木木说币

Whether it is spot or contract, there are K-line charts. Remember these most effective trading tips I have summarized:

Rapid rise and slow fall is shipment,

Rapid fall and slow rise is wash-out.

If the volume does not rise, the top is visible,

If the volume does not fall, the bottom is formed.

If the volume rises, it will definitely fall back,

If the volume falls, it will definitely rebound!

#新币挖矿 #sui #SHIB #WIF

Currently, the fundamentals are in a "window period," meaning there are no new positive developments and no new negative news either. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded from 76,000 to now, increasing by nearly 30%, and there is a gap between price and trading volume, which should theoretically lead to a pullback for adjustment. However, in recent days, every time there has been a pullback, it has quickly been bought back up, and buying pressure above 90,000 remains strong. Moreover, the weekly chart has shown a large bullish candle, indicating strong bullish momentum, with the overall trend resembling a V-shaped reversal.

Currently, many in the market feel that this wave of rebound is almost over, and are choosing to sell and exit, for example, Liangxi has also left. From both the environment and candlestick signals, there are indeed some reasons to think this way, and we have reached a stage where both sides are cursing each other as fools.

The community generally believes: this round of increase is likely not over yet, but it will be a bit tedious going forward—oscillating upwards, with a batch of people getting shaken off at key positions. When the market truly explodes, 90% of people might miss out. So it is advised that everyone stays steady and not easily sell the positions they acquired at low levels, and not get shaken out. When it is truly time to sell at the peak, I will notify everyone.
Currently, market sentiment is slowly warming up, and liquidity is returning. Remember one thing: buy when no one is asking, sell when there is a clamor!

How Retail Investors Are 'Cut' Clean

The funding rate mechanism of ALPACA has become a 'weapon' for the main players to harvest retail investors. Simply put, the funding rate is the fee paid by both long and short positions in the contract market to balance their positions. When short positions dominate, shorts must pay fees to longs. In the ALPACA incident, the exchange shortened the funding rate settlement period to 1 hour, and the rate reached as high as -2%, meaning shorts were 'cut' every hour with no ability to fight back.

Specific operation process:

April 24: Binance announced delisting, ALPACA only dropped 20%, retail investors misjudged the market, and a large number of shorts were taken, with the short ratio rapidly rising to 75%.
Main players pumped the price: within 1 hour, the price doubled, and shorts not only faced liquidation but also had to pay high funding rates. Taking a $100,000 short position as an example, $2,000 must be paid every hour, leading to a daily loss of up to $48,000.
Double blow: The main players controlled the spot market to drive up prices, and shorts suffered dual losses from liquidation and rates, leaving them powerless to recover.
This design of settling every hour with a rate as high as -2% leaves retail investors with no response time, and their funds are quickly drained. The main players earn a fortune from liquidation profits and funding rate income, while the exchange's act of shortening the settlement period raises suspicions of a tacit understanding with the main players and project parties.

#特朗普税改 #阿布扎比稳定币 #Strategy增持比特币

When will the altcoin market start? Two key indicators

For the altcoin market that investors are concerned about, the market consensus points to two major observation dimensions:
1. The "barometer" of Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio: Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio is about 64%, close to the peak of the last bull market (71%). Historical experience shows that when Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio falls from a high level, funds often spill over to mainstream coins and altcoins. The current market is at a critical point: if the Bitcoin ratio drops below 60%, it may signal the start of altcoin season.
2. The "funding hub" role of Ethereum: As the core of the public chain ecosystem, the exchange rate between Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) is an important indicator of market risk appetite. If macro liquidity improves, ETH may become a "transit station" for funds flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins.

#加密市场反弹 #亚利桑那比特币储备 #美股财报周来袭

How to play next?

First is meme big money
Meme has been a tool for getting rich quickly, but it's currently difficult; there are few that break 10 million in market value, and when it reaches 3 million, people will cry 'golden dog'. For now, watching the show or buying main coins like SOL might yield better overall returns than the next round, but continuous observation is key. Waiting for the golden dog to go online is the best option. I believe it will definitely appear; I'm not worried about the casino not introducing new models.

