The volatility that lasted for more than a month has finally ended.
The market has been quite dull over the past month, with low volatility and long-term sideways movement, but we remain patient. In the two weekly reports at the beginning of the month, No. 256 [Volatility hits a new low in the first half of the year] and No. 257 [Volatility warning, silent explosion or destruction], we have been paying attention to the market and reminding everyone
As volatility continues to decline, the market sentiment has also reached a freezing point. At this time, we should pay attention to the possibility that a "big fluctuation" may come. If you don't explode in silence, you will perish in silence. Who do you choose?
Dahui, WeChat public account: Paul Dahuige volatility warning! Explosion in silence or destruction? | Paul Quantitative Weekly No. 257
Two weeks later, the "big fluctuation" really came as expected.
This situation is somewhat similar to that in April this year. Usually, long-term low volatility means that the market is about to turn around. This is the second time this year. The first time can be seen in the 240th weekly report.
Since last week [the price reached near the trend line], we continue to remind everyone to pay close attention to the direction of the market, because the trend may be over. Although in detail, the 2H level did not have a rebound wave 5 last week, the daily level fell below on Wednesday, and the trend quantification also turned to "0" short, which actually gave us clear directional guidance and operation time.
This big drop was basically within our expectations. From the early warning of volatility, we knew there would be a "big volatility" market, and then from the breaking of the trend line, we found the key "entry point" and reaped the key profit band. Overall, I am still very satisfied. At least our patience was not wasted.
At present, it can be clearly seen from the daily K that BTC’s upward trend line has been broken since January this year and has entered a downward cycle.
If we look at the impact range of the weekly line, it usually corresponds to an adjustment cycle of about 6 months, or at least 3 months if we are optimistic. In other words, the next two months should be in the adjustment cycle, and we need to wait patiently to buy the bottom.
After this decline, from the perspective of the big cycle, it is basically in line with our analysis in the 255th issue [Big Bitcoin’s Ten-Year Bull-Bear Cycle]. Big Bitcoin’s weekly high happened to appear at a "symmetrical time", which formed a surprising "similarity" with the historical process time of the previous two times. Both formed a stage high about 600 days after the end of the previous wave of "big bull-bear cycle".
1. As of now, we have been running for more than 600 days from the end of 21 to now, and have reached a short-term rebound high
2. 600 days after the peak at the end of 2017, it also rebounded to a short-term high, and then peaked and fell to a low of around 4,000 before starting the upward cycle
3.600 days after the end of 2013, there was also a small rebound top, followed by a correction of -35%. The price was close to a new low, and then began to rise.
Then we can find that in the operation cycle of Bitcoin in the past 10 years, the "bull-bear cycle" and the "bear market cycle" show a high degree of time consistency.
Dahui, WeChat public account: Paul Dahuige Dabing's ten-year bull-bear cycle analysis | Paul Quantitative Weekly No. 255
If we follow this trend, the next adjustment will be the "last squat" before the market takes off. To be optimistic, if the price falls, there will be better and more valuable buying opportunities. So whether it is for bulls or bears, falling is a good thing, better than sideways, right?
At present, the market has rebounded and fluctuated after the spike, but since the short-term spike has exploded a large amount of "bullish power", the probability of a sharp decline in the short term is not high. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound for a period of time before falling again.
I saw a picture online, which is also a comparison of the market trends of the "big bull and bear cycle". If you have lost confidence in the market, you might as well take a look at the big picture.
