刘有德说币

Trump celebrated his '100 days in office' at a large rally in Michigan on Tuesday local time, informing supporters of his 'significant economic victories'.
Main Rhetoric: He reiterated that 'the economy is doing well, and will do even better', sharply criticizing the 'radical left' and former President Biden, and accusing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell of 'not fulfilling his duties'.

Core Policies and Achievements Declaration
1. Defense Investment
Promised a record $1 trillion defense budget, announcing on-site that Selfridge Base in Michigan will receive 21 F-15X fighter jets, emphasizing this as a 'bipartisan win' for job security.

Policy Background
- In March, Trump signed an executive order requiring the U.S. Treasury to submit a detailed report within 60 days on the feasibility of establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, deciding whether to include Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, involving the use of tariff revenue and adjusting gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin.

- The Trump administration has significantly shifted its stance on cryptocurrency, gaining industry support in the election, promising regulatory easing and pushing for the U.S. to become a 'Bitcoin superpower,' with policy focuses including:
1. Establishing Strategic Reserves: Plans to include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others in national reserves, with the federal government already holding approximately 200,000 Bitcoins (worth $15.6 billion), and potentially expanding reserves through asset seizures or government purchases in the future.

1. Regulatory Milestone: Approval of XRP Futures ETF
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has ignored the three XRP futures ETFs submitted by ProShares Trust on April 28, allowing them to take effect on April 30—these include the 2x long Ultra XRP ETF, the 1x short Short XRP ETF, and the 2x short Ultra Short XRP ETF. This 'de facto approval' path differs from the direct approval required for spot ETFs and marks a more lenient regulatory framework for contract-based digital asset products.

2. Price and Technical Response
Rapid Surge: Following the announcement, XRP's price rose over 4% within 24 hours, reaching approximately $2.31; it has increased about 10.06% over the past 7 days. Trading volume surged, leading to a significant rise in activity in the short term.

Positive aspects

1. Increased market funds may make the cryptocurrency market a 'funding reservoir': The Fed's interest rate cuts reduce borrowing costs and increase market liquidity. When traditional investment returns in stocks, bonds, etc., decline, funds will seek new directions, and the cryptocurrency market, full of potential, may become a new target.
Historically, when the U.S. implemented loose monetary policies, a large amount of funds flowed into the cryptocurrency market, driving up the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies. If this rate cut materializes, the crypto market may welcome a 'funding frenzy' that boosts market valuations.

2. Investor confidence significantly increases, with many entering the market: The expectation of interest rate cuts signals that the economy will receive more support, and the outlook for risk assets looks better, giving cryptocurrency investors a 'shot in the arm,' allowing those who were previously hesitant due to economic instability to regain confidence and buy cryptocurrencies. Improved market sentiment leads to more active trading and increased transaction volumes, which in turn drives up cryptocurrency prices.

Manufacturing activity is generally slowing down
In April, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 in March to 50.4, marking the lowest point this year, but still above the boom-bust line (50), meaning the industry is still expanding, just at a significantly slower pace;
On the same day, the official PMI also showed a larger decline, indicating that both private and state-owned sectors are digesting the dual impact of slowing orders and cost pressures.

Divergence in new order structure and significant decline in export demand
New export orders saw the largest drop since July 2023, highlighting the direct impact of additional U.S. tariffs and global trade uncertainties on external demand;

Despite Elon Musk's DOGE efforts, government spending actually rose after Trump took office.
Initiation and Background: In August 2024, Elon Musk urged Trump three times during a livestream to establish a 'Government Efficiency Committee' to cut spending; Trump did not heed the advice at the time.
Birth of DOGE: Eight months later, the committee evolved into 'DOGE'—a young engineering team led by Musk, named after the Meme coin, specifically tasked with federal budget cuts.
Layoffs and Department Impact: Within 100 days, the federal workforce fell back to levels seen in the 1960s, with approximately 250,000 civil servants forced to leave (including 112,000 'deferred resignations' and 121,000 direct layoffs). International aid agencies like USAID, the United States Institute of Peace, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation were severely impacted.

The South Korean Ministry of Industry has sent a delegation to Washington this Wednesday to consult with the U.S. Trade Representative's Office on technical details, striving to secure exemptions or more lenient terms for goods such as automobiles, steel, electric vehicles, ship components, and consumer electronics before the Trump administration reinstates tariffs (up to 25%) on July 8.

Previously, Industry Minister An Deok-geun and Finance Minister Choi Sang-hyun visited the U.S. and reached a preliminary agreement; this trip lays the groundwork for subsequent negotiations, which are expected to continue until after the South Korean presidential election on June 3 and the inauguration of the new government.
The two sides have not yet formally entered substantive negotiations; South Korea has also proposed strengthening cooperation in the fields of shipbuilding, energy projects, and reducing the trade deficit, and has requested leniency regarding U.S. non-tariff barriers such as the Jones Act.

