Bit coin路飞
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Occasional Trader
4.6 Years
区块链六年实盘经验，目前主要关注BTC生态，叮叮btc0919 公众号A诺论币
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昨天，Coinbase 宣布计划进军币股交易领域，旨在通过区块链技术为用户提供美股代币化服务。与此同时，Ondo Finance 联合 Solana、Jupiter、1inch 等多家机构，成立“全球市场联盟”，致力于加速传统股票上链，构建代币化证券的合规与流动性标准。 目前，包括 Bybit 在内，已有超过十家交易所和钱包平台明确表示支持或正在布局美股代币化业务。相比传统互联网券商，加密货币应用通常具备更低的注册和资金门槛，这无疑对传统金融行业构成了新的挑战，币股市场的兴起或将重塑投资格局。
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Compound interest is a periodic thing, first the position management must be done well!
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The Federal Reserve interest rate decision at 2 PM tonight, watch for volatility. There will definitely be no interest rate cut this time, and the market should have expectations. The key factor affecting the market is Powell's speech.
Hawkish: Support rate hikes to control inflation, bearish.
Dovish: Support interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, bullish.
Yellow Hair's speech: The Federal Reserve should cut rates by 200 basis points.
Hawkish: Support rate hikes to control inflation, bearish.
Dovish: Support interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, bullish.
Yellow Hair's speech: The Federal Reserve should cut rates by 200 basis points.
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Although the escalation of the situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, the market's expectations for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve have strengthened. JPMorgan has launched institutional-grade 'proof of deposit' on the BASE chain, marking the acceleration of traditional finance's layout in the RWA field, boosting confidence in the crypto market.
Bitcoin investors remain calm, with turnover declining rather than increasing, indicating that most holders are focusing on medium to long-term layouts.
Short-term fluctuations mainly come from:
1. Oil price fluctuations triggered by geopolitical events
2. Expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday
3. Profit-taking by new short-term investors
Bitcoin investors remain calm, with turnover declining rather than increasing, indicating that most holders are focusing on medium to long-term layouts.
Short-term fluctuations mainly come from:
1. Oil price fluctuations triggered by geopolitical events
2. Expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday
3. Profit-taking by new short-term investors
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After the 108400 high point plunder, there was a wave of selling that caused a position swap at 106000, becoming the key point of these two days.
1. Maintaining above 106 will continue to oscillate or rise.
2. Falling below 106 is seen as the end of the rebound, increasing the probability of testing 104 and 102.
Support and resistance situation:
Upper resistance: 108400, 110000
Lower support: 106000, 104200, 102600
1. Maintaining above 106 will continue to oscillate or rise.
2. Falling below 106 is seen as the end of the rebound, increasing the probability of testing 104 and 102.
Support and resistance situation:
Upper resistance: 108400, 110000
Lower support: 106000, 104200, 102600
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In an uptrend, we accurately waited for a pullback to enter 'btc'. The first position is 1065 with a bullish target of 1080, reaching a maximum of 1089 before falling back. There is also close to 2500 points of space, I wonder how much you all made.
Auntie just happened to fall back at the first target, perhaps with a bit of luck involved.
Auntie just happened to fall back at the first target, perhaps with a bit of luck involved.
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When the Trump family appeared in the Tron listing plan, the valuation logic of TRX was rewritten. According to the Financial Times, Tron plans to go public through a merger with Nasdaq company SRM Entertainment. This transaction is led by boutique investment bank Dominari Securities, which has close ties to the Trump family.
