大白熊日记
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Do you still remember the ups and downs along the way?
In this cryptocurrency world full of unknowns and variables, my journey has been a road that is both grueling and full of hope. Since 2015, I have entered this emerging field with an unknown vision of digital currency. At that time, I was full of youthful energy and unlimited dreams for the future, thinking that I could make a difference in this brand new market. I had been comfortable in the more traditional stock index futures and ETF options markets, so I felt confident that I could easily navigate this freer, more active market. However, reality soon hit me hard. In the first few months, I experienced liquidation almost every month. Each time was a heavy blow, which kept me awake at night and almost lost all my confidence and hope. I started to question myself, am I really suitable for this market? Is it really possible to find a place in this volatile field? But in the most confusing and difficult moments, I told myself that I couldn’t just give up. Because although the past cannot be undone, the future is still in my hands. So, I began to slowly adjust my strategy, learning how to find lessons in losses and stay humble in victories. I gradually learned to control risks and no longer blindly pursue dreams that seemed to make me rich overnight. I began to seriously study market dynamics, analyze various trading tools and strategies, and strive to improve my skills and knowledge. Over time, I began to find my niche in this volatile market. I am no longer the eager newbie, but have become more mature and stable. I learned to stay calm in trading and not be affected by short-term fluctuations in the market. I began to focus on building a solid trading system that helped me maintain a clear mind and firm determination in the complex and ever-changing market. I also began to realize that trading is not only a game of technology and strategy, but also a psychological and emotional battle. Every fluctuation in the market is a test of my mentality. I learned how to manage my emotions, how to stay calm in the face of losses, and stay humble in the face of gains. I started paying more attention to mental health and life balance because I know that only by being mentally strong can you survive in this challenging market for the long term. Now I am a full-time trader. Although the market is still full of uncertainty, I have learned how to find opportunities in changes and seek growth in risks. I know that this road will never be smooth, but I also believe that as long as I stay determined and patient, I will be able to realize my dreams one day. On this journey, I also hope to be able to move forward with more like-minded friends. Because I know that no matter whether it is good times or bad times, you should not face it alone. Let's share experiences together, face challenges together, and celebrate every small victory together. Because in the end, we are all fighting for the same goal - to find our own piece of sky in this volatile market. Therefore, to all my friends who are struggling in the currency circle, I want to say: Don’t be afraid of failure and don’t give up easily. Every fall is the strength to stand up next time, and every failure is the only way to succeed. As long as you persist, one day you will find that all the hardships and challenges are worth it. Let's move forward together and create our own legends in this world full of possibilities.
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The previous post provided an in-depth analysis of why Ethereum is rising while its smaller counterparts are not; in this issue, I continue from the end of the last issue to organize a complete list of Ethereum ecosystem tokens for everyone. (Recommended to bookmark)
1. L2 Track (Ethereum Scaling Chains)
Ethereum is too expensive and slow, which has led to a bunch of Layer 2 projects, forming the core of the "Ethereum ecosystem."
ARB; The most popular OP Rollup scaling chain, exploding ecosystem with high TVL
OP; Used by Coinbase and Worldcoin, with strong fundamentals
Base; No token; L2 supported by Coinbase, no token, but the ecosystem is very active, focus on potential airdrop
STRK; ZK series L2, leading technology, but token price performance is average
ZK; ZK Rollup project, just launched its token, causing controversy, high popularity
Linea; No token; L2 supported by ConsenSys, strong expectations for recent token launch
Scroll: No token; good compatibility, ZK Rollup, potential airdrop hotspot
2. Restaking Track
Restaking is the secondary utilization of ETH, a derivative track after the upgrade of Ethereum's PoS mechanism.
EIGEN; (Not fully circulated yet) Leader in Restaking, reusing ETH security, huge potential
ETHFI; Closely linked to EigenLayer, supports LRT
REZ; A rising star in the LRT track, rapidly increasing TVL
KELP; (Not launched) Popular candidate for Restaking, focus on airdrop
Infrastructure (DeFi / NFT / Stablecoins) Projects
3. "Infrastructure tokens" on Ethereum, many of which exploded in the last bull market.
