Bitcoin has just experienced a decline of ~15%, from ~$88,000 to ~$74,400. But the real story lies in the behavior of different market groups.
🔍 On-Chain Observation
April 7th is a crucial moment:
- Short-term holders (STH) suffered losses of over $10.1 billion— the largest market cap drop in a single day.
- Long-term holders (LTH) increased their market cap by $9.7 billion, indicating significant accumulation.
📊 This is not coincidental: the market is transferring money from weak hands to strong hands.
April 8th continues the story:
- STH losses decreased significantly (–$693 million), showing exhaustion in the sell-off.
- LTH continued to accumulate, adding $1.13 billion to their cost basis—even as prices remained flat.
🧠 Interpretation
The difference between STH and LTH is quite striking:
- Short-term investors are leaving in panic: cutting losses.
- Long-term investors are stepping in with confidence: buying when prices are weak.
This behavior often marks the end of a correction or the beginning of a recovery.
📐 Impact on Market Structure
- STH reduces supply: decreases short-term resistance.
- LTH reinforces holdings: a sign of belief in long-term potential.
The market is likely entering a phase of re-accumulation or bottom formation, rather than prolonged distribution.
🧭 Strategy
April 7, 2025 may be remembered as a structural turning point. The level of losses for STH—along with the absorption by LTH—has all the signs of a bottom being formed.