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美联储料将在本周的最新决议中维持当前的利率水平不变。市场关注的焦点将集中在美联储是否会释放任何关于未来降息时机的信号。
近期公布的 CPI 和 PPI 数据弱于预期，促使市场参与者提前了对下一次降息时间的预期。货币市场已充分定价今年 10 月降息的可能性，甚至有较大概率会在 9 月就采取行动。
此前，市场普遍预期要到 12 月才会降息。花旗分析师指出，目前市场可能低估了降息的风险。不过，美国加征关税可能会推高通胀，如果以伊之间的紧张局势进一步升级，导致油价继续上涨，这可能会进一步推迟美联储的降息步伐。
安联分析师表示，在通胀高企的背景下，美联储不太可能贸然放松货币政策。
近期公布的 CPI 和 PPI 数据弱于预期，促使市场参与者提前了对下一次降息时间的预期。货币市场已充分定价今年 10 月降息的可能性，甚至有较大概率会在 9 月就采取行动。
此前，市场普遍预期要到 12 月才会降息。花旗分析师指出，目前市场可能低估了降息的风险。不过，美国加征关税可能会推高通胀，如果以伊之间的紧张局势进一步升级，导致油价继续上涨，这可能会进一步推迟美联储的降息步伐。
安联分析师表示，在通胀高企的背景下，美联储不太可能贸然放松货币政策。
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越南国会于6月14日批准了《数字技术产业法案》，将数字资产纳入监管范围，据悉该法案将于2026年1月1日生效，承认加密资产并为越南全国范围内更广泛的数字创新奠定基础。 据悉，该法案将数字资产分为两类：虚拟资产和加密资产，虽然两者都依赖加密或数字技术进行验证和转移，但均不包括证券、数字法定货币或其他金融工具，目前监管机构的任务是概述这些资产类型的具体商业条件、分类和监督机制。
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尽管比特币当前市值远高于以往，但本轮周期的表现与过去相比差距并不大：
· 2015–2018 年：上涨了 1076%；
· 2018–2022 年：上涨了 1007%；
· 2022 年至今：上涨了 656%。
这表明市场对比特币的需求增长正在跟上其日渐成熟的步伐——这是投资者持续兴趣的一个令人印象深刻的信号。
· 2015–2018 年：上涨了 1076%；
· 2018–2022 年：上涨了 1007%；
· 2022 年至今：上涨了 656%。
这表明市场对比特币的需求增长正在跟上其日渐成熟的步伐——这是投资者持续兴趣的一个令人印象深刻的信号。
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Yesterday's target point was set too high, the pancake reached a maximum of 1061, which is 400 points away from the target point, and Yitai is 2583, which is 17 points away from the target point. Although it did not reach the direct sales, all have already exceeded a hundred percent profit. The entry points are clearly provided, and the exit points also need to be controlled by oneself!
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The key position below is 2381. If 2381 is broken, it will completely turn bearish. If 2381 is not broken, then ETH is considered to still be in this ascending channel.
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BTC has dropped from 109 as expected. Yesterday, I guided everyone to do 🈳 at 1096 and pointed out the target of 1065. This position is worth paying attention to, as it has structural support and trend line support. If it tests 2-3 times without breaking, we can see new highs. Overall, this is a bullish tail market in my eyes, at most we might see a new high before a complete collapse. This is the last chance to escape!
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Last night's frontline position layout 🈳 single, the subsequent tips are to take profits in batches. So far, we have successfully gained two thousand points. I am quite greedy; let the conservatives exit directly!
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CPI will be announced at 8:30 PM tonight
Inflation data below expectations is likely to lead to faster rate cuts, with a high probability of an increase
Inflation data above expectations is likely to lead to a slowdown in rate cuts, with a high probability of a decrease
Last week, the non-farm payrolls gave a 15-minute pin bar, waiting for tonight's CPI
Currently, the key fundamentals that will affect the trend are non-farm payrolls and CPI, and these two data points will indirectly influence rate cuts. Other data do not need to be considered, as they have no impact on the crypto market.
Inflation data below expectations is likely to lead to faster rate cuts, with a high probability of an increase
Inflation data above expectations is likely to lead to a slowdown in rate cuts, with a high probability of a decrease
Last week, the non-farm payrolls gave a 15-minute pin bar, waiting for tonight's CPI
Currently, the key fundamentals that will affect the trend are non-farm payrolls and CPI, and these two data points will indirectly influence rate cuts. Other data do not need to be considered, as they have no impact on the crypto market.
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Although Bitcoin has rebounded significantly from around the 100,000 mark, I believe this round of increase is more inclined to be a technical rebound rather than the starting point of a new bull market.
From the perspective of short-term patterns, the market is brewing a potential ascending wedge structure. This pattern typically appears at the end of an upward trend, suggesting a weakening of momentum. If this pattern holds, there is a technical demand for the price to break below the current support and retest the 106,000 area for support.
According to the measurement target of this ascending wedge, this round of rebound may reach the range of 112,000 to 114,000. It is important to emphasize that if the price effectively reaches this target area, the risk of the market peaking and retracing will significantly increase.
From the perspective of short-term patterns, the market is brewing a potential ascending wedge structure. This pattern typically appears at the end of an upward trend, suggesting a weakening of momentum. If this pattern holds, there is a technical demand for the price to break below the current support and retest the 106,000 area for support.
According to the measurement target of this ascending wedge, this round of rebound may reach the range of 112,000 to 114,000. It is important to emphasize that if the price effectively reaches this target area, the risk of the market peaking and retracing will significantly increase.
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