分析师刀哥

Counterintuitive Thinking in Trading: Top Traders' 8-Year Practical Insights
(Rational Trader's Survival Guide | Recommended for Deep Reflection)
First Law: Counteracting Instinctive Reactions
"Cut losses, let profits run" is a century-old creed on Wall Street, yet 90% of retail investors do the opposite:
Human Instinct: Eager to secure profits when in the green (dopamine stimulation), but stubbornly holding onto losses in anticipation of a reversal (loss aversion)
Professional Solutions:
Set dynamic take profit: After a profit exceeds 5%, move the stop loss to the break-even point
Mechanical stop loss discipline: Exit immediately if a single loss reaches 2% (do not get bogged down by technical levels)
Profit averaging rules: Use the 1-3-5 pyramid model after trend confirmation
Second Law: The Paradox of Fluctuation and Trend
The fatal trap of the Martingale strategy:
Historical backtesting shows: 78% probability of profit in a fluctuating market, but average drawdown in a trending market reaches 300%
Reverse application plan:
When losing: Close positions immediately and reduce the scale of the next position (anti-Martingale)
When winning: Use Fibonacci ratios to scale in (0.382/0.618)
Core Essence: Replace 30% win rate + 3:1 profit-loss ratio with 70% win rate + 0.8:1 profit-loss ratio
Third Law: Cognitive Behavioral Correction
Two major tumors of behavioral finance resolved:
1. Gambler's Fallacy Correction
Misconception: "After losing 5 times in a row, the next win rate is higher"
Fact Verification: Probability of independent events is constant; trading logs are needed to calculate true win rates
2. Profit Phobia Treatment
Psychological Diagnosis: Fear of profit withdrawal stems from a lack of self-identity
Solutions:
Set up three-tiered take profit (break-even line/benchmark line/excess line)
Transfer 20% of profits to a separate account
Ultimate Insight: Expectation Management Model
Establish a three-dimensional evaluation system:
Spatial Dimension: Maximum drawdown in a single day < 2% of total funds
Temporal Dimension: Continuous loss period does not exceed 7 trading days
Energy Dimension: Trading frequency is inversely proportional to market volatility
(The true art of trading lies in using a system to counteract human weaknesses)
This version:
Removed specific investment product implications
Replaced motivational speeches with behavioral finance
Emphasized risk control rather than temptation of windfall profits
Provided quantifiable execution standards
Eliminated all attention-grabbing rhetoric
Further adjustments can be communicated for specific directions.
#波段交易策略
#X超级应用转型
#鲍威尔发言

Why are big companies starting to buy Solana like crazy?

In the past, big companies hoarded Bitcoin because it was considered "digital gold"; later, they bought Ethereum because it could earn staking rewards. Now, they're eyeing Solana - but this time it's different.

Solana is not for hoarding, it's for using.
Faster speeds, lower costs: transactions are quicker than Ethereum, and fees are almost zero, making it suitable for real-world commercial applications.

Staking is just the beginning: big companies are not satisfied with just earning interest; they are running their own nodes, earning commissions, and even moving their businesses on-chain.

Betting on the future of finance: stocks, bonds, and real estate could all be on Solana, and getting in early is a bet on an entire industry transformation.

Risks? Of course there are.
SOL's price is highly volatile; don't play if you have a weak heart.
Regulations could change at any time.
A heated market might have bubbles.

But real players don’t care about short-term fluctuations; they are betting on Solana becoming the next generation of financial infrastructure.

What should ordinary players do?
If you believe in the technology, you can position yourself for the long term.
If you only want to trade short-term, be careful not to be left holding the bag.

Remember: High returns always come with high risks.
The story of Solana is just beginning, but only those who last will laugh in the end.

Follow Dao Ge for more information
04286419350
18913786781
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股

Using the method I provided, even beginners can successfully acquire a Panamera. A ten-year veteran will teach you life-saving tricks!