MKR; DAI is the earliest DeFi stablecoin
AAVE; Leading lending protocol
UNI; The ancestor of DEX, the strongest DEX in the ETH ecosystem
BLUR; Competing fiercely with Opensea
LDO; Supports stETH, the largest staking pool for ETH
4. Derivatives and Liquidity Protocols
PENDLE; Extremely high locking rate, based on ETH DeFi interest rates
LBR; A stablecoin system with an innovative mechanism
CRV; An established project, currently sluggish but the underlying technology is still important
FXS; Modular design, involving ETH liquidity and algorithmic coins
5. Eco-Derivative Assets and Narrative Coins
ENS; Ethereum's "DNS" system
GTC; Supports the Ethereum open-source ecosystem
GNO; An established tech team
RPL; Decentralized staking platform
IMX; Focused on gaming NFTs in ZK L2
1. L2 Track (Ethereum Scaling Chains)
Ethereum is too expensive and slow, which has led to a bunch of Layer 2 projects, forming the core of the "Ethereum ecosystem."
ARB; The most popular OP Rollup scaling chain, exploding ecosystem with high TVL
OP; Used by Coinbase and Worldcoin, with strong fundamentals
Base; No token; L2 supported by Coinbase, no token, but the ecosystem is very active, focus on potential airdrop
STRK; ZK series L2, leading technology, but token price performance is average
ZK; ZK Rollup project, just launched its token, causing controversy, high popularity
Linea; No token; L2 supported by ConsenSys, strong expectations for recent token launch
Scroll: No token; good compatibility, ZK Rollup, potential airdrop hotspot
2. Restaking Track
Restaking is the secondary utilization of ETH, a derivative track after the upgrade of Ethereum's PoS mechanism.
EIGEN; (Not fully circulated yet) Leader in Restaking, reusing ETH security, huge potential
ETHFI; Closely linked to EigenLayer, supports LRT
REZ; A rising star in the LRT track, rapidly increasing TVL
KELP; (Not launched) Popular candidate for Restaking, focus on airdrop
Infrastructure (DeFi / NFT / Stablecoins) Projects
3. "Infrastructure tokens" on Ethereum, many of which exploded in the last bull market.
MKR; DAI is the earliest DeFi stablecoin
AAVE; Leading lending protocol
UNI; The ancestor of DEX, the strongest DEX in the ETH ecosystem
BLUR; Competing fiercely with Opensea
LDO; Supports stETH, the largest staking pool for ETH
4. Derivatives and Liquidity Protocols
PENDLE; Extremely high locking rate, based on ETH DeFi interest rates
LBR; A stablecoin system with an innovative mechanism
CRV; An established project, currently sluggish but the underlying technology is still important
FXS; Modular design, involving ETH liquidity and algorithmic coins
5. Eco-Derivative Assets and Narrative Coins
ENS; Ethereum's "DNS" system
GTC; Supports the Ethereum open-source ecosystem
GNO; An established tech team
RPL; Decentralized staking platform
IMX; Focused on gaming NFTs in ZK L2
See original
From the perspective of the Air Force, let's objectively analyze the reasons why the vast majority of people are shorting ETH in this round of market.
1. Bear market inertia thinking,
1. The intuition that 'after a big rise, it should fall'
Many have been educated by the bear market: as long as the rise is too sharp, it is 'distribution'.
ETH rose from 2500 to 2700 to 3000, increasing by 10% in one day and having consecutive green days, naturally thinking it will crash.
Thus, they short at every rise and add to shorts at every fall, ultimately suffering huge losses.
2. The illusion of 'mean reversion'
ETH's long-term range is between 2100 and 2700; after breaking through, many believe it is 'overheated'.
But the reality is: the mean in a new bull market will inherently rise; using old thinking to judge the new market is bound to be wrong.
