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This chart helps to identify the favorable time to buy or sell altcoins with a medium-term outlook.

It compares the average trading volume of the altcoin pair with stablecoin over the past 30 days to the annual average.

Currently, we have entered the buying zone as the 30-day moving average is lower than the annual average.

The last time this level was reached was in September 2023, right after the bear market ended.

These periods can last for several weeks or even months, but history shows that this is an attractive opportunity to establish a DCA strategy.

Bitcoin's price has dropped from $109K to around $80K, but the hashrate and mining difficulty are still at an all-time high.

The increase in difficulty may raise mining costs, but this reflects Bitcoin's strong fundamentals in terms of mining power and cybersecurity.

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the potential market capitalization of Bitcoin based on hashrate could reach $5 trillion.

With a current market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, the growth potential remains substantial.

- Bitcoin reserves on Binance increased from 568,768 BTC (March 28) to 590,874 BTC (April 9), an increase of 22,106 BTC.

- BTC inflows into Binance are increasing sharply, possibly due to investors moving money here ahead of the upcoming CPI announcement.

- Macroeconomic instability may be driving this trend.

- This is a sign of strong investor interest in Bitcoin on Binance.

The trading volume of Bitcoin and altcoins has decreased as cryptocurrency prices have adjusted over the past two months. The trading volume of Bitcoin dropped from $44 billion on February 3 to $10 billion at the end of Q1.

The trading volume of altcoins also fell from $122 billion on February 3 to $23 billion at the end of Q1.

Binance has strengthened its dominance, accounting for nearly 50% of the total trading volume. Binance's daily Bitcoin trading ratio increased from 33% to 49% at the end of Q1. This indicates that other exchanges are declining faster than Binance, making Binance the largest liquidity provider during significant market fluctuations.

Binance also accounted for 64% of the altcoin trading volume as the price of Bitcoin fell from $96K to $90K at the end of February. Some altcoins like BNB, TON, and EOS still maintained high trading volumes on Binance despite the overall market decline.

The current price of Bitcoin is approaching the 2-Year Realized Price, reflecting the average cost of UTXOs that have moved in the past 2 years. This is an important psychological support and structural threshold, often reflecting the cost of market participants in previous growth phases.

It is noteworthy that BTC has maintained above the 2-Year Realized Price since October 2023, indicating sustained confidence from investors and the potential for establishing a long-term value base.

If the price continues to hold steady or rebounds from this level, it may signal that capital flow is consolidating, strengthening the growth trend.

Last week, Bitcoin dropped about 15%, from ~$88,000 to ~$74,400. Beneath the surface of prices, the structural behavior of capital from different market groups is what stands out.

🔍 Important On-Chain Observations

On April 7, a crucial moment:

- Short-term holders (STH) reduced realized capital by $10 billion, possibly due to transferring over $9 billion to long-term holders (LTH) and less than $1 billion in realized losses. This is the largest decrease in realized capitalization in this cycle.

- LTH increased realized capital by an additional $9.7 billion, indicating significant accumulation.

📊 This is not just a coincidence: the market is transferring coins from weak hands to strong hands.

April 8 continues the story:

- STH losses slowed down significantly (–$693 million), showing signs of exhaustion.

- LTH continued to accumulate, adding $1.13 billion to their cost basis—despite sideways price movement.

🧠 Interpretation

The divergence between STH and LTH is noteworthy:

- Short-term investors are panic selling: taking losses.

- Long-term investors are confidently buying: absorbing supply.

- This behavior often marks the late stage of a correction or the beginning of a recovery phase.

📐 Impact on Market Structure

- The STH group reduced supply: decreasing short-term resistance.

- The LTH group is consolidating positions: a signal of confidence in long-term potential.

Bitcoin has just experienced a decline of ~15%, from ~$88,000 to ~$74,400. But the real story lies in the behavior of different market groups.

🔍 On-Chain Observation

April 7th is a crucial moment:

- Short-term holders (STH) suffered losses of over $10.1 billion— the largest market cap drop in a single day.

- Long-term holders (LTH) increased their market cap by $9.7 billion, indicating significant accumulation.

📊 This is not coincidental: the market is transferring money from weak hands to strong hands.

