爆炸就是艺术

The essence of Bitcoin is very simple —

1. Bitcoin simulates, through algorithms, a digital commodity that is nearly perfect in all aspects of currency attributes, something that has never appeared in human history.

2. The near perfection of Bitcoin's currency attributes is maintained by its incredibly powerful computing power.

On June 19, $BTC 6, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, maintaining the rate at 4.25%-4.50% unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. The dot plot indicates that the Federal Reserve still expects to cut rates twice in 2025. The prices of U.S. interest rate futures predict a 71% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from 60% previously.
Powell stated: "No one has high confidence in the predictions of the interest rate path; rate cuts could come quickly, or they might not come quickly; it depends on the impact of tariff levels."
Trump continues to urge rate cuts, stating: "Mr. Powell is too late; he is a disgrace to America! Powell has cost the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars; he is indeed one of the most foolish people."

(The market is highly volatile, it is advised to stay away!!!)

#美国国债 Debt exceeds $37 trillion
June 2025 data shows that the total US national debt reached $37 trillion, accelerating from $36 trillion in November 2024, and interest expenses accounted for 25% of fiscal revenue.
Rating downgrade: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1 for the first time in 108 years, and all three major rating agencies downgraded US debt to below 3A.
Fiscal Sustainability Crisis
US debt accounts for 123% of GDP, far exceeding the international warning line of 60%. Interest expenditure is 4% of GDP and is expected to rise to 30% in 2034, forming a vicious cycle of "borrowing new to repay old".
Trump's "Big Beautiful Act" plans to cut taxes by another $4 trillion, which may further expand the deficit.
2. Changes in the global holding pattern
Major creditor countries reduce holdings trend
China: Reduced holdings for two consecutive months (reduced by $18.9 billion in March and $8.2 billion in April), with holdings falling to $757.2 billion, a new low since 2009, falling to the third largest creditor.
Japan: Still the largest holder ($1.13 trillion), but cumulative holdings fell by more than $400 billion from 2022 to 2024.
UK: Increased holdings by $28.4 billion to $807.7 billion, jumping to the second largest creditor.
Multiple countries accelerate de-dollarization
Gold alternative: At the end of 2024, gold replaced the euro as the second largest reserve asset in the world (accounting for 20%), and 60% of the gold increase by emerging market central banks was used to replace US debt.

$BTC 2025年6月20日 20:00-24:00 比特币与以太坊价格走势分析

当前价格：BTC 105,800 | ETH 2,540

一、（BTC）波动范围分析

1. 关键区间
- 支撑：105,000-105,300美元
- 阻力：106,000-106,500
2. 波动特点
- 美洲市场开盘后流动性回升，价格可能测试106,000阻力位，否则可能回踩105,000支撑。
- 若突破阻力，可能触发短期多头情绪；若受阻，将回踩104,800支撑。

二、（ETH）波动范围分析

1. 关键区间
- 支撑：2,520-2,540
- 阻力：2,560-2,580
2. 联动与风险
- 若BTC/ETH汇率突破0.0238，可能带动ETH测试2,560；若跌破2,520美元，可能触发短期清算压力。
- 4小时RSI若回升至50以上或推动价格挑战2,560美元。

这些问题都想清楚，小来小去的涨涨跌跌，都不影响大局，真正影响大局的，就是主涨段和主跌段的操作。要明白主涨段发生在什么情况下，主跌段发生在什么情况下，概率怎么才能对你有利。所谓：抓大放小。

其实这两段你只要操作好了，基本你的水平就不低了，日常小的波动，完全可以无视。

#波段交易策略 Actually, when you think about trading, you must be decisive when there's a chance to make money. Grab onto the main trend and earn more; only then can you maintain a good mindset during unfavorable market conditions because you have gained more, and can withstand some losses.

What we fear is the hesitation when the main trend begins, constantly deliberating, which leads to missing out on making significant profits in the main trend and instead entering at the tail end, incurring substantial losses.

To be honest, my ability to exit at the peak has been poor. Although I have worked hard over the past two years by selling accelerated stocks and buying undervalued ones to some extent reduced the drawdown from the main trend's backlash, it is generally very difficult to completely avoid such market conditions. However, fortunately, I have been present for all the major uptrends in the main trend and did not miss out.

