刘有德说币

从1万到10万美金：三个月稳健滚仓指南（实战精要版）
核心原则：用利润冒险，让本金绝对安全
关键数据：2025年实测账户回撤＜15%，年化收益率＞900%

一、滚仓核心：三层防护策略
新手必死陷阱：盈利后立即追加本金投入
正确姿势：
1. 本金保险锁（1万U）
- 首单只用10%（1000U）建仓
- 赚到10%利润（100U）立即提取初始本金

2. 利润加码器
- 每盈利20%，将利润的50%转为新仓位

3. 仓位天花板
- 总投入资金不超过账户总额30%

保命铁律：每笔交易亏损超过100U立即止损

二、资金分配：三账户管理法

| 安全账户 占比50% 抵抗暴跌的盾牌 5000U买比特币现货
| 冲锋账户 占比40% 抓趋势行情 3000U做多BTC合约+1000U买ETH
| 急救账户 占比10% 暴跌抄底专用 1000U现金随时待命
加仓信号：
当比特币周线突破18万U（MA20均线）后，每

Survival rules of top traders: Systematic risk control framework
I. Cognitive foundation
1. The essence of discipline
"The source of excess returns lies not in the accuracy of predictions, but in the control of behavioral error rates — an almost stringent discipline framework is the topological structure for sustained profitability"
2. Risk priority principle
"Risk exposure management constitutes the lifeline of trading, its priority always surpasses the pursuit of profits, and there exists an asymmetric weight relationship between the two"

II. Mechanism construction
Dual decision filtering system
- First layer: Discipline constraint framework (preset trading checklist/position formula/stop-loss threshold)

When trading short-term contracts, the core consideration for selecting targets is usually:
Liquidity & Cost
Volatility & Trading Opportunities
Risk Control & Leverage Management
I. BTC/ETH
Advantages
Deep Liquidity: Perpetual contracts have the highest trading volume, very narrow bid-ask spreads, and low slippage.
Relatively Stable Funding Rates: Funding rate fluctuations are predictable, facilitating long/short arbitrage.
Mature Trading Ecosystem: Major exchanges (Binance, FTX, OKX, Bybit, etc.) have mature quantitative tools and signal support.
Disadvantages
Limited Volatility: Daily price fluctuations are usually around 2-5%, making opportunities relatively 'small' under high leverage.

1. Event Overview
On April 26, 2025, multiple severe explosions occurred near Shahid Rajaee Port in Hormozgan Province, southern Iran, with the explosion center located in the hazardous materials and chemicals container area.
According to reports from the Iranian Red Crescent Society, at least 28 people died and over 1,000 were injured; additionally, three Chinese citizens were lightly injured and have received medical treatment.
Preliminary investigations suspect that the explosion is related to improperly stored missile solid fuels (such as ammonium perchlorate); Iran's Ministry of Defense denies the presence of military materials at the explosion site.
Some Iranian lawmakers and analysts accuse this of being a deliberate attack orchestrated by Israel, aimed at sabotaging the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiation process.

Currently, Powell's term will end in May 2026, and discussions about potential successors have gradually intensified.
Kevin Walsh is seen as a leading candidate to succeed current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and his prospects are influenced by various factors.
✅ Favorable Factors
Favor from the Trump Administration
It has been reported that Trump considered appointing Walsh as Secretary of the Treasury and nominating him as Chairman of the Federal Reserve after Powell's term ends.
Criticism of Federal Reserve Policies and Reform Proposals
Walsh has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's policies in recent years, arguing that they have been overly expansive and deviated from core responsibilities, leading to systemic errors. He advocates that the Federal Reserve should focus on controlling inflation and maintaining financial stability, avoiding involvement in non-traditional areas like climate change.