April 8th continues the story:

- STH losses decreased significantly (–$693 million), showing exhaustion in the sell-off.

- LTH continued to accumulate, adding $1.13 billion to their cost basis—even as prices remained flat.

🧠 Interpretation

The difference between STH and LTH is quite striking:

- Short-term investors are leaving in panic: cutting losses.

- Long-term investors are stepping in with confidence: buying when prices are weak.

This behavior often marks the end of a correction or the beginning of a recovery.

📐 Impact on Market Structure

- STH reduces supply: decreases short-term resistance.

- LTH reinforces holdings: a sign of belief in long-term potential.

The market is likely entering a phase of re-accumulation or bottom formation, rather than prolonged distribution.

🧭 Strategy

April 7, 2025 may be remembered as a structural turning point. The level of losses for STH—along with the absorption by LTH—has all the signs of a bottom being formed.

Addresses accumulating continue to buy even as prices reach record highs. The real market capitalization chart shows that accumulation entities are ready to invest large amounts of capital at these high price levels.

From 2023-2025, real market capitalization increases from ~$20B to ~$160B, Bitcoin supply held rises from ~800K to ~3M BTC. The average purchase price per BTC for accumulating addresses increases significantly, but the accumulation rate does not decrease. This is strong evidence of buying with high confidence regardless of price increases.

By the end of 2024, the gap between the real market capitalization of retail and whales expands:

- Large investors accelerate average dollar cost at higher price levels.

- Retail accumulation continues to increase but cannot compare to the investment of large entities.

- This difference is a classic signal of smart money preparing for supply shocks in the next market cycle.

Market impact:

1. Supply pressure

Removing BTC from circulating supply into non-selling addresses creates gradually increasing supply pressure, which may become clearer after periods of market volatility.

2. Confidence through volatility

Continuous accumulation through both declining and rising price phases reflects significant confidence from holders regardless of short-term price fluctuations.

3. Future supply dynamics

If this accumulation trend continues, a large portion of Bitcoin's fixed supply will be held by long-term entities, potentially amplifying the impact of future supply shocks.

Bitcoin still maintains a strong correlation with the stock market. Since the end of September 2024, the correlation rate between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has fluctuated around 0.8, indicating a close connection. Similarly, since mid-August 2024, Bitcoin and Nasdaq also have a stable correlation with a similar rate. This confirms that Bitcoin remains closely tied to major stock indices.

Investor behavior on Binance is an important indicator, with the highest trading volume in the market.

Currently, traders on Binance are showing a negative trend towards Ethereum. Open interest continues to decline and is now below the 365-day moving average.

From a peak of $7.78 billion on December 16, open interest has decreased by more than 50%, losing nearly $4 billion in just four months!

This decline significantly impacts Ethereum's price, and the downward trend shows no signs of slowing down.

This reflects higher risk aversion from investors and recent levels of liquidation.

Ethereum is far from achieving stability if this trend continues.

The average price at which Ethereum holders bought in is $2.2K, indicating that most are currently at a loss.

The next important support level is around $1.29K, which is the average price of "whales" holding more than 100K Ethereum.

Even during the Luna crisis on June 18, 2022, Ethereum hit a low of $870 and showed signs of recovery.

The chart "Bitcoin: Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands" shows the price of Bitcoin compared to the realized price of coins held by short-term holders, specifically those who bought BTC from 1 week to 1 month ago (green line) and from 1 month to 3 months ago (purple line). The upward trend in these age groups often marks the beginning of a bull market. For example, in late 2020 and early 2024, the realized price began to rise before the price surged, signaling an early accumulation phase.

At market peaks such as April 2021, November 2021, and March 2025, the realized price for the 1m–3m group tends to move sideways or decline, indicating that short-term holders are beginning to take profits. In bear markets like 2022, these age groups often decline and form support levels when prices hit lows, as seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.

In early 2025, the price of Bitcoin corrected after surpassing $100K. The realized price for the 1m–3m group is decreasing, suggesting that recent buyers may be experiencing losses. If this trend continues, it could lead to a cooling off of the market or an extended accumulation phase.

Data from February 2025 shows that Bitcoin has recorded its first annual profit lower than gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq during this cycle.

