Updated chart. Due to the release of employment and unemployment data yesterday, we need to wait and observe. Now we can judge that the institutions are approaching their expectations for rate cuts and start the final liquidity test. At present, the weekly needle starting on August 5 has been filled by 50% (53557), and it has rebounded to within the blue trend line. There will be a rebound here. The daily line is not sure whether it will rebound here and fill 100% of the August 5 needle filling strategy (49000). We need to wait until next Wednesday to determine whether to start a rebound from here. The red box (60600-61600) is an important short-term resistance level. A breakthrough will reach the upper boundary of the blue trend line (judgment will be made at that time). If the Fed starts to cut interest rates around September 18 (with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut), then the current liquidity shortage scenario can be alleviated. Before QE, at least investors' concerns about economic recession will be alleviated due to policy changes. If this is the case, BTC will fluctuate in a range for some time. There is a high probability that there will be a wave of rise in October. There are several reasons for this: 1. Various speculations as the election approaches; 2. The sentiment of policy implementation has eased slightly, and funds have begun to deploy in advance; 3. Market hot spots will speculate QE in advance to restore market confidence. Wish us good luck.