcoin rise sharply after each halving???
1. BTC supply decreases significantly • Each halving reduces the reward for miners by half (for example: from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in 2024). • This means: • The supply of newly issued BTC each day decreases by 50%. • From ~900 BTC/day → down to ~450 BTC/day.
→ If demand remains the same or increases while supply decreases → prices tend to rise.
2. Market expectations and psychology • Investors know in advance that halving will occur (about every 4 years), and expect that it will trigger a price surge like previous cycles. • This creates a psychological effect of "buy before the price rises", leading to: • Strong accumulation before and after halving. • FOMO (fear of missing out) when prices start to rise quickly → continues to push prices up.
3. Selling pressure from miners decreases • Miners are the group that frequently sells BTC on the market to cover operating costs. • When block rewards decrease: • They hold more, only selling when prices are high. • The amount of BTC "dumped" on the market decreases → reducing supply pressure.
4. Historical post-halving cycle
Previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all led to significant price increases in the 12–18 months following.
5. Stock-to-Flow model • This is a pricing model based on scarcity. • Halving causes Bitcoin's (S/F) ratio to increase → theoretically increasing its value. • Famous KOL PlanB uses this model to predict BTC could reach: • ~$100k–$150k after the 2024 halving. • And could rise to $1 million by the end of the decade.
✅ Conclusion: + Decreased supply → Increased scarcity + Expectation psychology and FOMO + Miners sell less → reduced pressure + Historical cycles and pricing models support price increases => BTC rises sharply.
The Dual Thresholds for Making Money in the Crypto Space: The Game of Technology and Cognition
The core thresholds for making money in the crypto space are only two — technical threshold and cognitive threshold. The former determines whether you can execute strategies, while the latter decides whether you can understand the market.
1. Technical Threshold: From Basic Operations to Proficient Use
1. Basic Operations: The Minimum Ticket for Entry Essential Skills: Registering on exchanges, buying USDT, creating wallets, etc.
2. Cognitive Threshold: Determines Whether You Are the Grass or the Scythe
1. Underlying Logic: Understanding the Voting Mechanism in the Crypto Space True Value Targets: BTC (Digital Gold), ETH (Blockchain Infrastructure), Long-term consensus via monetary voting
Data Speaks: By 2025, BTC's market capitalization will reach $2 trillion, surpassing Meta and Google.
False Hotspot Traps: 95% of Altcoins rely on speculation; a new project with a market cap of $500 million may have less than a thousand daily active users.
2. Advanced Cognition: Earning Money from Cognitive Discrepancies
Early Positioning: Buying BTC before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, hoarding staking coins before ETH upgrades.
Reverse Thinking: DCA during market panic, reducing positions during euphoria.
3. How Can Ordinary People Break the Deadlock? Two Practical Paths 1. Stable Route: Borrowing True Practices for Passive Income from Consensus Dividends
2. Aggressive Route: Borrowing False Practices for Small Capital to Train Cognition
4. Risk Warning: A Hidden Killer More Dangerous than Thresholds
Policy Minefields: Country Z bans trading, the US checks KYC, do not use domestic bank cards to buy coins.
Asset Security: Store large amounts in hardware wallets (like Ledger), choose top exchanges like Binance.
Psychological Defense: Don't go all in! Don't use leverage; even with a 10x gain, someone can still lose. Earn money within your cognitive limits.
The Ultimate Truth:
Making money in the crypto space does not rely on luck, but on executing cognition with technology and using cognition to avoid risks. Beginners should first practice the ability not to lose money before talking about making big profits — after all, surviving until the next bull market is more important than anything else.
The Dual Thresholds for Making Money in the Crypto Space: The Game of Technology and Cognition
The core thresholds for making money in the crypto space are only two — technical threshold and cognitive threshold. The former determines whether you can execute strategies, while the latter decides whether you can understand the market.
1. Technical Threshold: From Basic Operations to Proficient Use
1. Basic Operations: The Minimum Ticket for Entry Essential Skills: Registering on exchanges, buying USDT, creating wallets, etc.
2. Cognitive Threshold: Determines Whether You Are the Grass or the Scythe
1. Underlying Logic: Understanding the Voting Mechanism in the Crypto Space True Value Targets: BTC (Digital Gold), ETH (Blockchain Infrastructure), Long-term consensus via monetary voting
Data Speaks: By 2025, BTC's market capitalization will reach $2 trillion, surpassing Meta and Google.
False Hotspot Traps: 95% of Altcoins rely on speculation; a new project with a market cap of $500 million may have less than a thousand daily active users.
2. Advanced Cognition: Earning Money from Cognitive Discrepancies
Early Positioning: Buying BTC before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, hoarding staking coins before ETH upgrades.
Reverse Thinking: DCA during market panic, reducing positions during euphoria.
3. How Can Ordinary People Break the Deadlock? Two Practical Paths 1. Stable Route: Borrowing True Practices for Passive Income from Consensus Dividends
2. Aggressive Route: Borrowing False Practices for Small Capital to Train Cognition
4. Risk Warning: A Hidden Killer More Dangerous than Thresholds
Policy Minefields: Country Z bans trading, the US checks KYC, do not use domestic bank cards to buy coins.
Asset Security: Store large amounts in hardware wallets (like Ledger), choose top exchanges like Binance.
Psychological Defense: Don't go all in! Don't use leverage; even with a 10x gain, someone can still lose. Earn money within your cognitive limits.
