Data-Driven Trading: Richard Dennis's Secret Formula for Winning
RICHARD DENNIS Let's be honest, aren't you tired of investing in someone else's beach house? Of seeing how your money pays for the Lambo of someone who boasts on social media that they know how to trade, all with your money. Now to the point, how to change from being an obligated donor in the markets, and I believe you didn't know this story... Do you know the trading legend who transformed the trading game FOREVER in the 80s? He started with $400 from his father and transformed it into more than $200 million, thanks to his vision.
THE CERTAINTY OF ERROR: REAL TRADING EVEN IF IT HURTS
TRADER In trading, one of the most common mistakes is not in the markets, the charts, or the numbers, but in OUR OWN MIND. And the worst part is that many times we are unable to see it. Daniel Kahneman, psychologist and Nobel Prize in Economics, left us a key teaching: we struggle to admit mistakes because it forces us to abandon the safety of our beliefs, even when they no longer serve us. It's curious, isn't it? We prefer to cling to what feels familiar, even if it is leading us to failure, because change scares us. The fear of the unknown—of stepping out of our mental comfort zone—paralyzes us, even when we know that the path we are following is leading us to ruin.
Anticipation and Strategy: The Power of Game Theory in Trading
Richard Dennis What is essential is invisible to the eye, wrote Antoine de Saint-Exupéry in "The Little Prince," which interpreted for trading would mean that the vast majority are so blind searching for treasures that shine that they could not see a muddy diamond because they would immediately discard it, thereby rejecting a greater wealth. Richard Dennis, an old-school trader, said something similar for trading, "If I published my strategy in the newspaper, it wouldn’t work. Most people wouldn’t follow the rules of the strategy and, if they did, they wouldn’t do it long enough for it to work."
What strategy lies behind the portfolios of legendary investors like Warren Buffett, who maintain a similar percentage in different stocks?
It's easy to assume that this approach is based solely on diversification. However, there is a deeper and more strategic logic behind this practice that deserves to be explored.
1. Knowledge and Understanding of the Business Buffett is known for his Value Investing approach, which involves investing in companies he considers undervalued relative to their true intrinsic value. This approach is based on a deep understanding of the companies he invests in. He analyzes to ensure he understands the business model, competitive advantage, and management of the company. This allows him to allocate capital by choosing companies with solid growth potential.
2. Long-Term Risk Reduction This capital allocation helps mitigate risk. Although Buffett has concentrated his investment in a few key companies, his overall strategy involves maintaining a balanced portfolio to withstand market volatility. Protecting himself against the possibility of a single investment failing. This is relevant in an uncertain market environment.
3. Focus on Long-Term Value Buffett is a firm believer in long-term investing, which is why he also focuses on sustained growth. This approach allows him to benefit from capital appreciation over time, rather than seeking quick profits.
And what if we apply this logic to investing in cryptocurrencies, where volatility and risk abound, starting from the fact that we do not know how to invest? If we subscribe to an Index-Linked Investment Plan (Top 10) with DCA and invest 1 dollar daily for 6 months applying Buffett's logic, assuming the Index has an average return of only 20%, you would have a total gain of 36 dollars plus your investment capital of 180$ , totaling 216$ in 6 months without doing anything more than investing 1 dollar daily.
Warren Buffett, a titan of investments, leaves us today with a profound lesson encapsulated in two powerful ideas:
The first thing we must understand is that time is our most valuable resource. In his philosophy, Buffett reveals that compound interest is a powerful ally; when used wisely, time becomes money's best friend. He invites us to understand that, although we can accumulate wealth, time, once lost, cannot be recovered.
With this idea in mind, Buffett made two bold moves: he sold a significant portion of his shares in Apple and Bank of America, and donated another considerable portion to his children. Behind these decisions is a deep understanding of the cycle of life and finances.