2. The main force deliberately pushes up the 'bear concentrated area'
1. Lure shorts → explode shorts → push up, is the rhythm that the main force loves the most.
The main force will bluntly push at key resistance levels (like 2500, 2700, 3000), making a large number of retail investors think it is 'topping' and entering short positions.
Once a large number of short positions are accumulated, they will use spot + contracts to break through the bear defense line, causing a short-term explosive increase.
For example,
On the day ETH broke 3000, Binance saw over 100 million USD in liquidations for short positions within 24 hours.
3. Misjudging policy rhythm and misunderstanding the impact of ETF
1. Many people underestimate the revaluation of ETH by ETF
After the BTC ETF was approved, it experienced a doubling market;
Many people think 'no institutions will buy ETH', ignoring its value as the second-largest crypto asset globally and the underlying of DeFi.
2. Not understanding the rule that 'certainty = price explosion point'
Thinking 'the positive news landing is negative', but for institutions, the positive news landing is actually the entry point.
Thinking it is 'distribution', but in reality, it is the main force building positions.
In summary:
The reason some people are shorting Ethereum during its rise is that the vast majority are lagging in cognition, making mistakes in timing, and greedily betting against the trend.
They are not unintelligent, but rather unaware—
The current ETH is not the old ETH; it has gradually entered the 'institutional era' and logically has become the 'new BTC'.
1. Bear market inertia thinking,
1. The intuition that 'after a big rise, it should fall'
Many have been educated by the bear market: as long as the rise is too sharp, it is 'distribution'.
ETH rose from 2500 to 2700 to 3000, increasing by 10% in one day and having consecutive green days, naturally thinking it will crash.
Thus, they short at every rise and add to shorts at every fall, ultimately suffering huge losses.
2. The illusion of 'mean reversion'
ETH's long-term range is between 2100 and 2700; after breaking through, many believe it is 'overheated'.
But the reality is: the mean in a new bull market will inherently rise; using old thinking to judge the new market is bound to be wrong.
2. The main force deliberately pushes up the 'bear concentrated area'
1. Lure shorts → explode shorts → push up, is the rhythm that the main force loves the most.
The main force will bluntly push at key resistance levels (like 2500, 2700, 3000), making a large number of retail investors think it is 'topping' and entering short positions.
Once a large number of short positions are accumulated, they will use spot + contracts to break through the bear defense line, causing a short-term explosive increase.
For example,
On the day ETH broke 3000, Binance saw over 100 million USD in liquidations for short positions within 24 hours.
3. Misjudging policy rhythm and misunderstanding the impact of ETF
1. Many people underestimate the revaluation of ETH by ETF
After the BTC ETF was approved, it experienced a doubling market;
Many people think 'no institutions will buy ETH', ignoring its value as the second-largest crypto asset globally and the underlying of DeFi.
2. Not understanding the rule that 'certainty = price explosion point'
Thinking 'the positive news landing is negative', but for institutions, the positive news landing is actually the entry point.
Thinking it is 'distribution', but in reality, it is the main force building positions.
In summary:
The reason some people are shorting Ethereum during its rise is that the vast majority are lagging in cognition, making mistakes in timing, and greedily betting against the trend.
They are not unintelligent, but rather unaware—
The current ETH is not the old ETH; it has gradually entered the 'institutional era' and logically has become the 'new BTC'.
See original
Currently, the entire cryptocurrency market is experiencing a very critical phenomenon that many veterans feel deeply: Ethereum is surging strongly, while altcoins are almost stagnant or even declining!
This phenomenon actually reflects the fundamental disconnection of the institutional bull market. Let's analyze the reasons in detail, breaking it down into several dimensions for clarity.
1. Funds only choose 'high certainty' targets; ETH is currently the ceiling for altcoins.
The rise of ETH is because:
1. ETH is about to launch an ETF, the narrative is real, expectations are clear, and certainty is extremely high;
2. Institutions recognize ETH as 'Bitcoin among altcoins', the only Layer 1 that can be integrated into the traditional financial system;
3. ETH occupies a foundational position in DeFi, NFT, L2, Restaking, AI, and other tracks, being the underlying weighted coin of the entire ecosystem.
