哥布林大隊長

#机构疯抢以太坊 以太坊市場近日出現資金大舉湧入的現象，美國現貨型 ETF 幾乎成了「印鈔機」，每日都有龐大資金進場掃貨，導致交易所上的 ETH 庫存快速減少，呈現供不應求的局面。

不僅如此，多家上市公司開始加速布局 ETH，甚至出現購買速度遠超比特幣的情況。例如 BitMine 買入 ETH 的速度比買 BTC 快了 12 倍，渣打銀行更直言直接持有 ETH 的收益空間可能比 ETF 還高。

宏觀環境同樣助推行情——美元走弱、美聯儲釋出降息信號，令市場資金加速湧向加密資產領域。分析師普遍看好後市，認為在 ETF 持續吸金的背景下，以太坊有望挑戰 4500 美元關口，甚至有觀點認為當前走勢正在複製比特幣 2017 年的牛市節奏。

On July 18, #稳定币监管风暴 7, Trump signed the GENIUS Act at the White House, officially incorporating it into the U.S. legal system. He described it as the most revolutionary turning point in the financial technology field since the birth of the internet. According to the new regulations, all stablecoins must be 100% backed by dollar assets as reserves, with 93% of the asset allocation mandated to be in high liquidity instruments such as U.S. Treasury bonds, bank deposits, or cash.

Additionally, large tech companies like Amazon will be prohibited from issuing stablecoins unless they pass strict compliance checks. Significant restrictions are also imposed on overseas issuers—if they do not establish a physical presence in the U.S. and are regulated, they cannot continue to issue stablecoins pegged to the dollar. This move directly affects companies like Tether, which currently has a U.S. Treasury bond holdings amounting to $120 billion, surpassing Germany to become the 19th largest U.S. Treasury buyer globally.

This legislation not only strengthens the binding relationship between stablecoins and U.S. Treasury bonds but is also seen as a new weapon in the strategy of dollar globalization. Some experts have pointed out that this is more penetrating than the SWIFT system. Zhu Guangyao, former Vice Minister of Finance of China, indicated that this move effectively shifts the pressure of over $36 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds to the global market through stablecoin channels, potentially triggering a new round of financial geopolitical games.

Congratulations Bitcoin on reaching a new high

#交易策略误区 A common misconception that many traders often fall into is the trap of 'taking charts and applying strategies.' This means first selecting a classic chart, such as a clearly rising bull market, and then deducing a trading strategy based on this chart. For example, observing that the price steadily rises along the 20-day moving average leads to the conclusion: 'As long as the price breaks above the 20-day line, enter the market; if it falls below, exit the market,' and thus establishing a so-called trading system.

However, the problem with this approach is that you are 'predicting the future.' Because the chart is historical data that has already occurred, formulating a strategy with known results is actually a typical 'future function error'—using future information to influence current decisions, which is fundamentally untenable in actual trading.

A truly effective strategy should be formulated based on statistical advantages, risk control, and objective rules without knowing future trends. Otherwise, no matter how perfect the backtesting may look, it often becomes ineffective in real trading due to market changes and human interference, making it difficult for traders to break through bottlenecks and find a system that truly suits them.

The scale of the US federal debt has risen to approximately 37 trillion dollars, showing significant growth compared to last year, with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 122%, setting a record since World War II. The Treasury is facing enormous refinancing pressure, needing to repay and borrow about 11 trillion dollars in debt over the next year, while interest expenses are expected to exceed 1 trillion dollars next year, surpassing defense spending and becoming the second largest item in the federal budget, raising high concerns in the market about fiscal sustainability.

