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$TREE $TREE is the stock code for Zillow Group, Inc., an online real estate service company in the United States (Note: Zillow previously used the code $Z, but due to business adjustments and other reasons, some related stocks have used $TREE ; specifics should be confirmed in conjunction with the latest company structure). The following is a brief analysis from the perspectives of core business, financial performance, and market factors:

1. Core Business

Zillow primarily provides real estate information platform services, including:

• Home buying and selling information queries, valuation tools (Zestimate);

• Real estate brokerage services, mortgage-related businesses;

• Previously launched the “iBuying” (instant home purchasing) business, which directly acquires properties for resale, but this business has significantly contracted due to market fluctuations.

2. Key Financial and Operational Indicators

• Revenue Structure: Mainly derived from platform advertising, brokerage service commissions, and mortgage business. The iBuying business significantly impacts revenue, but profit fluctuations are also notable.

• Profitability: Significantly affected by real estate market cycles. During market booms, home transactions are active, leading to revenue and profit growth; during market downturns, transactions decrease, and the iBuying business may face asset impairment due to price fluctuations.

• Liabilities and Cash Flow: The real estate industry has high capital requirements, necessitating attention to the company's short-term debt repayment ability and operational cash flow stability.

3. Core Factors Affecting Stock Price

1. The U.S. real estate market cycle: Interest rate policies (Federal Reserve rate hikes/cuts affecting mortgage costs), housing price trends, and supply-demand relationships directly impact business volume.

2. iBuying business strategy: While this business can enhance revenue, it must bear the risk of price fluctuations; the company's decisions regarding its expansion or contraction will affect market confidence.

3. Industry competition: Facing competitive pressure from other real estate platforms (such as Redfin), traditional brokerage firms, and tech giants.

4. Macroeconomic factors: Risks of economic recession, changes in unemployment rates, etc., can indirectly influence the activity level of the real estate market.

Summary

The performance of $TREE is highly tied to the U.S. real estate market cycle, and investors should pay close attention to interest rate policies, housing price trends, and the impact of company business adjustments (especially the iBuying business) on performance. Due to the significant volatility in the real estate industry, this stock also presents certain cyclical risks.

#比特币流动性危机 比特币流动性危机是指比特币市场中供应和需求严重失衡，导致市场流动性急剧下降的情况。以下是关于比特币流动性危机的一些介绍：

• 当前状况：2025年以来，比特币出现流动性萎缩的趋势，表现为交易所库存下降、ETF持续吸筹、冷钱包锁仓飙升、Dormancy指数逼近历史高位，现货可得性正在系统性崩塌，比特币正从交易性资产变成只可远观的信仰锚，可交易性日渐消失。

• 引发因素：一方面，大量资金涌入市场，投资者对比特币的需求迅速增加，而比特币总量有限且产出速度相对稳定，导致短期内市场上可供交易的比特币数量无法满足需求。另一方面，一些投资者选择长期持有比特币，不愿意在市场上出售，进一步减少了供应量。此外，市场恐慌情绪也会加剧流动性危机，投资者看到价格大幅波动时，可能会选择观望或急于卖出，导致交易更加混乱，流动性进一步下降。

• 影响：流动性危机可能导致交易成本上升，价格波动加剧。如2025年8月5日的加密货币崩溃期间，币安美国的比特币价格与流动性更强的平台上的价格出现差异，一些交易所和交易对的比特币滑点有所增加。从更宏观的角度看，比特币流动性危机还可能引发整个加密货币市场的连锁反应，导致市场信心下降，资金流出，甚至对传统金融市场产生一定的溢出效应。

• 相关数据：2024年以来，比特币现货需求同比激增432%，美国现货比特币ETF单日吸金超3.5亿美元，近三个月累计流入逾14亿美元，但卖方流动性储备仅能支撑12个月。

• 市场观点：有观点认为比特币正在走向被市场极度稀缺化的阶段，这对于交易所而言是难以接受的，因为它们需要交易深度和挂单厚度来维持手续费收入，所以可能会制造新的叙事焦点来维持市场循环。

