R3PO

Against the backdrop of delayed rate cuts and geopolitical turmoil, almost all assets trembled in the first half of 2025. However, Bitcoin led the entire crypto world in a remarkable comeback, showcasing strong resilience and growth potential. The grand performance of the second half of the year is about to begin. What key forces are brewing in the market?

At the beginning of this year, external expectations were that the U.S. economy would take a sharp dive, but so far, it has shown a smooth downward trend, akin to a "soft landing." The job market has maintained a degree of resilience, with 139,000 new non-farm jobs added in May, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and a wage growth rate of 3.9% year-on-year, indicating that while the labor market has slowed slightly, it remains robust. At the same time, inflation data has come in below expectations, with June's core CPI rising 2.7% year-on-year, slightly down from the previous value, and has not yet clearly reflected the impact of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The market generally expects the Fed to start cutting rates in September rather than July.

On May 12, the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks exceeded expectations, and US stocks and cryptocurrencies rose under favorable policies and market expectations. However, the ruling of the US International Trade Court at the end of the month weakened the "legitimacy basis" of the tariff war, triggered policy games, and the reconstruction of global trade rules entered the "judicial-executive wrestling" stage. There are still concerns about the long-term impact of tariffs. Crypto assets are decentralized, cross-sovereign, and resistant to policy intervention, which are increasingly favored by investors.

The US government tasted the sweetness of economic data in May: the latest non-farm payrolls data for April increased by 177,000, better than expected, indicating that the labor market remains robust. The "tariff suspension period" agreement reached at the Sino-US trade talks in Geneva eased market concerns about the disruption of the global supply chain. Consumers' inflation expectations for imported goods (such as electronic products and daily necessities) declined, driving the recovery of retail consumption willingness, thus bringing a more impressive confidence index: data released by the Conference Board on the 27th showed that the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly soared to 98 in May, a sharp rebound of 12.3 points from 85.7 in April, the largest monthly increase in four years, showing the positive transmission of tariff easing to the consumer end.

At the beginning of April, Trump's reciprocal tariff policy triggered a global asset crash, but Trump later softened his stance, acknowledging that tariffs 'would be significantly reduced' and confirming that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell would continue to serve, alleviating concerns about turmoil in the Fed's leadership. After calming investors, a new wave of risk appetite emerged, with Bitcoin rising sharply.

From the data perspective, while macroeconomic hard indicators such as consumption and employment in the U.S. in April have not yet suffered substantial shocks, risks are clearly rising: in March, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs (expected 170,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, with data better than expected; however, on the other hand, the 'reciprocal tariff' policy implemented by the Trump administration in April saw the average tariff rate surge from 2.4% to 21.4%, causing the import goods price index to rise by 18.6% year-on-year. The pre-tariff buying spree for cars drove a 1.4% month-on-month surge in March retail sales, but the actual consumption momentum excluding automobiles only grew by 0.5%, down 0.15 percentage points from February.

In March, global markets were deeply mired in policy uncertainty, urgently seeking new anchor points. U.S. stocks accelerated their valuation reconstruction, and the crypto market was also subject to fluctuations. With the new tariff bomb dropped on April 2, the global trade order faces deep restructuring, compelling countries to urgently adjust their economic policies. The more it is at such a time, the more critical it is to patiently wait. Once the new order is gradually reshaped, market sentiment will also warm up accordingly.

Trump's tariff policy has undergone multiple adjustments in the past March, and on April 2, the Trump administration officially announced the implementation of a 'comprehensive reciprocal tariff' policy—levying a minimum 10% basic tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. and imposing additional tariffs on about 60 countries with significant trade deficits (e.g., 34% for China, 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia)—ushering in the most intense reshaping of the global trade order since World War II.

As the global carbon neutrality process collides with the wave of Web3 technology, a revolution that disrupts the traditional energy system is quietly growing on the blockchain. On the morning of April 6, the 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will host the themed forum 'Photosynthetic Chain Wave: The Ecological Symphony of DePIN' at Venue Two - Autumn. This industry event, co-organized by Arkreen and the Web3 Carnival organizers, may define the standard paradigm for the next generation of the energy internet. Arkreen is a public network of green energy assets built on distributed technology, driving transformation in the energy industry with trusted digitalization and blockchain at its core. As a practitioner of the DePIN model in the energy sector, Arkreen connects globally distributed energy devices through community and IoT technology, achieving digital mapping of energy assets and on-chain value circulation. Against the backdrop of volatile fossil energy prices and obstacles in the iteration of distributed grid technology, the themed forum 'Photosynthetic Chain Wave: The Ecological Symphony of DePIN' will anchor on 'green digital infrastructure,' gathering top developers, industry leaders, and regulatory pioneers from around the world to spark a storm of technology empowering the real economy in the Asian financial center.

