北极以北

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北极以北

加密圈的小学生，欢迎一起分享和交流。

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$BTC
Individuals still adhere to their subjective judgments, which may involve narrow personalism; however, greed, especially the greed of capital, is the most important underlying logic behind this judgment. The main force is attempting to create a false rise to significantly accumulate long positions at 98000, 95000, and 92000, and after liquidating short positions at 106500, they will turn around and deliver a direct blow to the heart. Only when the objective is achieved can it be considered a real rise. This does not constitute any opinion on investment, just a purely personal viewpoint.

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$ETH
Similarly, ETH will move in tandem with BTC, but it is relatively weaker. The MACD indicator on the 4H chart has also shown a bearish divergence. The daily chart requires a pullback, and a golden cross must form when DIF and DEA approach the 0 axis to confirm the upward trend structure, which requires patience. However, the confirmed larger trend on the weekly chart indicates that a wave of upward movement is expected in the coming months.

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$BTC
The daily MACD indicator indicates an upward trend, while the 4H level shows a bearish divergence. Therefore, in the short term, a pullback is highly likely, with support around 90000 (yellow line range). Today, testing the 95800-95200 range again is likely to still not effectively break through. There is an 85% probability of pulling back to the yellow line range before testing the resistance at 98880. Altcoins will follow BTC; pay attention to short-term risks.

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BTC Future One Week Trend Prediction

A few days ago, Big Pie shared the resistance level of the daily EMA50 (85600) with everyone in the group (not shared in the square). Currently, it appears that it has been rejected after three touches. This week, there will be a pullback, and there are two positions to pay attention to: 81600 and 75200. These are two important support levels. Additionally, there is a large amount of short liquidation near 91000, but it seems that the volume is not sufficient at the moment. The main force may pretend to be weak first, pulling back to 81600 or deeper to 75200 (considering the trade war and uncertainty with old Trump). Personally, I tend to seek support near 81600 and then aim for liquidation at the 91000 position. This week, this path will almost be completed. This sharing is just my personal opinion and should not serve as a reference for contract players (a needle can take everything), while in the spot market, adjustments can be made to supplement or reduce holdings in altcoins according to the trends of Big Pie, and then assess based on sentiment and the broader environment.

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The difficulty of the bull market in 2025 increasesThe main determining factor for whether there will be an interest rate cut in June is whether the economy is in recession. The CPI data for April and May, along with the GDP and unemployment rate data at the end of this month, will play a decisive role in the interest rate cut in June. Of course, just because there is an interest rate cut in June does not mean it is a major positive. Many friends believe that once the interest rate is cut, the cryptocurrency market will take off. This can only be described as speculative anticipation because the Federal Reserve will not cut rates prematurely if the economy is not in recession. It can only be said that speculation around interest rate cuts will bring some liquidity, and the market will rebound, but once it settles, it indicates that many large funds will choose to seek safety due to future economic recession, leading to a depletion of market liquidity, especially in the U.S. stock market. Therefore, it is important to understand the essence of the interest rate cut and to prepare and plan in advance. The trade war artificially intervenes to create 'economic recession,' and the rebound in inflation is actually a game with the Federal Reserve, which means that the risks in the market are exposed due to human intervention, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Thus, the difficulty of this bull market will increase. The cryptocurrency market differs from the U.S. stock market in that the cryptocurrency market, due to Web3 innovation, technological updates, and narrative transformation, can change very quickly. The growth environment for new projects accelerates, promoting the growth of good projects while also hastening the demise of 'poor-quality' projects. In contrast, the U.S. stock market is mainly focused on a few leading companies, where apart from the macro environment, technical overlays and company data affect stock price fluctuations. In the cryptocurrency market, new projects either take off or go to zero. Therefore, selective investment is very important for this round of the cryptocurrency market bull run. I personally prefer to refer to this bull market as a 'selective bull market.'

The difficulty of the bull market in 2025 increases

The main determining factor for whether there will be an interest rate cut in June is whether the economy is in recession. The CPI data for April and May, along with the GDP and unemployment rate data at the end of this month, will play a decisive role in the interest rate cut in June. Of course, just because there is an interest rate cut in June does not mean it is a major positive. Many friends believe that once the interest rate is cut, the cryptocurrency market will take off. This can only be described as speculative anticipation because the Federal Reserve will not cut rates prematurely if the economy is not in recession. It can only be said that speculation around interest rate cuts will bring some liquidity, and the market will rebound, but once it settles, it indicates that many large funds will choose to seek safety due to future economic recession, leading to a depletion of market liquidity, especially in the U.S. stock market. Therefore, it is important to understand the essence of the interest rate cut and to prepare and plan in advance. The trade war artificially intervenes to create 'economic recession,' and the rebound in inflation is actually a game with the Federal Reserve, which means that the risks in the market are exposed due to human intervention, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Thus, the difficulty of this bull market will increase. The cryptocurrency market differs from the U.S. stock market in that the cryptocurrency market, due to Web3 innovation, technological updates, and narrative transformation, can change very quickly. The growth environment for new projects accelerates, promoting the growth of good projects while also hastening the demise of 'poor-quality' projects. In contrast, the U.S. stock market is mainly focused on a few leading companies, where apart from the macro environment, technical overlays and company data affect stock price fluctuations. In the cryptocurrency market, new projects either take off or go to zero. Therefore, selective investment is very important for this round of the cryptocurrency market bull run. I personally prefer to refer to this bull market as a 'selective bull market.'