Little Trump’s 'Super Rich Secret Club' established in Washington is essentially a gray platform for the exchange of political and business interests, its operational model and potential risks can be summarized as follows:
1. Core Logic of Power and Money Transactions
- Access Mechanism: The $500,000 threshold + recommendation system forms a political donation filtering network, ensuring that all participants are capital groups with clear interest demands.
- Scenario Privilege: Key officials such as the Secretary of State and Attorney General regularly attend, creating a closed loop of 'policymaker - executor - beneficiary.'
- Information Arbitrage: Conversations at energy secretary's cocktail parties may involve undisclosed adjustments to environmental standards, and the FBI deputy director's casual chats may hint at regulatory focus areas.

Legislative Progress
The Arizona legislature passed the (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act) and (Digital Asset Strategic Reserve Fund Act) in the third reading in the House on April 28, with a vote of 31 in favor and 25 against.
The two bills have now been submitted to Governor Katie Hobbs for review. She previously threatened to veto all bills due to state budget and healthcare issues for people with disabilities. Whether she can complete the signing or veto by May 6 will determine the final fate of these bills.
Core Breakthrough
Statutory Investment Authority
SB 1025 authorizes 'public funds'—including the treasury and state retirement systems—to invest no more than 10% of controllable funds in virtual currencies, primarily Bitcoin, but also covering other digital assets.

1. Policy Restructuring and a Flood of Executive Orders
- With the Republican-controlled Congress, Trump has issued dozens of executive orders, focusing on stimulating energy production, overturning the 'wokeness' and diversity policies of the Biden era, weakening environmental and electric vehicle targets, and imposing sanctions on universities (especially Harvard) and foreign students.
- Although several executive orders indicate a stance, their actual implementation and substantive effects remain to be seen, and there have already been multiple lawsuits challenging their legality.
2. The Gap Between Promises and Reality
- Prices and Inflation: Inflation has decreased from 3.0% when taking office in January 2025 to 2.4% in March, with Trump claiming 'the inflation issue has been resolved,' but warnings have been issued that his tariff plans could drive prices up instead.

Against the backdrop of escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions, American retail giants like Walmart initially attempted to pass on the new tariff burden to Chinese suppliers. However, following discussions with the Chinese side, their attitude changed. Recently, they have informed Chinese suppliers to resume orders and promised that the U.S. side would bear the tariffs.
Chinese exporters revealed that, affected by the U.S. tariffs imposed in early April, some U.S. importers temporarily suspended orders, leading to a year-on-year decline of over 40% in order volume in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces in April. Following discussions between Walmart, Home Depot, and Trump, signs of order demand recovery have emerged.

1. Corporate strategy adjustment

One, Basic understanding and risk warnings
1. Market characteristics
- High volatility: 24-hour trading, price fluctuations often exceed 10%, leverage contracts can amplify risk by hundreds of times.
- Information asymmetry: Frequent black swan events such as market manipulation, fake news, and project failures.
- Regulatory uncertainty: Significant policy differences across countries may lead to risks such as exchange closures and asset freezes at any time.
2. Participation principles
- Invest only with spare cash: Recommended not to exceed 10% of personal liquid assets.
- Reject FOMO: Do not blindly chase rising prices or panic sell.
- Diversified investment: Avoid investing all in a single cryptocurrency.

1. Introduction and Risk Statement
- Risk Warning: Short-term high-profit rolling operations are challenging, and losses can accumulate rapidly.
- Target Audience: Mature traders who have mastered basic technical analysis, are familiar with leveraged trading tools, are highly disciplined, and can strictly execute stop-loss plans.
- Psychological requirements: Adhere to the motto of "able to lose, able to win; stop-loss first, discipline paramount", and avoid "gambling on luck".

2. Core Elements of the Strategy
1. Compound Thinking
- Reinvest every profit into the next round of trading to achieve the effect of "profit reinvestment, snowballing effect".

Incident background and timeline
Beginning of the month: The U.S. imposed 'reciprocal' tariffs on certain Chinese goods.
Subsequently, multiple foreign media reported that major Chinese airlines began to suspend receiving the originally scheduled American-made Boeing passenger aircraft.
April 24: A Boeing 737 MAX originally scheduled for delivery to China International Airlines flew back to Seattle from Zhoushan; two aircraft originally intended for Xiamen Airlines had previously returned to the U.S.
Thereafter, Juneyao Airlines also confirmed the postponement of receiving the new Boeing 787 series aircraft.
April 29: A spokesperson from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the matter on the official website.

Main content of media reports

Russian President Putin suddenly announced earlier that there will be a ceasefire from midnight on May 8 to midnight on May 11 for three days, and called on Ukraine to join as well. This is the second time he has announced a ceasefire in recent months.

According to Reuters, Putin announced on Monday that the war between Russia and Ukraine will have a three-day ceasefire next month to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II (Great Patriotic War) (German-Soviet War).
The Kremlin stated that the 72-hour ceasefire will start on May 8 and end on May 10, and Russia also called on Ukraine to join the ceasefire.
However, the Kremlin also warned that if Ukraine violates the ceasefire agreement during this period, the Russian armed forces will respond appropriately and effectively.