Therefore, everyone must think about how to avoid missing the main uptrend phase and try to evade the main downtrend. If you cannot achieve this, never be present during the main downtrend and absent during the main uptrend, as this is the worst operation. We can categorize as follows:

1. Optimal operation: present during the main uptrend, avoiding the main downtrend;
2. Suboptimal operation: present during the main uptrend, avoiding part of the main downtrend through swing trading;
3. Balanced operation: present during both the main uptrend and downtrend;
4. Worst operation: absent during the main uptrend, but present during the main downtrend.

1 can lead to significant profits; 2 can stabilize profits in the long run; 3 depends on luck and timing of entry; with good luck, you might make some money, and with bad luck, you might incur losses, but overall, you won't experience significant gains or losses; 4 will result in substantial losses because it embodies the essence of chasing highs and selling lows.

Therefore, everyone must clarify this issue.

For example, if you didn't avoid a downturn now, you need to consider whether you'll miss out on the main uptrend. Since the drawdown is already a fact, if you are present during the drawdown and can't help but cut losses, and then later miss the main uptrend, wouldn't that be a double blow to both your finances and your mindset?

In fact, when it comes to trading, if you think about it carefully, when you can make money, you must be decisive, seize the main trend and earn a little more. Then, in such a poor market, you can maintain a good mindset because you have earned a lot; you can afford to take a small loss.

What is most to be feared? It is when the main trend starts, and you hesitate, constantly deliberating, leading to not making big money during the main trend, but instead entering at the tail end, resulting in significant losses.

To be honest, my ability to exit at the peak is quite poor. Although in the past two years, I have worked hard by selling stocks that accelerate and buying stocks that are exhausted, which has somewhat reduced the pullback from the main trend, this kind of market is generally difficult to completely avoid. However, fortunately, I have been present for all the major uptrends in the main trend and have not missed them.

So, everyone must think about how to avoid missing the main uptrend phase and try to avoid the main downtrend phase. If you can't do it, be sure not to be present during the main downtrend while missing the main uptrend; that is the worst operation. We can categorize as follows:

1. Optimal operation: Present in the main uptrend, avoiding the main downtrend;
2. Suboptimal operation: Present in the main uptrend, avoiding some of the main downtrend through swing trading;
3. Balanced operation: Present in both the main uptrend and the main downtrend;
4. Worst operation: Not present in the main uptrend, but present in the main downtrend.

#X超级应用转型
1. Strategic Positioning: From Social Media to 'Universal Application'
Benchmarking against WeChat Model
Musk has repeatedly emphasized the need to learn from WeChat's ecosystem integration capabilities, aiming to transform X into a one-stop platform for communication, payments, shopping, information, and entertainment. The goal is to bind users through high-frequency payment scenarios, addressing the pain point of Twitter's reliance on a single advertising revenue model.
Data and AI Collaboration
In March 2025, xAI will acquire X in an all-stock deal (valued at $33 billion), with the core objective of deeply integrating X's 600 million active user behavior data with xAI's Grok large model to optimize AI product experience (such as personalized recommendations and intelligent customer service).
2. Progress in Core Functionality Implementation
Financial Payments (X Money)
Payment License Coverage: Obtained remittance permits in 41 U.S. states, with a small-scale test of X Money set to launch in May 2025, supporting P2P transfers and merchant payments.
Cross-Border Scenario Expansion: Plans to integrate cross-border remittance features to challenge PayPal and Venmo.
E-commerce and Content Ecosystem
Live Shopping: In 2024, testing influencer live-stream shopping, allowing users to place orders directly through the live stream (such as Tesla merchandise).
Creator Economy: X Premium subscription service ($84 annual fee) provides advertising revenue sharing and long-form creation tools, attracting 10 million paying users.
Enterprise Services (X for Business)
Providing enterprises with a one-stop marketing + transaction closed loop, including ad placement, customer service bots, and payment settlement, aiming to replace some functions of LinkedIn and Shopify.

