#美国加征关税

Trump's new tariff regulations launched in July 2025 (imposing a 10% tariff on 'BRICS-friendly' countries, threatening to revert to April's high tariffs on August 1) is essentially a continuation of the global tariff war that escalated in April. Its impact has far exceeded the scope of trade wars and is strongly reshaping the global landscape. 🤡

The United States is using tariffs as a weapon to exert pressure, but the BRICS nations are accelerating 'de-dollarization' in response through the 'Rio Declaration', with countries like Vietnam joining to further expand the anti-American alliance. Although the US and Europe appear united on the surface, internal contradictions (such as the survival instinct of German car companies vs. Eastern European energy dependence) and Southeast Asia's 'non-alignment' stance (Thailand delaying, Malaysia and Cambodia collaborating with China) are tearing apart the Western camp.

The impact on the market is immediate, with metals being the first to suffer — the cost of copper exports from South America to China has surged by $200/ton, triggering price volatility, while Russian aluminum sales to China are exacerbating supply imbalances, and the cobalt crisis in Congo is forcing Tesla to seek material alternatives. Global consumers are under pressure: American households face an annual increase of $3,800 in tariff costs, and German automakers plan to lay off 120,000 workers, with inflation and recessionary shadows looming.

As for companies, they are finding multiple ways to break through: indirect production (such as Indonesian factories in Mexico to avoid taxes), vertical integration (China Aluminum controlling mines to reduce costs), and financial hedging (Russia and China settling in rubles). Regional cooperation is deepening: trading volume of BRICS metal futures is surging, and the electronics industry is forming a new chain of 'China R&D + ASEAN manufacturing'.

In the short term, there may be a stalemate, with exemptions for allies but continued countermeasures from BRICS, leading to fluctuations in bulk commodities; the risk of escalation could trigger comprehensive tax increases and supply disruptions of rare earths and palladium in August, impacting tech stocks and the bond market; a turning point may depend on a G20 ceasefire agreement, conditional on expanding local currency settlements.

The US tariff strategy is backfiring, accelerating three irreversible changes: supply chains fracturing into closed loops in North America, BRICS, and the EU; oil and the renminbi eroding the dollar's pricing power; and Vietnam's 'alignment' symbolizing a collective awakening of developing countries. In the long run, this is the ultimate contention for the power to set rules in a multipolar world.

Future core observation points: US actions on August 1, progress on BRICS digital currency, and the game of carbon tariffs between Europe and America.