Daily sharing

After 48 days, Bitcoin has once again reached a historical high, and the overall trend aligns with our expectations. In May and June, we continuously emphasized that the daily level rise of Bitcoin was not completed, and 111980 was not the peak of the daily level rise. However, many still choose to believe that Bitcoin will drop to 90,000 or even more than 80,000, and thus they short it. But today's rise has given them a strong blow.

There is a misconception here; many people are accustomed to using news and fundamentals to predict market trends. So what were the fundamentals in May and June? Firstly, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine war were still ongoing. Secondly, Trump's trade war was escalating, threatening to paralyze international trade. Then there's Trump strongly criticizing Powell, threatening to fire him. The Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut interest rates, delaying the rate cut path. Lastly, the conflict with Iran broke out again in June, seemingly escalating towards a third world war.

The overall macro environment seems to be bearish, what good news is there to support price increases? As a result, many retail investors are betting that the US stock market will plummet, and many big influencers claim that the US is about to enter an economic recession, shouting daily about a stock market crash. Then many analysts say that Bitcoin will also struggle to rise again, as the external market is so poor, where will the funds come from to push it up? Thus, many believe that Bitcoin has reached a historic peak, with a weekly M-top and a daily triple top, calculating that Bitcoin will drop to 50,000.

But can we really accurately predict the mid-term market trends through macro fundamentals and news? Without getting into specifics, many people are singing the blues about a crash in the US stock market, yet the stock market continues to hit new historical highs. What does this indicate? It indicates the power of Wall Street capital; the market is still under their control. Poor fundamentals cannot change the ongoing trend of new highs in a long bull market, slow bull market.

Bitcoin is the same; after American institutions entered Bitcoin, its pricing power has shifted to Wall Street capital. A poor external fundamental does not necessarily mean Bitcoin will experience a significant drop. In fact, Bitcoin has been developing in a long bull, slow bull trend.

So can we completely disregard news and fundamentals? Not really; they can be a reference point for one aspect but definitely not everything. We must not let news and fundamentals completely lead us by the nose. Moreover, the news is constantly changing, making it very difficult for us to predict in advance. For example, if the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran's strong response left the US regretting it. As a result, just one night, the seemingly uncontrollable situation turned 180 degrees and came to an abrupt halt. Can you keep up with this kind of news?


BTC short-term

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only serve as a reference.

1H:

At the 1h level, this should be the real 1h central departure segment of the rise. From the internal structure, it should not be over; it tends to continue to extend upward. If it breaks above 112500, the expectation will be to reach around 115000, and then consolidate a 1h central level before continuing to extend the 4h rise. Only if it drops below 108400 again can we confirm the end of the 4h rise, but currently, that probability does not seem high.

The overall target ultimately leans towards around 120,000~126,000, whether the specific height meets expectations needs to be observed as we go.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, the current 1h rise should be the real central departure segment. Currently, it has only gone through three segments and is not diverging, so after the current fourth 15-minute correction completes, there will still be a fifth 15-minute rise. Alternatively, if the movement is a bit more complex, Bitcoin may fluctuate and consolidate a 15-minute central level in the range of 110000~112000 before extending upward.

Therefore, as long as Bitcoin does not drop below 109700 again, the 1h rise cannot be considered over; it should continue to be bullish.

ETH

Ethereum finally surged to 2800 today. From mid-June to early July, we have continuously emphasized that 2879 is not the peak and that it will continue to rise. The current momentum perfectly validates this. The current 1h central departure segment of Ethereum's rise is likely also not over, as today’s wave of 15-minute rise clearly does not diverge. So after the current 15-minute correction completes, it is expected to continue to rise. If it breaks through 2879, it will first look at the range of 2900~3000. Personally, I lean towards Ethereum consolidating the second 1h central level around 3000 before surging to 3400.

Ethereum can only be considered to have a possibility of ending its 4h rebound if it breaks below 2590 again; maintaining its upper level still looks bullish.

Trend direction

Weekly level: direction is upward, currently undergoing a new weekly level rise, with a target looking above 150,000.

Daily level: direction is upward, currently undergoing a daily rebound, with a daily rise target of around 120,000~130,000.

4-hour level: direction is upward, it seems likely that the 4h rebound for Bitcoin has not yet ended.

1-hour level: direction is upward, the 1h rise is expected to continue extending upward, and if it stands above 11.2, it can further look to 11.5.

15-minute level: direction is upward, expecting at least one more 15-minute rise, or a central consolidation that pushes upward.