LaoXu

As of June 15, 2025, the overall situation of BTC this week is in a fluctuating state. The current price is $105,352, up 0.45% from the previous day. After experiencing geopolitical shocks the day before, it has gradually stabilized and rebounded, with the market holding steady at the key support level of $105,000. Institutional funds continue to flow in, with a net inflow of $1.37 billion into ETFs this week. The technical analysis shows a mild rebound pattern after a period of consolidation. Under the baseline scenario, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of $104,500 - $106,500; in an optimistic scenario, it may break through the resistance at $106,200 and test $108,000 upwards; in a pessimistic scenario, if it loses the support at $104,300, it will retest the low point of $103,000.

#特朗普比特币金库 Trump's media layout has both advantages and disadvantages for Bitcoin. On one hand, his actions can increase market attention, create a demonstration effect, promote the integration of the crypto market with traditional finance, and drive mainstream adoption; on the other hand, there are concerns about conflicts of interest, significant regulatory uncertainty, and Bitcoin price volatility may exacerbate market risks, increasing political risks in the crypto market.

In the blockchain field, ADA is the native cryptocurrency of the Cardano blockchain platform and is also the world's first third-generation blockchain project constructed through scientific philosophy and peer-reviewed research. Its advantages include a unique dual-architecture design of settlement and computation layers, which enhances system efficiency; the use of mathematically verified proof-of-stake protocols, resulting in low energy consumption; all protocol upgrades are ensured by mathematical proof, ensuring system security; and it supports the construction of various applications such as decentralized finance and identity verification. Its disadvantages include a slower development pace compared to competitors, smart contract functionality still being improved, and facing uncertainties in regulatory policies across countries.

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 这一提议有积极意义。购买比特币可借助其成熟市场提升ADA影响力，原生稳定币能完善DeFi生态。若成功，将吸引更多用户和资金，推动ADA成为DeFi重要平台，长期看或促其价值上升。不过，当前市场不稳定，且卡尔达诺自身存在技术瓶颈和社区治理争议，如单线程架构在极端场景下可能引发拥堵，社区对治理问题也存在分歧，这些因素都增加了提议实施的不确定性与风险，ADA长期价值走向有待观察。

$ETH Below are the trading suggestions for ETH:

### Short-term Strategy
Current ETH price is around $2500 (as of June 9, 2025), the 4-hour cycle shows a short-term bullish trend but attention is needed on the breakthrough of key resistance levels. If the price tests MA30 (around 2501) or does not break the support level of 2442, and the MACD maintains a golden cross, one can buy on dips with a target of 2615, and if broken, look towards 2738, setting a stop loss below 2440; if the price fails to break the 2615 resistance, and the MACD shows a death cross, one can cautiously short, targeting 2442, and if broken, look towards 2345, setting a stop loss above 2620. The current 30-day increase is 60.53%, and there is significant short-term pullback pressure, so avoid chasing highs; if the price oscillates in the range of 2442 - 2615, one can temporarily wait and watch for a breakout signal.

### Long-term Strategy
For holding ETH long-term, attention should be paid to its fundamentals and industry development trends. The Pectra upgrade brings technical advantages, and institutional capital inflows also create positive conditions. One can consider fixed monthly purchases (dollar-cost averaging) to reduce the impact of volatility; if the BlackRock ETF proposal is passed, staking returns may increase. However, be cautious of competitive pressures and regulatory uncertainties, and set stop-loss discipline, controlling the risk of a single trade to 1% - 2% of the principal, and consider allocating some BTC, SOL, and other competitive assets to hedge risks.

$BTC 以下是最近BTC的操作建议：

### Short-term Strategy
The current BTC price is $103,933, showing a volatile downward trend, influenced by geopolitical risks and unstable market sentiment. If the price can stabilize in the range of $105,800 - $106,000, it may trigger an oversold rebound. Aggressive traders can consider opening long positions with a stop loss set below $105,300; if it breaks the key support level of $101,000, it may further retrace to around $98,000, at which point caution is advised to avoid blind bottom-fishing. If the rebound breaks through $111,000, it may be appropriate to take profits and lock in short-term gains.

### Medium to Long-term Strategy
From a medium to long-term perspective, the fundamentals of BTC are solid. If the price breaks below the $100,000 mark, it may be wise to gradually increase positions in anticipation of the next wave of upward movement. However, overall market uncertainty still exists, and strict risk control is necessary.

