保罗大灰哥

The opinion of last week's weekly report was very clear. We have been bearish since Monday. The weekly report also clearly stated that "the C-wave adjustment is not over yet" and the market still needs to adjust;
After that, the market fell rapidly, reaching the lowest level near 24800. On Tuesday, we mentioned that if the shock stops falling, there will be low support, and the low point is more effective than last time; after that, both BTC and ETH formed a 4+ The low signal of 6H started an effective rebound cycle.
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BTC4+6H low chart
So far, the market has also achieved the first target of our expected rebound. The highest over the weekend was around 26,800, which is not far from the second target of 27,200.

[Shark] and [5-0] are both members of harmonic forms, and they are both tools for predicting trend reversal. However, they are the only group of all forms in which the right side may exceed the left side, so it is easy to remember.

In the [Butterfly] and [Crab] shared in the last issue, point D is outside the 100% retracement line. [Butterfly] is [1.272, 1.618). When point D reaches 1.618, it changes from [Butterfly] to 【Crab】.

The Crab's D point is on the XA 1.618 expansion line and on BC's [2.618, 3.618]. The D points of the crab and butterfly are determined by the expansion lines of the XA and CB segments, which is a relatively complicated group.

The harmonic pattern is somewhat similar to the familiar double top, double bottom, head and shoulders, but compared with it, the harmonic pattern is more systematic. Through the explanations in the first two issues, you should be able to understand the "harmonic" pattern. Wonderful thing, right?

In the last issue, we explained the 5-point retracement structures [Bat] and [Gartley] in harmonic patterns. In this issue, we continue to share the 5-point expansion structures [Butterfly Form] and [Crab Form].

The D point of the butterfly pattern and the crab pattern, which is the predicted reversal zone (PRZ), is different from the three patterns of bat, Gartley and AB=CD that we learned about earlier. The reversal zone of the butterfly and crab is at point X. Other than that, the reversal zone of Bat and Gartley is within point X

Harmonic patterns are often used to predict trend reversals, and the corresponding harmonic patterns can be drawn using Fibonacci tools. In the last issue, we talked about the ABCD pattern of the 4-point expansion structure. In this issue, we will share the two major types of structures of the 5-point pattern: the 5-point retracement structure and the 5-point expansion structure.

5-point retracement structures include: Bat pattern and Gartley pattern

5-point expanded forms include: butterfly form and crab form

Today we will learn the five-point retracement structure: bat pattern and Gartley pattern. They are two common harmonic forms, consisting of three trend bands and two counter-trend bands. The second and fourth waves are adjustment waves, retracing a certain proportion of the first and third waves respectively.

Last Tuesday, the market "rebounded" due to a piece of news, with the market reaching a peak of around 28,200. In the next day's morning report, we conducted a real-time analysis of the market and clearly reminded "not to chase long". The rebound during the adjustment cycle is It is a bearish opportunity, and the estimated rebound space pressure level is also given. It is also roughly judged that this may be a rebound B wave market.

After bouncing to 28200 on Tuesday, the market stalled. Although we still hope that the rebound can continue to a certain extent and can once again test 28000-28500 to get a high signal, but unfortunately the market still "draws the door" again at night. .

To avoid becoming a "leek", you need to learn to recognize the signals of trend reversal.

The trading market will definitely fall when it rises to a certain extent, and it will rise after falling for a certain period of time. This is an ironclad rule.

There are many tools for judging trends, such as trend lines, moving averages, etc., which are all commonly used tools, but the information will lag behind. After traders know the market situation and then follow the trend, they will miss a period of profit, or just miss the profit. The trend of pending orders reverses and becomes a "leek".

So is there a tool that can identify trend reversal signals in advance and enable you to buy low and sell high?

Finding support and resistance levels is a problem that most traders need to face, and identifying hidden support and resistance levels is even more difficult. Tools commonly used to identify support and resistance levels include trend lines and moving averages.