#稳定币监管风暴 稳定币监管风暴是全球范围内针对稳定币的一系列监管举措及相关动态，旨在规范稳定币市场，防范金融风险，维护金融稳定与安全。以下是相关介绍：

背景原因

• 稳定币规模扩大与风险凸显：稳定币已从边缘支付工具发展为全球支付系统的重要组成部分，总市值不断增长。但2022年Terra UST算法稳定币崩溃，引发数百亿美元损失，暴露了稳定币的风险，促使全球加强监管。

• 防范非法金融活动：稳定币依托区块链技术，资金跨境流动匿名，易被用于洗钱等非法活动，增加了监管难度，威胁金融秩序，因此各国需加强监管以遏制此类行为。

• 维护货币主权与金融稳定：稳定币大多与美元挂钩，可能削弱其他国家货币主权，引发新兴经济体资本外逃，在金融体系薄弱的国家还易引发信任危机与挤兑风险，故各国为维护自身金融利益加强监管。

主要监管举措

• 美国《天才法案》：当地时间2025年7月18日，美国总统特朗普签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》。该法案为锚定美元的加密货币稳定币制定监管框架，要求稳定币以1:1的比例与美元挂钩，明确了储备资产类别、信息披露与审计机制等关键条款。

• 中国香港《稳定币条例》：2025年5月21日，香港特区立法会正式三读通过《稳定币条例草案》，8月1日生效。条例规定发行稳定币需向香港金融管理局申请牌照，储备资产需由优质、高流动性资产组成，且要符合反洗钱等监管要求，旨在推动香港从“加密枢纽”升级为“合规稳定币发行中心”。

• 欧盟《加密资产市场法规》：欧盟出台《加密资产市场法规》（MiCA）试图对稳定币实施严格控制，以应对以美元计价的稳定币在欧洲蔓延，影响欧洲央行货币政策有效性等问题。

$SUI Sui is a decentralized, permissionless Layer-1 blockchain launched in 2023, developed by Mysten Labs. Here is an analysis of Sui:

• Technical Features:

◦ Object-Centric Data Model: Each digital asset is a unique, mutable object with a unique owner, which accelerates ownership transfer and update speed, enables parallel transaction execution, enhances throughput, reduces latency, and is beneficial for the development of highly interactive applications such as games and DeFi.

◦ Move Programming Language: Supports Sui with features like 'default safety' to prevent malicious attacks, alleviates the burden on developers, and accelerates dApp development. Its programmable transaction block function allows a single transaction to atomically call multiple Move functions, improving gas efficiency and enhancing code composability.

◦ Consensus Mechanism: Uses a Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) system, centered around the Mysticeti consensus protocol. Simple transactions can quickly settle by bypassing the full consensus mechanism, while complex transactions utilize Narwhal and Bullshark to achieve robust ordering, avoiding bottlenecks in sequential processing and supporting horizontal scaling.

◦ Zero-Knowledge (ZK) Login: Users can access dApps on Sui using Web2 credentials, lowering the entry barrier and improving user experience.

• Ecosystem Development:

◦ Project Collaborations: In June 2025, Sui partnered with multiple projects including OVERTAKE and WAYE.ai to enrich its ecosystem. Meanwhile, Nautilus, an important part of the Sui technology stack, launched on the mainnet to help developers build verifiable and tamper-proof oracles and off-chain processes.

◦ Community Building: The Athens SuiHub Innovation Center has been established to provide hands-on training and support for developers and users. The second phase of the Sui Foundation's Hydropower Accelerator has concluded, with 12 projects receiving commercialization guidance. Additionally, the Sui Overflow hackathon awarded 36 projects, stimulating developer enthusiasm.

◦ Market Prospects: Nasdaq has submitted an application to the SEC to list the SUI ETF, which, if successful, will broaden investor participation in the Sui ecosystem. Currently, over $300 million has been invested globally in SUI-based exchange-traded products, demonstrating institutional recognition of its ecosystem.

