#比特币流动性危机 一. The Direct Impact of Global Liquidity Contraction
Bitcoin's year-over-year change is strongly correlated with the global M2 money supply. Data shows that Bitcoin is consistent with the global liquidity trend in 83% of any 12-month period. From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, the global M2 growth rate slowed down, and the contraction of liquidity caused Bitcoin to fall back nearly 20% from its high, reaching a low of $86,000. During this process, liquidity tightening inhibited the inflow of funds into high-risk assets, exacerbating Bitcoin's price fluctuations.
二. The Chain Reaction of Internal Market Leverage Liquidation
High-leverage trading triggers a wave of liquidations: From March to June 2025, Bitcoin experienced multiple short-term plunges. For example, 290,000 people were liquidated on March 28th, and the price plummeted from $105,000 to $100,300 on June 5th, all of which were related to the centralized liquidation of high-leverage positions in the futures market.
The liquidity black hole effect: When traditional financial markets (such as US stocks and US bonds) fall, investors prioritize selling volatile assets such as Bitcoin to replenish margin or reduce risk exposure, forming a vicious cycle of liquidity withdrawal.
三. The Transmission Effect of Macroeconomic Policies
The Fed's policy lag: Bitcoin prices usually lag global liquidity changes by about 10 weeks (56-60 days). After the Fed cut interest rates in December 2024, Bitcoin briefly rebounded but then plunged sharply, reflecting the delayed transmission of monetary policy.
The spillover risk of the US debt crisis: The United States is trying to attract 3-4 trillion US dollars of funds from the cryptocurrency market to extend the life of US debt by anchoring stablecoins to US debt through the "Stablecoin Act." If this policy triggers a run, it may further impact Bitcoin's liquidity.
