陈东阳论

$BTC Since breaking the new high to 123300 and experiencing a significant pullback, the market has been trapped in a seesaw battle, which has been ongoing for over half a month. In terms of the duration of this seesaw, a new trend is approaching. If last week the market did not move in a trend, the highs and lows were perfectly parallel, moving in a parallel range, then today's decline breaking the bottom and breaking through the parallel support is different. This is a clear signal of a trend. However, there is still the non-farm data tonight. The hawkish old Powell managed to come back up the day before, so the resistance remains strong. It's hard to say if it can go down during the day; there have been too many false moves recently, and the market structure keeps changing. The trend seems to be approaching, yet it cannot break out, which is forcing those chasing the trend to get caught. But this is the closest it has been to a trend this time...

The white board cannot go down much more; it will still be in a volatile structure before the non-farm data tonight, first needing to consolidate and build momentum for the evening. Then we will see the fundamentals tonight. If it continues to weaken, it will first test 113750; breaking that will lead to around 111500. Overall, the trend is in a dominant position, allowing for a rebound to continue the trend.
#加密市场回调

$BTC Very interesting things were presented by Xiao Xiao. The nine reversals have different outcomes based on different string closures; at midnight, the same time on the short string led to an initial nine reversals producing 13, which then broke downwards. Generally speaking, if 13 breaks down, there will be at least two bearish strings, especially if they encapsulate 13, the possibility of continuation is very high, and the likelihood of the continued 13 moving against the trend is also significant. Therefore, after the night market's reversal, prepare to catch the low point. However, the spot 13 moved back one step, directly forming a continuing 13, making it easier to move in the opposite direction, resulting in a direct rebound of 1100 points. After waiting for a long time, the low point was directly missed; although it was missed, it’s no big deal. This kind of differentiated nine reversals is not the first time, but it is very rare. Details determine success or failure; fortunately, it's only on the short string, if it were a larger level, it wouldn’t be good. So don’t just look at one, pay attention to all.

The daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the extreme, with a one-sided trend this week, so extra attention is needed here. The side that breaks the Bollinger moving average is almost certainly the side that will trend one-sidedly. It’s worth noting the fundamentals of week ④ and week ⑤. Tomorrow at 2 AM, movement will begin, so for now, the likelihood of moving within a range is greater, oscillating to build momentum, and then leveraging the fundamentals to explode. Both long and short have had several iterations; the specifics will depend on tomorrow's market environment and string closure results. #BTC

$BTC The giant whale sold off on Friday, the trend continued to weaken, and it only halted around the 114600 line, before the main force supported it back to 119800 again. Overall, the trend has returned to the high end of the oscillation range. Currently, the low and high points are parallel, while the daily Bollinger Bands are synchronously narrowing. If the parallel high point breaks, it will test the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands. If it does not break, it will go through another round of the parallel range. Therefore, under pressure, it can be contained, but if it breaks, it will rise again. The first narrowing of the daily Bollinger Bands has a higher possibility of moving within the daily Bollinger Bands range. The middle band of Bollinger Bands has also extended to yesterday's low point, as long as it breaks, it can continue further. Overall, it is still not a strong structure, and the high position can still be contained.

In the afternoon, it will oscillate around 119400 to 119700, with a defense at 119950. The short target is 117800, and the wave segment is around 116200. The small long target is around 114400. #BTC

$BTC Yesterday night, the market fluctuated with back-and-forth movements, which was similar to what was expected, with the main forces clearing at 117000. The main forces established positions in the range of 117500 to 118000, so as it goes down, the main forces will still support the market, and it won't easily drop, but rather look at the selling pressure. Therefore, after reaching a low point yesterday, there was an initial slip. Multiple tests did not break the position, with the four-hour chart continuously showing lower shadow candles before rebounding in the morning, followed by another test of 117. It also failed to break the position, just missing it by a tiny bit, which is a bit regrettable. According to expectations, if 117 breaks, it would continue further, then come back up, and then go down again. The trend is quite similar to the movements on the night of July 1. The difference is that previously, the main forces started to sell off gradually, while this time, they have increased their positions. However, after the rebound, they still sold off. Currently, it remains in a tug-of-war. So, after this back-and-forth, where do we go from here...