1. The wisdom of time: “The devil knows more because he is old than because he is the devil.” By liquidating assets, Buffett not only seeks flexibility for future investments but also embarks on a tax optimization strategy. By disposing of stocks that have not yielded results, he can offset gains from other investments, a tactic known as tax-loss harvesting. This strategy, simple yet powerful, teaches us that intelligence in investing goes beyond numbers; it’s about planning ahead and being shrewd in every move.
2. The legacy of a visionary: Buffett is aware of his mortality and the impact he leaves behind. By donating shares instead of cash, he avoids capital gains taxes, ensuring that his legacy endures. Every action he takes is a reminder of the responsibility we have as investors: we do not only accumulate wealth, but we also build a legacy.
The lesson we can draw is clear: time and strategy are essential on the path to financial success. It is not just about having money, but knowing how and when to use it.
True value does not lie in quantity but in how to create impact, both in our lives and in the lives of others.
Trump-Era Euphoria: Bitcoin Breaks Barriers, But What About Altcoins?
The recent victory of Donald Trump, a president known for his pro-crypto stance, has created an interesting scenario for Bitcoin and altcoins. With Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $76,420, the market is at a crucial point. However, despite this milestone, Bitcoin ETFs are showing outflows, which could indicate that investors are taking profits or revaluing their positions amid a changing political and economic environment.
The fact that altcoins are not reaching new all-time highs suggests a lack of confidence or interest in diversifying away from Bitcoin at the moment. This could be influenced by the perception of Bitcoin as a safe haven in times of political uncertainty, especially with a president who could favor crypto-friendly policies.
Looking at the BTC liquidation map, we see that the most significant leverage in Bitcoin sits around $74,186 at $181 million. This concentration suggests that investors are being cautious, with no significant leveraged positions indicating a massive move in either direction. This reflects a lack of consensus on the market's next move, which could be a sign of consolidation in the near term.
The Greed and Fear Index, sitting at 77, indicates that the market is in a state of greed, which often precedes a correction. However, the absence of any signs of new highs for now could suggest that investors are waiting for more clarity as to the market's direction before committing further.
This is a time to keep a close eye on Trump's policy developments. And don't forget that history has taught us that "the market can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent," as John Maynard Keynes said.
Little Capital? Don't Jump into the Void Without Knowing These Investment Keys
Investment Keys Every day, millions of people go out to make money. Thousands of them look for what to invest in. Hundreds choose cryptocurrencies to try to multiply their little capital. And of these hundreds, only a few succeed. In the ratio of 100, 50 will be scammed in one way or another, due to greed, ignorance, or both. 20 will come out confused and upset believing that the crypto market is only ruthless to those with little capital. The other 20 will continue trying to make some return and will achieve it in the long term, but it will be sporadic because they treat it as a betting game. The remaining 10% will try to recover and if they understand from now that it was a matter of doing it right from the beginning, and doing it right does not mean asking the audience what to invest in but figuring it out for yourself, it will already be a better start.
Many beginners enter the market with the illusion that trading is an instant soup: you just need a little enthusiasm, add hot water and that's it. You can sit on your comfortable couch and keep playing the Play while the profits flow in. But the reality is very different.
No idea, business or dream has ever come true just by snapping your fingers or pouring hot water into a packet. The truth is that you will have to give something in return.
If you really want to make a living from trading or generate income that allows you to have a second income, you have to change your mindset.
This is where the four fundamental pillars of trading come in, the ABCD that you cannot skip if you want to learn:
1. Invest in your Learning: The first step is to decide if you want to invest time or money in your education. Whether you pay for a mentor or learn on your own, the key is not to continue giving away your meager savings to those who are already successful. Remember, knowledge is your best ally.
2. Strategic Planning: Having a plan and sticking to it is crucial. Set clear entry and exit targets, determine when is the right time to trade and when you should abstain. Avoid trading if you don't know at least the basics.
3. Risk Management: Don't put all your capital into cryptos without understanding what you're investing in. Define how much money you'll allocate to trading futures, how much to buy on the spot market, and consider strategies like DCA or another strategy, but don't do this if you don't know the first one yet.