The challenge is whether you have the confidence to continuously capture opportunities. In the past two years, I boldly claimed I could seize every major opportunity, and interestingly, I did. In the future, I hope to continue as before—methodology and continuous iteration are crucial.

Currently, the best on-chain meme tool is Axiom, invested by top Silicon Valley venture capital YC. It can still earn points now, and later when it issues tokens, it will certainly be a big deal. It can also be accessed via mobile website, making it usable.

Second is the big rise of BTC

The small target of BTC reaching 200,000 will happen, but the possibility of going straight up is very low. It needs some leverage, like if the U.S. stock market performs well next year, with hot money flowing into the market, it may gain greater support. However, for me, if it doubles, I will exit first and secure profits.

Third is the opportunities in the stock market

In fact, there are many opportunities in the stock market. For example, Xiaomi rose from 15 to over 50 during such a low period in the crypto market; there's also Bubble Mart, which I didn't buy, that has more than doubled in a year, skyrocketing without mercy; and companies like Pinduoduo in the U.S. stock market, with employees earning 10k-20k, have profits higher than JD.com, Taobao, and even Douyin, yet their stock price remains constrained.

#亚利桑那比特币储备 #加密市场反弹 #AI概念币领跑

In a three-phase bull market, are there significant changes in the fundamentals of the assets? Essentially, the changes are more about the gameplay, but the innovations are not substantial.

Even the TRX in 2017 focused on payments, AAVE in 2020 established lending, and this round's pumpfun surprisingly revolves around blockchain Pvp.

Among these benchmark projects, there are very few highlight or innovative projects this time; projects like Polymarket aren’t even issuing tokens anymore.

So, there is very little real innovation at the core, but from the perspective of asset issuance, everyone has "innovated" many things, such as inscriptions, aiagents, cat-dog-hippo memes, and so on.

#空投发现指南 #AI概念币领跑 #加密市场反弹

One of the most important aspects of the Prague upgrade is the optimization of the staking mechanism.

The maximum staking cap for a single validator has been raised from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, increasing it by a full 64 times.

This upgrade significantly reduces operational costs for institutions, making it more attractive for more institutions to participate, while also greatly increasing the security of staking.

The reason why the SEC has not yet approved the Ethereum ETF staking is also here,

Currently, the number of ETFs held by institutions requires about a month to stake, and it takes about half a month to withdraw. For institutions, this poses a risk because it can't be accessed freely.

However, after the Prague upgrade, several million Ethereum can be fully staked in just one day, and all can be withdrawn in half a day,

Therefore, after the Prague upgrade, it also provided the SEC with a reason to approve Ethereum ETF staking and sparked interest among other institutions to purchase Ethereum ETFs.

Institutions are large funds. With more participating institutions, more purchases, and more staking, the liquidity decreases, which goes without saying for the price of the coin.

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #特朗普税改 #AI概念币领跑 #加密市场反弹

Recently, the $Virtual rebound is obvious. Although their new platform Gensis hasn't released the "Big Golden Dog" yet, from the statements of the Malaysian Little Prince, it seems that the team is indeed continuing to invest resources and effort.

If you already hold $Virtual or are interested, it is recommended to take some time to pay attention to their recent adjustments to the new listing rating mechanism, as I have a feeling there will be good opportunities ahead.

#Strategy增持比特币 #特朗普税改

April 30th is simply the "Judgment Day" for the cryptocurrency world! The U.S. first quarter GDP and core PCE price index both plummeted, and the market directly entered a hellish mode of choosing between two options:

Economic recession? Funds are panicking, rushing into cryptocurrency to seek survival;

Inflation skyrocketing? Dreams of interest rate cuts shattered, assets like Bitcoin are being pressed down!

Now Bitcoin is like a gambler standing at the edge of a cliff, while the main players are secretly making big moves! Perpetual contract rates are plummeting, yet futures positions are surging, clearly indicating that the big shots are stocking up bullets for a stormy showdown! If ordinary players still foolishly rush in, they will be chopped down like chives in no time!