The Ultimate Truth:
Making money in the crypto space does not rely on luck, but on executing cognition with technology and using cognition to avoid risks. Beginners should first practice the ability not to lose money before talking about making big profits — after all, surviving until the next bull market is more important than anything else.
The Dual Thresholds for Making Money in the Crypto Space: The Game of Technology and Cognition
The core thresholds for making money in the crypto space are only two — technical threshold and cognitive threshold. The former determines whether you can execute strategies, while the latter decides whether you can understand the market.
1. Technical Threshold: From Basic Operations to Proficient Use
1. Basic Operations: The Minimum Ticket for Entry Essential Skills: Registering on exchanges, buying USDT, creating wallets, etc.
2. Cognitive Threshold: Determines Whether You Are the Grass or the Scythe
1. Underlying Logic: Understanding the Voting Mechanism in the Crypto Space True Value Targets: BTC (Digital Gold), ETH (Blockchain Infrastructure), Long-term consensus via monetary voting
Data Speaks: By 2025, BTC's market capitalization will reach $2 trillion, surpassing Meta and Google.
False Hotspot Traps: 95% of Altcoins rely on speculation; a new project with a market cap of $500 million may have less than a thousand daily active users.
2. Advanced Cognition: Earning Money from Cognitive Discrepancies
Early Positioning: Buying BTC before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, hoarding staking coins before ETH upgrades.
Reverse Thinking: DCA during market panic, reducing positions during euphoria.
3. How Can Ordinary People Break the Deadlock? Two Practical Paths 1. Stable Route: Borrowing True Practices for Passive Income from Consensus Dividends
2. Aggressive Route: Borrowing False Practices for Small Capital to Train Cognition
4. Risk Warning: A Hidden Killer More Dangerous than Thresholds
Policy Minefields: Country Z bans trading, the US checks KYC, do not use domestic bank cards to buy coins.
Asset Security: Store large amounts in hardware wallets (like Ledger), choose top exchanges like Binance.
Psychological Defense: Don't go all in! Don't use leverage; even with a 10x gain, someone can still lose. Earn money within your cognitive limits.
The Ultimate Truth:
Making money in the crypto space does not rely on luck, but on executing cognition with technology and using cognition to avoid risks. Beginners should first practice the ability not to lose money before talking about making big profits — after all, surviving until the next bull market is more important than anything else.
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When participating in futures trading - especially with highly volatile assets like Bitcoin - managing emotions is the key factor in determining success or failure. Here are the reasons why:
1. Futures have high leverage → Emotions can easily get out of control
• With leverage of 10x, 20x, or even 100x, just a small price movement can lead to significant profits or wipe out your account in minutes. • Emotions like greed when seeing large profits, or panic when the account is in the red can lead to: • Chasing prices when they are pumping. • Cutting losses too early when prices have just slightly adjusted. • Holding onto losses too long, hoping “it will turn around.”
2. Hasty decisions can easily lead to losses
• Unstable emotions can make you: • Not adhere to the trading plan you have set. • Change targets/losses midway because “you feel the price will go the opposite way.” • Engage in revenge trading after a losing trade.
3. Psychology affects analysis
• When you fear losses or are overly optimistic, you will: • Ignore clear technical signals. • Look for reasons to enter trades based on feelings rather than objective analysis.
4. Those who control their emotions will stick to the plan
• Disciplined trading, no FOMO. • Knowing when to cut losses, taking profits reasonably. • Not letting a few winning/loss trades affect the overall long-term strategy.
✅ Ways to practice emotional management:
1. Always set stop-loss and take-profit. 2. Keep a trading journal to recognize bad habits. 3. Do not trade when feeling unstable. 4. Only use capital you can afford to lose.
What truly helps you progress in trading must be painful, because trading is against human nature; anything truly valuable will definitely make you feel uncomfortable.
加密飞龙
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The things that truly help you improve in trading are definitely painful, because trading goes against human nature. Things that are truly valuable will certainly make you feel uncomfortable.
Is learning not painful? Is reading not painful? Waking up early every day to run, deliberately not eating in order to lose weight, isn't that all painful? Someone who makes you exercise more and eat less while trying to lose weight will definitely annoy you because they are making you uncomfortable, right? But the person selling you weight loss pills will make you happy, even though you've spent money, because you don't have to exercise or eat less anymore.
But what can really help you lose weight? Is it the annoying exercise and eating less, or the happy eating of weight loss pills?
The reasoning is the same. I say that the truly valuable things will definitely make you hate me, because I will make you uncomfortable. Although it is good for you, it is not good for me because you are hating me, right? But do you want to suffer while making money, or do you want to be comfortable while losing money?
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Post: $SUI /USDT is trading at $3.7696, barely holding gains after a massive recent pump! Today’s move is just +0.19%, but is this sideways action a sign of strength or exhaustion?
Chart Insights:
🧱 Resistance: $4.00 – price struggling to break above
🩸 Pullback: Down -4.38% from yesterday
🐢 Range Forming: Support at $3.68, consolidation near highs
📉 Volume Dip: Lower buying interest could signal caution
Scenarios:
🟢 Break and close above $4.00 = 🚀 next leg toward $4.40–$4.60
🔻 Drop below $3.68 = possible correction to $3.20–$3.00
Strategy Tips:
📌 Ideal zone: Wait for breakout or dip-buy near $3.50
⏳ Let price confirm the next direction — don't rush!
🔍 Watch for volume spikes or bullish engulfing candles
SUI has shown strength — now it’s testing your patience! Hold steady or take profits? The next move is key!