$USDC USDC (USD Coin) Core Analysis
USDC is the world's second-largest dollar stablecoin (market cap over $60 billion), issued by Circle, and is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. Its core features and advancements are as follows:
🔒 1. Core Advantages: Compliance and Transparency
Strict Regulation: Regulated by the US SEC and the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), with monthly reserve reports publicly audited by third-party firms (such as Grant Thornton), 93% in cash and US Treasury bonds.
Safety Comparison: Compared to USDT (which has questionable reserve transparency and is headquartered in the Cayman Islands), USDC's compliance framework is more trusted by traditional financial institutions.
Legal Endorsement: Complies with the requirements of the US 'GENIUS Act' (which mandates 1:1 dollar/Treasury bond reserves), and is also listed as a compliant asset under Hong Kong's 'Stablecoin Regulation'.
💼 2. Recent Major Developments
Circle Listing: On June 5, 2025, it will be listed on the NYSE (ticker CRCL), surging 168% on its first day, with a market cap exceeding $45 billion (68.5% of USDC's circulating market cap). The market is optimistic about its potential as a 'digital dollar', predicting that the stablecoin market could reach $28 trillion by 2028.
Futures Market Breakthrough: Coinbase and Nodal Clear have collaborated to include USDC as collateral in the US futures market, supported by the CFTC.
Cross-Border Payment Revolution:
JD.com plans to apply for stablecoin licenses globally, aiming to reduce cross-border payment costs by 90% and shorten processing time to under 10 seconds.
Panama City allows tax and fine payments in USDC; Walmart and Amazon are exploring stablecoin payments to replace high fees from Visa/Mastercard.

#加密概念美股 1, Chinese Concept Stock Index Rises Over 2%

U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, led by tech stocks. The Nasdaq index rose 1.52%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, and the Dow Jones index rose 0.75%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 3%, reaching a closing high since late February. Cryptocurrency stablecoin company Circle rose over 13% to $151, with its stock price nearing 5 times the IPO issue price. The performance of the leading stablecoin has a significant impact on the speculation of A-shares, and today the stablecoin concept has a premium effect.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.07%. Futu Holdings rose over 10%, Bilibili rose over 5%, and Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD all rose over 2%. The strength of Chinese concept stocks has a significant impact on Hong Kong stocks, and based on recent trends in Hong Kong stocks, it may be entering a bull market, with capital gathering in Hong Kong stocks.

2. Report: “Devastated” Iran Seeks to Ease Hostilities with Israel

According to reports, officials in the Middle East and Europe say Iran has been urgently signaling its desire to end hostilities, resume negotiations regarding its nuclear program, and has sent messages to Israel and the U.S. through Arab intermediaries.

A comprehensive war in the Middle East is difficult, as both parties cannot occupy each other's land and the power dynamics are severely asymmetrical, likely resulting from repeated mutual bombings. Oil and gold prices have stabilized, making it difficult for further unexpected events to arise, as everyone is prepared.

$USDC USDC (USD Coin) is a compliant dollar stablecoin jointly launched by Circle and Coinbase, pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio, primarily used for cryptocurrency trading, cross-border payments, and decentralized finance (DeFi). Here are its core points:
1. Basic Features and Operational Mechanism
Pegging and Reserves
USDC is fully backed by US dollars and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, with a 1:1 reserve requirement mandated by the GENIUS Act, ensuring transparency and compliance. As of March 2025, the circulating supply of USDC is approximately $60 billion, with reserve assets reaching $60.7 billion, of which ultra-short-term U.S. Treasury bonds account for 40%.
Issuance and Revenue Model
Circle generates USDC by acquiring users' dollars and investing in low-risk assets (such as U.S. Treasuries) to earn interest spread. In 2024, its reserve income reached $1.66 billion, accounting for 99% of total revenue.
2. Market Position and Competition
Industry Ranking
USDC is the second-largest stablecoin, following USDT (with a market cap of $153.3 billion). Its compliance and transparency make it the preferred choice for institutions, especially in the U.S. and European markets.
Compliance Advantages
USDC complies with the regulatory frameworks of the United States and the European Union (such as the MICA regulation), undergoes regular audits, and is more trusted by traditional financial institutions compared to USDT. With the passage of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, USDC's compliant applications in Asia are further expanding.

In the trading system of #我的交易风格 , you need to find the one that suits you best, just like if you focus on practical traders you want to refer to, you must find those with trading styles similar to yours. Only then can you obtain useful information to enhance yourself.

What suits you? Let's take SP as an example. You can see that my SP can yield significant excess returns, but it also comes with large drawdowns because profits and losses come from the same source. However, I can use my eight years of experience and mindset to adjust and maintain a 'lower limit.' Once there is a market that suits me, I can continuously break through the upper limit and obtain excess returns, of course, this is because I am inherently aggressive.

Take someone like Awa, for instance; we can see that we almost connected to the actual P at the same time, and it has been over a year and a half now. His profit curve is gradually rising, accompanied by low drawdowns, and he manages risk and position well. He can maintain the lower limit through risk and position management, earning profits as time goes on, but it will be very difficult to break through the upper limit to obtain excess returns. Of course, this is from my personal perspective.
This approach is actually the most suitable for most people, but everyone comes into this circle wanting to earn excess returns, dreaming of becoming rich overnight, so the simplest path is the hardest to replicate.