In simple terms, ETH is the 'safe and sexy' altcoin, while other altcoins are either unattractive or too risky in comparison.
2. Market sentiment is still in the 'half-believing, half-doubting' stage, with no large-scale capital entering altcoins.
The market is currently in the early to mid-stage of a bull market, characterized by:
Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) steadily rising;
Altcoins slightly rising or consolidating;
When altcoins rise, they are quickly sold off, indicating a lack of buying capital;
Retail investors are hesitant, and institutions have not fully engaged yet.
The underlying reason is that retail investors lack confidence, and institutions are cautious. Therefore, funds are concentrated around ETH and other 'quasi-mainstream assets', leaving altcoins without liquidity.
3. Current BTC and ETH are 'capping capital', and altcoins can only wait for the 'spillover effect'.
Just like in the early stages of previous bull markets:
Money enters from fiat, first going into BTC;
Then flows from BTC to ETH;
Only then does the capital from ETH start to spread to smaller coins.
Currently, this 'liquidity' has just reached ETH and has not yet overflowed to altcoins.
Thus, even if altcoins have logic, they cannot move without capital to drive them.
Finally, I want to say that ETH is the focal point of the 'value low + high expectation' narrative. Currently, altcoins have no story, no money, and no popularity; it is inevitable that they cannot rise. But remember: once ETH stabilizes between $4000 and $5000, the ecosystem coins on ETH, L2, re-staking, AI tracks, etc., will begin to rotate!
Therefore: the strategy now is to hold a main position in ETH and a light position in potential Altcoins;
Only when ETH rises to the range where the main force believes 'expectations have been fulfilled' (such as after the ETF actually goes live), will it rotate to altcoins; that will be the real altcoin season!
This phenomenon actually reflects the fundamental disconnection of the institutional bull market. Let's analyze the reasons in detail, breaking it down into several dimensions for clarity.
1. Funds only choose 'high certainty' targets; ETH is currently the ceiling for altcoins.
The rise of ETH is because:
1. ETH is about to launch an ETF, the narrative is real, expectations are clear, and certainty is extremely high;
2. Institutions recognize ETH as 'Bitcoin among altcoins', the only Layer 1 that can be integrated into the traditional financial system;
3. ETH occupies a foundational position in DeFi, NFT, L2, Restaking, AI, and other tracks, being the underlying weighted coin of the entire ecosystem.
In simple terms, ETH is the 'safe and sexy' altcoin, while other altcoins are either unattractive or too risky in comparison.
2. Market sentiment is still in the 'half-believing, half-doubting' stage, with no large-scale capital entering altcoins.
The market is currently in the early to mid-stage of a bull market, characterized by:
Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) steadily rising;
Altcoins slightly rising or consolidating;
When altcoins rise, they are quickly sold off, indicating a lack of buying capital;
Retail investors are hesitant, and institutions have not fully engaged yet.
The underlying reason is that retail investors lack confidence, and institutions are cautious. Therefore, funds are concentrated around ETH and other 'quasi-mainstream assets', leaving altcoins without liquidity.
3. Current BTC and ETH are 'capping capital', and altcoins can only wait for the 'spillover effect'.
Just like in the early stages of previous bull markets:
Money enters from fiat, first going into BTC;
Then flows from BTC to ETH;
Only then does the capital from ETH start to spread to smaller coins.
Currently, this 'liquidity' has just reached ETH and has not yet overflowed to altcoins.
Thus, even if altcoins have logic, they cannot move without capital to drive them.
Finally, I want to say that ETH is the focal point of the 'value low + high expectation' narrative. Currently, altcoins have no story, no money, and no popularity; it is inevitable that they cannot rise. But remember: once ETH stabilizes between $4000 and $5000, the ecosystem coins on ETH, L2, re-staking, AI tracks, etc., will begin to rotate!