4. Emotional Discipline: Controlling fear and greed is essential. Don't keep playing with your salary. Learn first.
Finally, a lesson that will mark your before and after: keep a record of your actions in the market. Write it down and review it. Only then will you learn from your failures.
Most people don't want to be responsible for their own success. They prefer to look for a magic system that allows them to make money effortlessly.MD
Why can't you ever guess the direction of the market?
If you're a beginner, you're probably wondering why the market always seems to go against you.
Many people fall into the trap of FOMO, that fear of missing out on gains that seem within reach. When the market is going up sharply, excitement and euphoria can lead you to buy at the wrong times, just when institutional investors and experienced traders are selling their positions at those high peaks. The result: you get stuck, believing that the market always goes up and that the fall will never come.
This phenomenon is mainly caused by two reasons:
1. Herd mentality: Professionals are experts at taking advantage of the behavior of the masses. They know that most newbies feel that they can't let that winning crypto go. With the bias of greed and emotion running high, they buy without thinking. But, while they buy, the market is about to make its inevitable pullback, driven by the sales of those who know when to get out.
2. Lack of knowledge of trading basics: Many newbies are unaware of when to buy or sell, lack a solid strategy, and do not understand market cycles. This lack of knowledge leads them to make the same mistakes over and over again, leaving the path clear for traders who have learned. The latter have overcome the traps of their emotions, have tested their own strategies. They are the ones who understand that trading is an art that is forged in the fire of experience.
If you have not yet gone through this learning process, it is time to ask yourself if you want to continue playing chips, or are you willing to train your mind to trade like a professional. Leave the complaint behind and think twice before buying at a high point. Don't be liquidity.
This is a game of probability where you must not only know when to buy and sell, but understand how others think and act and take advantage of it.
It's time to face an uncomfortable truth: many of you will never be profitable. And it's not because of a lack of opportunities or tools, but because of a mediocre and erroneous mindset that prevails in the community.
The herd mentality is a deadly trap. We live in an age where the desire to become an instant millionaire prevails over effort and dedication. You often see people betting their money without having studied a single chart, without understanding the basics of trading, and worst of all, without having read a line about the mindset necessary to succeed.
Trading is not a game of chance. It is a discipline that requires knowledge, patience, and emotional control. However, many jump into the market as if it were a casino, and when things don't go well, they criticize those who try to educate and guide others.
This behavior not only damages their personal reputation, but also tarnishes the public perception of trading and cryptocurrencies. They talk bad about a business they never really knew, because they never spent time learning and never made the effort to understand it. It's like wanting to be a doctor and pretending to trade without having spent a single day in medical school.
For those who truly want to succeed, remember that trading is a journey of continuous learning, not a race to easy wealth. Effort and preparation are irreplaceable.
As legendary investor Warren Buffett said, "Wealth is not the amount of money you make, but the amount of time you can keep it." Reflect on this and decide if you are willing to invest the time and effort necessary to be truly profitable.
With dedication and constant learning, you can change your destiny. But remember, there are no shortcuts to success.
5 STEPS TO READ THE MARKET LIKE A PRO: VOLUME + RSI STRATEGY
STRATEGY 5X I've been where you are right now: desperate, trying everything imaginable, while watching other traders maneuver the market with surprising ease. What was I doing wrong? That question plagued me. The truth is, when you feel stuck, it's hard to see clearly what's actually working and what's not. My path has been one of constant learning and practice. I’m not going to lie to you: I still make mistakes and face losses. But there is one key element that has made all the difference in my journey: my determination to not give up.
95% of traders make this mistake: letting losses run. This happens when they don't admit they were wrong about the price direction. Here are some realistic tips to improve the quality of your decisions as a trader:
1. Detect your mental biases: Not all of your trades will be successful. Setting a clear stop loss limit is essential. And above all, don't hold on to a losing trade in the hope that the market will turn in your favor.
2. Set Stop-Loss and Take-Profit: Avoiding losing your capital is just as important as letting profits run. Work on SL, don't use levels that are likely.