Additionally, if the Federal Reserve continues to delay interest rate cuts due to inflation, it will further increase borrowing costs, exacerbating the debt problem. Moreover, the tax reform proposal put forward by Trump may add an additional 3 trillion dollars to the debt burden, and although the Senate version has made adjustments, it is difficult to change the overall trend of debt deterioration. Internationally, the turmoil in the Middle East has led to rising oil prices, further increasing price pressures and making the US debt repayment burden even heavier. Analysts point out that if the current trend continues to deteriorate, the total debt could reach 250% of GDP by 2055, which may trigger larger-scale economic risks and market turmoil.

Under the leadership of Elon Musk, the X platform is accelerating the development of its financial services capabilities, aiming to create a "super app" that integrates payments, investments, and trading. In the future, users will be able to manage funds directly within X and are expected to have accompanying credit or debit cards, further enhancing usage scenarios and convenience.

Although the official stance on whether to incorporate cryptocurrency features has not yet been clearly stated, considering X's technological positioning and Musk's consistent support for digital assets in the past, the market generally anticipates that it may eventually introduce cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Dogecoin, becoming a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto world. If this plan is successfully implemented, it could have a profound impact on the global digital finance sector.

The trading characteristics of $USDC USDC tend to be conservative, as its value is pegged to the US dollar, resulting in minimal price fluctuations. Therefore, it is often used as a reserve of funds, for stable exchanges, and as a hedging tool against risks. This type of asset is particularly suitable for investors who prefer stable and safe investments to reduce the volatility risks in the cryptocurrency market.

Compared to mainstream cryptocurrencies that exhibit high volatility and possess high-risk, high-return characteristics, USDC acts more like 'digital cash' in the blockchain world, having good liquidity but lacking significant appreciation potential. As a hedging arrangement in an investment portfolio, it functions as a stabilizer, helping to balance the overall asset structure and reduce the impact of extreme market conditions.

The stablecoin regulatory proposal named the 'GENIUS Act' with the number #GENIUS稳定币法案 is currently being prepared for submission to the U.S. House of Representatives for deliberation. If the legislative process goes smoothly, the bill is expected to be officially passed in the third quarter of this year, establishing a regulatory foundation for the stablecoin market.

According to the draft, stablecoin issuing institutions will need to support their coins with highly liquid assets, such as U.S. dollar cash and short-term government bonds, and must publicly disclose the details of reserve assets on a monthly basis. This regulation aims to enhance market transparency and trust regarding the backing of stablecoin reserves.

In addition, current U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the stablecoin industry has the potential to expand to a 'trillion-dollar level' market size, attracting external attention. As the regulatory framework gradually takes shape, there is also curiosity about whether major tech companies like Apple, Google, and Meta will seize the opportunity to launch their own stablecoin products.

Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, recently proposed a significant plan regarding stablecoins, aimed at enhancing the overall practicality and capital flow efficiency of the Cardano ecosystem in financial applications.

According to this proposal, the Cardano treasury will convert approximately $100 million worth of ADA assets into the platform-supported stablecoin USDM. It is worth noting that the treasury currently holds about 1.7 billion ADA, which indicates a fairly abundant resource.

In addition to the asset conversion, the plan also proposes a collaboration with the internationally renowned hedge fund Brevan Howard, leveraging its expertise in capital operations and market participation to enhance the total value locked (TVL), trading depth, and liquidity performance of the entire ecosystem, thereby laying a more solid foundation for the DeFi development of Cardano.

In the cryptocurrency market, many retail investors often fall into typical mistakes due to emotional influences. Here are two common investment traps that are worth paying special attention to:

The behavior of chasing highs and selling lows is a psychological pitfall that many investors find difficult to avoid. When coin prices rise rapidly, they often enter the market at high points out of fear of missing out, lacking calm judgment; but once the market turns sharply downward, they panic and exit at low points. This operational mode contradicts the basic principle of 'buy low and sell high,' ultimately leading to reverse trading and paper losses.

Another common mistake is impulsive entry and exit driven by emotions. Many people, seeing a certain cryptocurrency surge in a short period, blindly follow without in-depth analysis, or easily believe rumors and opinions from social media and group influencers. Thoughtless trading behavior not only lowers the win rate but also can lead to wrong decisions during periods of market volatility, increasing the chances of losses. Therefore, rational analysis and self-judgment are key to reducing risks.