I used to lose sleep over my losses, but now I earn a stable 50%+ every year, thanks to these simple methods:

1. The Fidgety Hand Principle
If the market hasn't shown the patterns I've practiced a thousand times, I'd rather scroll through Douyin than place an order.
Just like playing Mahjong, I absolutely won’t play with tiles that can’t win!

2. Night Owl Strategy
The market is erratic during the day, with all sorts of fake news popping up.
After 9 PM, the market makers have finished dinner, and the trends reveal their true forms.

3. Take a Bite of the Meat in Front of You
Earned 1000U? Immediately transfer 300 to your bank account! The rest can be played with however you like.
I’ve seen too many people earn enough for a Panamera but don’t stop, and end up losing even their bicycles.

4. Install a "Monster Detector" on Your Phone
Download TradingView, and before placing any orders, you must check three indicators:
MACD golden cross and death cross (the two lines crossing)
RSI overbought and oversold (above 70/below 30)
Bollinger Bands narrowing and widening

5. Stop-Loss Should Be Like a Magic Trick
When sitting at the computer, play "Mobile Castle": earn 100U and raise the stop-loss line by 50U, repeating this process.
Going out to walk the dog? Set a hard stop-loss at 5%, not worried even if the market maker crashes the market in the middle of the night.

6. Must Share Profits Every Friday
Whether you earn 10,000 or 1,000, transfer 30% to your bank account at exactly 3 PM every Friday.

7. Watch K Lines Like Watching a Drama
If you want to earn quick money, focus on the 1-hour chart; two consecutive bullish candles indicate a constipation market (sideways).
Switch to a 4-hour chart to find support levels, just like finding restroom signs.

8. These Pits Are Deadly
Leverage over 10 times = seeking death (newbies are advised to start with 3 times as practice).
Shitcoins and Dogecoin are all scythes for cutting leeks.
Place a maximum of 3 orders per day; if you can’t stop like eating sunflower seeds, you’re done for.

Remember:
Blindly gambling is worse than looking for opportunities with your eyes open. Click on my profile to follow, and I will share some early projects in promising sectors, as well as practical strategies that can truly be implemented. The more laid-back you are, the fatter your wallet becomes.
#波段交易策略
#X超级应用转型
#鲍威尔发言

$SKATE Profiteering Sniper Record: Do You Dare to Show Your Skills?

Brothers, did you enjoy this wave of SKATE market?

From high positions to violent plunges, every wave's rhythm is precisely controlled—those without true skills would have been cut down by the market long ago!

Brother Dao's hardcore operation:
Real-time verification, advance warnings for each trade, fans witness it firsthand
Refuse to gamble, only engage in high-probability markets, absolutely avoid the incomprehensible
Long-term profits are not based on luck, but on systematic trading strategies
Urgent notice: the next wave of layout is about to start! Keep up the speed
#波段交易策略
#X超级应用转型
#鲍威尔发言

In addition to buying $UNI , there is another valuable cryptocurrency worth heavily investing in!!!

STX old fans are familiar with it; the lowest in 2023 was 0.8 and the highest shared was 3.85, an increase of nearly 400%. This wave of retracement has once again returned to the low of 2023, and there are already obvious signs of stabilization on the weekly chart. The current price of 0.62 is a good entry point; you can buy in batches as it dips by 10-20%. In the past few days, the Bitcoin ecosystem BCH T has shown strong performance, with funds clearly flowing into the Bitcoin ecosystem, so just follow the trend to build your position.

$STX several points worth noting

1: The first SEC-compliant project in U.S. history

2: Contributing over 90% to the Bitcoin ecosystem, with a high market share

3: Grayscale Trust Fund

4: Released a new roadmap last month, driving the value growth of the STX ecosystem and STX itself

These are the key points to focus on regarding STX, which can be used as a reference. Also, BABY, which just launched this year, is worth keeping an eye on (STX is stable, while BABY is aggressive and has larger fluctuations). Creating is not easy; remember to like and follow. If you have questions, feel free to leave a comment for discussion. #STX #鲍威尔发言 #以色列伊朗冲突

$SEI One Dan connects One Dan, collect U every day!!!