Maintain a calm mindset in contract trading; the key is to build your psychological defenses throughout the entire process from 'preparation', 'execution', to 'post-review':
1. Preparation: Build a solid foundation for mindset
1. Clarify risk tolerance
Set quantifiable limits for 'maximum single loss' and 'maximum intraday drawdown' beforehand, and never exceed them.
Only use capital that you can afford to lose for leveraged trading, to avoid being overwhelmed by liquidation and loss-related emotions.
2. Create a trading plan
Include specific rules such as entry points, take-profit points, stop-loss points, position sizes, holding times, etc.;

India and Pakistan have triggered a new round of conflict due to an attack on tourists in the Kashmir region, with the situation escalating sharply. This crisis involves multiple contradictions such as territorial disputes, water resource competition, and geopolitical games, with ongoing military standoffs between both sides.
Terrorist attacks have ignited contradictions.

On April 22, a shooting incident targeting tourists occurred in Pahalgam, a town in Indian-controlled Kashmir, resulting in 26 deaths. The Indian government quickly accused Pakistan of supporting the terrorist organization 'Resistance Front' in planning the attack, but did not provide concrete evidence. Pakistan denied any connection and questioned India's self-directed 'false flag operation.'

I. Main ways to open a card
1. On-site account opening in Hong Kong
Advantages:
- Most bank options (HSBC, Standard Chartered, Hang Seng, Bank of China Hong Kong, Citibank, etc.)
- The entire process is transparent, and the card can be received on-site after the interview or mailed immediately
Disadvantages:
- Requires Hong Kong and Macau travel permit and endorsement
- Transportation and accommodation costs
- Appointments are tight, waiting in line
2. Hong Kong branches of mainland banks/overseas branches (e.g., CCB Hong Kong branch, ICBC Asia, etc.)
Advantages:
- Can make appointments or submit materials at mainland branches to reduce trips
- Some banks allow remote registration and in-person interviews upon arrival

Judging from technical indicators, BTC has indeed entered a relatively typical sideways consolidation phase recently, with the following main features:
 
1. Bollinger Bands close
The upper track is about 95,571 USDT, and the lower track is about 92,308 USDT. The bandwidth is gradually narrowing, indicating that market volatility is decreasing and prices are suppressed in this range.
After the closing, it is common to see a period of sideways trading until new news or large transactions bring about a breakthrough.
2. The moving average tends to be flat
MA(7) and MA(30) are currently running at around 94,000 USDT. The short- and medium-term moving averages are glued together and the slope is close to 0, with no obvious upward slope or downward slope.

On the 26th, U.S. President Trump attended the funeral of Pope Francis and had a private conversation with Ukrainian President Zelensky before the service. The two sat face to face in the hall, communicating very closely and with serious expressions.

Afterward, Trump posted on his personal social media, reiterating that he is trying to deal with the mess left by Biden and Obama, and he rare criticized Russian President Putin, saying that Putin may 'not want to stop the war, he is just using me,' and threatened to consider increasing pressure on Russia through bank sanctions and other means.
Today marks the first meeting between Zelensky and Trump since their heated argument in front of global media during Zelensky's visit to the White House on February 28. The two had a 15-minute heart-to-heart talk, and both sides gave a positive evaluation of the meeting afterward, which was very different from the last time.

I. Set stop-loss and capital scale
Before opening a position, it is essential to clearly set stop-loss points to prevent excessive losses caused by sudden market fluctuations.
Stop-loss orders can automatically close positions when prices reach the pre-set levels, thereby limiting potential losses.
II. Capital allocation and risk limits for individual trades
The position for each trade should not exceed 30% of the total capital to avoid overall account risk control failure due to a single large position.
Control the allocation to a single asset by setting position limits to prevent excessive concentration.
Before entering the market, you should also calculate the maximum bearable loss in advance and set stop-loss orders accordingly to ensure the longevity of the account.

One, the internal demand and resilience of mainland China.
China has the world's second-largest consumer market, which can partially offset the impact of export disruptions. The recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party proposed supporting companies and employment affected by tariffs through accelerated special bond issuance and lowering the reserve requirement ratio, as well as promoting the development of the service industry and domestic consumption.
The State Council has also released a 'special action plan', including measures to increase residents' income and establish childcare subsidies, aimed at boosting domestic demand and alleviating consumer confidence issues.
Two, the technological layout and supply chain advantages of mainland China.

