老鲍的币风港

To supplement the analysis of Bitcoin bulls

Chart 1 (Daily Chart): Although the MACD shows a decrease in volume on the daily chart, the buying pressure below remains very strong, so the price is highly likely to start rebounding around 915. At that time, it is important to focus on whether the daily MACD volume changes from weak to strong to determine if the trend reverses.

Chart 2 (Weekly Chart): As mentioned earlier, the weekly chart has a red three soldiers pattern at the bottom, so if the weak weekly chart strongly breaks through the previous high point above, the next price test is very likely to be at the 102k position, allowing the weekly chart to form a reversal while providing more upward potential for the monthly chart.

Chart 3 (Four Hour Chart): In the short term, after the price strongly rises and breaks through the downward trend line on the four-hour chart, it presents a solid breakout pattern. Therefore, the price is very likely to break through to 97k in one go and then undergo further high-level consolidation.

It has been a long time since I wrote about the short-term trend of the market. From January to early April, the market dropped too smoothly.

Even though there was a one-day surge of ten thousand points during this period, it was instantly crushed back down the next day.

The change in the unidirectional trend stems from Trump's shift after April 9, as well as the upcoming U.S. debt maturity issue, and whether the dollar will remain strong has suddenly given the market a risk-hedging attribute.

Currently, the market views on the trend are very polarized, and the bulls are increasing, so we will use the left-side approach to look at the general outline of this week.

Chart 1 (Daily chart): After creating a high point at a high position, the market has started to experience several pin bars above. The MACD indicator in the short term also belongs to weakening bullish momentum, and the daily line is forming an arc trend. If there is no strong breakthrough today, the subsequent trend will show a volatile downward movement. The short-term limit for the drop is expected to break below 908, possibly falling below 87k within three days.

Chart 2 (Weekly chart): The weekly chart shows a strong bullish candlestick supporting the strong red three soldiers pattern appearing at the lower K-line. However, since the weekly close on February 24, there has been no substantial breakthrough above, so the selling pressure remains strong above. Therefore, we might take advantage of this pressure to short the market and see if a downward reversal forms on the weekly chart, potentially engulfing most of last week's gains.

Chart 3 (Four-hour chart): On the four-hour chart, a simple downward trend line has formed. After touching the lower Bollinger Band, the market experienced a pin bar. We can assume that if the upper Bollinger Band cannot be breached today, taking short positions along the upper Bollinger Band would be a very conservative strategy.

The short-term impact of the tariff war on the financial market has already been digested by the market.

The next focus of the market remains on the issue of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. After June, there will be $6.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds maturing, and at that time, the U.S. will need to follow the old path of borrowing new to pay off old debts.

However, currently the interest rates in the U.S. are still too high. The low-interest Treasury bonds that were borrowed initially now need to be paid back with high-interest loans if rates do not decrease.

For example, four years ago, I borrowed 100,000 yuan from you, promising to pay you back 110,000 yuan after four years. Now I cannot pay it back, and in order to maintain my credit, I need to borrow money to pay back your principal and interest.

The problem now is that my borrowing cost is now 110,000 yuan needing to pay back 150,000 yuan, which means my original debt has increased from 100,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan. This is the fundamental reason behind a series of actions by the U.S. administration pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Therefore, we can see that the market is concerned that, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's tough stance, the probability of an interest rate cut in June is still not high, and U.S. Treasuries are facing the risk of collapse. Recently, a large amount of funds has flowed into gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets.

However, the market still has a consensus that U.S. Treasuries will not collapse. In the end, the Federal Reserve will definitely provide a backstop for U.S. Treasuries, whether it be through high interest rates or interest rate cuts remains uncertain.

Thus, we can see that the U.S. dollar index still has not broken through the 100 mark, as money has been converted into gold, Bitcoin, and other assets with safe-haven attributes.

Powell's statement should come during next month's interest rate decision. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June is very high. If rate cuts begin, the strength of the dollar will return, and at that time, gold and Bitcoin will face a decline.

Currently, Bitcoin is somewhat abstract. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, Bitcoin rises with U.S. stocks; if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, Bitcoin rises with gold. Is it really an eternal bull market?

This is how we understand and interpret it, but it does not affect the downward tendency of Bitcoin in the short term. As of this month, after a significant adjustment, the price is expected to enter a high-level consolidation range, where pin bar patterns are more likely to appear.

By the end of the month, it is expected that Bitcoin's fluctuation range will oscillate between 95k and 88k. Whether it will rise or fall will have to wait until next month to see.