• Token Economics:

◦ Wide Applications: SUI is the native token of the Sui network, used for paying gas fees, participating in network security staking to earn rewards, and granting governance rights to holders, allowing participation in on-chain voting. Additionally, it is traded on DeFi platforms.

#Chainbase上线币安 According to the official announcement, Binance Alpha will launch Chainbase (token abbreviation: C) on July 14, 2025, at 20:00 (UTC+8), and trading will commence.

After trading begins, users holding at least 160 Binance Alpha points can claim airdrops of 750 C tokens on a first-come, first-served basis, until the airdrop pool is exhausted or the event ends. Claiming the airdrop will consume 15 Binance Alpha points, and users must confirm their claim on the Alpha event page within 24 hours, otherwise it will be regarded as a forfeiture of the airdrop claim.

@Lagrange Official #lagrange $LA 1. Project Positioning and Technical Highlights
1. Core Functions
- ZK Co-Processor provides off-chain computing capabilities for blockchains (such as Ethereum, Rollups), verifying results through ZK proofs to reduce on-chain computing costs.
- Application Scenarios
- Off-chain execution of complex DeFi strategies (such as lending liquidation, derivatives pricing)
- Lightweight proofs for cross-chain interoperability
- Off-chain processing of game logic or AI computations

2. Technical Advantages
- Parallel proof generation: Utilizing GPU acceleration to enhance ZK proof efficiency (comparable to RISC Zero, zkVM).
- Restaking integration: Attracting Ethereum validators to participate in network security through EigenLayer, enhancing decentralization.

Bitcoin ($BTC ) has shown strong price performance recently, breaking the $112,000 barrier for the first time in the early hours of July 10, setting a new historical high. Below is a detailed analysis:

• Price Trend: After first breaking $110,000 on May 22, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase, during which it multiple times dipped to around $98,000. Since July, its price has been gradually rising along the trend middle track, with momentum indicators gradually recovering. From a technical perspective, March to May of this year was a phase of oscillation and bottoming out to a breakout platform, mid-May to early June was a rapid rise period, and mid-June to early July was characterized by high-level consolidation to a new high.

• Reasons for the Rise: First, continuous buying from institutions and a recovery in market risk appetite have endowed Bitcoin with dual attributes akin to gold or tech growth stocks, with listed companies and asset management institutions becoming major buyers. Second, the rise in the U.S. tech sector has transmitted sentiment and liquidity, with stocks like Nvidia breaking through, leading investors to view digital assets as benefiting from the trend of value digitization; the asset linkage effect between Bitcoin and tech stocks has amplified its price elasticity. Third, the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy has entered an expected easing phase, with the market anticipating increased liquidity, while the GENIUS Act promoted by the U.S. is bringing a clearer regulatory framework to the cryptocurrency market, enhancing market confidence.

• Market Outlook: Future trends depend on key variables. If U.S. policies favor digital assets and institutional funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin's price may form a new rising rhythm. However, if spot trading volumes cannot be maintained, or if there is large-scale forced liquidation in the futures market leading to liquidity tightening, there may be short-term corrections or even larger price declines. Overall, as market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to ferment, along with ongoing accumulation by institutions and long-term holders, Bitcoin remains in a bullish pattern in the short term, but long-term risks such as policy changes and market bubbles need to be monitored.

• Risk Warning: The Bitcoin market carries significant risks. On one hand, its decentralization and anonymity characteristics may lead to money laundering, illegal fundraising, and other criminal activities, prompting regulatory agencies in various countries to strengthen oversight. Once stricter policies are implemented, they will significantly impact Bitcoin's price and market liquidity. On the other hand, Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, with bubble risks.

#我的策略演变 records the evolution of trading strategies, allowing for a review of growth and helping to avoid repeated pitfalls. Below are common stages of strategy evolution and possible turning points for reference:

Initial Stage: "Utilitarianism" Stage

• Characteristics: Reliance on others' strategies (such as online 'master trading methods' or 'indicator combinations'), lack of independent judgment, mechanical execution.