Still confused? Why not get on board and enjoy the rewards together, there are not many spots available!!!
#波段交易策略 #X超级应用转型 #鲍威尔发言

Seeing a bunch of noobs shouting "5x leverage is as steady as an old dog", I almost spat out my breakfast laughing.

Do you really call this "steady"? Open 5x leverage with 10,000 USDT, and if the market shakes a bit, your account goes straight to the crematorium. This isn’t trading; this is a suicidal charge.

Do you know what the harshest truth about the contract market is? This isn’t a casino; it’s a slaughterhouse. Every penny you earn is blood spilled when someone else gets liquidated:
In a bull market, the ones getting slaughtered are those stubborn short sellers.
In a bear market, it’s the foolish longs who bought at the ceiling.
In a volatile market, it’s the poor souls who can’t even pay the fees.

But the premise is—your life has to be tougher than theirs.
True experts are like scorpions in the desert; they can lie dormant for months, waiting for their prey to come to them. They spend 80% of their time waiting, and in the remaining 20%, they strike decisively.
Still dreaming of getting rich overnight? Wake up; this market isn’t about who makes money fast, but who dies slow.

Daily life of a rookie:
"Just hold on a bit longer, I’ll definitely break even" → Result: directly buried in the graveyard.
"This time it’s definitely safe" → Next second: assets go to zero.
Expert's moves:
"Can’t see through it? Then don’t play."
"Opportunity hasn’t arrived? Then wait."
Remember these three iron rules to ensure you don’t die:
No single trade should exceed 10% of your capital—over-leveraging guarantees death.
Cut losses at 5%—hesitate for a second, and the coffin lid will be nailed down.
Controlling your hands is more important than skill—those who fidget die the fastest.

Those who can’t even set a stop loss don’t deserve to survive in this market. Here, living long is the real deal.

This market changes every day; you have to strike at the right moment. If you’re still too confused, you can follow me; I’ll share some cutting-edge information and practical strategies regularly. Feel free to discuss anytime and let’s seize the big opportunities together!
#X超级应用转型
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股

周五行情分析及操作思路：

早间市场延续区间震荡格局，$BTC 与$ETH 走势趋同，波幅有限未现明确趋势。

四小时级别显示，行情早盘连续下探收阴后止跌回升，走出V型反转。当前虽上行节奏缓慢，但低点持续抬升，趋势偏多。价格于四小时图中枢附近波动，小幅回调属正常技术修复。

目前市场上行动能充足，正处于震荡蓄力阶段，等待突破区间打开空间。鉴于当前横盘整理态势，刀哥建议采取高抛低吸策略短线操作，波段吃肉。

操作思路：
#以太 ：区间位置2520-2500多单进场，第一目标2555，突破压力位看2585

日内有位置进场，刀哥会第一时间通知，想要吃肉的，可以点赞+关注。
#以色列伊朗冲突
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股

$BTC $ETH Powell's speech sets the tone of 'wait-and-see' stance, cryptocurrency market reacts calmly

In the early hours today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a policy speech, the core content of which can be summarized in three key points:
Policy stance is neutral and somewhat cautious
Maintains the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in 2024
Neither released a stronger dovish signal nor shifted to an aggressive hawkish stance
Emphasizes a data-dependent approach, ruling out preset policy paths

Clarifies two major observation windows
① Key date on July 9
The expiration of the tariff suspension on China during the Trump administration
Need to observe the trade policy direction of the Biden administration
② Geopolitical risks
Focus on the evolution of the U.S.-Israel-Iran triangle relationship
Assessing the potential impact of the Middle East situation on the U.S. economy

Analysis of the impact on the cryptocurrency market
The market has fully priced in existing expectations
Lack of breakthrough catalysts in the short term

Advice for investors:
Pay attention to the two major policy observation points above
Maintain moderate position flexibility
Avoid overinterpreting technical fluctuations

The current market has entered a policy observation period, and investors are advised to focus on the key time window in early July, while closely monitoring the impact path of the evolving Middle East situation on risk assets.