In January and February 2025, as Trump 2.0's administration reaches its first month, on one hand, the curtain rises on Trump 2.0, with a surge of policy dividends. On the other hand, U.S. stocks, under the influence of DeepSeek, face a huge impact on the AI sector, triggering a series of financial avalanches. Especially in February, as three main forces—key economic data landing, regulatory framework adjustments, and accelerated technological iterations—intertwined, the crypto market continuously experienced turbulence, baptism, and reconstruction.

In February 2025, various changes occurred in the U.S. macroeconomic situation, with a series of key economic indicators declining. At the same time, since Trump took office, he has vigorously promoted policies to increase import tariffs. These two factors intertwined have had a profound impact on the U.S. and even the global economy, triggering turbulence in global markets.

The U.S. economy ran smoothly in December, with core economic data all within expectations, but the Federal Reserve's hawkish comments intensified short-term market volatility; in the macro greenhouse, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin both broke historical highs this month, bringing investors a year-end big bonus; looking to 2025, institutions are generally optimistic, believing that Bitcoin may break $200,000 in 2025.

The newly released economic data in December in the U.S. was basically in line with expectations: Non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, slightly better than market expectations (expected 220,000); November CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both meeting expectations. Subsequently, it was announced that the federal funds rate target range was lowered by 25 basis points to between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with expectations. However, after announcing the rate cut, the Federal Reserve added that the expected rate cut in 2025 may narrow to 50 basis points. This undoubtedly poured cold water on the market, as it means the number of rate cuts expected in 2025 has decreased from the previously expected 4 times to 2 times, which also led to market expectations that the Federal Reserve would not cut rates in January next year. Affected by the U.S. hawkish rate cut, both U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market saw significant declines that day.

In October, the Federal Reserve released its Beige Book, which revealed the current stable operation of the U.S. economy, dispelling traders' concerns about the macroeconomic situation; the U.S. election has become the main logic driving market trading. The earnings season for U.S. stocks is approaching, and tech stocks suffered a significant drop at the end of the month; the crypto market has become a safe haven amid the uncertainties of the election, with Bitcoin nearing its historical high, indicating that a new crypto bull market may have arrived.

For the U.S. economy, November is another month of mixed feelings: U.S. non-farm employment increased by 254,000 in September, exceeding expectations of 150,000, with a total upward revision of 72,000 jobs in August and July. The unemployment rate in September was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2%, while it was 4.2% in August. Average hourly wages in September grew by 4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, both exceeding expectations; Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 47.8 (expected 47.5), reaching a two-month high, and Markit services PMI preliminary value was 55.3 (expected 55), also a two-month high. The steady performance of economic data is accompanied by high inflation: U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in September, slightly slowing from the previous value of 2.5%, but exceeding the expected value of 2.3%; core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations and the previous value of 3.2%. This inflation data directly suppressed the debate on whether to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in November: almost everyone is betting on a 25 basis point cut in November, while a small fraction is betting on no cut, and calls for a 50 basis point cut have completely disappeared.

The Federal Reserve has initiated a 50 basis point rate cut as expected, officially starting the rate cut cycle, and global liquidity will enter a new easing phase; as a result, global stock markets have collectively risen, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones continue to reach historical highs, and the Asia-Pacific stock markets have performed impressively; the crypto market enjoys the benefits of the rate cut, with Bitcoin prices breaking through $66,000, indicating that a new round of rising trends may be brewing.

Before this month's FOMC meeting, the U.S. released the latest non-farm and inflation data: the latest non-farm employment number increased by 142,000, which was below expectations; the August CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, marking a decline for five consecutive months. At this juncture of interest rate cuts, the worse-than-expected non-farm data may actually be a positive, increasing market expectations for a rate cut.

