TraderCriptoBR

It's surreal that Binance is removing $ALPACA, a coin with so much potential, while failed projects like LUNA and FTT remain listed. What a reversal of values!

There are three cryptos that are giving me constant returns: Nexo, Virtual, and Sui. I find Nexo very promising, truly amazing. It hardly fluctuates, so it doesn't experience those ugly drops like Sui sometimes does. As for Virtual, I sold half today because it will likely crash soon.

A war between India and Pakistan, two important countries that possess nuclear weapons, is about to start. Will the market crash again? Maybe it's time to close positions and invest in PAXG (gold).

Guys, I did the following calculation: I compared how much % the 7-day moving average (MA7) is above or below the 35-day moving average (MA35) in the daily chart.

My interpretation is as follows:

If the MA7 is above the MA35, it's good, indicating an upward trend.

However, if the difference is too large, it may be a sign that the rise is already stretched and close to a reversal.

Therefore, the ideal would be to look for cryptos with the MA7 above the MA35, but with a smaller difference — that is, a more "healthy" rise. Among the best options are ETH, BNB, XRP, and TRX, in that order.

Here are the results I calculated for 30 cryptos:

alpaca: 110.95%
turbo: 75.21%
pengu: 38.57%
fis: 34.46%
tao: 31.54%
sui: 28.51%
bonk: 28.13%
trump: 27.31%
crv: 16.87%
pepe: 15.76%
pol: 14.93%
sol: 13.85%
bch: 11.21%
pendle: 10.10%
btc: 9.02%
hbar: 7.60%
shib: 7.14%
doge: 5.99%
ada: 5.18%
paxg: 4.69%
nexo: 3.77%
ltc: 3.44%
trx: 2.92%
xrp: 2.83%
bnb: 1.34%
eth: 1.16%
apt: -5.04%
bmt: -6.21%
dexe: -8.61%
vib: -16.79%
om: -86.50%

Market on Fire!
These are trending up:
FET, BTTC, TRUMP, WLD, VIRTUAL, BONK, PEPE, ZRO, RAY, IOTA, FLOKI!

Watch out!
These are trending down:
SUI, BCH, TAO, PENDLE!

Keep an eye out and seize the opportunities!

$TRX
Golden crossover (MA50 / MA200) on the 1h chart.

Periods of strong rise generally end with a major crash, resulting from excessive optimism, leverage, and profit-taking.

How the cycle works:

The crypto market tends to follow cycles marked by euphoria and correction:

1. Gradual rise driven by fundamentals (such as halving or adoption).

2. Massive euphoria, with new investors entering due to FOMO.

3. Historical peaks, with record volume and accelerated appreciation.

4. Rapid decline, caused by mass selling and liquidations.

5. Bear market, with prolonged devaluation.

Historical examples:

- 2017: after BTC reached $$ 20.000, there was a crash of more than 80%.

- 2021: the peak near $$ 69.000 was followed by a drop to $$ 15.000 in 2022.

Altcoins generally fall even more — by up to 90% or more.

Factors that fuel the crash:

- Profit-taking by whales and institutional investors.

- Liquidation of leveraged positions.

- Fear spreading among novice investors.

- Negative news amplifying the panic.

Summary:

After significant rises, the market usually undergoes a severe correction, a natural part of the crypto cycle. Those who understand the cycles avoid buying at the top and prepare to accumulate during the declines.

The Fear & Greed Index helps predict trends by measuring the overall sentiment of investors in the crypto market.

How it works:

It analyzes several factors, such as volatility, volume, Bitcoin dominance, social media, and searches. The result is a score from 0 to 100:

- 0 to 24: Extreme Fear

- 25 to 49: Fear

- 50: Neutral

- 51 to 74: Greed

- 75 to 100: Extreme Greed

Why it is useful:

- Extreme fear usually occurs at bottoms, when many have sold and the price may be about to rise.

- Extreme greed appears at tops, when the market is overheated and vulnerable to corrections.

Practical application:

Contrarian investors use this index to do the opposite of what most are doing:

- Buy in extreme fear

- Sell or reduce risk in extreme greed

Summary:

The Fear & Greed Index does not predict the market with absolute accuracy, but it is a valuable tool for understanding the emotional climate of participants and making more rational decisions.

Can China Drive Bitcoin Down to $40,000? New Alert Worries the Market

As Bitcoin tries to stay above the support zone of $80,000, an alert from analyst Leviathan is causing a stir in the crypto community. In a post on platform X, he claims that China is planning to sell its BTC reserves — which could drive the price down to $40,000.

Despite the official stance against cryptocurrencies, Chinese authorities are said to have found a loophole to profit from confiscated Bitcoins. According to Leviathan, this is a "subterranean fiscal strategy," operating amid legal ambiguity.

