Short-term BTC Trend The first target is around 12300, where the short liquidation will be completed. Next, the main force will first aim at liquidating long positions around 117000. At this position, based on the trend, they will choose to either consolidate for a while or test the selling pressure a bit lower before choosing a direction again. Personally, I lean towards the trend in Figure 2️⃣, consolidating for a while to get altcoins moving, otherwise it won't look good for the first half of the year 😂
Add a chart of ETH trends, what a joke? BTC drops while ETH rises? I must be mistaken 😂
北极以北
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Short-term BTC Trend The first target is around 12300, where the short liquidation will be completed. Next, the main force will first aim at liquidating long positions around 117000. At this position, based on the trend, they will choose to either consolidate for a while or test the selling pressure a bit lower before choosing a direction again. Personally, I lean towards the trend in Figure 2️⃣, consolidating for a while to get altcoins moving, otherwise it won't look good for the first half of the year 😂
Short-term BTC Trend The first target is around 12300, where the short liquidation will be completed. Next, the main force will first aim at liquidating long positions around 117000. At this position, based on the trend, they will choose to either consolidate for a while or test the selling pressure a bit lower before choosing a direction again. Personally, I lean towards the trend in Figure 2️⃣, consolidating for a while to get altcoins moving, otherwise it won't look good for the first half of the year 😂
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$BTC The daily chart is forming a bullish pattern and is currently testing point E. If there is strong support around 106500, it is very likely that a breakout at point E will continue to rise. During this process, I personally believe that altcoins will experience a strong upward trend.
It's just unnecessary worry. Anyway, there isn't much BTC.
PhyrexNi
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To say something unpleasant, a lot of friends are either worried about $MSTR crashing or about ancient $BTC coming out to dump, or they are worried about $IBIT investors selling off. Friends who worry every day about Bitcoin going to zero, I wonder how much BTC you actually have. Although I don't have much, I really don't worry about it.
I haven't seen Lao Xu or CZ come out and lament, "Oh dear, if so many ancient BTC really dump, how much will my assets shrink? If BTC really goes to zero, will my $OKB / $BNB also go to zero? Oh dear, I'm so worried."
Because if so many BTC were to leave the market, they wouldn't be foolish enough to dump it all at once on the exchange. If it really were to dump all at once, it would actually be the best time to buy the dip. After all, the fundamental narrative of BTC hasn't changed. If panic could really occur because of tens of thousands of BTC, then BTC wouldn't have made it to where it is today.
Honestly, it would be better to worry about whether the U.S. selling gold to buy BTC might create a big hole in the gold market.
These thoughts are really overthinking it. This kind of worry should be left to BlackRock and the like. They are not in a hurry, so what are we worried about?
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$BTC Individuals still adhere to their subjective judgments, which may involve narrow personalism; however, greed, especially the greed of capital, is the most important underlying logic behind this judgment. The main force is attempting to create a false rise to significantly accumulate long positions at 98000, 95000, and 92000, and after liquidating short positions at 106500, they will turn around and deliver a direct blow to the heart. Only when the objective is achieved can it be considered a real rise. This does not constitute any opinion on investment, just a purely personal viewpoint.
$BTC When I block out the noise of the market, calm down to study the charts and data, I find that three major trading platforms liquidated about 2.8 billion 💲 in short positions around 106,500, and about 13.7 billion 💲 in long positions around 92,000. It interestingly draws a predictive path chart. I don't bet on human nature; I bet against it. For the foreseeable future, as long as it touches around 106,000, I will reduce my position and hold USDT, waiting for opportunities. Let time validate.
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$ETH Similarly, ETH will move in tandem with BTC, but it is relatively weaker. The MACD indicator on the 4H chart has also shown a bearish divergence. The daily chart requires a pullback, and a golden cross must form when DIF and DEA approach the 0 axis to confirm the upward trend structure, which requires patience. However, the confirmed larger trend on the weekly chart indicates that a wave of upward movement is expected in the coming months.
$BTC The daily MACD indicator indicates an upward trend, while the 4H level shows a bearish divergence. Therefore, in the short term, a pullback is highly likely, with support around 90000 (yellow line range). Today, testing the 95800-95200 range again is likely to still not effectively break through. There is an 85% probability of pulling back to the yellow line range before testing the resistance at 98880. Altcoins will follow BTC; pay attention to short-term risks.