Powell's latest speech indicates that the rate cut cycle is imminent, but the market is also concerned about problems in the U.S. macro economy. The interplay between trading rate cuts and trading recession logic has increased volatility in the global financial market; Nvidia's latest financial report was better than expected but could not prevent market disappointment and hesitation; the cryptocurrency market is strongly tied to macro trends, and it is advised to wait patiently, reduce operations, and pay attention to good opportunities for building positions in Ethereum in the second half of the year.

At the beginning of August, the U.S. released the latest non-farm payroll data for July: the non-farm employment population grew by only 114,000, significantly lower than the expected 175,000 and a sharp decline from the previous value of 206,000. As soon as the data was released, it immediately raised concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy, directly impacting the subsequent global asset crash over the next two days. However, amid the panic, it also provided investors with more ample expectations for rate cuts, hoping that global liquidity would enter a new expansion cycle.

The newly released economic data from the United States in July dispelled market concerns, and the market is currently betting on an astonishing 100% probability of a rate cut in September; U.S. stocks are switching styles as expected, with large-cap technology stocks breaking up and small-cap stocks and non-tech sectors ushering in spring; the crypto market was swept by emotions in July, but has now stabilized; Ethereum spot ETF was listed for trading, and Grayscale's selling pressure temporarily put pressure on prices, but the selling speed was fast and the pressure may not last too long.

On July 25, the United States announced that its GDP in the second quarter of 2024 grew by 2.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.0% (1.4% in the first quarter). The PCE price index grew by 2.6% in the second quarter, lower than the 3.4% in the first quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices and is the most important inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, grew by 2.9%, also lower than the previous value of 3.7%. However, the market does not seem to buy this data. On the day the data was released, the U.S. stock market was shaken, from a high opening to a sharp drop, and then pulled up and fell again. The bulls and bears fought fiercely throughout the day, and the market could not reach a consensus.

Note: R3PO is a partner media of Bitcoin 2024 Nashville. This article is a promotional article of R3PO, and the source material is official media/online news.
Bitcoin 2024 Nashville, the world’s most anticipated Bitcoin event, will take place in Nashville, Tennessee, from July 25 to 27 (EST). The three-day event is expected to bring together Bitcoin enthusiasts, financial industry leaders, technology innovators, and cutting-edge artists from around the world to discuss and celebrate the future of Bitcoin.
This year's conference will invite well-known people to have in-depth discussions, and will include a variety of workshops and technical sessions, such as the "Proof of Workshop" will show the latest developments in BTC technology. The much-anticipated "Bitcoin Art Gallery" will return again, showcasing the world's top Bitcoin art works, perfectly combining technology and creativity.

The divergence between the US CPI and non-farm data in June has caused the market to be unable to reach a consensus on the number of interest rate cuts, and can only "wait and see". Nvidia's market value once ranked first in the world, becoming the pride of the AI ​​era. However, the US stock market is severely divided, the price-earnings ratio is high, and the bubble has already appeared. The crypto market fell for no reason this month. The selling of old OGs and miners may be the direct cause of the decline, and it also provides new opportunities for subsequent investment.

The latest FOMC meeting in the United States in June came to an end. The meeting decided to maintain the federal funds rate between 5.25% and 5.50%, which was in line with market expectations. However, the overall attitude of this FOMC meeting was dovish, a change from the previous hawkish style. In the wording of the meeting, Powell believed that the current inflation has "made moderate progress" from the 2% target. Indeed, the latest CPI data in May showed that the US CPI in May increased by 3.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous value and the expected value of 3.4%; the core CPI in May, excluding food and energy costs, increased by 3.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.5% and the previous value of 3.6%, the lowest level in more than three years.

preface
The US FOMC meeting in May kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. US inflation is temporarily stable, and interest rate cuts still need to wait, but the reduction of bank capital ratio policy is a precursor to interest rate cuts. Nvidia's performance continues to exceed market expectations, leading US stocks to new highs. The AI ​​narrative is still there, but the arrival of the interest rate cut cycle may change the market style. The crypto market is full of positive news. The SEC has passed the listing standards for Ethereum spot ETFs. It is only a matter of time before related products of asset management institutions are listed. The FIT21 Act regulates the crypto industry and may become a beacon for the future development of the industry.