Currently, the Chinese government holds about 194,000 BTC, making it the second-largest state holder, behind only the USA. If this move actually happens, the impact on the market could be massive.

Stay alert: this could just be the tip of the iceberg.

Good evening, friends!

Here is my price forecast for the main cryptos in the coming days. If the cell is green, it means a bullish forecast; if it is red, it is a bearish forecast, and the higher the number, the stronger the expectation.

Remember that the forecast may not materialize. Do your own research before making decisions!

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday: Most cryptos are down, but Solana has a bullish forecast on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Over the weekend, a bullish expectation, especially for FET, with Solana going in the opposite direction and declining.

Monday (the 28th): Slight correction, but for Doge and Decentraland (MANA), the forecast is bullish.

🚨 The 7 Signs of a Collapse in the Crypto Market (with Real Examples)

Abrupt drops of 80%, 90% in minutes do not happen out of nowhere. The market usually gives clear signals before a collapse. Here are 7 alerts — with examples — to avoid being caught by surprise:

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1. Exaggerated and Rapid Rise
Example: Terra (LUNA)
Before its collapse in 2022, LUNA rose thousands of % in a few months without solid fundamentals. When the UST ecosystem broke, the price plummeted nearly 100%.

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2. Whale Concentration
Example: FTX Token (FTT)
In 2022, few investors held vast amounts of FTT. When FTX collapsed, the token fell more than 90% within days.

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3. Low Liquidity in the Books
Example: Bitconnect (BCC)
During the 2018 collapse, there were no buyers in the order book. A mass sell-off was enough for the price to go to zero in minutes.

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4. Euphoria on Social Media
Example: SafeMoon
In 2021, extreme hype and “to the moon” dominated Twitter. After the initial profits were realized, the token violently plummeted.

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5. Uncorrected Rises
Example: Squid Game Token (SQUID)
Shot up 75,000% using the name of the Netflix series without authorization. Soon after, the developers “slipped away” and the price reached nearly zero.

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6. Doubtful News and Announcements
Example: Verge (XVG)
In 2018, they announced partnerships with major adult sites (like Pornhub) that never materialized. The pump in price was followed by a dump shortly after.

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7. High Volatility
Example: MANTRA (OM)
In the days leading up to the collapse, the token experienced violent fluctuations (sharp rises and falls), and, on a Sunday, it dropped 90% in minutes.

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⚠️ Conclusion:
Cryptocurrencies rarely fall without warning. If you identify 3 or more of these signs at the same time, sound the alarm and protect your capital before it's too late.

Crypto Winter Signals

In a healthy market, it is normal to see some cryptocurrencies rising while others fall. But when many coins at the same time are hitting new highs and lows in opposite directions, this can indicate that the market is unstable and disorganized — a sign that a major drop may be approaching.

For this alert to really stand out, two factors tend to repeat:

A high number of cryptos need to be hitting new highs and lows at the same time, above a threshold (for example, more than 2.8% of the analyzed coins).

The market needs to be above the average of the last 50 days, meaning it is still in an upward trend before the collapse.

The more times these signals appear in succession and the more coins involved, the stronger the warning: the crypto winter may be near!
$OM
$FTT
$LUNA

Beware of extreme volumes in cryptocurrencies

Although volume generally helps confirm whether the price will continue to rise or fall, there is a special situation that deserves attention: when the volume is extremely high, much above normal — usually 5 to 10 times more than usual during that period.

When this happens, it is a sign that almost everyone who wanted to buy or sell has already done so. The market "runs out of breath," and the price may stop following the path it was on.

This is called exhaustion, and it can indicate a turn in the market. For example:

If the price rises significantly and the volume explodes along with it, this may be a sign that all buyers have already entered the market and that the rise is nearing its end — the price may start to fall.

If the price drops significantly and the volume also surges, it may indicate that all sellers have already sold off the coin and that the decline is ending — the price may start to rise.

This is a signal that many traders use to try to identify the end of a trend, whether upward or downward.
$DF
$PHA
$BIGTIME

Volume analysis is a way of reading the market that observes the number of coins that have been bought and sold over a certain period, to help understand and predict whether the price will continue to rise or fall.

In the world of cryptocurrencies, volume is basically the amount of coins that have changed hands in a specific time — it can be in minutes, hours, or days. The higher the volume, the more people are trading that coin.

This analysis is based on two simple ideas:

High volume: when the trading volume is increasing or reaches a value well above normal, this usually confirms that the price trend (upward or downward) is strong, meaning the movement has strength and can continue.

Low volume: when the volume starts to decrease or is much lower than usual, this indicates that the current trend is losing strength, the market is lacking “excitement,” and the price may start to change or remain stagnant.

When the price of a crypto rises and closes near the highest value of the day, and the volume is also high, it shows that a lot of people are buying — the market is strong. When the price closes near the lowest value of the day and the volume is also high, it means that a lot of people are selling — the market is weak.

