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According to the latest survey by the Wall Street Journal, economists in business and academia have reduced the probability of a recession in the United States within the next year to 48% from the 54% predicted in July. This is the first time since the middle of last year that the probability has dropped below 50%, indicating that economists have become optimistic about the future economic prospects. Economists are optimistic about three factors: inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates in the future, and the labor market and economic growth are stronger than expected. BMO economists Doug Porter and Scott Anderson said in the survey: The likelihood of a U.S. recession continues to decrease as banking sector turbulence subsides, the labor market's strong resilience and rising real incomes support consumer demand. Economists expect gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by about 2.2% in Q4 2023 from the previous year, a significant upward revision from the forecast of just 1% in the last survey. In addition, the GDP forecast for next year has also been adjusted from 1.3% in the last survey to 1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to increase next year, but it will still remain at a level slightly above 4%. From a macro perspective, this is historically lower level. As for whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates? The survey results show that nearly 60% of economists said that the Federal Reserve has completed the current interest rate hike cycle, but some scholars predict that there will be a final wave of interest rate hikes. 23% of scholars predict that the last interest rate hike will be in November. , and 11% of scholars believe that the interest rate hike will be carried out in December. Overall, economists are confident in the Fed's ability to achieve a so-called "soft landing" (lowering inflation without triggering a recession), with 82% of economists believing the current interest rate target range is 5.25% to 5.5% It is strong enough to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target within the next two to three years. Economists also predict that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) will fall to 2.4% by the end of next year from 3.7% in September this year, and to 2.2% by the end of 2025. However, economists also warned in the survey that the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will lead to higher oil prices, so there is still a layer of uncertainty about the outlook for the U.S. economy in the next few months, with about 81% of economists Investors are also worried that the recent rise in bond yields to the highest level since 2007 may increase the possibility of an economic recession.

[World War, the Most Dangerous Moment] Dalio of Bridgewater Associates published an article on Thursday entitled "One Step Further to International War," believing that the possibility of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalating into a world war has reached 50%. "I think there is a high risk that this war will lead to several different types of conflicts breaking out in many places, and that the harmful effects it will cause will probably spread beyond Israel and Gaza... The conflict between Israel and Hamas With the potential to ignite other bloody battles, the odds of a world war breaking out are now 50-50." Dalio sees the two conflicts as part of a larger power struggle that will define a new world order. Coincidentally, Jimmy Dimon expressed concerns about the future global situation in JPMorgan Chase's third-quarter earnings report this week: the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East conflict may have a profound impact on energy and food markets, global trade, and geopolitical relations. This may be the most dangerous moment the world has seen in decades. #ETH #BTC $BTC $ETH $BNB