"You should know what happened during the last interest rate hike cycle."

After doing some homework, the federal funds rate in the last interest rate increase cycle was above 5%.

It happened in June 2006

After that, the narrative is exactly the same all the way to 2007/1

Just keep mentioning the risk of inflation

And it was released for the first time in the meeting minutes of 2007/3

Compared with the meeting minutes in previous months, which all emphasized that tightening will be continued during the necessary period, the meeting minutes starting this month have removed the

In the 2007/8 meeting minutes, a year or 14 months after the last interest rate hike, a new paragraph was added for the first time, mentioning the economic downturn and the increased risks of economic downturn.

Two non-routine meetings were held in the same month

The monthly funding interest rate dropped from 5.25% to 4.75%

In this cycle of interest rate hikes, this month is the first month where we have relaxed our stance. Next, we will observe the next decision and what is mentioned in the meeting minutes to match the history and judge the future direction. If we still decide not to raise interest rates next time, there will be opportunities. You can compare it to the first few months when interest rates were suspended. However, I am not an expert on economic data. I am just trying to practice observing the market. Discussions are welcome.