#以色列伊朗冲突
**Response Strategy**: In the face of short-term high volatility, it is advisable to reduce positions to avoid risks, prioritize protecting the principal, and avoid emotional trading; long-term investors can gradually allocate to high-quality assets that have been unjustly punished (such as ETH).

**Market Judgment**: The current reaction is more due to short-term sell-offs stemming from geopolitical panic, but if the conflict escalates or triggers a chain of sanctions, it may exacerbate liquidity risks in the cryptocurrency market. Close attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's policy direction.

Recent WCT negative factors dominate #TradersLeague . In terms of price, it has fallen from 1.37U to 0.43U, with a significant drop and no signs of rebound, the market is sluggish, and bears are dominant. On the technical side, the 4-hour MACD shows a soaring red column, KDJ has entered the oversold zone and is still in a death cross, with volume-price divergence + contract negative fee rate, indicating a potential reversal but overall still appears weak. In addition, it faces legal disputes and regulatory risks, such as the World Cup theme potentially involving copyright litigation, and the tightening of global cryptocurrency regulations limiting its application scenarios. Although there are positive factors such as technical ecology and ecosystem support, it is difficult to reverse the situation in the short term.

Recently, there are many bearish factors for BTC. On the morning of June 12, BTC experienced a strong pullback, with the price dropping over a thousand points, breaking below the short-term support of 109,000, and reaching around 108,000 at a low point. A long upper shadow appeared on the daily chart, and after being blocked at 110,392, it quickly fell back. Heavy selling pressure is expected in the short term, with a continuous bearish structure forming in the 4-hour chart. The EMA7 has formed a death cross with the price, and short-term bullish sentiment has weakened. A continuation of the pullback is expected, and if it breaks below the key support level, the price may decline further. However, there are also some positive factors. Institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin continues to rise, with companies like MicroStrategy increasing their holdings, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and an increase in miners' output, all supporting a bullish outlook in the medium to long term. In addition, the U.S. has passed the 'Digital Asset Market Transparency Act,' and the improvement of the regulatory framework is expected to attract more institutional funds.

This plan is highly likely to exacerbate global trade tensions. The United States' unilateral 'either accept or give up' approach to imposing tariffs undermines trade rules and will make trade partners resentful and resistant. For the United States, there may be short-term negotiating leverage, but it will harm its own economy and international image in the long run.

The global market will be under pressure as a result, with increased volatility in the stock and currency markets. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market will also be affected, leading to heightened risk aversion among investors, capital outflows from the crypto space, and potential declines in coin prices.

$ETH This week (June 9, 2025 - June 15, 2025) ETH has the following positive news:
1. On June 11, the price of Ethereum was approximately $2,818, with a 24-hour trading volume of $38.01 billion and a total market capitalization of $340.61 billion, breaking through the $2,800 resistance level, reaching a recent high, and showing a strong upward trend.
2. Recently, Ethereum ETFs have continued to see net inflows, significantly outperforming Bitcoin. There are rumors that BlackRock has reduced its holdings in some Bitcoin ETF positions and shifted to increase its exposure to ETH, indicating institutional confidence in it.
3. The Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem continues to develop, which is a long-term positive for the price. The previous upgrade of the Pectra mainnet was postponed to Q3 due to vulnerabilities in the testnet; if successful, it will optimize Layer 2 performance, and transaction costs may drop to $0.001.

DeFi developers possess both technological innovation and financial service attributes, and their responsibilities need to balance innovation incentives with risk prevention. Code, as a medium of expression, should be protected by the Constitution; however, if developers are aware that their protocols are being used for fraud or market manipulation and still take no action, they should bear corresponding responsibilities. Regulation should shift to a model of 'protocol transparency + accountability for actions': requiring key smart contracts to undergo security audits and disclose parameters, while accurately targeting malicious use of protocols instead of simply holding developers accountable. Future regulation needs to establish mechanisms for code registration, risk warning, and cross-chain tracking to achieve a dynamic balance between technological innovation and financial stability.

#实用交易工具 I often use RSI and MACD indicators. I chose them because RSI can intuitively reflect overbought and oversold conditions, quickly judging the possibility of price reversals; MACD, on the other hand, is precise in capturing trends and can identify medium to long-term buy and sell signals. When used together, I first look at the short-term strength through RSI, and then use MACD to confirm the trend direction, improving judgment accuracy.

Recently, I traded a certain stock, and RSI showed oversold conditions, which initially gave me a buying intention. Then I looked at MACD; its fast and slow lines were about to form a golden cross and the green bars were shrinking, confirming an upward trend. Therefore, I decisively bought in, and subsequently the stock price rose, with the indicators helping me make the correct decision.