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$BTC experienced a historic moment yesterday. BTC broke through 100,000. At the same time, the whales started some short-selling operations. This made many people's excitement ferment to a climax before they were hit again. Since Wall Street capital began to enter the game, BTC has decided not to be a game for civilians. Those who ate dividends in the early stage have become billionaires, while those investors who have been struggling in the cottage are still fighting with the cottage. Including some popular VC projects, they are no longer friendly to civilians. Even the cooperative bureau harvesting leeks no longer supports the people's hearts, but meme is more in line with the needs of civilian investment at this time. Although there are tens of thousands of new memes issued every day and funds are infinitely divided, the funds on meme will eventually become more and more concentrated, concentrated on some high-quality leading tracks, and the practical application projects mentioned by big cousin CZ will develop for a long time. The DeSci track will be the biggest catalyst for this round of bull market. Don't say that science has nothing to do with you. Let us humans collectively decide the direction of our future. This is a very unique way. The interests of civilians need to be respected and protected.

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Although there is still a possibility of filling 50% (51430) of the August 5th needle, according to Zhuang's logic and timeline, the so-called second exploration may have already happened, that is, the bottom of the needle last week has touched 50% (53400) of the weekly level (the week starting from August 5). Now that the interest rate cut is approaching, this will definitely be hyped, and the possibility of 25 basis points is very high, but it is enough to ease the panic of investors. October is very likely to bring a wave of increases. BTC's rise in this round of 80,000-90,000 is a reference value.

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In the short term, I will be more cautious about BTC's long position (keep a little money and wait for an opportunity). First, look at the 7D liquidation near 52300, 58400 and 60000 to form a relatively concentrated short and long position liquidation. In the future, trends including CPI and interest rate cut expectations will bring the market up. Then this week, we may see the opposite trend. Liquidation of 52300 (do not rule out the needle filling 50% strategy to reach 51500) better cleans up long positions and clears obstacles for upward climbing. The current rounds of declines in high-quality altcoins have limited declines, and institutions have begun to build positions. The altcoin season may follow (although this is speculation, but be prepared for opportunities in advance). The weekly closing price in the morning was above the weekly EMA50 moving average (near 54000), which confirmed that the market was ready for the rise. However, we have to talk about the logic of institutional thinking. It is very likely that the institution will do another BTC bottom test here. The bottom test target is the liquidation hotspot of 52300. It is also very likely to complete the 50% needle filling of the 8.5-day line (near 51500). After completing these tests and collecting liquidity, the real rise will come. The best opportunity to complete this test will be around the announcement of the August CPI annual rate at 20:30 on Wednesday night. Is it clear? Thank you very much for your support. The above analysis does not constitute any suggestion for the contract.

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BTC inscription track, purely personal research results, please don’t criticize if you don’t like it: the top four inscriptions are ranked as follows: 1. SATA (686 million) 2. ORDI (592 million) 3. Rats (103 million) 4. PIZZA (94 million) There is still a lot of room, especially the data from the previous period showed that the whales have basically completed their positions. The possibility of a drop is not ruled out, so do your own research and find opportunities to ambush. Personally, subjectively, the highest market value of the top two inscriptions in the bull market is estimated to be 10 billion, and PIZZA can enter the top three because of its own IP advantages. The total market value in the bull market is conservatively estimated to be 3-4 billion. If the total amount of Rats and SATA is calculated based on 21 million pieces, the current prices are 33.37 dollars for sats, 28.69 dollars for ordi, 4.958 dollars for Rats, and 4.544 dollars for pizza. This is the research result this morning, and I would like to share it with you. (Prices and market values are based on 8 am on September 8, 2024)

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Updated chart. Due to the release of employment and unemployment data yesterday, we need to wait and observe. Now we can judge that the institutions are approaching their expectations for rate cuts and start the final liquidity test. At present, the weekly needle starting on August 5 has been filled by 50% (53557), and it has rebounded to within the blue trend line. There will be a rebound here. The daily line is not sure whether it will rebound here and fill 100% of the August 5 needle filling strategy (49000). We need to wait until next Wednesday to determine whether to start a rebound from here. The red box (60600-61600) is an important short-term resistance level. A breakthrough will reach the upper boundary of the blue trend line (judgment will be made at that time). If the Fed starts to cut interest rates around September 18 (with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut), then the current liquidity shortage scenario can be alleviated. Before QE, at least investors' concerns about economic recession will be alleviated due to policy changes. If this is the case, BTC will fluctuate in a range for some time. There is a high probability that there will be a wave of rise in October. There are several reasons for this: 1. Various speculations as the election approaches; 2. The sentiment of policy implementation has eased slightly, and funds have begun to deploy in advance; 3. Market hot spots will speculate QE in advance to restore market confidence. Wish us good luck.