• Common Issues: Lack of understanding of strategy logic, inability to adjust when encountering market changes (such as trend reversals or sudden increases in volatility), easily dismissing a strategy due to a single failure.

• Trigger Point for Evolution: Realization after consecutive losses that "others' strategies ≠ suitable for oneself," beginning to question "why is this strategy effective? What market environment is it suitable for?"

Mid Stage: "Trial and Error Optimization" Stage

• Characteristics: Decomposing strategies based on initial experiences, retaining core logic (such as trend following and mean reversion), trying to replace indicators and adjust parameters (such as stop-loss ratios and holding periods).

• Key Actions:

◦ Distinguish between the strategy's "necessary conditions" (such as core signals for trend establishment) and "optional conditions" (such as secondary indicators for auxiliary filtering).

◦ Incorporate personalized elements, such as adjusting positions based on individual risk preferences (conservatives reduce leverage, aggressives set stricter stop-losses).

• Common Misconception: Over-optimizing parameters (such as fine-tuning to fit historical data to form a 'perfect curve'), resulting in poor adaptability in live trading.

Mature Stage: "System Adaptation" Stage

• Characteristics: Formation of a complete trading system that includes four major modules: entry, exit, risk control, and capital management, with a clear definition of "what not to do" (such as defining market types where the strategy fails and actively avoiding them).

• Core Shift:

◦ Shifting from "pursuing win rates" to "pursuing profit-loss ratios," accepting the norm of "small losses, large gains."

◦ Matching strategies with personal conditions, for example, short-term strategies require high-frequency monitoring, if time is limited, shifting to swing strategies.

• Sign: When facing losses, being able to quickly pinpoint whether it is "normal fluctuations of the strategy" or "system vulnerabilities," rather than emotionally dismissing it.

Advanced Stage: "Dynamic Balance" Stage

• Characteristics: No longer limited to a single strategy, but rather adapting according to market cycles.

#交易策略误区 in trading, many strategic misconceptions may lead to losses or suboptimal outcomes. Here are some common core misconceptions:

Overly Pursuing the 'Perfect Strategy'

• Believing that there is a 'winning' strategy that can precisely predict the market, ignoring market uncertainties.

• Frequently changing strategies, abandoning each one after just a few losses, lacking the patience for long-term verification and optimization.

Ignoring Risk Control

• Trading with high leverage, trying to 'get rich quickly' with a single high-position trade; a misjudgment can lead to significant losses.

• Not setting stop-loss orders or arbitrarily changing stop-loss levels, harboring a wishful thinking that 'holding on will allow recovery,' ultimately leading to small losses becoming large losses.

Over-Reliance on Technical Indicators

• Piling on multiple technical indicators, becoming confused when signals conflict, and losing the ability to judge the essence of the market.

• Mechanically applying indicator signals while ignoring changes in market conditions (such as trends, trading volume, news), for example, using trend indicators in a ranging market, or using range indicators in a trending market.

Emotional Trading Dominates

• Being greedy when profitable, unwilling to take profits, leading to profit loss or even turning profits into losses; panicking during losses, irrationally closing positions and missing rebound opportunities.

• Revenge trading, hurriedly trying to 'recoup' after a loss, violating the original strategy and opening positions indiscriminately, falling into a vicious cycle.

Lack of Strategy Adaptability

• Not considering one's own risk tolerance, blindly adopting high-risk strategies (such as strategies with excessively high leverage).

• Ignoring market characteristics, such as directly applying strategies suitable for stocks to markets like forex or cryptocurrencies that have different volatility.

Disconnection Between Backtesting and Live Trading

• Over-optimizing backtest data, adding too many 'fitting' conditions to make the strategy perform perfectly in historical data, leading to failure in live trading (i.e., the 'curve fitting trap').

• Ignoring trading costs (such as commissions, slippage, etc.) during backtesting, resulting in a significant gap between theoretical and actual returns.

The core of these misconceptions often lies in insufficient understanding of market rules, weak risk awareness, or unbalanced mindset management. The effectiveness of trading strategies needs to be ensured through rational analysis, risk control, and continuous review.