$ETH ETH has significant advantages. It is a mature smart contract platform with a well-established technical architecture, allowing developers to create complex decentralized applications and automatically execute smart contracts, leading to widespread applications. The ecosystem is robust, featuring non-fungible tokens, decentralized finance, games, etc., which drive value appreciation. An upgrade is expected to be completed by 2025, addressing scalability, energy consumption, and other issues, improving transaction speed and reducing costs. It enjoys high market acceptance, is tradable on mainstream exchanges, and has good liquidity. However, it also has drawbacks. Prices are easily affected by market sentiment, regulations, technology, and other factors, leading to high volatility. It faces competition from other blockchain platforms such as Solana and Polkadot, which provide more solutions and capture some market share. There can be vulnerabilities in smart contract coding, leading to attacks on contracts, posing security risks. Transaction fees can be high during network congestion, impacting user experience.

This move is likely to increase the attention and accessibility of altcoins among traditional investors. As a well-known trading platform, Nasdaq's proposal to include XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in the cryptocurrency benchmark index signifies that these altcoins are making strides into the mainstream financial sector, potentially attracting more traditional investors. If approved by the SEC, the Hashdex ETF could invest in these cryptocurrencies, further increasing their liquidity and market depth, lowering investment barriers, and enhancing accessibility. For portfolio strategies, if approved, it may be worth considering an appropriate allocation to these altcoins for diversified returns, but one must be cautious of their high volatility and regulatory uncertainties.

In the next week, BTC is bullish. Recently, the BTC price has been fluctuating around $105,000 - $106,000. Although it faces a critical directional choice, overall, it still has upward momentum. From the market sentiment perspective, global risk aversion has brought attention to BTC, and institutional investors' holdings continue to increase, providing strong support for its price. On the technical front, if it breaks through the $107,000 resistance, it may quickly test $110,000 and trigger a short squeeze, targeting $115,000 - $120,000; if it loses the $104,800 support, it may fall back to the $100,000 whale cost area, or even test $92,000. However, the current BTC price is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.

The recent US-China trade negotiations have brought both substantial progress and uncertainty. On one hand, both parties are willing to communicate, and Trump has expressed optimism; on the other hand, the trade differences are complex, making it difficult to reach a comprehensive agreement. If the negotiations yield positive results, global market sentiment this week will be boosted, with the stock market and commodity markets expected to rise, enhancing investor confidence; however, if progress is limited or stagnates, the market may come under pressure again, with increased risk aversion and heightened volatility in the stock and foreign exchange markets.

#看懂K线 Understanding K-line can refer to the following techniques:
1. Understand the composition of K-line, which consists of the body, upper shadow, and lower shadow. The body reflects the relationship between the opening price and the closing price, while the upper and lower shadows reflect the highest and lowest prices, respectively.
2. Combine K-line cycle analysis, such as daily K-line suitable for short-term, weekly K-line and monthly K-line suitable for medium to long-term, with different cycles reflecting market trends over different time spans.
3. Observe the yin-yang attributes of K-line to judge the overall market trend; a yang line indicates an uptrend, while a yin line indicates a downtrend.
4. Pay attention to K-line patterns, such as a large yang line indicating bullish dominance, a large yin line indicating bearish dominance, and a doji star suggesting a possible reversal.
5. Focus on K-line combinations, like double bottom and dark cloud cover, which have different market meanings.
6. Combine trading volume to determine buy and sell signals; volume-price matching is more reliable.

In 2017, when I first entered the market, my biggest mistake was blindly chasing popular stocks without doing any research, resulting in losses. This made me understand that investing cannot be impulsive. Improving trading discipline relies on creating a strict trading plan and resolutely executing it, as well as summarizing and reviewing daily.

Advice for beginners: First, systematically learn trading knowledge and do not enter the market blindly; create a plan before entering, set stop-loss and take-profit levels; stay calm, do not be influenced by market emotions, and patiently wait for opportunities.

In the coming month, the BTC trend may rise first and then fall. Recently, the price has shown an upward trend. Although there was pressure and fluctuations on June 8, it successfully defended the psychological level of 100,000 USD beforehand. Additionally, factors such as positive ETF capital flows and improved market sentiment support this. If it can break through the resistance of 106,000 USD, it is expected to reach 107,000 - 110,000 USD. However, the VWAP channel pressure and MACD divergence indicate resistance to the rise. If it falls below 104,500 USD, it may correct to 100,000 - 102,000 USD. Overall, the probability of an increase is slightly higher, but caution is needed regarding market volatility risks.