The issue of US debt has always been a big problem, before leaving, the Don set a trap for the Don

All of the Don's short-term policies are to serve the US debt

Economists over in America are calling for stagflation to come

Economic stagnation and inflation are on the way

The current focus is to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it depends on whether the people behind the Federal Reserve will fight to the death with the Don

If you can't even settle internal disputes while fighting external ones, implementing policies will be very difficult

The upcoming price is likely to be swayed by the news between the Don and the Federal Reserve

A big surge in the short term is somewhat difficult, and if we're talking about hitting new lows, that's even more challenging

Currently, the overall concentrated range for the price has come down to 88-80, and the price will eventually return to the daily box

Wait for an extremely strong signal to appear at the top of the daily box, and we will continue to look for new lows

I will continue to interpret these types of insights, feel free to like if you agree, and if you disagree, go easy on the insults

I have a glass heart

The recent market trend is fluctuating

It shakes the restless heart

It sways the anxious soul

Up and down, up and down, left and right, BABA

The current trend can be understood in two ways, and we temporarily do not need to look at the daily and weekly trends.

Because the arrangement of candlesticks and MACD at both levels have contradictions and conflicts.

So we can only influence the larger level through the smaller level. Currently, the MACD on the four-hour chart has formed a death cross.

However, it has not yet reached the stage of increased volume. If there is an increase in volume, a sharp decline will follow.

What we need to focus on now is whether it will drop directly or rebound first before dropping.

If it's the first case, then the current price of 845 is a good position.

If it's the second case, then we can short it in two parts.

The first time, we can consider shorting around 865, aiming to close the position at 840-838.

Then wait for the second rebound to around 88 to short again. I believe the monthly high will not be broken.

So if 88 is currently the most conservative and the best entry point, whether it can be reached is another question.

Haven't posted here for a long time

Starting now, ideas will be updated across the entire network 😊😊😊

I went to bed at around 3am and took the roller coaster at around 4am

Fortunately, the price eventually fell back, and now it is a snack

The document signed by the King of Understanding has only one item about Bitcoin, which is to repeal the SAB121 Act. This is a preference for companies that hold Bitcoin and want to buy Bitcoin, which means that their assets will change with the price fluctuations of Bitcoin in the future

It is conducive to raising more money to buy Bitcoin. Before this bill was introduced, if a company bought Bitcoin for $30,000, even if the price of Bitcoin now reaches $100,000, the Bitcoin item in the company's balance sheet is still $30,000, without any change. On the contrary, if it falls, then the Bitcoin item in the balance sheet will show how much it has fallen. Less

This point is quite dissuading many large companies. After the bill is repealed, as more bills are signed, more American companies will join this feast

It is worth noting that there is no final plan for the strategic reserve of big cakes, and it is not known when it will start to move as expected

Since this positive news did not push big cakes to a new high, with the sharp increase in inflation in the CPI report of the daily life, and it is said that there is a demand for interest rate hikes in the afternoon, then the negative news for big cakes will follow one after another. How long can it last? I don’t know

The technical daily line has peaked and formed a sign of a downward relay, so in the short term, it is still dominated by shorts. Pin rebound and bottom-fishing are two concepts

Don’t pattern in the near future is the biggest protection for yourself

The rebound last night was beyond expectations.

I originally thought it would only hover around 950 before coming down.

However, I underestimated the foreigners' determination to buy New Year goods before the holiday, and the price once climbed up to 96k before stopping.

Now, this downward trend line is still valid, as it was quickly brought down after rising.

Moreover, the golden cross momentum indicator on the four-hour chart showed signs of turning back before it could gain strength.

All of this seems like a bait for more buying, and with the overall market closed today, the volatility is likely to be small, which might actually stimulate more buying activity. The monthly candle looks quite good, a hammer bearish line, and the beginning of the month should still see a downward trend.

#比特币走势分析

The video is not very clear

Concise

The price has the possibility of a short-term rebound, but there is significant selling pressure above

It has now moved from the previous 97k to around 94k

See the chart

There are two possible trends: one, a rebound to 94 followed by a major drop without breaking 9, leading to a downward fluctuation tomorrow

The other, starting a drop near 92k, hitting 8 tonight, and a corrective fluctuation tomorrow

As for whether it can return to 90k, we need to refer to next week's data expectations ​​​

This week, on Monday and Tuesday, the annual and monthly lines need to be closed.

The fluctuations are either very flat or a one-sided situation that comes too fast.

To put it simply, it's about selling on rebounds, but we don't know where the pressure is, and whether it can hold up when it arrives.