$XRP
$LDO
$IOTA

BASIC DECISION MODEL FOR CRYPTO FORECAST

1. Historical Price

→ If the current price is close to a known support (previous low)
Then: Likely increase.

→ If the price is close to a known resistance (previous high)
Then: Likely decrease.

2. Trading Volume

→ If the volume increases along with the price rise
Then: Strong upward trend.

→ If the volume decreases while the price rises
Then: Weak trend, risk of decline.

3. Volatility

→ If volatility has been very low for days
Then: Likely price explosion (up or down).

→ If volatility is very high
Then: Unstable market, high risk — wait for definition.

4. Technical Indicators
→ RSI below 30 = Oversold
Then: Buying opportunity.

→ RSI above 70 = Overbought
Then: Sell signal.

→ Short moving average crossing above the long one (e.g., MA 20 > MA 50)
Then: Bullish signal.

→ Short moving average crossing below the long one
Then: Bearish signal.

5. External Events

→ If there is strong positive news (halving, ETF, adoption by a large company)
Then: Likely increase.

→ If there is strong negative news (regulation, hack, ban)
Then: Likely decrease.

Simplified Visual Flow

1. Current price near support?
↳ Yes → Buy.
↳ No → Next variable.

2. Volume increasing with price?
↳ Yes → Confirms increase.
↳ No → Caution, may be false movement.

3. Low volatility?
↳ Yes → Likely explosion. Wait.
↳ No → Unstable market, caution.

4. RSI below 30?
↳ Yes → Buy.
↳ RSI above 70?
↳ Yes → Sell.

5. Positive external events?
↳ Yes → Confirms purchase.
↳ Negative events?
↳ Yes → Avoid buying or sell.

$BCH
$ONDO
$SOL

Some factors that can help in the analysis of a cryptocurrency:

1️⃣ Historical Price — past behavior

Why it influences: Investors look at past patterns (support, resistance, trends). If Bitcoin has risen several times after falling 5%, many people expect it to happen again — this creates a "repetition cycle" and helps predict behavior.

2️⃣ Trading Volume — how much was bought and sold

High volume shows great interest — if the price rises with a lot of volume, it is a sign of strength (it may continue to rise).

If it rises with low volume, it is a weak signal (it may drop soon). Volume is like the "fuel" of the movement.

3️⃣ Volatility — how much the price varies in a short time

High volatility = unstable and risky market. When the price fluctuates a lot, investors become more cautious.

Low volatility = calm market, often before a big movement (explosion of rise or fall).

4️⃣ Technical Indicators — such as Moving Average, RSI, MACD

These are calculations based on price and volume, used to predict reversals and trends.
Example:

- High RSI = overbought market, chance of falling.

- Low RSI = oversold market, chance of rising.

- Moving Averages = show the overall trend. If they cross, they signal a change.

Many people use these indicators, so they end up creating a real effect because thousands of traders react at the same time.

5️⃣ External Events — news, regulations, and halving

News, new laws, political decisions, and scarcity events (like halving) change human behavior. For example:

- Halving decreases supply, usually generates a rise.

- Ban in a country drops the price.

- Institutional adoption (like approved ETF) makes it rise.

These variables are not technical; they are emotional and economic — but they directly affect supply and demand.

$BNB
$CRV
$TRX

Psychology and Strategy in Cryptos

The cryptocurrency market is driven by fear, greed, and FOMO, causing many to buy at the top and sell at the bottom.

Recent example: those who bought in November, during the peak, ended up seeing the price fall slowly and sold at a loss. When the market recovers, more buyers will enter at the top, repeating the cycle.

Emblematic cases:

Bitcoin 2017: +20,000% to $3,602,676,253,720, followed by a drop of -80%.

Mantra (OM): +20,000% in 2 years, but a drop of -90% in 10 minutes last week.

Key strategy: take partial profits at highs. This protects against sharp drops and allows one to take advantage of appreciation potential without losing already realized gains.

Bill Gates stated that cryptocurrencies are "100% based on the greater fool theory." This theory is an idea in the financial world that suggests it is possible to make money with overvalued assets — such as real estate, stocks, or cryptocurrencies — as long as there is always someone willing to pay more for them, that is, a "greater fool."

In Gates' view, the value of cryptocurrencies is not based on real assets or cash flows, as is the case with shares of companies that generate profits. Instead, many people buy cryptocurrencies hoping that another buyer will come along later and pay more — not because the asset "is worth more," but because they believe they will find someone even more optimistic (or foolish, according to the theory).

Gates' criticism aligns with his skepticism towards the crypto market, which he sees as speculative and vulnerable to bubbles. He has also expressed concern about the fact that many investors are entering this market without understanding the real risks.

$LTC
$SOL
$XNO