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The long positions in the 56600-57000 range were liquidated thoroughly, and a lot of short positions have been liquidated at the 61300 position. This time, BTC did not directly liquidate 61300 but liquidated the long positions in the 56600-57000 range in advance. It can be seen that the dog market is a bit hungry and has no choice, just because the interest rate cut is imminent and the US stock market is risky, which will directly affect the inflow of funds in the currency market.

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The 1H EMA50 moving average breaks through and needs to hold this support level, and the liquidation at 61300 is stable

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The purpose of BTC dog dealer is quite clear. It is to accumulate more long positions in the 56600-57000 range. First, liquidate short positions near 61300. Then... you know it all.

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Seeing that the liquidation cluster of 56600-57000 is about to be liquidated, but the dog dealer took the initiative to show weakness and did not liquidate in one go, then it is very likely that the short positions will be liquidated at 61300 first, and more long positions at 56600-57000 will be accumulated. So here I can make a preliminary judgment that the market will move closer to 61300 on Monday and find an opportunity to liquidate the short positions here, and the purpose is to accumulate more long positions at 56600-57000. At the beginning of the week, the market often moves in the opposite direction of the real target, and when a certain profit is accumulated, the dog dealer will take action. To summarize my personal judgment: first go to 61300 to liquidate the short positions, and then accumulate 56600-57000 long positions at this position, and they will be liquidated.

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The conspiracy theory of the institution seems that the current price trend is very close to 56600-57000, but looking at the 4H level, many dense needles have been formed. If the position of 57700 still cannot fall below the 56600-57000 range for liquidation in the next 24 hours, then the conspiracy theory of the institution will become a reality. If the long liquidation that is close at hand is not liquidated, the liquidation position of 61300 will be directly pulled from 57700. The purpose is to form a larger long liquidation in the 56600-57000 range. After liquidating the short position, it will quickly fall to the 56600-57000 range for the liquidation of the long position. This is also what the platform likes to see in order to increase liquidity and increase trading volume.

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We have seen a lot of liquidation hotspots in the 56600-57000 range, and we have also seen some liquidations at 61300. Next Monday, we will generally see a movement in the opposite direction of the real trajectory of the market next week at the beginning, and the purpose is to concentrate more long or short liquidations in these two liquidation areas. If the long positions in the 56600-57000 range are directly liquidated on Sunday and Monday, then there is a high probability that it will rebound here and then go to 61300 to liquidate short positions. If you go to 61300 to liquidate shorts first, then the goal is still to concentrate more long liquidations at 56600-57000. Although we use the data of the contract here, our purpose is to find the price trend (liquidity) to manage the spot position. It is not recommended that everyone should have contracts. Although the platform may not like my suggestion, I still have to say that contracts are not recommended.

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There are two relatively concentrated areas for BTC liquidation, around 61300 and 57000. Let's observe the trend on Sunday and try to predict which position will be touched first.

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BTC is rather entangled and hesitant at point D of the small flag, seemingly waiting for something. The PCE data and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released last night laid the foundation for a rate cut in September, and did not show a deterioration in the economy, but data can be faked 😂, so we need to be patient and wait together. The main force is not around at the weekend, and low liquidity can easily cause a surge or plunge. The general direction still needs to wait for the reaction of the US stock market on Monday.

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Today we will look at a demon coin - $TRB. Why is it called a demon coin? Those who understand will understand. There is a mysterious force behind it. I will not elaborate on it here. Let's take a look at the market maker's control and some interesting observations. After TRB created a new high, it started from a normal high point (the beginning of the orange line) and fell twice to the bottom. After 106 days, it broke through the downward trend line. Within a week, it broke through and created a high point (the starting point of the blue line), and the increase was about 240%. At present, it has experienced another 107 days of decline. Although it has not formed a double bottom structure, it has broken through the trend line, and within a week, it has retreated to the blue trend line to temporarily confirm the support. If the market maker also pulls the market like last time, the purple resistance line position is exactly 240% higher than the 8.5-day low. Of course, this is all a guessing. History is always amazing. We can bet on the precise rules of the market maker's quirks. Besides, it is relatively low at present. The profit and loss ratio of buying some positions is still acceptable. During this period, we need to observe the resistance range formed by the red box position. If it breaks through, we can wait for the test of the purple resistance level (143.7). Investing in spot is prudent and stable. Don't rush blindly. (Note: This does not constitute any suggestion on the contract)

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4H multiple tests confirmed that there is a rebound, the strength is not easy to grasp, let's see if it can complete the E point of the small flag. Read the article from a macro perspective.

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