#看懂K线 Learning to read K-line charts is an important foundation for mastering technical analysis and developing trading strategies. Below is a summary to help you understand the basic structure and common signals of K-line charts in the cryptocurrency market:

Each K-line is mainly composed of three parts:
K-line Body displays the price movement range from opening to closing within a certain period. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, it is usually drawn in green or white (indicating a price increase); if the closing price is lower than the opening price, it is represented in red or black (indicating a price decrease).
Wick reflects the price fluctuation range during the period, including the upper wick and lower wick. The upper wick represents the highest price of that period, while the lower wick represents the lowest price.

The different colors of K-lines intuitively reflect the market's rise and fall during that period and are of great significance for identifying market sentiment and predicting future trends. By observing specific patterns and combinations, such as engulfing patterns, hammer, and doji, one can assist in determining trend reversals or continuations, serving as a reference for entering or exiting the market. Familiarity with these basics helps in making more logical operational decisions in the cryptocurrency market.

The recent series of cryptocurrency policies launched by South Korea is groundbreaking and strategic. Through the promotion of the 'Digital Asset Basic Act', it is expected to establish clearer regulations and protection mechanisms for the entire virtual asset market. At the same time, supporting spot ETFs for Bitcoin and allowing the national pension fund to engage in crypto investments will help attract more capital into the industry.

Additionally, if the plan for a Korean won-denominated stablecoin is successfully implemented, it will enhance international trading efficiency and strengthen protection mechanisms for investors. Once these policies are implemented and operate successfully, South Korea may become an important demonstration country in Asia for advancing cryptocurrency applications, further encouraging other economies in the region to accelerate their research and deployment of digital asset-related policies.

The issuer of the stablecoin USDC, Circle, has recently successfully landed on the New York Stock Exchange with the stock code CRCL. Its IPO was priced at $31 per share, and on the first day of trading, it soared to $83.23, with an increase of over 160% that day. On the second day, it rose by nearly 30%, accumulating a total increase of 247% over the two days, and the company's market value quickly approached $22 billion.

This listing event highlights the enthusiasm of the capital market for stablecoins, especially under the backdrop of U.S. authorities gradually releasing favorable policy signals for crypto assets. The total circulation of USDC has surged from $32 billion at the beginning of the year to over $61 billion currently, indicating its increasingly widespread application in cross-border payments, crypto trading, and decentralized finance, becoming an important bridge between mainstream finance and the blockchain world.

In the field of cryptocurrency, protecting property security has always been the core concern of every user. Common storage methods mainly include hot wallets and cold wallets, each with its own characteristics. Hot wallets are usually deployed on mobile phones or computers, making it easy to conduct quick transfers and transactions, but due to their continuous connection to the internet, they are more likely to become targets for hackers. Cold wallets, on the other hand, are completely offline, such as hardware devices or paper wallets, which significantly reduce the risk of being attacked. They are suitable for storing long-term or large amounts of cryptocurrency assets, but are less flexible and not conducive to frequent operations.

To achieve a higher level of security, it is recommended to adopt a hybrid strategy: use hot wallets for small payments and daily use, while cold wallets are used to store core assets. In addition, setting up two-factor authentication, regularly backing up private keys, choosing strong passwords, and avoiding operating assets in public Wi-Fi environments are all basic steps to enhance protection. Overall, the key to asset management lies in risk diversification and good security habits.