On the four-hour chart, there have been continuous lower shadow candles, but this cannot be counted as a structure in the trend; rather, it reflects the contest between the trend and the main forces. Therefore, the overall trend still leans towards weakness. The Bollinger Bands on the 12-hour chart have already contracted quite a bit, and the next one will be above the daily line, with the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands having extended above the recent low points. Therefore, if it does not break the recent lows, it can directly break through the middle band. Once the middle band is broken, the previous low points will not hold, leading towards the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands. This possibility is quite significant, so we are still watching for a correction. However, it may also break upwards and move strongly in one direction, but it must break 12 again to do so.

Around 118700 to 119000, the southward long line remains below 11. The short line is 1167. #BTC

$BTC The intraday futures test has not broken the lower support; although 117200 has held, it started to rebound afterward. However, this rebound occurred after the liquidation of the second futures in the evening, and the first futures will also face liquidation at 117000. Therefore, there is a high probability that the rebound will occur after the liquidation of the second futures, followed by another decline. So, the lower end is not in a very stable state. If you gain space, don't be greedy; it's still in a high position. The lower support is at 116700, which is just below the liquidation level of the first futures, similar to the second futures. Therefore, it is expected to first drop to around 116700, followed by a rebound. After that, it will continue to drop. #BTC

$BTC 12 has broken, but it cannot stand firmly. So, does it count as broken? It has been tested twice in a row, but it hasn't been able to stand. If it tests again, the likelihood of standing is very high. And the break point is only 300 points. For the integer barrier, it does not count as a formal break, but rather a false break. Currently, there is an expectation for a pullback in the smaller timeframe. In the larger timeframe, the upper Bollinger Band is still extending upwards, providing room for release, but to go up, it must firmly stand above the 12 barrier. At the moment, there is still space below, and the recent back-and-forth movement has become the norm. According to the wave pattern, the ⑤ wave may end early, which could lead to a drop. If the pullback during the day is strong, then expect to go below 11. A unilateral opening will either happen at the end of this week or next week at ①. Overall, one can lightly engage in the market. Pay attention to the resistance at 120300 and 120800. Short-term level at 108200. Swing level at 116700. Long-term level around 109500. #BTC

$BTC In the early morning, Bitcoin first pulled back by 1000 points, then rebounded by 2000 points, and is currently back to a range of fluctuations. The price movement has been quite volatile. This is why it's said that one should be cautious recently; funds have initially flowed from Bitcoin to altcoins and memecoins, leading to a surge in altcoins and a celebration in the memecoin market. Meanwhile, in the early hours, Bitcoin still experienced a net outflow of 5 units, and by the early morning, it had turned into a net inflow of 4.5 units. Altcoins saw a net outflow of 10 units. This is what we were most worried about earlier. The escape of Bitcoin funds is not flowing to external markets, making it easier for funds to return. This could lead to another rise. Thus, Bitcoin has been performing relatively strong intra-day, while altcoins are on the weaker side. It has been said that these institutions enjoy creating events. Therefore, recently, one should avoid heavy investments and be more cautious. At the same time, pay close attention to market trends. Overall, there is still a possibility that the intraday fluctuations could be a false signal; first breaking 12 to gain confidence, then crashing. It’s not just about the price structure anymore, but also about psychological games. #BTC

Recent trends have been oscillating with back-and-forth movements, and the four-hour chart is all shadows. In the evening, there was a sharp drop followed by a recovery, resulting in a very long lower shadow. Although the lower shadow is quite long, the recent continuation of the trend has been poor, so it may not be able to surge again. It is prudent to take a light position and head south. The evening's market behavior was somewhat anticipated; although it wasn't a statement from the old Baow, it was similar to expectations. The range during the night was quite large, usually around 1000 points is common, while during the night it exceeded 2000 points. For those who prefer heavy positions and chase trends, it seems that opportunity is lost again. Therefore, it’s better not to hold heavy positions; if wrong, it could lead to significant losses.

