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Analyzing SOL's strength from three perspectives: faith, asset expansion, and chip structure, and discussing the future trend of SOL.
1. Faith is built through decline, consensus is built through rise Analysis: SOL dropped from $259.9 to $8 (a 97% drop), similar to the historical reshuffling of ETH (which dropped 94% in 2018) and BTC, eliminating speculators and stabilizing holders. The profit effect during the rise attracts external buying, amplifying the fundamentals and forming a consensus.
Supplement: SOL's 'faith' comes from surviving the bear market (resolving outages, FTX crisis) and the bull market cycle (BTC ETF inflows).
2. Creating assets is key, MEME leader BONK and DePIN narrative Analysis: BONK locks in liquidity through airdrops and hype, attracting users, while DePIN expands the SOL ecosystem, positioning itself as a 'productivity public chain'. Public chains win through the profit effect and new narratives, rather than technological superiority.
Supplement: BONK boosted on-chain active addresses (from 200,000 to over 1 million), DePIN utilizes SOL's high throughput to attract Web2 users.
3. Concentrated chips and reduced selling pressure from lock-up Analysis: FTX holds 55.8 million SOL (13%) locked due to bankruptcy, similar to ETH 2.0 lock-up, reducing circulating chips. A staking rate of 70% and DeFi lock-up further support the price. Concentrated chips are beneficial for rising, while dispersed chips require more gaming.
Supplement: FTX unlocking may bring pressure, similar to ETH Shanghai upgrade corrections. Institutional funds enhance chip stability.
When is SOL expected to rise? Short-term (2025 Q2-Q3): Bull market continues, target $300-$350. Drivers: DePIN, BONK hype, institutional inflows.
Risks: Overheating, macro volatility.
Mid-term (2025 Q4-2026 Q1): FTX unlocking may trigger adjustments (10%-20%), target $400-$500. Drivers: New narratives (AI, GameFi).
Risks: Layer 1 competition.
Long-term (after 2026): If DePIN is realized and the ecosystem leads, it can break through $1,000; if ETH optimizes Gas or new chains rise, growth may be limited.
Summary and Recommendations
SOL's strength comes from the reshaping of faith, asset expansion, and chip lock-up.
Recommendations: Hold in the short term, focus on $300-$350. Be cautious of FTX unlocking in the mid-term, add positions on dips. Track DePIN and competitive dynamics in the long term. Monitor on-chain data (active addresses, staking rate) and FTX progress.
$DOGE also the lowest point to buy in, floating profit 40%📈 Last year, Bitcoin was publicly laid out at 58,000 for 10 spot trades, all published publicly, all doubled 📈📈 The largest heavy-weight currency XRP directly bought into this bull market's biggest dark horse, doubled 7 times 💰💰 The second round of spot layout has now also started to publicly show floating profits I just ask you if you are convinced⁉️ Who else‼️ That year, with hands in pockets, didn't know who the opponent was 🤷♂️ Paid or free, none can compete No opponents 🤷♂️ are you convinced $XRP
$DOGE also the lowest point to buy in, floating profit 40%📈 Last year, Bitcoin was publicly laid out at 58,000 for 10 spot trades, all published publicly, all doubled 📈📈 The largest heavy-weight currency XRP directly bought into this bull market's biggest dark horse, doubled 7 times 💰💰 The second round of spot layout has now also started to publicly show floating profits I just ask you if you are convinced⁉️ Who else‼️ That year, with hands in pockets, didn't know who the opponent was 🤷♂️ Paid or free, none can compete No opponents 🤷♂️ are you convinced $XRP
#ArizonaBTCReserve Bitcoin Technical Analysis The Bitcoin market initially pulled back just a touch during the early hours on Tuesday, but it does continue to see a lot of sideways action. And I think at this point in time, we are just trying to digest a lot of the gains. If we pull back from here, and that would not be a huge surprise, I suspect that the $90,000 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. The 50-day EMA is racing towards that area as well, so I’d be watching that as yet another reason to think that area around $90,000 should be somewhat interesting. If we break to the upside, the $100,000 level is the next major target, followed by $110,010. So, with that, it looks a lot like a range of noise that might be difficult to get above.
But if and when we do, then it’s very possible that Bitcoin could rally all the way back to the recent all-time highs, which is $110,000. The market has been very strong until the last couple of days, but when you look at the last couple of weeks, it’s been a significant V bottom. And I think at this point, it’s become more or less a buy on the dip type of market as it looks like Bitcoin is ready to continue its march higher. At this point, I have no real interest in trying to short this market as it has been so strong over the last few weeks.
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