Be careful! These are all the reapers of the market!

When mainstream coins are flat, a bunch of monsters will emerge in the market:
Suddenly soaring "potential coins" are actually the last craziness before the project parties run away;
So-called "mainnet launch" air coins are all schemes to harvest the intelligence tax;
Shanzhai coins waving the banner of "technological revolution" are essentially just money-scheming scripts!
Remember! The big players raising prices definitely do not intend for retail investors to get rich, but rather to find suckers to take over the losses!

#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #空投发现指南 #特朗普税改

ETF Concept: Currently, there are 9 altcoins including SOL, XRP, LTC, ADA, AVAX, APT, SUI, MOVE, TRX,
and 4 Memecoins including DOGE, TRUMP, BONK, PENGU.
Reapproval, DOGE has not risen much yet, worth paying attention to.

#美股财报周来袭 #特朗普暂停新关税

On Wednesday, the US first-quarter GDP and March PCE data will be released. GDP will reflect how well the US economy is performing, and market expectations are very low, only 0.4%. If it exceeds expectations, US stocks and BTC may surge. However, if the data is too poor, the market may correct. The PCE data reflects inflationary pressures, and the tariff increases in March may drive up prices. If PCE rises significantly, the market may panic.

#美股财报周来袭 #币安Alpha积分

The alpaca project may really be a classic operation manual for the dog dealers. Roughly guessing the intentions of the dog dealers, if the alpaca is ultimately delisted, selling the alpaca in the spot market basically has no profit.

In contrast, the best strategy is to strongly control the alpaca price starting from the 30th, creating a certain market panic, and then realizing profits through contract price platform delivery. Next, between the 30th and May 2nd, exit by crashing the market and consuming the remaining value.

If there is a lack of counterpart orders before the 30th, promptly crash the market to attract short-selling, which can guide more people to bet on a collapse. Once there are enough short positions, raise the price again, continue to control strongly, and ultimately complete the contract delisting and delivery operation.

#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #TRUMP晚宴

Currently, the events affecting emotions have narrowed. Over the weekend, liquidity is relatively lower than on weekdays, which is a common topic. This is because the overall performance of the US stock market on Friday was still acceptable. After the US stock market opens next Monday, we will see the economic data at the end of the month, which is currently the most concerning data for the market. It is also a key factor affecting market sentiment. Whether the market can further rise will depend on this data. In terms of market prices, BTC is currently in the range of 94,000-95,000. The resistance above is 96,500-97,500, and the support below is 93,000-92,000. Essentially, we are waiting for new sentiment to maintain a fluctuating direction. At this time, it is recommended to reduce positions if there are some profits. Continuing to hold means betting on the sentiment improving further. This is a personal choice because it is not a reversal at the moment; a rebound trend can easily be volatile. Just don’t hold a heavy position. If you are willing to bet on the sentiment continuing to improve, then hold on. In the case of taking profits, you can slightly reduce your positions.

The performance of ETH in this cycle has been too weak. I never expected the amount of Ethereum I hold would actually not outperform BTC. After the interest rate cut, ETH's future performance will be similar to BTC, with the peak time being a few days later than Bitcoin. The peak will be around $8000 in October 2025, and the overall trend will be linked to Bitcoin.

Strong altcoins will not break the March pullback level again and will continue to break upwards. Weak altcoins will still make new lows during BTC pullbacks. Pay more attention to the following sectors for altcoins: AI, meme, L1, RWA. These sectors are likely to be the main objects of speculation.

If BTC shows a mid-term peak signal in September 2025, apart from BTC, I will liquidate all altcoins including ETH and convert everything into Bitcoin, or invest a small portion in strong coins linked to BTC and specific hot altcoins. I recommend friends to cash out half after selling and keep the other half to position for the next trend.

#币安上线INIT #币安HODLer空投SIGN

No liquidity on the weekend, Saturday's rise and Sunday's drop back?