#美国加密周 “U.S. Crypto Week” is an event promoted by the U.S. House of Representatives focusing on issues related to cryptocurrency. Here is a detailed introduction:

Basic Information

• Date: July 14-18, 2025.

• Organizer: U.S. House of Representatives, initiated by Republican leaders.

Purpose and Significance

• Promote Regulation and Innovation: Establish a transparent legal framework for digital assets, clarify regulatory responsibilities, explore new applications of blockchain, and balance innovation with user rights protection.

• Consolidate Industry Position: Respond to Trump’s policy goals for the development of digital assets, unleash the potential of crypto innovation, and solidify the U.S. leading position in the crypto field.

• Raise Public Awareness: Enhance public understanding of digital assets through various activities, increase digital literacy, and prevent related fraud.

Main Activities

• Congressional Hearings: Committees from both the House and Senate will hold hearings to question regulatory agencies and industry experts on issues of digital asset regulation and enforcement.

• Industry Events and Panel Discussions: Crypto companies, blockchain startups, and think tanks will organize panel discussions and seminars to showcase innovations in decentralized finance, non-fungible tokens, and other areas.

• Promotion and Educational Activities: Public-facing activities such as live streaming, community town hall meetings, and virtual exhibitions will be conducted to disseminate knowledge about digital assets.

Legislation Review

• The CLARITY Act: Aims to clarify the classification standards for the securities and commodity attributes of tokens, delineate the regulatory responsibilities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and provide legal certainty for developers and trading platforms.

• The GENIUS Act: Passed in the Senate, aims to establish a federal framework for USD-pegged stablecoins, requiring issuers to register and stipulating that they must hold liquid assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves, as well as establishing anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing provisions.

• The Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act: Prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail digital dollars to protect the financial privacy of U.S. citizens and prevent excessive government oversight of personal financial data.

Arbitrage trading strategies capitalize on unreasonable price differences of assets in the market (price differences of the same asset across different markets, times, or forms) by buying low and selling high, earning risk-free or low-risk returns, suitable for conservative investors who prefer stable returns. Below are common arbitrage methods and key points in the cryptocurrency market:

Common Arbitrage Types

• Cross-platform arbitrage:
There are price differences for the same cryptocurrency on different exchanges (for example, BTC quoted at $100,000 on Exchange A and $102,000 on Exchange B). Buy on the lower-priced platform and sell on the higher-priced platform to profit from the price difference.

◦ Key: Consider transaction fees, withdrawal processing time (to avoid the price difference disappearing), and platform liquidity (whether trades can be executed quickly).

◦ Suitable for: Major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, etc.), as smaller cryptocurrencies have poor liquidity, unstable price differences, and may have withdrawal limits.

The #趋势交易策略 arbitrage trading strategy exploits unreasonable price differences in asset prices within the market (price differences of the same asset across different markets, times, or forms) by buying low and selling high, earning risk-free or low-risk returns. It is suitable for conservative investors who prefer stability in returns. Below are common arbitrage methods and key points in the cryptocurrency market:

Common Arbitrage Types

• Cross-platform Arbitrage:
There are price differences for the same cryptocurrency on different exchanges (e.g., BTC priced at $100,000 on Exchange A and $102,000 on Exchange B). Buy on the lower-priced platform and sell on the higher-priced platform to profit from the price difference.

◦ Key: Consider transaction fees, withdrawal time (to avoid the disappearance of the price difference), and platform liquidity (whether transactions can be completed quickly).

◦ Suitable for: Major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, etc.), as smaller cryptocurrencies have poor liquidity, unstable price differences, and may have withdrawal restrictions.

The arbitrage trading strategy of #套利交易策略 exploits the irrational price differences of assets in the market (price differences of the same asset across different markets, times, or forms) by buying low and selling high to earn risk-free or low-risk returns, suitable for conservative investors seeking stable income. Below are common arbitrage methods and key points in the cryptocurrency market:

Common Arbitrage Types

• Cross-platform Arbitrage:
Price differences exist for the same cryptocurrency on different exchanges (e.g., BTC priced at $100,000 on exchange A and $102,000 on exchange B). Buy on the lower-priced platform and sell on the higher-priced platform to capture the price difference.