A few days ago, Big Pie shared the resistance level of the daily EMA50 (85600) with everyone in the group (not shared in the square). Currently, it appears that it has been rejected after three touches. This week, there will be a pullback, and there are two positions to pay attention to: 81600 and 75200. These are two important support levels. Additionally, there is a large amount of short liquidation near 91000, but it seems that the volume is not sufficient at the moment. The main force may pretend to be weak first, pulling back to 81600 or deeper to 75200 (considering the trade war and uncertainty with old Trump). Personally, I tend to seek support near 81600 and then aim for liquidation at the 91000 position. This week, this path will almost be completed. This sharing is just my personal opinion and should not serve as a reference for contract players (a needle can take everything), while in the spot market, adjustments can be made to supplement or reduce holdings in altcoins according to the trends of Big Pie, and then assess based on sentiment and the broader environment.
The difficulty of the bull market in 2025 increases
The main determining factor for whether there will be an interest rate cut in June is whether the economy is in recession. The CPI data for April and May, along with the GDP and unemployment rate data at the end of this month, will play a decisive role in the interest rate cut in June. Of course, just because there is an interest rate cut in June does not mean it is a major positive. Many friends believe that once the interest rate is cut, the cryptocurrency market will take off. This can only be described as speculative anticipation because the Federal Reserve will not cut rates prematurely if the economy is not in recession. It can only be said that speculation around interest rate cuts will bring some liquidity, and the market will rebound, but once it settles, it indicates that many large funds will choose to seek safety due to future economic recession, leading to a depletion of market liquidity, especially in the U.S. stock market. Therefore, it is important to understand the essence of the interest rate cut and to prepare and plan in advance. The trade war artificially intervenes to create 'economic recession,' and the rebound in inflation is actually a game with the Federal Reserve, which means that the risks in the market are exposed due to human intervention, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Thus, the difficulty of this bull market will increase. The cryptocurrency market differs from the U.S. stock market in that the cryptocurrency market, due to Web3 innovation, technological updates, and narrative transformation, can change very quickly. The growth environment for new projects accelerates, promoting the growth of good projects while also hastening the demise of 'poor-quality' projects. In contrast, the U.S. stock market is mainly focused on a few leading companies, where apart from the macro environment, technical overlays and company data affect stock price fluctuations. In the cryptocurrency market, new projects either take off or go to zero. Therefore, selective investment is very important for this round of the cryptocurrency market bull run. I personally prefer to refer to this bull market as a 'selective bull market.'
$BTC experienced a historic moment yesterday. BTC broke through 100,000. At the same time, the whales started some short-selling operations. This made many people's excitement ferment to a climax before they were hit again. Since Wall Street capital began to enter the game, BTC has decided not to be a game for civilians. Those who ate dividends in the early stage have become billionaires, while those investors who have been struggling in the cottage are still fighting with the cottage. Including some popular VC projects, they are no longer friendly to civilians. Even the cooperative bureau harvesting leeks no longer supports the people's hearts, but meme is more in line with the needs of civilian investment at this time. Although there are tens of thousands of new memes issued every day and funds are infinitely divided, the funds on meme will eventually become more and more concentrated, concentrated on some high-quality leading tracks, and the practical application projects mentioned by big cousin CZ will develop for a long time. The DeSci track will be the biggest catalyst for this round of bull market. Don't say that science has nothing to do with you. Let us humans collectively decide the direction of our future. This is a very unique way. The interests of civilians need to be respected and protected.
Although there is still a possibility of filling 50% (51430) of the August 5th needle, according to Zhuang's logic and timeline, the so-called second exploration may have already happened, that is, the bottom of the needle last week has touched 50% (53400) of the weekly level (the week starting from August 5). Now that the interest rate cut is approaching, this will definitely be hyped, and the possibility of 25 basis points is very high, but it is enough to ease the panic of investors. October is very likely to bring a wave of increases. BTC's rise in this round of 80,000-90,000 is a reference value.
In the short term, I will be more cautious about BTC's long position (keep a little money and wait for an opportunity). First, look at the 7D liquidation near 52300, 58400 and 60000 to form a relatively concentrated short and long position liquidation. In the future, trends including CPI and interest rate cut expectations will bring the market up. Then this week, we may see the opposite trend. Liquidation of 52300 (do not rule out the needle filling 50% strategy to reach 51500) better cleans up long positions and clears obstacles for upward climbing. The current rounds of declines in high-quality altcoins have limited declines, and institutions have begun to build positions. The altcoin season may follow (although this is speculation, but be prepared for opportunities in advance). The weekly closing price in the morning was above the weekly EMA50 moving average (near 54000), which confirmed that the market was ready for the rise. However, we have to talk about the logic of institutional thinking. It is very likely that the institution will do another BTC bottom test here. The bottom test target is the liquidation hotspot of 52300. It is also very likely to complete the 50% needle filling of the 8.5-day line (near 51500). After completing these tests and collecting liquidity, the real rise will come. The best opportunity to complete this test will be around the announcement of the August CPI annual rate at 20:30 on Wednesday night. Is it clear? Thank you very much for your support. The above analysis does not constitute any suggestion for the contract.