Therefore: the strategy now is to hold a main position in ETH and a light position in potential Altcoins;
Only when ETH rises to the range where the main force believes 'expectations have been fulfilled' (such as after the ETF actually goes live), will it rotate to altcoins; that will be the real altcoin season!
See original
At this stage, it is neither the time of 'blindly buying and earning' like in 2021, nor the 'blindly buying and losing' phase of the 2018 bear market, but rather: a phase where 'smart money trades hot spots, and retail investors chase high prices and get cut.'
The biggest risk at this moment is not buying the wrong coin, nor buying too slowly, but rather:
You haven't figured out where the money is flowing, and randomly buying will lead to being 'harvested' by the 'market illusion.'
For example:
If the hot spot is AI and you buy DeFi, it's like getting on the wrong bus;
If the hot spot is in the Ethereum ecosystem and you buy an obscure Layer 1, no one will take over;
If you rush in during market fluctuations, you might experience a violent correction of 10-30% before you even make a profit.
Suggestions:
1. Wait until there is a 'sector hot spot' before taking action.
2. Participate in hot spots using a 'small funds testing + incremental investment' approach.
3. Don't touch 'obscure coins' if you don't understand them.
4. If there are no hot spots, it’s better to rest than to operate blindly.
The biggest risk at this moment is not buying the wrong coin, nor buying too slowly, but rather:
You haven't figured out where the money is flowing, and randomly buying will lead to being 'harvested' by the 'market illusion.'
For example:
If the hot spot is AI and you buy DeFi, it's like getting on the wrong bus;
If the hot spot is in the Ethereum ecosystem and you buy an obscure Layer 1, no one will take over;
If you rush in during market fluctuations, you might experience a violent correction of 10-30% before you even make a profit.
Suggestions:
1. Wait until there is a 'sector hot spot' before taking action.
2. Participate in hot spots using a 'small funds testing + incremental investment' approach.
3. Don't touch 'obscure coins' if you don't understand them.
4. If there are no hot spots, it’s better to rest than to operate blindly.
See original
Still don't know the reason for BONK's surge? Let me tell you the answer in one minute!
1. Someone has their back!
Recently, a big institution (like Grayscale) has added BONK to its "watchlist", which means: "I am considering whether to invest in it."
Upon hearing this, the market exploded:
"The institutional daddy is coming in!"
Everyone hurriedly bought in, anticipating that once an ETF is really issued or major funds buy in, it would take off.
2. The contract market is a chaotic mess!
So many people are buying BONK in the contract market, to what extent?
👉 Contract funding has reached an all-time high!
What does this indicate?
"Everyone is betting that it will rise!"
Plenty of money + many people + high emotions, and the coin price naturally surges upwards.
3. The community is vigorously burning coins!
The BONK community has burned a large number of tokens through voting.
What is this like? It's like a supermarket taking half of its products off the shelves; with fewer items, they become more valuable!
Burning coins = reducing the coins in the market → less selling pressure → the coin price is easier to rise!
4. Solana has also been doing well lately, and BONK is riding the wave.
BONK is the "Dogecoin" on the Solana chain,
With the Solana ecosystem being active recently, Meme coins like BONK are also taking off.
Like a fish, taking advantage of the big waves, jumping higher than anyone else!
5. The technical pattern is also beautiful.
BONK had been consolidating for a while,
When it broke through the resistance level, it was like a spring that had been compressed for a long time suddenly popping up, rising particularly sharply!
In summary:
This surge in BONK is because someone shouted "the institutions are coming,"
Then the entire market began to stir,
Combined with community coin burning, a thriving Solana ecosystem, and expectations of liquidations in the contract market…
After a series of operations, it just "surged" skyward!
1. Someone has their back!
Recently, a big institution (like Grayscale) has added BONK to its "watchlist", which means: "I am considering whether to invest in it."
Upon hearing this, the market exploded:
"The institutional daddy is coming in!"
Everyone hurriedly bought in, anticipating that once an ETF is really issued or major funds buy in, it would take off.