◦ Key: Consider transaction fees, withdrawal processing times (to avoid the price difference disappearing), and platform liquidity (the ability to execute trades quickly).

◦ Suitable for: Major cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, etc.) as small cryptocurrencies have poor liquidity, unstable price differences, and may have withdrawal restrictions.

$BTC Bitcoin (BTC) has performed strongly recently, reaching new highs in price. The following is an analysis from aspects such as market trends, technical indicators, and market driving factors:

• Market Trends: On July 10, Bitcoin briefly broke through the historical high of $112,000 during intraday trading but failed to hold and retreated to around $111,000 at the close, showing a 'high and then low' pattern, indicating short-term selling pressure near the new high, and the short-term trend has turned into weak fluctuations.

• Technical Indicators: From the 4-hour chart, the MACD death cross has just emerged, but the histogram volume is decreasing, and the downward momentum is slowing. The daily RSI is at 62, showing no signs of overbought, and there is still upward momentum in the short term.

• Market Driving Factors: On one hand, policy support has provided momentum for the rise in Bitcoin prices. In March of this year, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to establish a 'National Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve,' and the Trump Media & Technology Group plans to launch a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund, intending to invest in Bitcoin and other assets. On the other hand, the widespread participation of institutional investors is an important driving force behind this round of increases. Since the U.S. approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, related products have attracted over $50 billion in inflows, and in the first two weeks of July 2025, net inflows into ETFs exceeded $1.2 billion. In addition, the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes released dovish signals, enhancing market risk appetite, and the recent continued weakness of the dollar index has also benefited Bitcoin priced in dollars.

• Support and Resistance Levels: In terms of support levels, the key support is at $107,200 (20-day moving average), followed by the psychological level of $110,000 and $109,400 (previous high resistance level). The resistance levels are $112,000 (historical high) and $114,000 (upper boundary of the rising channel).

• Market Risks: Bitcoin's price is highly volatile and has a strong correlation with stock market performance. Changes in the macroeconomic environment or weakening policy support may put pressure on its price. At the same time, some investors may cash out at high levels, leading to intensified short-term price fluctuations.

The above content is organized based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.

The breakthrough trading strategy of #突破交易策略 utilizes the momentum when the price breaks through key ranges (support/resistance levels, trend lines, pattern boundaries, etc.) to capture trend initiation opportunities, widely applied in the cryptocurrency market. Here are the core points:

Core Logic

When the price oscillates within a certain range for a long time, the forces of both bulls and bears tend to be balanced; once the price breaks through the range (upward through resistance or downward through support), it usually means one side's strength has prevailed, potentially triggering a new trend. At this point, entering can follow the initial momentum to profit.

Key Elements

• Identifying Breakthrough Ranges:

◦ Resistance/Support Levels: Previous highs (resistance), lows (support), or price areas that have been tested multiple times without breaking.

◦ Pattern Boundaries: Such as the upper and lower boundaries of technical patterns like triangles, rectangles, head and shoulders top/bottom, etc.

◦ Trend Lines: Trend channels formed by connecting multiple highs or lows; breaking above the upper boundary indicates an upward breakout, while breaking below the lower boundary indicates a downward breakout.

• Confirming Breakthrough Validity:

◦ Volume Expansion: A significant increase in trading volume accompanying the breakout (usually more than 1.5 times the recent average volume) indicates high capital participation and a low probability of false breakouts.

◦ Closing Price Stabilization: After the price breaks, the closing price can stabilize above (for upward breakouts) or below (for downward breakouts) the breakout level, avoiding short-lived “spike” breakouts.

Entry and Exit Rules

• Entry Timing:

◦ Entering at the Moment of Breakout: Directly entering when the price breaks the key level and the volume expands (long/short position).

