加密沉思录

True wealth accumulation is exponential, looking forward to the next surge and crash #btc

First half out

Current Price and Fluctuation Range
The current price of Bitcoin is $93,000, within a narrow fluctuation range of $91,000 to $100,000.
There is a rebound demand after falling to $91,000, but it has not yet broken through the key psychological level of $100,000.
Key Time Points and Potential Positive Factors
The event of Trump taking office on January 20 is considered a potential positive factor for the market.
However, the short-term rebound in the market may be more driven by speculation, as the current consolidation period is insufficient (only 1 month) and has not reached a stage of full adjustment.
Market Consolidation Logic
$100,000 is an extremely important level, and the market may fluctuate around this point, aiming to wash out speculative positions and high-leverage traders, leading to greater market volatility.
The current decline (only about 10%) and depth of consolidation are not sufficient. The market needs to further explore lower levels to achieve a deeper adjustment range (possibly in the $80,000 or even $70,000 range).
Investment Strategy Suggestions
Avoid High-Leverage Trading
The current consolidation phase may experience drastic fluctuations, and high-leverage contracts pose extremely high risks, so participation is discouraged.
The purpose of this consolidation is to wash out excessive speculative funds and thoroughly release risks.
Patiently Wait for Low Points to Layout
Before the end of the year, Bitcoin may reach $200,000, but before that, there may be one last panic selling opportunity.
The market's target range for further decline may be above $70,000 or $80,000, but specific points are difficult to predict.
Even with spot investments, under the potential for threefold growth in the future, there is still a significant adjustment space at the current price.
Seize the Opportunity of the Big Cycle
Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend; the bull market continues.
Investors should remain patient and wait for sufficient adjustments in both space and time, avoiding blind chasing of highs or premature bottom fishing.#比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调

Analysis of the Current State and Trends of the Cryptocurrency Market
Market Phase: The current cryptocurrency market is in a high-level consolidation phase, and the trend has not completely changed.
Short-term Events and Impacts:
There are 8 days left until Trump takes office on January 20, which may bring potential positive news, but such news can only temporarily delay the consolidation trend and cannot fundamentally change the overall direction of the market.
The $100,000 level is a key point, and the market may fluctuate around this level.
Macroeconomic Cycle Analysis:
The bull market cycle has not yet ended, and Ethereum has not yet broken through its previous high, indicating that there is still upward space in the overall market.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction cycle has already begun, and its continuity and cyclicality will not change due to short-term economic data (such as non-farm employment index, etc.) improving.
#比特币价格走势分析 #非农数据大幅超出预期

When the platform token surges, it is necessary to appropriately reduce some positions, as the market may have overheated.

2024.12.15 BTC Short-term Market Analysis

Volatility range has narrowed, the 4-hour level market is forming a converging structure, waiting for a change in trend, yesterday's position closed with a small profit.

#BTC行情分析 #BTC重回关键位置后走势 #

2024.12.14 BTC Short-term Market Analysis

The fluctuation range has narrowed, with today's oscillation reaching a high point, posing a slight risk of decline. The current level is decent, and a small short position can be opened for trial trading. No predictions on the market, only following the market.

Short Position:
Entry: 102200
Take Profit: 100000
Stop Loss: 104100#BTC重回关键位置后走势 #行情分析📈

If you have your eye on an asset and it looks good, you are ready to buy. How should you build your position? It should be done in batches. If you buy all at once, you will have only one mindset: you want it to rise quickly; if it falls, you will feel very uncomfortable. If you build your position in batches, you will hope it falls; if it drops, you will be happy, and if it rises, you will also be happy. #资金管理 #仓位管理思维

The overall market sentiment is relatively cold. Is the volatility coming to an end? From the high of 73,000 in March to the current 61,000, it has retreated by more than 20%, which is about two months. In terms of time and space, I think it is still not enough. Don't be anxious. At least wait until the end of May or June. Investing requires patience. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #BTC走势分析

During international events such as the European Football Championship, the price movements of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often become the focus of investors' attention. Many people speculate that major sporting events may drive up the price of Bitcoin because global attention and a large amount of international transactions may increase the demand for Bitcoin.

However, the truth may be more complicated. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, and its price movements are often related to a variety of factors, including global economic conditions, policy changes, technological developments, etc., rather than just a single event. Although the European Football Championship may increase Bitcoin's exposure in the short term, allowing more people to enter the market, this effect is difficult to accurately predict.

Therefore, considering the European Football Championship as a direct cause of Bitcoin's price increase may oversimplify this complex market dynamic. Investors should consider broader market factors when making investment decisions, rather than just based on a single upcoming event. After all, Bitcoin's market performance is often unpredictable, and any attempt to use large events to conduct market operations is fraught with risks.

