Hello Victor

The future of the #香港稳定币条例 stablecoin depends on the symbiosis of 'compliance' and 'availability'. Hong Kong's attempts prove that strict regulation does not necessarily stifle innovation, but we must avoid building monopoly walls in the name of stability! 🤡

The strict licensing mechanism of Hong Kong's 'Stablecoin Regulation' forces the elimination of financially weak or inadequately risk-controlled institutions through high thresholds, significantly reducing the number of market participants to single digits in the short term, but significantly lowering the risks of decoupling and bank runs, thereby building a solid trust foundation for the industry.

At the same time, the regulation grants the Monetary Authority 'intervention rights of statutory managers' and other bank-level risk control tools, and imposes severe penalties for unlicensed issuance, effectively isolating speculative risks from spreading to the traditional financial system, enhancing investors' confidence in stablecoins as payment tools rather than speculative assets.

In the long run, this 'better to have less than to have more' strategy has attracted compliance institutions like Standard Chartered and Ant Group to lay out cross-border payment scenarios in the real economy, pushing stablecoins back to their original positioning of 'enhancing payment efficiency', paving the way for sustainable industry development.

However, high compliance costs and technical thresholds will push small and medium-sized startups out of the market and directly exclude decentralized innovation models like algorithmic stablecoins, leading to an initial market concentration among traditional banking giants, weakening technological diversity and competitive vitality.

Moreover, the unexpected contraction of only 3-5 licenses in the first batch, although based on risk concentration calculations, significantly compresses user choice space in the short term, which may delay the penetration speed of stablecoins in emerging scenarios such as retail payments and the metaverse.

To balance regulation and innovation, Hong Kong has set up a transition period and sandbox mechanism, allowing existing issuers to continue operating for 6 months after submitting their applications and providing space for 12 institutions including JD.com and Standard Chartered to test payment and RWA integration scenarios, reducing compliance costs through controllable trial and error.

By supporting the parallel development of Hong Kong dollar and offshore renminbi stablecoins through a 'multi-currency anchoring' strategy, it avoids reliance on a single US dollar and opens up on-chain channels for renminbi cross-border payments. For example, the Yiwu market has already tested stablecoin applications for trade settlements worth billions of dollars.

The tiered exemption rules allow unlicensed institutions to offer non-Hong Kong dollar stablecoins to professional investors, preserving flexible innovation space, while the Monetary Authority dynamically optimizes technical audit standards and other details, striving to cultivate 'regulatory-enabled innovation' above the baseline of stability.

#美国加征关税
Trump's new tariff regulations launched in July 2025 (imposing a 10% tariff on 'BRICS-friendly' countries, threatening to revert to April's high tariffs on August 1) is essentially a continuation of the global tariff war that escalated in April. Its impact has far exceeded the scope of trade wars and is strongly reshaping the global landscape. 🤡

The United States is using tariffs as a weapon to exert pressure, but the BRICS nations are accelerating 'de-dollarization' in response through the 'Rio Declaration', with countries like Vietnam joining to further expand the anti-American alliance. Although the US and Europe appear united on the surface, internal contradictions (such as the survival instinct of German car companies vs. Eastern European energy dependence) and Southeast Asia's 'non-alignment' stance (Thailand delaying, Malaysia and Cambodia collaborating with China) are tearing apart the Western camp.

The impact on the market is immediate, with metals being the first to suffer — the cost of copper exports from South America to China has surged by $200/ton, triggering price volatility, while Russian aluminum sales to China are exacerbating supply imbalances, and the cobalt crisis in Congo is forcing Tesla to seek material alternatives. Global consumers are under pressure: American households face an annual increase of $3,800 in tariff costs, and German automakers plan to lay off 120,000 workers, with inflation and recessionary shadows looming.

As for companies, they are finding multiple ways to break through: indirect production (such as Indonesian factories in Mexico to avoid taxes), vertical integration (China Aluminum controlling mines to reduce costs), and financial hedging (Russia and China settling in rubles). Regional cooperation is deepening: trading volume of BRICS metal futures is surging, and the electronics industry is forming a new chain of 'China R&D + ASEAN manufacturing'.