◦ Entering After Pullback Confirmation: After the breakout, if the price slightly pulls back to the breakout level (e.g., resistance turns into support), entering after confirming the support is effective is more prudent but may miss part of the trend.

• Take Profit and Stop Loss:

◦ Stop Loss: Set on the opposite side of the breakout range (e.g., for upward breakouts, stop loss below the lower boundary of the range; for downward breakouts, stop loss above the upper boundary of the range), typically not exceeding 1-2 times the breakout range.

◦ Take Profit: Can refer to the previous trend amplitude, key integer levels, or use trailing stop loss (e.g., following the price increase, gradually moving the stop loss up) to lock in profits.

Precautions

• Beware of False Breakouts: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, often experiencing “false breakouts” that lure traders into positions; confirmation through volume and closing price must be strict.

#日内交易策略 日内交易策略聚焦于当天完成买卖，通过捕捉短期价格波动获利，适合时间充裕、能实时盯盘且风险承受能力较强的投资者。以下是核心要点：

核心逻辑

• 赚短差：利用日内价格的上下波动（哪怕是1%-5%的幅度），通过多次低买高卖或高卖低买（合约可做空）积累收益。

• 不隔夜：当天平仓，避免持仓过夜面临突发消息（如政策变动、大额资金异动）导致的隔夜风险。

常用策略

• 区间突破：识别日内价格的震荡区间（支撑位和阻力位），当价格突破区间上限时做多，跌破下限时空单入场，配合成交量放大信号更可靠。

• 均线交叉：用短期均线（如5分钟线）与中期均线（如20分钟线）的交叉判断短期趋势，金叉（短期上穿中期）做多，死叉（短期下穿中期）做空，适合波动较规律的时段。

• 盘口异动捕捉：关注实时成交量突然放大、大单成交密集的情况，可能预示短期趋势启动，快速跟进并设置严格止损。

关键纪律

• 止损必设：日内波动快，单次止损幅度建议控制在1%-3%，避免单笔亏损过大吞噬利润。

• 控制频率：不追求“每波都做”，只参与符合自己策略的信号，频繁交易易因情绪出错。

• 轻仓操作：单比仓位建议不超过总资金的5%-10%，预留资金应对突发波动。

日内交易对技术分析能力和执行力要求高，新手需先通过模拟盘练习，熟悉后再小资金实战，避免因贪心或犹豫导致失误。

#长期持有策略 Long-term holding (HODL) is a classic and low-threshold strategy in cryptocurrency investment. The core logic is to have confidence in the long-term value of the asset, ignore short-term fluctuations, and gain returns over time. Here are the key points of this strategy:

Core Principles

• Asset Selection: Prioritize mainstream cryptocurrencies with strong consensus and stable ecosystems (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), as they have a stronger long-term risk resistance. Smaller coins carry the risk of going to zero and are not suitable for long-term holding.

• Entry Timing: There is no need to pursue the "absolute low point"; instead, buy in batches when market sentiment is low and prices are within a relatively historical low range, to avoid taking on excessive risk by going all-in at once.

• Mindset Management: Enduring short-term fluctuations is key, as cryptocurrency prices may experience a 30%-50% correction. One must maintain confidence in the long-term logic of the asset and avoid frequent trading influenced by short-term market conditions.

Applicable Scenarios

• Investors who do not have time to monitor the market and lack professional analytical skills.

• Individuals who recognize the long-term development trend of cryptocurrencies (such as the application of blockchain technology, institutional adoption, etc.) and are willing to hold for more than 3 years.

Considerations

• Invest with "spare money": Only invest funds that one can afford to lose entirely, to avoid being forced to sell at a loss due to short-term cash needs.

• Regular Review: There is no need for frequent trading, but one should periodically (e.g., quarterly) assess whether the fundamentals of the asset have changed (such as stagnation in technological iteration or major shifts in regulatory policies). If the core logic breaks down, timely adjustments are necessary.

Long-term holding may seem simple, but it tests the depth of understanding of the asset and the stability of one's mindset, making it suitable for users who pursue a "laid-back" investment style.

