Vincent

After doing some homework, the federal funds rate in the last interest rate increase cycle was above 5%.

It happened in 2006/6

After that, the narrative is exactly the same all the way to 2007/1

Just keep mentioning the risk of inflation

And it was released for the first time in the meeting minutes of 2007/3

Compared with the meeting minutes in previous months, which all emphasized that tightening will be continued during the necessary period, the meeting minutes starting this month have removed the

In the 2007/8 meeting minutes, a year or 14 months after the last interest rate hike, a new paragraph was added for the first time, mentioning the economic downturn and the increased risks of economic downturn.

I posted this analysis on 5/31. At that time, I was optimistic that the price would rebound if it fell back to the weekly range.

As shown in the picture below, you can see that the price has completed its return to the weekly S&R, and when the FOMC panic was at 25,000 that day, it was completely absorbed by the wall of pending orders, so that the price held on and continued to rise.

There is a clear indicator divergence in the subsequent price, so it can be determined that the price is about to rise.

This perfect case has also been included in my own company

By the way, I made it very clear when I was drawing this part XD

If anyone is willing to interact with a more detailed version, I will send it to QQ again.

Let me briefly explain with a few ugly pictures how we judged that we were going to go short starting from the end of May, even though there were a few turbulences in the middle. It’s hilarious.

Here are the forecasts released around the end of May

General direction: On May 26, I sent a TG message saying that I would first go up to 27300, then go down to 25300, and finally burst upward. Although there is a gap in the overall predicted price, I can't help it. Can predict the future XD, the analysis is in a general direction, and the facts prove that at least the first two paragraphs I guessed right

Then on Saturday, May 20th, I should have said in the direct call that I was very bearish on the overall market, but I was worried that I would need to clear the short leverage. I first pulled up to clear the short leverage, and then Go down to the corresponding point in front. Why do you think you should go this way?