The short-term impact of the tariff war on the financial market has already been digested by the market.

The next focus of the market remains on the issue of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. After June, there will be $6.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds maturing, and at that time, the U.S. will need to follow the old path of borrowing new to pay off old debts.

However, currently the interest rates in the U.S. are still too high. The low-interest Treasury bonds that were borrowed initially now need to be paid back with high-interest loans if rates do not decrease.

For example, four years ago, I borrowed 100,000 yuan from you, promising to pay you back 110,000 yuan after four years. Now I cannot pay it back, and in order to maintain my credit, I need to borrow money to pay back your principal and interest.

The problem now is that my borrowing cost is now 110,000 yuan needing to pay back 150,000 yuan, which means my original debt has increased from 100,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan. This is the fundamental reason behind a series of actions by the U.S. administration pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Therefore, we can see that the market is concerned that, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's tough stance, the probability of an interest rate cut in June is still not high, and U.S. Treasuries are facing the risk of collapse. Recently, a large amount of funds has flowed into gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets.

However, the market still has a consensus that U.S. Treasuries will not collapse. In the end, the Federal Reserve will definitely provide a backstop for U.S. Treasuries, whether it be through high interest rates or interest rate cuts remains uncertain.

Thus, we can see that the U.S. dollar index still has not broken through the 100 mark, as money has been converted into gold, Bitcoin, and other assets with safe-haven attributes.

Powell's statement should come during next month's interest rate decision. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June is very high. If rate cuts begin, the strength of the dollar will return, and at that time, gold and Bitcoin will face a decline.

Currently, Bitcoin is somewhat abstract. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, Bitcoin rises with U.S. stocks; if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, Bitcoin rises with gold. Is it really an eternal bull market?

This is how we understand and interpret it, but it does not affect the downward tendency of Bitcoin in the short term. As of this month, after a significant adjustment, the price is expected to enter a high-level consolidation range, where pin bar patterns are more likely to appear.

By the end of the month, it is expected that Bitcoin's fluctuation range will oscillate between 95k and 88k. Whether it will rise or fall will have to wait until next month to see.