Chasing now is risky as we are at a support level, and the smaller time frames tell us that buying pressure is strong; we fear it might fall into a pit and not recover.

This means there aren't many good trading opportunities; from the market share perspective, a total market value of 38 trillion has evaporated by more than 3000.

Meanwhile, the altcoins led by Bitcoin are experiencing a large-scale rebound, possibly waiting for Bitcoin to signal a drop.

If Bitcoin doesn't fall, then the rebound of the altcoins will be faster than that of Bitcoin, but it won't last long; don't buy them as family heirlooms.

Only after the annual line is closed will there be a clearer understanding and strategy.

🥶🥶In less than 12 hours

We first experienced a downward shock

Then we endured the pain of a V-shaped reversal

Finally, we managed to come down to 96400 here (the strategy given in the video is this level)

Before we could even be happy for four hours, we fell into the panic of a V-shaped reversal

In one day, the price is still the same as last night's price, and my mind has flipped directions 800 times

Is this the difficulty of purgatory? Can my short position at 96873 still reach the other side?

First, let me share my personal speculation:

After the coin dropped from a high position, it failed to rebound and challenge the 100,000 mark on Friday, and fell over the weekend.

As we approach the weekly close, the price has once again dropped back to around 95k, and there is a possibility of continued decline during the daytime.

Today marks the first day of MicroStrategy's listing on the US stock market, and we can feel the power of institutions.

Additionally, tomorrow the market will close three hours early, and the day after will be a full market closure, leading to relatively poor liquidity, which can be referenced by the weekend's fluctuations.

Since the fluctuation range over the next two days is not large, it is very likely that we will see a rebound and correction from today's excessive decline.

Therefore, my personal speculation is that there will be a one-sided decline today, followed by a rebound and correction over the next two days, ultimately closing the month around 97k.

As long as the coin does not drop below 90k, I will not take a long position. A 6%-7% drop in the coin is a sign of respect for MicroStrategy.

Of course, if you brothers want to go long, just manage your positions well. I won’t block your path to wealth; I just hope you have some risk awareness.

You go to a wedding banquet, you might eat half or leave after finishing your meal.

Later, someone tells you that after you left, they served fruit platters and desserts.

But you wouldn't feel that leaving early was a mistake.

On the contrary, you know that if you rush back to eat that fruit platter, the hotel might already be closed, and you could waste your time and the money you spent on the taxi or gas to drive there.

If you treat each transaction like a banquet, it's about when you sit down to eat and when you leave, and whether you'll regret not having the fruit and dessert after leaving and rush back to have a bite.

The costs incurred this way and the probability of falling into sunk costs are quite high. Let's encourage each other!

If it drops again today, the support at 93k is not sufficient

Another deep squat to 88-89

Then bounce back to around 95-97 to form a monthly K-line cross star is the best scenario

Hope it can go this way ​​​

Today's white market judgment validated my video explanation idea.

What is more abstract is that the order at 1028888 did not get filled.

During the live broadcast, I watched the market drop all the way down, and a voice in my head kept telling me to integrate knowledge and action.

Then I jumped in, and the result was quite good.

A brother asked me, it seems that whether in a bull market or a bear market, beginners always lose money.

In this market, let's not even mention beginners; even Buffett would leave something behind before he leaves.

Trading is about cultivating the mind; while emphasizing methods, one must also overcome many human weaknesses.

The direction seems less important; when the market is falling, I can profit, but when it rises, I will definitely get hit because my understanding is limited, and I haven't deeply grasped the concept of a wild bull market.

However, after this round, I think that when the daily line is about to golden cross below the zero axis, buying on dips will be my main strategy.

Currently, it seems too early; continuing to rebound and shorting is a more standard trading behavior.

Japan has paused its interest rate hike

The US has lowered its rate, but Japan has not

It means the yen has depreciated

The depreciation is good for the Nikkei, will it drive a short-term rise in the price of bitcoin?

The inexplicable rise and fall of the Nikkei is also outrageous

Reference to the Nikkei collapse v rebound on August 5

In the early morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision did not present any unexpected events.

In line with all market expectations, a 25 basis point rate cut was announced, which was followed by Bitcoin continuing its decline.

Several key statements by Powell prompted significant declines in U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.

First: He signaled that there might only be two rate cuts next year, which changes the previous speculation of four rate cuts by 2025.

Second: He wants to maintain a neutral interest rate because he believes the U.S. economy is strong and does not need continuous rate cuts to achieve inflation moderation. Achieving the 2% inflation target will still take one to two years, considering how tariffs could drive inflation (which aligns with new policies).