There has been continuous oscillation for quite some time, with an initial test of the bottom support in the morning, which held, followed by a test of the high resistance, which also held. Overall, it’s still in a large range oscillation, but it can't oscillate indefinitely. After prolonged oscillation, a minor trend will emerge, likely within these two days. Currently, there have been several instances of oscillation without clear directional signals; attention should be paid to breakouts, but positions should be light. The current high still shows oscillation, and it’s possible to continue holding high positions.

Early morning range is around 119300 to 119600, looking at the vicinity of 117500. $BTC #BTC

$BTC Recently, the performance of the second pancake has been too strong, diverging from the first pancake in terms of trend. Recently, the first pancake has maintained a high-level strategy, with its movements showing back-and-forth fluctuations, while the high-level pancake is also being cautious, mainly worried about the second pancake's funds fleeing back to the first pancake. If that happens, the first pancake will rise again, but it has reached a strong resistance level, yet there is still some space for the pancake to take. In the afternoon, the first pancake faced pressure from the upper Bollinger band for four hours, followed by a pullback of 1300 points; the afternoon high-level pancake has likely caught it. The second pancake is truly difficult; it only made a slight pullback before going up again, and its trend has diverged again, while the first pancake remains stable.

In the evening, we will continue with the pullback strategy. Look for the first pancake around 118900 to 119300, with a focus on the 117300 area. #BTC

$BTC The secondary pancake had a slight pullback after reaching a high yesterday and is rebounding again today, testing the upper Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart. The resistance here is quite strong, so when the position is reached, it can go south. Near 3800, it can go directly south. Watch for a test of the middle Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart; if it breaks through, we can expect to see the lower band nearby, which is similar to last week's trend of the primary pancake. Last week, the primary pancake also pulled back to the corner of the lower Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart. However, last week the secondary pancake diverged from the primary pancake's trend, but this week they are currently aligned. Therefore, if the secondary pancake goes down, the primary pancake will likely decline as well. If the primary pancake happens to be under pressure at the upper Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart, it is very likely to break through the daily bottom, and after breaking through, it will stabilize. #BTC

The secondary pancake goes south near 3800.
The primary pancake goes south near 119500.

$BTC The secondary pancake has recently been strengthening continuously, with the daily cycle having achieved 8 consecutive upward movements. The upper resistance has been broken repeatedly, which is somewhat similar to last week's primary pancake. After a weekend of correction and consolidation, if it continues to rise on Sunday night, then it is very likely that Monday will follow the same trend as the primary pancake, initially continuing the upward momentum, followed by a pullback.

The primary pancake's weekend was characterized by a fluctuating structure, with a relatively small range. By Sunday night, there was some movement, a slight rebound followed by a small pullback, resulting in a slight upward shift in the overall parallel range. Since there were no arrangements for the evening, it was also waiting for the weekly cycle to conclude. This week is undergoing correction, and the Bollinger Bands at levels below the daily cycle have already contracted. So the next focus is on the daily cycle, which has more room below. If the weekly cycle continues to open and has more upward extension potential, then there is still a possibility for upward movement. If it levels off or turns downward directly, then we can expect a continuation of weakness. #BTC

$BTC The two pancakes are completely crazy, continuously increasing in volume for a week, with a weekly increase of 20%. The trend somewhat diverges from the big pancake, but it is still forcibly pulling the big pancake higher. However, although the big pancake showed some strength in the early morning, the peak was exactly at the four-hour parallel high point, and it did not break through. After that, it fluctuated at a high position. Currently, the four-hour closing energy bar is below the upper Bollinger band, and the Bollinger moving averages still show no signs of opening. The parallel low point is at the four-hour Bollinger middle band, so it will still test the middle band. If it can break the middle band, then it will be near the lower band, which is the previous energy bar at 116400.