In the short term, there may be a stalemate, with exemptions for allies but continued countermeasures from BRICS, leading to fluctuations in bulk commodities; the risk of escalation could trigger comprehensive tax increases and supply disruptions of rare earths and palladium in August, impacting tech stocks and the bond market; a turning point may depend on a G20 ceasefire agreement, conditional on expanding local currency settlements.

The US tariff strategy is backfiring, accelerating three irreversible changes: supply chains fracturing into closed loops in North America, BRICS, and the EU; oil and the renminbi eroding the dollar's pricing power; and Vietnam's 'alignment' symbolizing a collective awakening of developing countries. In the long run, this is the ultimate contention for the power to set rules in a multipolar world.

Future core observation points: US actions on August 1, progress on BRICS digital currency, and the game of carbon tariffs between Europe and America.

#马斯克计划成立美国党 The surface is a table flip because Trump signed the "Great and Beautiful Act" to cancel electric vehicle subsidies, but in essence, it is a "power game" between the new tech elites and traditional politics. 🤡

First, Old Ma holds three aces: the public opinion nuclear bomb of the X platform, with the Pinocchio "liar" poster spreading 50 million times in 24 hours; the capital firepower of a hundred billion dollar fortune; and the AI campaign machine that precisely targets swing district voters. He uses internet thinking to subvert politics, turning party building into a "user voting" internet celebrity experiment, which is essentially Silicon Valley's "technological power grab" over Washington.

At the same time, the conflict over the act also exposes the dollar debt crisis, with an increase in debt of 3.3 trillion over ten years. Old Ma seizes the opportunity to promote cryptocurrency "to the forefront." In the short term, Bitcoin serves as an "anti-inflation shield," with nearly 20,000 Bitcoins held as safe-haven assets by Tesla and SpaceX; in the long term, he shares Trump's ambition of "cryptocurrency replacing the dollar," but the risk lies in: if the two parties join forces to suppress stablecoins (such as the act mandating anchoring to U.S. bonds), decentralized finance (DeFi) could face strangulation.

Meanwhile, the American party also faces a triple strangulation, exposing the system's "impossible triangle."
First is the legal shackles: 200,000 signatures needed to register a party in 50 states, which takes years, as the Green Party collapsed entirely due to failure in one state;
Second is voter inertia: 69% of independents "remain silent but dare not vote for a third party," fearing wasted votes;
Third is life threats: Musk has feuds from government layoffs, receiving death threats daily, and Tesla facilities have been attacked with incendiary devices.
Of course, his true goal may be to force the two parties to reform the electoral system, creating a political umbrella for his business empire, rather than genuinely wanting to govern.

This grand drama is "tech tycoons buying political tickets with money and traffic, yet stumbling into a life-and-death situation." Cryptocurrency becomes a safe-haven tool, but leveraged players are prone to liquidation; if Musk survives the threats (the FBI has intervened for protection) and secures 5 seats in 2026, the U.S. may give birth to the first "AI party," promoting Bitcoin as a hedging asset against national debt; if he fails, it serves as a warning to future players: in the power game, even the richest must prioritize survival.

This gamble has nothing to do with ideology; it is the old system's iron wall colliding with Silicon Valley's Iron Man's titanium alloy head, while our wallets... are just their chips.

The "#大而美法案 Big and Beautiful Act" (OBBB) is not an isolated event, but rather part of a carefully designed "Washington Conspiracy" along with the "GENIUS Act", "CLARITY Act", and CBDC ban, which systematically reconstructs the global power structure of crypto assets through a dual-track strategy of "fiscal expansion + regulatory reshaping".

OBBB is a declaration of "fiscal dominance", transforming Bitcoin from a cyclical speculative target into an essential asset against inflation, with the upgrade of corporate treasury strategies marking the formal emergence of "digital goods" as a new asset class.

Regulation is not meant to stifle, but rather to construct a "legal fence" under American standards, incorporating the crypto ecosystem into the dollar system and achieving "digital colonization". The market responds to the policy conspiracy with "calm greed"—institutions are trading time for space, waiting for the full release of regulatory dividends.

The United States is replacing "technical hegemony" with "free regulation", accelerating the global gathering of crypto capital and innovation towards America, reshaping the "center-periphery" structure. The outcome of this gamble is still uncertain, but the game is clear: the winner may be American hegemony or the original spirit of crypto, and the two cannot coexist.