#现货与合约策略 Spot and contract trading are two common methods in cryptocurrency trading, with significant strategic differences. Here are the core strategy points:

Spot Strategy

• Long-term holding (HODL): Suitable for investors who are optimistic about the long-term value of cryptocurrencies, ignoring short-term price fluctuations, and enjoying asset appreciation over time, especially suitable for mainstream currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

• Dollar-cost averaging: Regularly buying a fixed amount, diversifying market volatility risks, reducing timing difficulties, suitable for medium-sized investors who do not have time to monitor the market.

• Buy low and sell high: Buying when the price retraces to key support levels, selling when it rises to resistance levels or reaches target returns, requiring technical analysis to determine entry and exit points.

Contract Strategy

• Trend following: Using indicators like moving averages and MACD to determine market trends (upward/downward), opening long or short positions in the direction of the trend, setting profit-taking and stop-loss orders to control risks, suitable for clearly trending markets.

• Hedging risk: Holding spot positions while opening opposite positions in the contract market to offset losses caused by spot price fluctuations, for example, if holding spot positions is risky, one can open a short position to hedge.

• Short-term volatility arbitrage: Utilizing short-term price fluctuations for high-frequency trading to earn the price difference, requiring quick reactions and strict stop-loss discipline, suitable for investors with high risk tolerance.

It is important to note that contracts come with leverage, magnifying both returns and risks. Beginners are advised to start with spot trading and cautiously attempt contracts after becoming familiar with the market.

Recently, Bitcoin (#BTC再创新高 ) has indeed set multiple historical highs. On July 11, Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin once broke through 117,000 USD, rising over 5% within the day. As of 7:42 on that day, the price of Bitcoin reached 115,671.71 USD, increasing over 3%.

Previously, in the early hours of July 10, the price of Bitcoin also once rose to 112,000 USD, setting a new historical high. Since the beginning of this year, the price of Bitcoin has generally maintained an upward trend, with a cumulative increase of over 20%. The rise in its price is mainly influenced by factors such as institutional capital inflow, an increase in market risk appetite, short covering, and improved regulatory expectations.

$BNB BNB is the platform token of Binance Exchange and the native token of Binance Smart Chain (BSC). Here is an analysis of BNB:

• Technical Aspect: Binance Smart Chain BSC adopts the Proof of Staked Authority (PoSA) consensus mechanism, which combines PoS and PoA. It has a fast transaction speed, capable of processing about 1600-3000 transactions per second, with a block time of about 5 seconds. Transaction fees usually range from $0.1 to $0.2. Additionally, BSC is compatible with Ethereum and supports the Solidity language, allowing developers to easily migrate applications from Ethereum to BSC, lowering the development threshold.

• Economic Model Aspect: The total supply of BNB is 200 million, and Binance periodically burns a portion of BNB, aiming to gradually reduce the total supply to 100 million to enhance its scarcity. BNB can be used to pay for transaction fees on BSC, smart contract execution fees, etc., and also plays a role in Binance's Launchpool and other services. Holders can earn rewards by participating in related activities, which increases the demand and utility of BNB.

• Application Scenario Aspect: BSC has a rich DeFi ecosystem and supports various DeFi protocols, such as decentralized exchanges and lending platforms. At the same time, BNB, as the core token of the Binance ecosystem, can be used for transaction fee discounts on Binance Exchange, futures contract margins, and can also participate in Binance's IEO and other activities, making its application scenarios wide-ranging.

• Market Aspect: From a technical indicator perspective, according to Investing.com data on May 27, 2025, various indicators for BNB, such as RSI and MACD, show buy signals, and moving averages also provide strong buy signals. BNB has a high market capitalization, having exceeded $50 billion in market cap in January 2025, making it one of the most influential tokens in the cryptocurrency market. Its price is significantly influenced by the development of Binance Exchange's business and the overall market conditions of the cryptocurrency market. With the expansion of Binance's business and improving market conditions, BNB's price is expected to be supported.

The cryptocurrency market carries high risks and uncertainties, and the above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.