The range around 119400 to 119700 is first looking at 118300. If it breaks, the support at the four-hour Bollinger middle band is around 116500 #BTC

$BTC The market is still oscillating with back and forth movements, and last night the 'understanding king' once again posted a call for a reduction in taxes, but the Federal Reserve remains inactive. They claim that 'the impact of tariffs is starting to transmit, and not reducing taxes is the right thing to do.' For the market, this is a small positive news. In terms of market structure, there was a pullback after a spike yesterday, during which there were back and forth movements. The highs are gradually declining, and the lows are also gradually declining, so the market structure still appears weak. The four-hour parallel line of lower highs is just holding, so we still need to observe the power of the market. Currently, the rebound has provided another opportunity; it can continue to be monitored. Currently around 118700, first looking at around 117000. #BTC

$BTC Week① The main coin started strong, rising sharply to the upper Bollinger band of the weekly chart, but after failing to break through, it experienced a significant pullback. After the pullback, market sentiment turned negative, and subsequently, funds flowed into the secondary coin and altcoins. The outflow of funds was simply because the position was too high, and there were no buyers left. The main players have fled to the secondary coin, indicating that the main coin has tasted success and is now starting to venture into other types, with clear intentions. The more it is like this, the more careful one must be; when the main sell-off occurs, it won’t give many chances. This market has never been kind-hearted, so it’s better to be cautious recently as the market environment is not very good. Even if you miss out, it’s not a big deal.

In terms of movement, there has been a divergence in the four-hour chart between the main coin and the secondary coin; the main coin is unable to rise, while the secondary coin keeps climbing. The lower low of the main coin has not been broken, and the upper high has also not been broken, indicating a corrective structure. Meanwhile, funds have been continuously flowing out, showing some weakness. However, the outflow is not external but rather from the secondary coin and altcoins, which means there could be a potential return flow, something that must be considered. Therefore, while monitoring the high level, also pay close attention to market trends.

In the afternoon, watch for fluctuations around 118700 to 119100, keeping an eye on 116200 unchanged. $BTC $ETH

$BTC The second coin is strongly rising, and only after it reached the previous weekly pivot point did it experience a pullback. The main coin, however, did not rise much; it was only slightly pulled up by the second coin, mainly because the position of the main coin is too high. It touched 123300, which exactly encountered resistance at the weekly Bollinger Bands, leading to a significant pullback. Market sentiment is diminishing, so funds have flowed from the main coin to the second coin and altcoins, with a net outflow of 41.57 million from the main coin. Meanwhile, the second coin saw a net inflow of 309 million. However, this market sentiment is not optimistic. Although the current position is still greedy, funds are actually fleeing, so I do not expect the main coin to continue rising significantly. Unless the second coin encounters resistance and pulls back, causing funds to reflow into the main coin, but at this position, it will only be bought back after a pullback. Otherwise, there are very few who dare to buy at higher positions. The main coin only has the main players still building positions, while retail investors do not dare to enter the market. At this position, it is hard to buy anything; it is even harder at higher positions. It has to drop down a bit to create some attraction before it can rally again. Overall, the main coin is still expected to pull back. It needs to give a bounce before continuing to rise. $BTC $ETH

Look for a rise around 119000 to 119400, and watch around 116200

$BTC The second pancake broke the previous 5-day harmonic starting point, but the upper Bollinger band for the 5-day harmonic has extended a bit, and it is currently just holding on, under pressure it should pull back, going down with the first pancake. Damn it, the first pancake has also dropped a few hundred points, just about to reach the breakeven level, and the second pancake just pulled up a wave, and the first pancake also rose several hundred points. The second pancake has started to sell off one after another, it should go down… #ETH $BTC $ETH