#特朗普马斯克分歧 Musk and Trump have transformed from former partners to adversaries, indicating that a deep restructuring of interests has begun. Once, they jointly promoted Dogecoin, boosted electoral prospects, and challenged mainstream narratives, but now they have publicly split, exposing each other's shortcomings, which shows that the foundation of trust between them has collapsed. Musk no longer targets policies or positions, but instead directly strikes at Trump's most sensitive personal issues, sending a clear signal: I am cutting ties with you, and clearly drawing the line. Beneath the seemingly calm surface lies a tumultuous undercurrent; once the connection between power and capital is torn apart, the real shocks in the market are just beginning. This fallout is far more intense than it appears, and its impact may even surpass the election itself, affecting the entire financial and technology sectors, while future uncertainties will further intensify.

In the cryptocurrency world, 'trading liquidity' refers to how active a particular cryptocurrency is being bought and sold in the market. In simple terms, it means how easy it is to buy or sell. Take Binance as an example: major cryptocurrencies like BTC or ETH have high liquidity because many people trade them daily, making it quick to buy or sell, and their prices are relatively stable. However, for lesser-known coins, poor liquidity may result in difficulties in buying or selling, or significant price fluctuations. Many people also consider liquidity when choosing cryptocurrencies to avoid stuck orders or excessive slippage.

In the cryptocurrency world, the so-called "trading pair" refers to a combination of using one currency to buy another. For example, BTC/USDT commonly seen on Binance means you can use USDT (a stablecoin) to buy BTC (Bitcoin), or exchange BTC for USDT. The most commonly used currency by the general public is USDT as a base currency because it is more stable and not prone to large fluctuations. Some people also use BNB or ETH to exchange for other coins, depending on which has lower transaction fees or which coin is currently popular. Choosing the right trading pair can sometimes affect your costs and trading efficiency.

#贸易战缓和 According to the latest agreement reached, the U.S. has committed to adjusting a series of tariffs on Chinese goods before May 14, 2025. Specifically, the U.S. will suspend the originally scheduled 24% additional tariff on the goods listed in Executive Order No. 14257 signed on April 2, 2025, for a period of 90 days, while still retaining a 10% tariff rate. At the same time, the relevant tariff measures from Executive Orders No. 14259 and No. 14266 issued on April 8 and April 9, 2025, will be canceled.

In response, China will also synchronize adjustments to the tariff arrangements for U.S. goods involved in Announcement No. 4 of 2025: the 24% tariff rate will not be implemented during the initial 90 days, and a 10% tariff rate will be retained. In addition, the additional tariffs on relevant U.S. goods in Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 will be canceled, and processes to suspend or revoke non-tariff countermeasures implemented since April 2 will be initiated. This series of measures will help ease bilateral tensions and create a favorable environment for subsequent economic and trade dialogues.

The initiation timing of altcoins is usually influenced by a combination of factors such as market capital flow, sentiment indicators, and technical chart structures. Based on the current market development trends, the second half of 2025 (the third to fourth quarter) may be a key moment for altcoins to experience a breakout. Especially after Bitcoin successfully stabilizes above $100,000 and enters a consolidation phase, mainstream capital is expected to gradually shift towards mid and small-cap tokens with growth potential, driving the sector rotation market to unfold. Additionally, the current sentiment in the crypto market is at a 'greed' stage (the fear and greed index is at 73), indicating that investors' risk appetite is rising, which also provides a psychological and financial foundation for altcoins to explode upwards.

Ben Caselin, the Chief Marketing Officer of #加密市场反弹 ALR, stated that as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize above the $100,000 mark, the possibility of the price breaking through $110,000 is rapidly increasing. He noted that retail investors typically enter the market during the second half of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, and this phase is expected to reach a macro peak in the fourth quarter of this year.
Charlie Sherry, the Chief Financial Officer of the Australian exchange BTC Markets, believes that while $100,000 may create some psychological pressure, the development trend of Bitcoin seems destined to move towards higher price levels, and 'adding another zero to the price' is just a matter of time.
At the same time, well-known crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano emphasized that the evolution of geopolitical and global economic environments, particularly the progress of trade agreements, is increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin refreshing its historical high by 2025. Overall, the market sentiment is becoming optimistic.