In the previous sharing of [Fibonacci Retracement Lines], we learned that retracement lines can be combined with support and resistance levels to determine entry points. This issue shares another tool for identifying hidden support and resistance levels: Fibonacci extension lines.

1. Understanding Fibonacci Extension Lines

Fibonacci extension lines are also called Fibonacci extension lines, which are lines other than the 100% retracement line, such as 161.8% and 261.8%. The commonly used horizontal lines of Fibonacci retracement lines are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8%, which are used to show the actual fluctuation range of price retracement.

Fibonacci retracement lines, as a common technical indicator, are commonly used by traders to identify support levels, stop loss levels, and determine entry points. Compared with most commonly used indicators, Fibonacci retracement lines are advanced and can help traders make better trading plans.

This time we will look at the applications of Fibonacci in the following order

What are Fibonacci retracements?

How to draw it?

How to set up an entry with it?

What is the stop loss position?

Summarize

What are Fibonacci retracements?

The Fibonacci Sequence was proposed by the Italian mathematician Fibonacci in his 1202 book "The Book of Calculations". It was introduced using rabbit reproduction as an example. It is also called the "Rabbit Sequence". Each item in it is equal to the previous two The sum of terms, such as 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34... The larger the sequence value, the closer the ratio between the previous number and the next number is to the fixed value 0.618, therefore, 61.8 % becomes the key ratio of Fibonacci, also known as the "golden ratio".

Technical analysis is a method of analyzing and predicting market price trends. It mainly relies on data such as price and trading volume to determine the supply and demand relationship and psychological state of the market, and then formulate suitable trading strategies.

As an ancient and famous technical analysis method, Dow Theory was created by Charles H. Dow, the founder of the American Dow Jones Company. It is also called "Dow Jones Theory" and can be used to predict stock price changes. It believes that the market price trend is composed of three trends, namely the main trend, the secondary trend and the short-term trend.

According to the rules, we should talk about the B-circle market first, and then talk about the A-share market.

After the market started a downward cycle last week, it went sideways near 26,000. This was after a month of going sideways at 29,000 before it started to go sideways at a new position.

From the perspective of rebound, last week’s rebound was obviously not strong enough. The market reached a maximum of around 26,800, and Ether reached a maximum of around 1,700. This shows that the long force is weak and there is no wide-ranging shock pattern of long and short see-saws. Instead, they chose to consume in a "horizontal increase" way.

And this kind of consumption will eventually cause many armies to lose the best opportunity to rebound.

Winning rate and profit-loss ratio are key indicators that are often heard in trading. In the previous issue, we specifically talked about "Top Trading Thinking - Profit-Loss Ratio Thinking". After reading this, everyone shouted "Refresh your knowledge".

In addition to them, there is another important way of thinking: probabilistic thinking, which plays an extremely important role in trading, and the probabilistic advantage is to make your profit probability > loss probability through analysis and strategy, so that in the long-term trading process Get stable income.

It is a key factor in successful trading and what distinguishes professional traders from ordinary traders.

"Who am I? Where am I? What do I do?"

This is a classic question. It can help you understand your own position, the social environment and class status in which you live.

Similarly, we can also build a trading system through similar questions.

What are the problems? Let’s find out together!

Many retail traders have learned trading skills and technical indicators, but have not formed a system. Most of them are because they are not clear about their own trading style.

If you don’t have a close friend, how can you know your enemy?

How to "know a friend"?

In fact, it is to answer - "Which market should I do? What is my style?"

Standing on the wind, even a pig can take off. This is Lei Jun’s description of the trend.

Whether it is an industry or a transaction, if you catch the trend and follow the trend, even a novice can take off.

Since the trend has such obvious advantages, what is a trend in trading? What tools can be used to determine trends?

First we need to understand the trends

Trend is the direction in which prices tend to move within a certain period of time, including rising, falling, and consolidation. They can help traders judge the mood and motivation of the market and choose appropriate entry and exit points. Generally speaking, the risks and losses of trading with the trend are smaller and it is easier to make profits.

