**1. Overview of the Current Market Stage**
1. **The Second Round of the Large Cycle's Adjustment Phase**
- Current crypto assets are in the second round of adjustment of this bull market.
- On the night of January 13, the price dropped from 94,000 to 89,000, which was a slight bottoming during a minor panic speculation phase.
- The reason the market has not continued to test lower levels is the certainty of the benefit brought by Trump's inauguration on January 20.
2. **Relationship Between Short-term Benefits and Overall Trends**
- Market makers may use Trump's inauguration news for short-term speculation, but it cannot change the overall adjustment trend.
- From the high point in December 2024 to January 14, 2025, there was only an adjustment of about 18%, and the time and space have not fully reached the requirements for emotional fermentation.
3. **Market Sentiment and Trend Predictions**
- The market may present a rounded trend: rising, falling, rising again, and continuing to fall.
- The trend is gradually moving away from the high point of 108,000; even if it briefly breaks 100,000, it will quickly fall back.
- A lower bottom is gradually emerging, for example, from 91,000 to 89,000, and may further test lower levels later.
**2. Underlying Logic of Market Adjustment**
1. **Wash Out Speculative Positions**
- The core logic of the financial market is to continuously wash out high-level speculative positions.
- The goal of this round of adjustment is to wash out speculative chips above 100,000, preparing for the next stage.
2. **The Bull Market Cycle Remains Unchanged**
- Currently still in the bull market cycle, this round of cycles is expected to last until the end of 2025.
- After the end of the cycle, a new bear market cycle will begin, creating a foundation for the next bull market.
**3. Macroeconomic Policy and Market Integration**
1. **Promotion of Stablecoin Legislation**
- The U.S. is expected to promote more comprehensive stablecoin legislation in 2025.
- The integration of the dollar with stablecoins will enhance market confidence and liquidity.
2. **Integration of Traditional Finance and DEFI**
- The gradual integration of the existing financial system with DEFI is a long-term trend.
- This process will gradually change the market ecosystem, but it requires time to advance.
**4. Future Opportunities and Trend Outlook**
1. **Potential for Killer Applications**
- Killer applications may emerge in the future of blockchain, especially in entertainment and daily life.
- The industry is still in the stage of infrastructure construction and requires time to support practical landing.
2. **Approval of SOL ETF and Influx of Funds**
- The approval of ETFs for quality assets like SOL in the future may attract more funds into the market.
3. **Evolution of High-Leverage Profit Opportunities**
- Investment opportunities of several dozen times are gradually decreasing, waiting for the next round of bear market bottom for new opportunities.
**5. Summary and Recommendations**
1. **Adjustment Has Not Yet Ended**
- Current market time and spatial adjustments are insufficient; patience is needed for continued observation.
2. **Focus on Policy and Technological Progress**
- Focus on stablecoin legislation, DEFI integration, and the landing of killer applications.
3. **Develop Clear Investment Strategies**
- Align with market rhythm, avoid chasing highs and selling lows, and use cyclical opportunities to layout for the future.
**Conclusion**
This program aims to help everyone clarify the current market stage and potential future trends, hoping to provide reference for investment decisions.
**Program Theme: Analysis of Crypto Market Cycles and Trends**
**1. Overview of the Current Market Stage**
1. **The Second Round of the Large Cycle's Adjustment Phase**
- Current crypto assets are in the second round of adjustment of this bull market.
- On the night of January 13, the price dropped from 94,000 to 89,000, which was a slight bottoming during a minor panic speculation phase.
- The reason the market has not continued to test lower levels is the certainty of the benefit brought by Trump's inauguration on January 20.
2. **Relationship Between Short-term Benefits and Overall Trends**
- Market makers may use Trump's inauguration news for short-term speculation, but it cannot change the overall adjustment trend.
- From the high point in December 2024 to January 14, 2025, there was only an adjustment of about 18%, and the time and space have not fully reached the requirements for emotional fermentation.
3. **Market Sentiment and Trend Predictions**
- The market may present a rounded trend: rising, falling, rising again, and continuing to fall.
- The trend is gradually moving away from the high point of 108,000; even if it briefly breaks 100,000, it will quickly fall back.
- A lower bottom is gradually emerging, for example, from 91,000 to 89,000, and may further test lower levels later.
**2. Underlying Logic of Market Adjustment**
1. **Wash Out Speculative Positions**
- The core logic of the financial market is to continuously wash out high-level speculative positions.
- The goal of this round of adjustment is to wash out speculative chips above 100,000, preparing for the next stage.
2. **The Bull Market Cycle Remains Unchanged**
- Currently still in the bull market cycle, this round of cycles is expected to last until the end of 2025.
- After the end of the cycle, a new bear market cycle will begin, creating a foundation for the next bull market.
**3. Macroeconomic Policy and Market Integration**
1. **Promotion of Stablecoin Legislation**
- The U.S. is expected to promote more comprehensive stablecoin legislation in 2025.
- The integration of the dollar with stablecoins will enhance market confidence and liquidity.
2. **Integration of Traditional Finance and DEFI**
- The gradual integration of the existing financial system with DEFI is a long-term trend.
- This process will gradually change the market ecosystem, but it requires time to advance.
**4. Future Opportunities and Trend Outlook**
1. **Potential for Killer Applications**
- Killer applications may emerge in the future of blockchain, especially in entertainment and daily life.#市场反弹预测