#GENIUS稳定币法案 GENIUS法案（全称《2025年美国稳定币创新指导与建立法案》）是美国首个针对稳定币的联邦立法框架，旨在通过明确监管规则，重塑稳定币市场格局并巩固美元主导地位。以下为法案核心进展与内容要点：
一、立法进程
初步通过：2025年3月13日，参议院银行委员会以18票赞成、6票反对通过法案。
程序性投票：5月20日参议院以66:32通过终止辩论动议（cloture），扫除立法障碍，进入全体投票阶段。
后续步骤：需众议院通过并由总统签署生效，由于众议院门槛较低且特朗普政府持支持态度，通过概率较大。
二、核心内容
定义与储备要求
支付稳定币定义为1:1锚定美元或高质量流动资产的数字资产，储备资产限于现金、短期美债、央行存款等。
禁止无储备支持的算法稳定币，要求每月公开储备构成并接受审计。
分级监管
联邦监管：市值超100亿美元的发行方（如USDT、USDC）由美联储或货币监理署（OCC）监管。
州级监管：市值不足100亿美元的发行方可选择州监管，但需与联邦标准一致。
合规与保护
发行人需遵守反洗钱（AML）和银行保密法，实施客户身份识别和交易监控。
若发行人破产，稳定币持有人享有优先偿付权，储备资产与发行人资产隔离。

#美联储FOMC会议 Federal Reserve Internal Disagreement
In the March meeting, there were significant divergences among the 19 FOMC members regarding the interest rate cut path: 4 supported no cuts until 2025, 4 supported one cut (25 basis points), 9 supported two cuts, and 2 supported three cuts. The median of the dot plot maintains the prediction of a 50 basis point cut within the year, but the proportion of members supporting fewer cuts has increased.
Market Pricing and Risks
The futures market indicates that traders expect a cumulative cut of 75 basis points (3 times) by 2025, but the probability of a cut at the June meeting is only 34%, increasing to 70% in September. If the Federal Reserve delays action, it may exacerbate stock market volatility, putting pressure on high-leverage sectors such as technology stocks and real estate.
IV. External Risks and Policy Challenges
Tariff and Supply Chain Impacts
Trump's imposition of a 34% tariff on China has led to a general rise in import prices, increasing the annual expenditure for average American households by $3,800 to $5,000. JPMorgan estimates that tariffs could raise core PCE inflation by 1.5 to 2 percentage points, intensifying the risk of 'stagflation'.
Debt and Liquidity Concerns
In 2025, $9.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds will mature, with interest payments accounting for 20% of fiscal spending. If the rate cuts are insufficient, the cost of extending debt may squeeze fiscal stimulus space. Additionally, the banking system has floating losses of $2 trillion, nearing the capital level, putting financial stability to the test.
V. Future Policy Outlook
Key Signals from the June Meeting
The market is focused on whether the FOMC meeting on May 6-7 will release forward guidance for rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve acknowledges that the downside risks to the economy outweigh inflationary pressures, it may pave the way for a rate cut in June; if it emphasizes 'data dependence', then cuts may be delayed until September.
Long-term Policy Framework
The Federal Reserve has initiated a five-year review of its monetary policy framework, focusing on assessing the definition of full employment and flexibility in the inflation target. The 2020 'average inflation targeting' framework may be adjusted to address structural changes resulting from supply chain reconfiguration and the retreat of globalization.

The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for two consecutive meetings since March 2025, in line with market expectations. This decision is based on a balanced consideration of economic resilience and inflation risks. Despite repeated pressure from Trump to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve emphasizes its independence and insists on adjusting policies based on economic data rather than political pressure.

Balance Sheet Adjustment
Starting from April 2025, the Federal Reserve will reduce the scale of Treasury bond purchases from $25 billion per month to $5 billion, while maintaining a cap of $35 billion per month for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This move aims to alleviate liquidity pressure in the money market and leave buffer space for potential shocks after resolving the debt ceiling.

II. Economic and Inflation Assessment
Downgrade of Economic Growth Expectations
At the March meeting, the Federal Reserve downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% and for 2026 from 2.0% to 1.8%, mainly due to uncertainties in tariff policies that suppress business investment and consumer confidence. The Atlanta Fed model shows that the GDP growth expectation for the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8%, indicating short-term recession risks.