Third: A crucial point is the statement regarding Bitcoin reserve policy, which slightly differs from previous remarks. The Federal Reserve neither allows nor intends to hold Bitcoin; strategic reserves are a matter for the Treasury.

More delightfully, Trump's son experienced the feeling of being trapped in the crypto space for the first time; it's quite cool—nobility and commoners are not so different after all.

Additionally, some short positions I recommended during my live stream received positive responses, making it feel worthwhile to stay up late.

The trend of Bitcoin has clearly shown a correction trend. This major drop raises the question of whether Bitcoin is a straight shot down or in a downward fluctuation.

If it is the former, then going long anywhere is wrong. If it is the latter, then the 98k-99k range is a good entry point, and the 95-94k range is also a decent entry point. Capturing a rebound and then shorting will be more beneficial for the market.

Similarly, if it is the former, it indicates that the market will lose many trading opportunities. While I worry about the former, I also have a clear understanding of myself, choosing to short on rallies and exiting near perceived support will be my consistent strategy going forward.

To put it in simpler terms, I believe there will be rebounds at certain support levels, but I won't act on them. I will wait for the rebound to position myself to short again until the daily MACD drops below the zero line and forms a golden cross before I start to buy on dips.

$BTC Wednesday, today's market will be slightly volatile during the day

If we have to say which side will be more volatile, it will be slightly more on the upward volatility

We need to leave ample space for selling pressure, and provide enough liquidity for buying during interest rate cuts and Powell's speech

If Asia and Europe directly decline, it is hard to imagine what a collective panic would look like

The altcoin market is expected to remain stagnant, the second coin may be slightly weaker, but the main coin will continue to perform strongly

For example, if it drops to 105800-105500, it will start to rebound, and then rebound to 106800-107300 before starting to fluctuate downward

Waiting for a wave of upward selling pressure to complete the initial selling before the interest rate cut is announced

So if participating in short positions during the day, be cautious and exit early; of course, if you are as strongly bearish as I am, then choose to endure the volatility that comes with it

Today there will be at least three opportunities for high short positions, but each time it may be daunting to act, only in this way can the selling pressure be released smoothly

For long positions, I believe that the level of 102500 cannot be broken; once it is broken, the price will continue to decline in the following days, while also paying attention to the market share of the main coin. If the market share continues to rise while the main coin declines, it indicates that the altcoin opportunity is approaching, choosing the targets you believe in to buy will be a good choice

However, if the main coin falls and the market share also declines, then the altcoin represented by the second coin will be the first to explode, and the market will enter a new round of altcoin rotation

If Powell’s speech tonight stimulates the market again and pushes the main coin to a new high, then a rebound short position on the second coin would be a good opportunity, while other altcoins remain stagnant

The uncertainty for tomorrow is the interest rate decision of the Fed

In this market, if some people go long, there will inevitably be others going short.

If it’s one-sided, ultimately this market will only deteriorate.

So without shorts, how can longs enjoy themselves so much?

I hope the comments section can be a bit kinder; after all, the rise we’re seeing is contributed by us shorts.

If you’re enjoying the profits from going long, you should be cheering and encouraging us shorts,

rather than constantly saying things that urge shorts to turn into longs.

Similarly, if the market falls, I won’t urge longs to go short.

Changing someone’s mindset is one of the hardest things in this world.

One must have conviction to achieve something.

Looking back at these 8 to 9 months of shorting, it seems the only time I got hit was in November for the entire month.

It hasn’t changed my life or my thoughts.

The way to greatness is simplicity, just like micro-strategy: ignore price, ignore any news, mindlessly buy and buy, and in the end, it leads to success, becoming a crucial player in the crypto space.

Every profession has its specialty; just like us players in contracts, we create market volatility through quick and immediate satisfaction.

The technique doesn’t care about direction; the method is the most important, as well as how much one wants to gain.

It’s not about Zhang San waking up early today to make hundreds of times gains,

or Li Si achieving significant profits tomorrow because he went all in.

Trading is built on years of accumulated experience, allowing one’s patterns and methods to become more adept in seizing opportunities in this market.

From the moment a trade is initiated, there should be an expected value in mind; exceeding that expectation is an unexpected gain, and it shouldn’t be regarded as part of one’s skill.

Reconciliation, I tell myself, everyone has a dream of becoming wealthy; I haven’t had such dreams for many years, so I live each day fully.

To all the brothers in longs and shorts, have a great weekend!