In the latest Financial Stability Report released on April 25, the Federal Reserve conducted a comprehensive survey of potential risks to the U.S. financial system for the first time since Trump returned to the White House. The survey results indicated that global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and U.S. debt sustainability ranked as the top three concerns. Additionally, the operation of the U.S. Treasury market, foreign divestment from U.S. assets, and fluctuations in the dollar's value have also significantly risen. Although liquidity in the equity and bond markets is under pressure and emerging vulnerabilities such as credit allocation to non-bank institutions and high leverage among hedge funds are concerning, the overall capital adequacy and resilience of the U.S. banking system remain intact. While the report points out the accumulation of risks, it also emphasizes the stability of certain markets and institutions, providing important references for future policy-making and risk prevention.

1. Clarify risk-reward ratios, rather than blindly pursuing high returns
Beginner's Misconceptions:
"As long as the rate of return is high enough, a small loss doesn't matter" (Wrong!)
Strategic Player:
Set a risk-reward ratio of 1:3 or even higher for each trade, ensuring that even with a win rate of only 30%, positive returns can be maintained.
Practical Example:
A senior trader always insists on a minimum 1:4 return ratio, trading 50 times in six months with a net win rate of 28%, accumulating over 60% profit.
2. Automated stop loss + take profit, eliminating human interference
Beginner's Misconceptions:
"First, monitor manually; close positions when it feels right" (Emotions disrupt).

I. Market Capitalization Status: The Crisis of Moving from 'Second-in-Command' to 'Chaser'
As of April 25, 2025, ETH trades around $1,770, with a circulating market capitalization of about $37.87 billion, a staggering 51.7% drop from the peak of $3,668 set on January 14, nearly erasing all gains since October 2023.

Comparing the market capitalization of Bitcoin at $1.98 trillion against Solana's $10.43 billion, ETH's market share has shrunk from 17.4% in 2022 to less than 10%, and it has frequently ranked third from mid-February to the end of March.
If calculated based on the average price in Q2, ETH has declined from $2,150 in February to $1,890 in March, a nearly 12% drop in the central price.

Recently, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that Trump referred to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as the 'main loser', attempting to influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
However, in this war of words with the Federal Reserve, the real loser is not Powell himself, but Trump's successor who will be nominated next year.

On one hand, Trump openly criticizes the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, claiming it has caused a slowdown in economic growth; on the other hand, he warns that if the Federal Reserve does not change its stance, it will have to bear the consequences.
Although this move may attract some voters' attention in the short term, it also leaves a shadow within the bureaucratic system: against the backdrop of the President's public pressure, the new Federal Reserve Chairman may struggle to escape political entanglements.

$SUI
SUI has achieved an astonishing 54% increase over three days, breaking through $3.39, with total contract positions soaring to $1.1 billion, becoming the only project among the top 20 tokens by market capitalization to break through historical resistance in a counter-trend.
1. Technological breakthroughs: The traffic singularity of Meme + AI

The explosion of the SUI ecosystem began with its underlying technological innovations accurately capturing market demand.
1. Gas fee subsidies ignite the Meme frenzy
- Meme coins like LOFI and BLUB saw daily increases of over 100%, with on-chain active addresses surpassing 1.7 million. Their core driving force is SUI's unique **gas fee subsidy mechanism**. This mechanism stabilizes the gas cost per transaction below $0.01 through dynamic subsidies for small transactions, significantly lowering the participation threshold for retail investors and rapidly promoting 'community consensus.'

Russia launched the largest missile and drone attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv to date, resulting in at least 9 deaths. Zelensky ended his visit to South Africa early.

The missile and drone joint attack launched by Russia on the capital Kyiv resulted in at least 9 deaths and 70 injuries.
Just before the attack occurred, Trump stated in Washington that Russia was ready to reach an agreement regarding the war in Ukraine. 'I believe we have reached an agreement with Russia,' Trump said, while also pressuring Ukrainian President Zelensky.
But Zelensky clearly stated that Ukraine will not abandon Crimea as part of an agreement. The two had a heated exchange on social media afterwards.