In summary, while sporting events such as the European Football Championship may bring a certain amount of popularity and trading volume to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, this does not directly equate to a rise in prices. Investors should remain cautious and rational when considering the impact of such events on the market.#BTCmarket [super topic] #cryptocurrency#BTC走势分析 #ETH

Now that the price of the currency has returned to above 60,000 US dollars, do you still insist on the original view that it will fall for one or two months? Even if the price has returned to above 60,000 US dollars, the market's degree of clean-up is not enough, whether in terms of time or space. The view remains unchanged. The market is likely to fall or remain volatile. #山寨币热点 #BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件

A fan bought a 95t S19 Bitcoin mining machine in April 2022, and has now recovered less than half of the cost. He asked me how long it would take to get his money back. Let's make a profit calculation table for S19. The current daily electricity cost of S19 (assuming 0.36 yuan/kWh) is 0.36*3.25*24=28.08 yuan, and the daily output profit is 95÷640000000*3.125*6*24=0.0000667 bitcoins. Referring to the bitcoin price of 65,000 US dollars, the daily profit is 0.0000667*65000*7.3=31.69 yuan, and the daily block reward is 31.69 yuan. Assuming that the charging fee income is 10%, it is 3.169 yuan. The actual daily income is 31.69+3.169-28.08=6.78 yuan, but the income is floating. First, Bitcoin is definitely at a relatively low price in the long run. Second, the income from handling fees will continue to increase in the later period with the popularity of inscriptions and runes. So if it were me, I would probably choose the following strategy: If you don’t have many mining machines, you can choose to hold on for a while, pay the electricity bill yourself, and hold on for a few months. Later, as the exchange rate rises, you can earn more profit. If you have a lot of mining machines, you can choose options for arbitrage and earn part of the electricity bill (the current suitable strategy is to sell Bitcoin at a high price)

A fan asked me whether it is more cost-effective to buy a mining machine or to buy Bitcoin spot now. If it were me, I would choose to buy spot, and then pledge the spot loan rate to maintain at around 50% to buy mining machines. As the mining machines continue to produce spot goods, I can flexibly repay the loan, or continue to mortgage loans to buy new mining machines. ​​​

Is it better to exchange big bitcoins for copycats or copycats for big bitcoins? This depends on the situation. If you have a lot of copycats, it is recommended to exchange some of them for big bitcoins. If you have a lot of big bitcoins and few copycats, it is recommended not to exchange them, because copycats are now at the bottom of the consolidation range.

Is there any chance for 52,000 and 48,000? What is the probability? 52,000 is a chance. There will definitely be black swans in the market, with a probability of up to 51%. 48,000 is not certain. If there is a chance, it may touch 48,000 in the short term and then quickly withdraw.

Someone asked me whether the non-farm data on May 3, 2024 was not ideal and it was expected that interest rates would be cut this year. Will the interest rate cut accelerate the arrival of the bull market in advance?
First of all, the interest rate cut will definitely accelerate the arrival of the bull market. Whether the bull market will come or not depends on whether the incremental funds in the market increase. If there is no interest rate cut, the incremental funds in the market are all playing games, and there will not be a big bull market.

Short-term market analysis

Maintain yesterday's analysis. Currently, Bitcoin has broken through the falling wedge and maintained high-level fluctuations. From the current fluctuations, the lowest point hit 62,800, which is exactly the upper track of the falling wedge. At present, some shorts are accumulated here. It can be seen that the funding rate on Binance is already negative. There is a high probability of an increase. Breaking through 65,000 will have a good increase.

MEME tokens are an indispensable traffic entrance and spiritual symbol in the crypto world

Meme tokens are an important part of the crypto world. They form a strong cohesive community around a unique culture. They are widely spread through simple images and stories, inspiring the public's imagination and attracting waves of people. If they become an indispensable traffic entrance and spiritual symbol in the crypto world.
To spread cryptocurrency and buy it, do you need to rely on hundreds of thousands of bitcoins? Will newcomers who have just entered the cryptocurrency circle expect to get rich by buying bitcoins? Definitely not. From the earliest Musk's call for Dogecoin, Dogecoin has risen dozens of times, to the most recent craziest BOME, the initial market value was only 3 million US dollars, and it rose to 1 billion US dollars in 3 days, a 300-fold increase in 3 days. Only such a myth of wealth creation can attract more outsiders to enter the WEB3 world.

Short-term market analysis: Bitcoin has rebounded for several days and is currently around 63,700. This rebound is partly due to the unexpected impact of the non-agricultural data, which has brought forward the expectation of interest rate cuts. Data can only affect the short-term trend. I personally prefer the rebound to continue. The market funding rate is still very normal. Often, those who should get off the bus have gotten off the bus. In terms of form, it has broken through the falling wedge. The overall advantage is relatively healthy. What needs to be paid attention to now is the pressure level of around 67,500. If it is broken, there may be a new wave of market #比特币 #比特币行情走势分析