It’s better to open your eyes to find opportunities than to close them and gamble, follow for updates, and I will share some early projects in potential sectors, as well as practical strategies that can really be implemented.
#鲍威尔发言
#以色列伊朗冲突
#加密概念美股

Ethereum $ETH continues to flow in but the price does not rise, there may be several reasons:

ETF inflow ≠ Institutional buying
The sources of funds for ETFs are complex, including retail investors, arbitrageurs, market makers, etc., and it does not necessarily mean that institutions are buying.

Institutions may have already accumulated at low prices
Large institutions may have purchased ETH off-exchange in advance and then transferred it to the ETF custody address, creating the illusion of "new funds entering the market," while the actual buying was completed earlier.

Market sentiment and hedging strategies influence
Some investors may be shorting ETH to hedge risks, or institutions may use ETF inflows to cover their spot market sell-offs.

Short-term capital inflow ratio remains low
The trading volume of Ethereum ETFs only accounts for 1.5%-2.5% of the market, which has a limited impact on prices.

Long-term may still rise
If funds continue to flow in (such as over $800 million in June), it could eventually drive up ETH prices, but it requires time to digest market sentiment.

Conclusion: ETF inflows are a positive signal, but short-term prices are affected by multiple factors, and the long-term outlook remains optimistic.

The market changes every day, and you need to seize the right timing to act. If you are still too confused, you can follow me, as I will regularly share some cutting-edge information and practical strategies. Feel free to come and discuss at any time to seize great opportunities together!
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股
#以色列伊朗冲突

Good evening, brothers $SKATE

Today's benefits are online

Short tonight, collect U tomorrow

It's true and not fake at all

Brothers who want to get on board, hurry up and get on

Benefits are not available every day, seize the opportunity

We have already led our fans to profit from this coin many times

#鲍威尔发言
#GENIUS稳定币法案
#以色列伊朗冲突
#我的交易风格

#BID violent surge against short sellers!

Bullish nuclear-level explosion! The graveyard of bears has grass three meters high!

Fee -2%? The operator sneers: I've given you the coffin capital!

The market directly takes off violently, and the short positions explode into the sky!

Warning: The operator's surge is like a mad dog, and the crash is even more like the King of Hell demanding lives!
(At this moment, bottom fishing ≈ licking blood on the knife's edge, chasing highs ≈ picking chestnuts from the fire)
#我的交易风格
#币安Alpha上新
#鲍威尔发言

Early morning, the Federal Reserve issued four warnings that shook the market! The stock market changed instantly, retail investors beware of being trapped!

In the early morning, the Federal Reserve truly made a big noise, issuing four warnings in quick succession, this operation is too rare!
The Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, but as soon as this warning came out, the U.S. stock market immediately wilted. The S&P 500 index was once breaking through the 6000-point mark, but by the end of the day, it fell directly below that.

First, let's talk about the first warning, the inflation warning. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell unexpectedly stated that tariffs would drive up prices, and this impact might continue. In the past, he avoided discussing tariffs, but this time he rarely expressed his stance. To put it simply, the cost of tariffs ultimately falls on the public; when prices rise, our lives become more difficult.

Next, let's look at the second warning, the Federal Reserve has reduced the number of interest rate cuts for next year. The official statement is that there will be two rate cuts this year, but only one next year. Moreover, the number of officials who believe the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year has increased from 4 to 7, showing serious internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve; either two cuts or simply no cuts. The Federal Reserve's policy is truly unpredictable, how can investors not be anxious?

The third warning is even scarier, the economy may experience mild stagflation. Economic forecasts indicate that GDP growth will slow down this year, the unemployment rate will rise, and inflation will be even higher. This monetary policy will be difficult to handle, caught in a dilemma.

The final warning, Powell himself admitted, "I have never seen such a combination of tariffs + geopolitical issues + inflation," making predictions extremely difficult. Once the market heard this, it knew that the Federal Reserve would not act lightly. But what the market fears most is this uncertainty; investors feel insecure, which makes them more cautious in their investments.