$BTC From the current perspective, yesterday's trend saw a morning pullback to a low, followed by a rise in the white plate. After being blocked at the resistance level, it pulled back again. The box oscillation remains unchanged, with a rebound at the low in the evening followed by another pullback. It is currently adjusting and probing upwards at the mid-track position, and the larger cycle is entering a consolidation phase. If it can successfully break through the larger cycle, it will welcome an effective recovery!

From the four-hour view, the Bollinger Bands continue to contract and move sideways for several days, with no significant changes in either direction. The KDJ has formed a continuous golden cross upwards, showing clear signs of a bottom being formed, and the support strength below is also relatively strong. Looking ahead, a breakthrough of the mid-track resistance is anticipated! In terms of operation, maintain a focus on low volatility!

In 2025, Vietnam's cryptocurrency policy presents a multidimensional development, with breakthroughs in legislation as well as adjustments in regulation and market practices, reflecting its strategic consideration of balancing innovation and risk management:
1. Legislative and Regulatory Framework
Acceleration of the Legalization Process
The National Assembly of Vietnam passed the "Digital Technology Industry Law" in June 2025, officially incorporating cryptocurrencies into the legal regulatory system for the first time, scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026. The law recognizes the property attributes of crypto assets, allowing individuals and businesses to trade and hold cryptocurrencies under compliance conditions, and clearly defines the legal operational qualifications required for exchanges.
Pilot Exchange Promotion
The Ministry of Finance of Vietnam proposed establishing a pilot project for digital asset and cryptocurrency exchanges, planning to achieve standardized trading of virtual assets through a national-level platform. This pilot will prioritize supporting enterprises in issuing crypto assets for financing, with key areas including import and export trade and digital financial infrastructure.
Risk Warnings and Enforcement Strengthening
Vietnamese police have repeatedly warned the public to beware of risks associated with illegal cryptocurrency projects, such as unauthorized crypto assets like Pi Network, clearly stating that they do not possess legal currency attributes and pose fraud risks. At the same time, the government has intensified efforts to combat money laundering and illegal fundraising activities, requiring trading platforms to cooperate with anti-money laundering reviews.

$BTC Latest Insights on Bitcoin

Expect Bitcoin to enter a consolidation period, the large cycle consolidation range can refer to Figure ① box,

In Figure ②, it is clearly visible that after Bitcoin breaks through the core shoulder line of the top and bottom conversion to rise, it is affected by news and retraces, falling below the core shoulder line and entering a new consolidation phase,

The upper resistance level can continue to refer to the shoulder line near 107, while the lower support level can continue to refer to near 101. If it breaks below, it can be seen down to the lower edge of the box near 92.

For entertainment sharing only, no advice given.

#特朗普比特币金库 【Selling gold reserves to buy Bitcoin, is Trump serious this time?】After Trump's victory, Bitcoin has skyrocketed. From $68,000 on November 5, before the election results were announced, it soared to $98,000 by November 22, experiencing an over 40% surge within two weeks, leaving the world in awe.

Why did Bitcoin soar after Trump's win?

Because at the Bitcoin conference in July 2024, Trump delivered an impassioned speech, claiming that if he returned to the White House, he would make the United States the global "cryptocurrency capital" and a "Bitcoin superpower".

He promised to establish a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency advisory committee, and ordered the Treasury Department and other federal agencies to stop developing central bank digital currencies. He also vowed to immediately dismiss the current Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, as this person is very unfriendly towards Bitcoin. This gentleman was also quite perceptive, having already announced his resignation for January next year on November 21, further boosting the confidence of the crypto community. More importantly, Trump also promised…

$ADA Cardano (ADA) is a top ten cryptocurrency by market capitalization, which has recently attracted attention due to ETF applications, regulatory expectations, and other news. For example, the spot ETF applications submitted by institutions such as Hashdex include it as an underlying asset, and the market expects this may drive price volatility. Data from March 2025 indicates that the ADA price has surpassed $0.71, and analysts predict it may challenge $1 or even its historical high.
Controversy and Opportunities
Some investors believe ADA is a 'zombie coin' (a low-activity coin that has been stagnant for a long time), but due to its technical background (such as the smart contract platform) and community support, it is still considered a potential target by some traders. Recent SEC regulatory developments (such as the appointment of new Chairman Paul S. Atkins) may affect its compliance process.