As of June 5, 2025, Bitcoin's price is approximately $105,031, with a 24-hour high of $105,993, up nearly 10% from last month, but market volatility has increased. Considering various factors, the trend in June may show characteristics of oscillation and consolidation, with fluctuations in both directions, as analyzed below:

I. Bullish Support Factors

1. Technical Breakthrough and Institutional Fund Inflow

- Bitcoin recently stabilized at the key support level of $100,000 and broke through the resistance at $105,000, showing a strong short-term technical pattern. A large number of contracts in the options market are being established above $120,000, indicating investors' expectations for a mid-term rise.

Institutions continue to increase holdings: The weekly net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF reached a record $2.75 billion, and institutions like Tether have accumulated a total of 417,000 BTC by 2025, providing liquidity support for prices.

2. Favorable Macro Policy

Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations: If a rate cut occurs in June (current probability about 62%), it may release liquidity and drive funds towards risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical data shows that during the interest rate cut period from September to December 2024, Bitcoin's increase reached 80%.

Regulatory clarity: The progress of stablecoin legislation in the U.S. and the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan' promoted by the Trump administration (which plans to purchase 1 million BTC) has enhanced market confidence in a policy-friendly environment.

3. The medium to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged

Amin predicts that Bitcoin's cycle peak may reach $220,000 - $330,000 based on the power law model, with the halving effect potentially manifesting at the end of 2025. Some reports suggest that if institutional demand continues, the mid-2025 target price could be $145,000 - $200,000.

II. Bearish Risk Warning

1. Profit-taking selling pressure and on-chain signals

Long-term holders (1-5 years) recently transferred $420 million in BTC to exchanges, marking the fifth-largest single-day record since February, suggesting that short-term selling pressure may intensify.

On-chain data shows that some wallets (holding 100-10,000 BTC) synchronized their selling at the end of May; such behavior was seen after price peaks in March and November 2024, indicating a risk of correction.

2. Key Resistance and Technical Correction Demand

$112,000 is a strong resistance level, having attempted multiple attacks since the historical high on May 22 without success. If it cannot effectively break through, it may trigger profit-taking.

The MACD indicator shows weakening bullish momentum, with a divergence signal of "price rise, volume decrease," indicating insufficient short-term upward momentum.

3. Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The Trump administration's appeal against tariff rulings and escalation of global trade tensions may impact risk assets. If geopolitical conflicts worsen, Bitcoin may drop to $85,000.

III. Key Price Levels and Technical Patterns

Support Level:

$100,000 (psychological level and recent bottom)

$97,000 (200-day moving average and institutional accumulation area)

Resistance Level:

$108,000 (upper bound of June's volatility range)

$112,000 (historical high, a breakthrough would open a new upward cycle)

IV. Strategy

1. Short-term Strategy:

Avoid chasing highs, consider building positions in batches, and set stop-loss below $100,000 (e.g., at $98,000).

Watch for breakthrough signals: If it stabilizes above $108,000 with volume, consider increasing positions; if it falls below $97,000, be cautious of a deeper correction to $92,000.

2. Medium to Long-term Layout:

Dollar-cost averaging to smooth costs, using pullbacks to support levels to increase holdings.

Key monitoring of on-chain data (exchange BTC reserves, whale address movements) and Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Conclusion: The most likely trend in June - range oscillation, building strength for a breakthrough

High probability range: $97,000 - $112,000, a breakthrough requires strong catalysts (such as interest rate cuts, accelerated inflows of ETF funds).

Breakthrough Direction Signal:

Upward: Weekly closing price stabilizing above $105,000 with increased trading volume.

Downward: Losing the $100,000 level accompanied by intensified on-chain selling pressure.