The market trends after the Federal Reserve meeting usually manifest the next day because the market needs time to digest this information. Don’t be fooled by yesterday's market close, which seemed uneventful; in fact, a trend has been brewing in the background. These four warnings from the Federal Reserve are like four time bombs, and it’s unknown when they will explode the market. Retail investors should be cautious to avoid being caught off guard when the explosion happens.
#加密概念美股
#鲍威尔发言
#我的交易风格

A monthly profit of 8500u, you can do it too!!!

Plan your trades, trade your plan

In the noisy market, maintain inner peace.

Think independently, do not be drowned out by the noise.

Trading is a practice with oneself.

Overcome greed, conquer fear, and achieve unity of knowledge and action.

#我的交易风格 #UNI

Keep up with the rhythm 👇👇👇 you can too!!!
#鲍威尔发言
#币安Alpha上新
#以色列伊朗冲突

Newbie's Three-Line Strategy in the Crypto World: A Robust Profit Strategy Under Moving Average Discipline

In the high-volatility realm of the cryptocurrency market, simplifying trading strategies is often the first essential for survival. This article will break down a three-dimensional trading system based on moving averages to help beginners establish sustainable trading discipline.

Core Tools:
5-day Moving Average (Attack Line) - Short-term Trend Filter
15-day Moving Average (Decision Line) - Medium-term Momentum Indicator
30-day Moving Average (Lifeline) - Bull-Bear Divide

Trend Identification Phase
Only select targets with three moving averages in a bullish arrangement (5 > 15 > 30) and diverging upward
Consider the 30-day line's slope below 15 degrees as a consolidation phase, maintain a wait-and-see approach
Weekly level must simultaneously show trend confirmation (filter out false signals)

Stepwise Position Building System
First Position (30%):
Price breaks above the 5-day line and RSI(14) < 65
Trading volume must reach over 120% of the 20-day average
Set a 3% stop-loss at the day's low
Second Position (30%):
Confirm stability above the 15-day line for more than 24 hours
MACD histogram continuously expands for two days
Move stop-loss up to 1.5% below the 5-day line
Third Position (40%):
A breakout of the 30-day line must be accompanied by weekly confirmation
Volatility Index (VIX) below the monthly average
Total position not exceeding 15% of capital

Dynamic Exit Mechanism
Warning Signals:
Top divergence occurs (new price high while RSI declines)
Three consecutive days of volume-price divergence
Volatility surges over 30%

Stepwise Profit Taking:
Reduce position by 50% if the 5-day line is breached
Reduce another 30% if the 15-day line is lost
Clear out position if the 30-day line is broken
Retain 10% of the position for trend tracking (set mobile stop profit)

Risk Control Module
Maximum risk exposure per asset < 5%
Black Swan Response: Activate overall market stop-loss immediately if any trading day falls more than 15%
Monthly maximum drawdown limit (suggested 8%)
This system requires:
Real-time monitoring via exchange data API
Multi-time frame validation (4-hour/daily/weekly)
Market sentiment indicators to assist in judgment

This market changes daily; one must seize the opportunity to act. If you are still too confused, you can follow me. I regularly share some cutting-edge information and practical strategies. Feel free to discuss anytime and let's seize the big opportunities together!
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股
#我的交易风格

3-Minute Quick Guide: Full Position vs. Partial Position: How Your Hard-Earned Money is Being Harvested?
(Newbie Must-Read Series)
Get Rich or Get Liquidated? Choosing the Wrong Mode Leads to Immediate Loss

Partial Position Mode: The Extreme Art of Treading on the Edge of a Blade
• Your margin = a single chip on the gambling table, if it blows, you only lose the money for this round
• Fancy Moves: Opening both long and short positions for hedging, the art of mutual fighting (but be careful not to hit yourself)
• Maximum Advantage: You can still cry in your underwear when liquidated, while other funds remain safe
• Suitable for: Precise Contract Assassins / Hedging Maniacs
$BTC
Full Position Mode: Casino VIP All-In Night
• All funds in the account = life stakes, win and enjoy the perks, lose and go back to work
• All positions share the health bar, maximum resistance to fluctuations but the consequences of liquidation are more brutal
• Greatest Temptation: Big funds hold positions like a magic tool (but could be your coffin money)
• Suitable for: Spot Traders Hedging / Long-term Gamblers with a Prophetic Touch