1. The Fed is still waiting to see the conditions for a rate cut, but the global rate cut cycle may have begun

Introduction: This month, U.S. inflation intensified, but GDP fell short of expectations, triggering market concerns about the "stagflation" of the U.S. economy; under such concerns, coupled with the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the capital market has experienced a correction this month. U.S. and Japanese stocks have experienced a significant correction, while the situation in Europe is relatively good, indicating that global investors are not worried about the so-called global economic systemic risks; although the crypto market has experienced fluctuations, and the black swan event caused Bitcoin to plunge below $60,000, the crypto market ushered in a historic moment on April 29: the Hong Kong crypto asset ETF was approved, indicating that incremental funds are still continuing to enter and the market outlook is positive.

This month, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, and raised future GDP expectations and lowered inflation expectations; Japan's interest rate hike attracted world attention, but the Fed's interest rate cut cycle may not worry about liquidity issues; European investors are also betting on interest rate cuts; the crypto market It is temporarily stuck in a correction, but supply-side analysis shows that there may be sufficient momentum for subsequent increases.



On March 20, U.S. time, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision conference was held as scheduled, announcing that the federal funds rate target range would remain unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%. Although February's CPI data exceeded market expectations (3.2%, expected 3.1%), the Federal Reserve still chose to "stand still."

The U.S. economy is off to a good start in 2024. Although the rise in CPI may lead to a delay in interest rate cuts, the openness reflected in the beautiful economic data in the United States has brought sufficient confidence to the market (especially consumers). U.S. stocks continued to reach new highs in January, and technology stocks (AI) regained market focus, but Tesla suffered its first decline in gross profit in many years; Asia-Pacific stock markets performed brilliantly, while European stock markets fluctuated steadily. The Bitcoin ETF passed as scheduled, but the crypto market was temporarily under pressure due to Grayscale selling pressure. However, with the reduction of selling pressure, the market is now stabilizing with some rebound.

The market in December was "surprisingly good", and both the stock market and the currency circle were performing a cheerful money-making effect. The market is relatively optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the U.S. economy has cooled significantly, and South Korea's export indicators allude to global economic recovery; the stock markets of the United States, India, Japan, France, and Germany have successively hit record highs; the price of Bitcoin has exceeded $44,000, and the United States and Hong Kong’s virtual asset ETFs are “on the horizon” and everything seems to be moving in a brighter direction.

In the early morning of December 14th, Beijing time, according to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to slow down the pace of interest rate increases in December and continue to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. between. As soon as the news came out, the market cheered, with all three major U.S. stock indexes rising sharply.

In October, the three major U.S. stock indexes, Europe, Asia-Pacific and other major global securities markets generally showed fluctuations and adjustments. Among them, after experiencing a decline in the index in early October, the world's major stock indexes rebounded rapidly. After reaching a peak around October 16, the index fell again. In the meantime, due to the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, domestic A-shares were not traded in the first half of this month. After trading sideways for a period of time in the middle of the month, the three major A-share indexes showed a unidirectional downward trend.
In terms of cryptocurrency, after a period of low sideways trading, cryptocurrency prices have risen rapidly since mid-October. In particular, expectations for the issuance of Bitcoin spot ETFs are heating up, U.S. debt is "bearing steep", and the fourth halving is approaching. The price of Bitcoin once rose above US$35,000 for the first time since 2022. Some cryptocurrency industry analysts believe that a new round of cryptocurrency bull market has begun to brew, and the peak price of Bitcoin is expected to exceed US$138,000 in the next few years.

Judging from the economic data released by the United States in August, the U.S. economy—this speeding locomotive—finally shows some signs of slowing down.

The U.S. CPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year in July, ending the previous 12 consecutive months of decline. It is expected to be 3.3%, and the previous value was 3.0%. The U.S. core CPI in July increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the estimate was 4.8%, and the previous value was 4.8%. . CPI has increased, but is still lower than market expectations, and the Fed's interest rate hike has achieved significant results.

From an employment perspective, the U.S. labor market has also shown a certain degree of slowdown. The number of new jobs in the U.S. non-agricultural sector in July was 187,000, lower than market expectations. In terms of hourly wages, the average hourly wage in the second quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year, which was slightly slower than the 4.8% increase in the previous quarter. The latest salary tracking data from job site Indeed shows that salaries advertised on the site are increasing at an annual rate of 4.7%, down from 5.8% in April and 8% in July last year. The labor market has always been an important reference for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, because wages and prices tend to rise simultaneously. The current reduction in wage expectations has undoubtedly put the labor market on the Fed's side.