After the strong surge of 2023-2024, Bitcoin is undergoing a typical correction phase following the speculative bubble peak. Annual returns: BTC 25%, Nasdaq 33.5%, S&P 500 33.9%, gold 69%.

This profit gap began in early Q1 2025 and is widening, marking an important turning point in the Bitcoin cycle.

Despite the declining profits, Bitcoin's volatility remains high, increasing investment risks compared to traditional assets during this correction phase.

History shows that this is a sign of market maturation, preparing for a new accumulation phase for long-term investors.

The signal from the Hash Ribbon indicator shows that miners' capitulation has occurred but quickly reversed. Although the price of Bitcoin is adjusting, there are no signs of prolonged capitulation from miners.

In a bull market, capitulation can occur but usually only lasts after significant declines. Recently, the prolonged capitulation ended as the trend reversed and the price of Bitcoin started to rise again.

The Miner Position Index (MPI) is below 0, indicating no selling pressure from miners. The amount of Bitcoin held by miners is gradually decreasing, but the USD value is steadily increasing.

Miners continue to operate with confidence, holding less BTC but at a higher value, limiting sell-offs. They act with long-term conviction, indicating that the upward trend remains. Investors should patiently observe rather than panic.

The selling pressure of ETH on Binance is gradually decreasing.

Data from Binance often reflects investor behavior. The taker buy-sell ratio indicates that the selling pressure on ETH is weakening.

This index compares the trading volume of buy and sell orders. Currently, the trend is shifting.

On a 7-day average, this ratio has returned to a positive zone.

If this trend continues, ETH may temporarily escape from the bearish state and form a bottom.

Although the trend is still weak, this is a positive sign for ETH.

XRP recorded a positive net flow of +275,029 tokens into centralized exchanges (CEX) on April 5th. This strong cash flow often signals an increased selling intention.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price remains stagnant, reflecting market hesitation. This causes altcoins like XRP to generally have lower investment confidence. Data shows that investors are moving assets back to exchanges, possibly preparing to sell or reduce risk.

The increase in XRP's net cash flow may serve as a warning signal for the altcoin market if Bitcoin does not regain upward momentum.

All types of altcoins are performing worse than Bitcoin in terms of market capitalization growth. The chart compares the market cap growth of Bitcoin, large-cap altcoins, and mid-small cap altcoins through the difference between the 365 DMA and the 30 DMA. This gap is an indicator of growth momentum.

Currently, this ratio has reached a level similar to that in October 2023. History shows that when this ratio is negative, it often signals a strong correction, which could be a buying opportunity.

Note: This is an overview of large and small-cap altcoins, not applicable to each individual token. Each altcoin needs to be analyzed separately and in a specific context.

Ethereum is struggling. While Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in November '24, Ethereum has yet to break its record despite the recent ETF approval.

The main reason? Sellers are overwhelmingly dominant.

They have outnumbered buyers since February 2024—more than a year. During this time, the price of Ethereum has dropped from around $4,000 to $1,800.

However, the situation may be changing.

Sellers are losing momentum. Net selling volume is showing lower levels, while the price of Ethereum is making lower lows—a classic bullish divergence.

It may just be a matter of time before sellers lose control and buyers take the lead. This shift could mark a bottom.

Whether it’s temporary or a long-term reversal is hard to say at this moment—but one thing is almost certain: the bottom is near.

Bitcoin is approaching the peak of the bull cycle. The Bitcoin trading volume ratio over the past 6-12 months indicates that capital has flowed into the market during this cycle. Usually, this ratio decreases for the first time, signaling the end of the early stage of the bull cycle. Then, it decreases again, lower than the first decrease, marking the end of the bull cycle. In March 2024, Bitcoin reached an important midpoint and is now heading towards the peak of this cycle.

Binance attracts users to return quickly after their first deposit.

- Nearly 10% of users return on Day 1, indicating immediate trading interest.
- By Day 7, a third of users have deposited more funds.
- By Day 16, over 50% of returning users have made a second deposit.
- After Day 19, the return rate drops below 1% each day.

This data shows that Binance is a popular platform for active trading, with many users quickly returning to continue participating.