3. Analyze Volume: Many traders make the mistake of going short or long as soon as they see the RSI overbought or oversold, but they don't analyze the volume. For example, in the memes that move in trillions, it is crucial for a short entry to start seeing how the volume decreases as the price rises.
4. Constant education: Enslave your mind to relevant information in the early years. It took many years for Henry Ford to come up with the first single-cylinder internal combustion engine. Do not expect less from trading.
5. If you do not have at least 3 good technical reasons to enter a trade, do not do it. For example, overbought RSi, low buying volume, hammer candle.
6. Capital Management: Rule No. 1 is to preserve your capital. Your strategy must include how to do it. Do not enter with little capital, super leveraged, with cross margin and without SL. The rest of the money you have in the account will be taken to keep your trade open if you are losing.
7. Follow a routine: Repeat what you do well, change what you do not. Compare results. In all businesses that work this is the key.
Investment is smarter when it is more professional. BG
What if I told you that you can turn every post from your favorite square creators into a chance to earn USDT or any other cryptocurrency?
Binance has launched an amazing campaign that rewards you for sharing posts with your friends, family, and on your social media.
It's as simple as 1-2-3: 1️⃣ Share the post link. 2️⃣ Claim rewards in USDT or other cryptocurrencies on Binance Pay as a red envelope. 3️⃣ The more links you share, the more you earn.
So why not take advantage of this opportunity to grow your portfolio while sharing those links to posts that you find interesting or important?
Every shared link is an opportunity to receive higher earnings. 💰
And to make it even easier, here is a link that you can share directly: Comparte este enlace y gana USDT
You can also share that link on this platform and comment on it if you wish, the more you share the greater the rewards and you will also be encouraging the creation of free, useful and educational content with the square community.
TRANSFORM YOUR LOSSES INTO PROGRESS: THE POWER OF THE STATISTICAL METHOD
Trading strategy Have you ever felt trapped in the trading game? That frustration of entering a trade and seeing the price move in the opposite direction is something many traders experience. I know you do too, that every time you get ready to make a move, the market seems to have a plan against you. I have had a trade with the RSI at an overbought or oversold level, where I had expected the price to reverse, only to have my stop loss hit and then, as if the market was laughing at me, go back on the path that would have led me to victory.
Fun Fact: When we talk about the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), complex terms and graphics that seem straight out of a science fiction movie often come to mind. But here's a fun fact that might surprise you: the FED's interest rate decisions don't just affect big banks and corporations, they have a direct impact on our everyday lives, sometimes in unexpected ways.
THE "COFFEE" RULE One day you decide to buy a coffee and the FED decides to "cut interest rates," this everyday act becomes a symbol of economic optimism. With lower rates, taking out a loan to buy a house or a car becomes more affordable, which in turn can increase consumption. More people go out to spend, and that means more customers at the local coffee shop.
The coffee that normally cost $3 could even go up to $3.50 due to high demand.
Now, if the FED "raises interest rates," the story changes dramatically. Borrowing becomes more expensive, and people start tightening their belts. The coffee shop that was once packed with customers may notice that foot traffic is dwindling. The coffee that once cost $3 might stay the same, or even go down, as landlords want to attract the few customers left.
This phenomenon is not limited to just one coffee shop. From apartment rent to streaming service subscription fees, the Fed's interest rate policy has a domino effect on the economy. When rates are low, people are more likely to spend and borrow (which will happen in the future with interest rate cuts), which can create an environment of growth. But when they go up, every penny counts.
Interestingly, the Fed's decisions can change the perception of economic security, consumer confidence, and even the way we relate to money.
You now have the option to "delete the withdrawal option" you chose if it doesn't suit you - a great opportunity to adjust your preferences! But beware: this option will only be available until **September 21**, just before the Airdrop distribution.