There are many people who can make money by trading, but it is not common to maintain stable profits because many people do not know how to manage their own funds.

If trading is compared to a battlefield, then the trading system is the combat strategy, the method is the gun, and the funds are the bullets, then fund management is the defense strategy and one of the key factors for victory.

There are many ways to manage funds. Let’s learn more about them today: fixed position management and fixed amount management. Who are they? Let’s understand their differences through examples.

1. What are they

Fixed position management: No matter what type of transaction you are trading, a fixed number or proportion of lots is used for each position opening. For example, 1, 3, or 5 lots are used for each opening, or a fixed number of lots is used for each opening. 5%, 10%, etc. of the principal.

The shock that lasted for more than a month is finally over.

The market situation for more than a month has indeed been dull, with low volatility and long-term sideways movement, but we still remain patient. At the beginning of the month, issue 256 [volatility reached a new low in the first half of the year] and issue 257 [volatility warning, outbreak in silence or death 】In the two weekly reports, we have always paid attention to the market and reminded everyone

As the volatility continues to decline, and the popularity of the market for making money has also dropped to freezing point, then at this time, we must pay attention to the possibility that "big fluctuations" are coming. If you don't break out in silence, you will perish in silence. Who do you choose?

In the financial market, trading methods can be divided according to market conditions, systems, profit patterns, etc.

Today we will take a look at the profit form: making profits in a wave, which is simply a way to achieve rapid take-off through a wave of market conditions.

Another form corresponding to the one-wave flow pattern is transaction-by-trade, which is the most commonly used method for our transactions. We will not discuss it here. The protagonist this time is: one-wave flow.

Yibo flow, which belongs to the wave theory, is divided into two types of market trends: continuous new highs and continuous new lows. This unilateral market makes it easy to earn high interest differentials and is an excellent form for obtaining excess profits. .

If your understanding of a concept is confused, your behavior will also be confused.

For example, many people have a big misunderstanding about "trading" - they regard trading as gambling. In the end, their trading behavior will inevitably be related to "guessing the rise and fall", "betting on the big and small", and "playing luck". How to correctly understand trading is the first lesson as a trader.

In the financial markets, there are many different behaviors and strategies with different goals, methods and risks. We are familiar with "financial management", "investment", "speculation", "trading", etc. are relatively common financial terms. If you don't understand their differences, you may think you are investing, but in fact you are just speculating.

Today we will talk about the advantages and disadvantages of the two entry methods of left-hand trading and right-hand trading from the perspective of public trading and professional traders.

Before starting the discussion, let’s make sure that the scope of today’s topic is the trading level, which is the price difference generated by earning fluctuations through the execution system.

Let's take short selling as an example to understand what is a left-hand transaction and what is a right-hand transaction.

From Figure 1, we can intuitively see that the trading on the left is to pay attention to the short positions when the market is rising; the trading on the right is to pay attention to the short positions after confirming the falling market.

After last week [volatility reached a new low in the first half of the year], the market continued to "remain silent". After the 4-12H low signal was issued on the 2nd of last week, the market did not rebound strongly, but tested upward. Then it returned to the shock range downwards.

And the market continued to fluctuate over the weekend, and the market has been trading horizontally at 29,000 for about two weeks.

Judging from the daily line of the pie, after these two weeks of operation, it is already close to the daily trend line. Even if it continues to trade sideways this week, it will reach near the support level. The current price is between 28500-29000. This week we will focus on the support level. Location selection nearby.

When talking about trading, the first thing you may think of is the entry and exit price, the system's winning rate and the rate of return. Perhaps the next thing you think of is the profit-loss ratio.

The profit-loss ratio plays a very important role in trading, which may be ignored by most people.

In our daily transactions, many problems may seem simple or natural, but if you look at it from another angle, you will find the mystery.

Today we will share some "profit-loss ratio thinking" in trading. After reading it carefully, you will definitely refresh your knowledge and gain a lot.