#Hashdex推出XRP现货ETF #以太坊的未来

BTC has risen by 45% in the past year, while altcoins have averaged a decline of over 60%! Most altcoins from early VC investments, the so-called value coins, have also plummeted! The previous market was characterized by early VC investment promotion, funding, and efforts, followed by acquiring token lock-up quotas and market-making permissions upon listing! This led to a common issue with major VC coins from previous years: minimal circulation early on, high valuations, and continuous harvesting once tokens were listed, as VCs needed to recoup their investments, institutions aimed to profit, and project teams needed to upgrade their vehicles. This has resulted in a significant number of altcoins backed by VCs in recent years performing poorly! VCs entered at low prices, and the lock-up mechanism was originally intended to protect early-stage projects and prevent early investors from dumping large amounts of tokens, causing price crashes. However, data from the past year indicates that this mechanism has exposed primary investors to substantial risks. In the future, over $40 billion worth of locked tokens will be gradually unlocked, which means the market may face greater selling pressure. If new tokens continue to be locked at high valuations, investors may fall into a vicious cycle of 'locking for a year, losing half.' Clearly, this lock-up strategy is no longer suitable for the current market environment.

#特朗普称无意解雇鲍威尔 #币安上线INIT #特朗普暂停新关税

Today is the fourth day of the rise. After BTC and mainstream coins have increased, some overlooked altcoins have started to catch up, such as BSV rising 40% in 24 hours, currently priced at $45.06; ETHW rising 34% in 24 hours, currently priced at $1.93. This pattern of rising rotation has not changed from the past. Once all sectors have rotated, the momentum of this rise will soon wane.

Sadly, ETH has also fallen into the category of junk coins and has begun to catch up. ETH has started to break through its previous high, with a 24-hour increase of 3%, currently priced at $1846.

Today's greed and fear index is 61, indicating a state of greed. This suggests that this rise has rekindled everyone's enthusiasm, and people are starting to feel optimistic.

#币安Alpha上新 #币安HODLer空投SIGN #特朗普暂停新关税

Altcoin price fluctuations are clearly differentiated:

Highly Strong Coins: Those that have recovered half of their decline, such as SUI, TAO, BCH, BNB, PENDLE, MKR, IP
Moderately Strong Coins: Those that have recovered their decline back to prices before mid-March, such as ADA, JTO, AAVE, LINK, RSR, TWT, ENS
Extremely Weak Coins: Those that have not rebounded at all, such as AEVO, ACT, STRK, SATS, BOME, MASK
Based on this simple judgment logic, choose the strong coins you prefer.
Remember, focus on the strong, not the weak. The strong remain strong; concentrate your valuable funds, energy, and time on strong coins.

#币安Alpha积分 #币安Alpha上新 #TRUMP晚宴

May Double-Edged Sword: Risks and Opportunities Coexist

Pay attention to two key moments: The tariff disturbances in early May may trigger a short-term pullback (focus on the $85,000 support level), while expectations for interest rate cuts will officially begin to be speculated in late May.
The smartest strategy right now is: when Bitcoin pulls back, gradually position to capture the cyclical dividends, closely monitor strong sector leaders in altcoins, and decisively swap out weak cryptocurrencies.

Key Turning Point Reminder:
This week's GDP data will break market equilibrium
SEC meeting may become a wind vane for altcoin ETFs
Ethereum's May upgrade + BlackRock's continuous accumulation suggests an independent market is approaching
What we need to do now is not predict the market, but prepare two scenarios: If Bitcoin breaks through the previous high, focus on allocating to mainstream coins that are underperforming; if it tests key support, decisively implement a dollar-cost averaging strategy.
Remember, the real wealth effect often comes from patiently positioning before the market starts, right-side trading may be safe, but sowing on the left side leads to excess returns.
The market is never short of opportunities; what it lacks is sufficient awareness and the courage to bet before dawn.

#特朗普称无意解雇鲍威尔 #币安上线INIT #特朗普暂停新关税