$BTC Although Bitcoin has risen a bit, it is somewhat uncomfortable for the intraday trading strategy, but it hasn't increased too much; instead, after a strong rise, it has seen a decent pullback, overall it's okay. On the other hand, altcoins have surged strongly, mainly because the funds have flowed from Bitcoin to altcoins and other cryptocurrencies, which has pulled Bitcoin up a bit; otherwise, Bitcoin wouldn't have risen at all. Altcoins are about to reach their peak, with the upcoming 5-day moving average being the last point of resistance for upward and downward movements, along with the upper Bollinger Band of the 5-day moving average providing double resistance, both of which are strong resistance levels. Breaking through these levels won't be easy, and the subsequent 9-turn of the daily moving average is also significant. Today's high after the closing of altcoins is also a strong resistance. Wherever it goes up today, it will have to come down harder tomorrow. #BTC
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$ETH $BTC

Yesterday's trend first saw a significant pullback as expected, reaching 3300 points, and then the market oscillated to build momentum for the evening fundamentals. During this time, a small space was gained. Subsequently, we awaited the evening CPI, and the published value was again a false signal, but as mentioned earlier, if the published value exceeds the previous value, then it's a 'false signal'. The trend first faked a move upward, and then after a rise, it took a stronger downward direction. Due to the less-than-ideal entry position, not much was gained, and after the drop, the primary goal was to preserve capital. After reaching a low point, a short position was arranged, still managing to gain some points. The rebound and pullback strength of the CPI were decent, so with limited volatility, it resulted in oscillating corrections, and thus a few points were still gained on the short position. It's getting late, and I'm preparing to rest.

The CPI also was a false signal, so like last time, the upward trend could still continue. In terms of structural movement, the hourly chart broke through the Bollinger middle band with the help of fundamentals, but the entity energy bar still closed below the Bollinger middle band. After that, there were multiple attempts to test the hourly Bollinger middle band, but the breakthroughs were unsuccessful, indicating weakness in the trend. The four-hour chart oscillated directly between the Bollinger middle and lower bands, with the Bollinger lower band already expanding, suggesting some continuation. The key support is the previous low point of 115200; if it breaks, it could extend down to 1000. Overall, after the pullback, it can still rise.

The range around 117000 to 117500 is where it can rise, first looking at the support at the low point, and if it breaks, then around 114200. $BTC #BTC

CPI is approaching, and in the afternoon I mentioned that there would first be a period of oscillation and consolidation before this. The afternoon oscillation has just rebounded slightly. Since the entry point was not the lowest, I did not gain much, so it can be ignored. The CPI analysis is as follows. Previous value 2.4, expected 2.7, the bounce will not be large, so the published value is almost less than expected, which means a false rally. However, if it is greater than the previous value, then it is a false rally. Therefore, it is still best to wait for the numbers to come out before making a decision. #CPI数据来袭 $BTC

Yesterday, there was an initial surge, followed by a pullback, during which three consecutive hits took down 1000 points on the stocks, over 3300 points on the index, and another 1000 points on stocks. Of course, before that, there were also some losses. After the pullback, we continued to observe the market into the early morning, and once again, the trend weakened, just reaching the corner of the lower Bollinger Band on the four-hour chart, only about 200 points away from a direct hit, but it did reach 3320 points. So it's not that it won't go down just because it has come down; we need to look at the trend structure. It’s also not wise to blindly chase stocks just because new highs have been reached; we need to assess the resistance. The previous 119 is a good example, and now it resembles that situation. Those still shouting for stocks near the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart are simply leading people astray.

Currently, the overall pattern is no longer a bullish trend; the trend structure will not have significant pullbacks. The daily chart closed directly below the upper Bollinger Band, while there is still a little space above to touch the band, and the moving averages are not diverging, which means, like the four-hour chart, there is still the possibility of further pullbacks. If there is a further pullback, the upper band will actively converge. If the support below 115200 can be broken, then the trend will reverse to bearish. The evening CPI is crucial; it has already gained volume and needs to build momentum for the evening. The afternoon will also be analyzed before this. Overall, we can continue to watch for pullbacks.

In the afternoon, expect the index around 117500 to 118200. Watch near 112000.
$BTC #CPI数据来袭