Bloody Truth:
Xiaoming vs. Xiaohong each starts with $2000 long position with 10x leverage
Partial Position Xiaoming: Liquidation Price $8000 (losing $1000), still has $1000 left to buy instant noodles
Full Position Xiaohong: Liquidation Price $7000, seems to hold on longer... but a drop below means straight to the rooftop
$ETH
Ultimate Bold Statement:
• Full Position = Putting your life savings on Russian Roulette
• Partial Position = Survival Technique of Diversified Betting in the Casino

Death Warning:
Newbies are advised to first open a "Partial Position Experience Card", old hands using full positions must remember —
"If you don’t control your positions, liquidation will bring two lines of tears"
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股
#以色列伊朗冲突

This market changes every day, you must be precise in timing before taking action. If you’re still too confused, feel free to follow me; I regularly share cutting-edge news and practical strategies. Welcome to discuss and seize big opportunities together.

This is what Knife Brother often says about "small investment, big return" essence of Danzi——the key point must be a one-hit kill!

Real hunters understand:
1️⃣ Must wait for the strategic position to take shape, bring good stop-loss layout
2️⃣ Refuse to open positions frequently, sometimes waiting a week is for that one opportunity to strike a fatal blow

Brothers, look at FHE's operation this time:
From opening a position to waterfall, perfectly three hours
Precise sniping directly multiplies several times
What we want is this kind of practical strategy
(The steel fans all know, Knife Brother's strategy is worth the wait, isn’t it nice to earn several thousand U in one trade?) #鲍威尔发言 #交易艺术 #我的交易风格

$BTC $ETH Doing the opposite in trading, have you ever thought about what the outcome will be?

First: No matter how the market is, always fully invested, heavy positions in every trade!!!

Second: Even when losing money, stubbornly holding on, no matter how much it falls, just holding on, believing it will come back up!!!

Third: Trying to catch the bottom in a downtrend, wanting to buy at the lowest point!!!

The above three points are known as the three-part series of margin call, so conversely, you should know how to make money. Most people hold onto half of their losing trades, while they run away as soon as they see a profit!!!

Now think about it the other way around, for example, if you cut losses quickly and hold onto profits, you can turn the risk-reward ratio into small losses and large gains.

In fact, avoiding the three-part series of margin calls, flipping your account in a week is not a difficult task.

If you are currently in a losing period, trapped in a low point in life, don’t be afraid of the skills you have, they were all developed during times of economic hardship, and the flaws you possess were cultivated during times of wealth and prosperity.

You gain skills during suffering and develop flaws during enjoyment; only those who have truly experienced low points can understand this saying.

I will build your trading system from scratch to completion, adhering to trading rules every day, week, and year. Don’t be disturbed by others' analyses; ignore trades that don’t meet your system's standards, and repeat the same trades over and over again. This is the essence of trading!!!

Blindly trading alone will never bring opportunities, click on the profile and follow me; I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier resources!
#鲍威尔发言
#加密概念美股
#以色列伊朗冲突
#我的交易风格

$RAY 早间上线交易所，短时暴涨28%！

目前不建议追涨，【利好兑现即利空】，可等反弹一波，高位做空。（轻仓）

铁子们。想这种上线交易所以及新币上线，基本利好消息一出，等市场稀释完，做空就行了，前面$SPK 新币上线，昨天已经带粉丝进场，spk现价0.465，盈利15%。可以中长线持有。铁子们也可以参考一下。

RAY刀哥会找位置干他一波，想要跟上的，可以滴滴

$ETH 已布局进场，现价2530空单进场，目标看2475，止损2570

闭眼梭哈不如睁眼找机会，点头像关注，我会分享一些潜力赛道的早期项目，以及真正能落地的实战策略。
#加密概念美股
#鲍威尔发言
#我的交易风格