Don't miss the chance to make the changes you want. Take advantage and make sure your choice is the best one! 🐹💰
Hamster Kombat Airdrop: 5 Keys to Make the Most of This Launch
Hamster Kombat Take Note: the new Hamster Kombat Airdrop arrived at Binance and you know it, we will also have a launchpool, and the launch at Binance will be next September 26, so I will let you know in 5 KEYS what you should know to maximize your airdrop, how to withdraw, in short: Everything you Need to Know. Let's take a quick look: RESTRICTIONS TO RECEIVE YOUR AIRDROP ON BINANCE: If you are from Venezuela, Uruguay, USA, Puerto Rico, Iran, Canada, Japan, YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WITHDRAW TO YOUR BINANCE SPOT ACCOUNT. But you still have other options. If you are from these countries, you should check if there are any restrictions on Bybit, OKX.
Ray Dalio began his stock market career from his New York apartment in 1975 with just $5,000 and is now the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest and most successful hedge funds in the world.
And today you're going to discover how he built a financial empire that manages more than $150 billion in assets.
Investors eager to replicate Ray Dalio's exploits have confirmed that his success lies in his systematic, principle-based approach.
From the start, Dalio set out to develop an investment method that was replicable and effective, rather than relying on hunches or luck.
One of the fundamental pillars of his strategy is diversification. But not just any diversification. Dalio firmly believes in spreading risk across different asset classes, regions, and sectors. It's a philosophy called "risk parity" that involves allocating equal amounts of risk to each investment or strategy within the portfolio.
This has allowed him to generate solid and consistent returns, even in volatile market environments.
Another cornerstone of his approach is the thorough analysis of economic cycles. Dalio realized that investing in resources to thoroughly understand how macroeconomic conditions evolve and how they affect different markets is crucial to making smart decisions.
This also allows him to anticipate changes in the environment and position himself appropriately.
But Dalio's success is not limited only to his skills as an investor, since these principles not only reflect his wisdom in investments but also a philosophy of life that values adaptability, continuous learning and humility. As Dalio said: "Ego is the greatest obstacle to learning."
Ray Dalio's story is an inspiring demonstration that financial success is not a matter of luck, but is built with discipline, preparation and repetition.
During the 1929 crash, one of the most notable anecdotes was the story of Jesse Livermore, a legendary investor who managed to amass a fortune during the market collapse.
In the months leading up to the crash, Livermore observed excessive speculation and an increase in the purchase of stocks on credit.
"These signals told him that the market was dangerously overvalued."
Based on his analysis, Livermore made the bold decision to "go short" the market, and when the market crashed in October 1929, Livermore had accumulated a series of short positions, allowing him to earn approximately 100 million dollars, an extraordinary sum at the time.
This move not only cemented his reputation as one of the greatest speculators of his time, but also offered him a lesson in the importance of following one's own analysis and not getting carried away by the euphoria of the moment.
Something similar is happening now with the memecoin fever, a high degree of speculation and euphoria at the launch is followed by a fall, which in many cases exceeds the initial price. If we can learn anything from Livermore, it is to be cautious with excessive enthusiasm and to carefully observe what the masses do in these launches, and in moments of maximum euphoria, overvaluation and enthusiasm in the market.
Other keys to keep in mind are to remain calm and disciplined, study the market in depth, risk management, make contrary decisions when supported by your analysis and an issue that great investors, traders and speculators have replicated for decades: learning from mistakes.
The ability to learn from mistakes quickly and adjust the strategy is so essential that if you look closely you will know that it does not matter how hard the fall was, but how quickly you learned to stand up.
And this skill essentially comes from knowing what you are doing.
Because investing in knowledge always pays the best interest.Warren Buffett
TOP 20 ESSENTIAL JAPANESE CANDLE SETTINGS FOR TRADERS
TRADER 5.0 Japanese candlesticks are an essential tool for every trader looking to understand market behavior through charts. Each candlestick pattern can offer clues about the future price direction and today I am going to show you the most crucial patterns that will help you understand price direction in a simple way. (There is a little gift at the end). Let's get started:
There are three crucial aspects of Japanese candles that you should keep in mind: their body, their wicks and their placement. (Save this post for reference)