1. Key points of the report
'Reciprocal' tariff progress
Since the Trump administration announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2, negotiations have been underway with multiple countries, yielding preliminary results.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on CNBC that he has received proposals from about 15-18 important trading partners and is evaluating them one by one.
India may become one of the first countries to sign agreements
Bessent bluntly stated that he expects India to be one of the first countries to sign a trade agreement with the United States.
Previously, Vice President Pence visited India last week, and negotiations made 'substantial progress'.

从1万到10万美金：三个月稳健滚仓指南（实战精要版）
核心原则：用利润冒险，让本金绝对安全
关键数据：2025年实测账户回撤＜15%，年化收益率＞900%

一、滚仓核心：三层防护策略
新手必死陷阱：盈利后立即追加本金投入
正确姿势：
1. 本金保险锁（1万U）
- 首单只用10%（1000U）建仓
- 赚到10%利润（100U）立即提取初始本金

2. 利润加码器
- 每盈利20%，将利润的50%转为新仓位

3. 仓位天花板
- 总投入资金不超过账户总额30%

保命铁律：每笔交易亏损超过100U立即止损

二、资金分配：三账户管理法

| 安全账户 占比50% 抵抗暴跌的盾牌 5000U买比特币现货
| 冲锋账户 占比40% 抓趋势行情 3000U做多BTC合约+1000U买ETH
| 急救账户 占比10% 暴跌抄底专用 1000U现金随时待命
加仓信号：
当比特币周线突破18万U（MA20均线）后，每上涨5%加仓当前仓位的10%

三、90天作战地图
阶段1：安全建仓（第1-30天）
- 等待比特币4小时RSI＜30（超卖信号）
- 开10倍杠杆：1000U本金→实际撬动1万U仓位
- 达到10%盈利立即提取本金

阶段2：精准加仓（第31-60天）
- 当市场暴跌30%（如BTC从18万→12.6万U）
- 动用急救账户1000U抄底
- 反弹15%时卖出50%仓位锁定利润

阶段3：阶梯止盈（第61-90天）

| 22万U 卖出比例30% 突破历史新高时出
| 21.5万U 卖出比例40% 回撤保护点
| 21万U 卖出比例30% 彻底清仓离场

四、血泪教训：三个致命错误
1. 拒绝跟风币
推特热搜前5的币种，仓位不得超过10%
2. 杠杆倍数陷阱
5倍杠杆是安全线（10倍杠杆波动10%就爆仓，5倍能扛20%跌幅）
3. 情绪止损点
设置每日最大亏损额度（建议≤3%）
示例：当天亏损达300U立即停止交易

策略优势可视化：
[模拟资金曲线图]
- 最大回撤：14.7%
- 收益爆发期：第45-75天（抓住2次趋势行情）
- 空仓期占比30%（等待确定性机会）

Survival rules of top traders: Systematic risk control framework
I. Cognitive foundation
1. The essence of discipline
"The source of excess returns lies not in the accuracy of predictions, but in the control of behavioral error rates — an almost stringent discipline framework is the topological structure for sustained profitability"
2. Risk priority principle
"Risk exposure management constitutes the lifeline of trading, its priority always surpasses the pursuit of profits, and there exists an asymmetric weight relationship between the two"

II. Mechanism construction
Dual decision filtering system
- First layer: Discipline constraint framework (preset trading checklist/position formula/stop-loss threshold)

When trading short-term contracts, the core consideration for selecting targets is usually:
Liquidity & Cost
Volatility & Trading Opportunities
Risk Control & Leverage Management
I. BTC/ETH
Advantages
Deep Liquidity: Perpetual contracts have the highest trading volume, very narrow bid-ask spreads, and low slippage.
Relatively Stable Funding Rates: Funding rate fluctuations are predictable, facilitating long/short arbitrage.
Mature Trading Ecosystem: Major exchanges (Binance, FTX, OKX, Bybit, etc.) have mature quantitative tools and signal support.
Disadvantages
Limited Volatility: Daily price fluctuations are usually around 2-5%, making opportunities relatively 'small' under high leverage.

1. Event Overview
On April 26, 2025, multiple severe explosions occurred near Shahid Rajaee Port in Hormozgan Province, southern Iran, with the explosion center located in the hazardous materials and chemicals container area.
According to reports from the Iranian Red Crescent Society, at least 28 people died and over 1,000 were injured; additionally, three Chinese citizens were lightly injured and have received medical treatment.
Preliminary investigations suspect that the explosion is related to improperly stored missile solid fuels (such as ammonium perchlorate); Iran's Ministry of Defense denies the presence of military materials at the explosion site.
Some Iranian lawmakers and analysts accuse this of being a deliberate attack orchestrated by Israel, aimed at sabotaging the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiation process.