2. The contract market is a chaotic mess!
So many people are buying BONK in the contract market, to what extent?
👉 Contract funding has reached an all-time high!
What does this indicate?
"Everyone is betting that it will rise!"
Plenty of money + many people + high emotions, and the coin price naturally surges upwards.
3. The community is vigorously burning coins!
The BONK community has burned a large number of tokens through voting.
What is this like? It's like a supermarket taking half of its products off the shelves; with fewer items, they become more valuable!
Burning coins = reducing the coins in the market → less selling pressure → the coin price is easier to rise!
4. Solana has also been doing well lately, and BONK is riding the wave.
BONK is the "Dogecoin" on the Solana chain,
With the Solana ecosystem being active recently, Meme coins like BONK are also taking off.
Like a fish, taking advantage of the big waves, jumping higher than anyone else!
5. The technical pattern is also beautiful.
BONK had been consolidating for a while,
When it broke through the resistance level, it was like a spring that had been compressed for a long time suddenly popping up, rising particularly sharply!
In summary:
This surge in BONK is because someone shouted "the institutions are coming,"
Then the entire market began to stir,
Combined with community coin burning, a thriving Solana ecosystem, and expectations of liquidations in the contract market…
After a series of operations, it just "surged" skyward!
See original
Ethereum leads the way, how long until the altcoin season?
Let's start with the conclusion:
The altcoin season is likely already on its way, but still in the 'warming up phase', and a full breakout is expected in the next 1 to 2 months (late July to early September), but it depends on the coordination of several key factors.
Why do I make this judgment?
1. Altcoin bottoms are rising, and trading volume is gently expanding
Many coins are showing a pattern of 'slow rise with reduced volume', indicating that funds are quietly positioning themselves. This is not retail investors playing around; it's institutions or large holders accumulating.
2. Bitcoin market cap dominance is starting to weaken
When Bitcoin market cap dominance (BTC.D) peaks and then retreats, it's time for altcoins to take the stage. If it cannot break above 60%, there will be a signal for funds to flow into altcoins.
3. Narrative preparations are ample, with frequent hotspots
AI coins, RWA, gaming chains, Sol ecosystem, Base chain, Meme coins are all dancing in turn, indicating that the market is not lacking in stories; what it lacks is an emotional trigger point.
As long as BTC does not plummet or trades sideways for a while, it will give altcoins enough space. However, if BTC surges or crashes, altcoins will be drained or crushed.
Currently, the market is still a bit cold; people have not truly gone crazy. We will only see the main upward trend when emotions heat up, and exchange traffic explodes.
For example, if the ETH spot ETF is truly launched, or if the Federal Reserve clearly shifts to rate cuts, it will accelerate capital inflow.
In summary:
The altcoin season is like a summer thunderstorm; it gets hot beforehand, with dark clouds looming overhead, but when it will rain depends on the weather and the wind.
Don't rush; what needs to come is on the way. Whether you can benefit from the torrential rain depends on whether you set your buckets out early.
Let's start with the conclusion:
The altcoin season is likely already on its way, but still in the 'warming up phase', and a full breakout is expected in the next 1 to 2 months (late July to early September), but it depends on the coordination of several key factors.
Why do I make this judgment?
1. Altcoin bottoms are rising, and trading volume is gently expanding
Many coins are showing a pattern of 'slow rise with reduced volume', indicating that funds are quietly positioning themselves. This is not retail investors playing around; it's institutions or large holders accumulating.
2. Bitcoin market cap dominance is starting to weaken
When Bitcoin market cap dominance (BTC.D) peaks and then retreats, it's time for altcoins to take the stage. If it cannot break above 60%, there will be a signal for funds to flow into altcoins.
3. Narrative preparations are ample, with frequent hotspots
AI coins, RWA, gaming chains, Sol ecosystem, Base chain, Meme coins are all dancing in turn, indicating that the market is not lacking in stories; what it lacks is an emotional trigger point.
As long as BTC does not plummet or trades sideways for a while, it will give altcoins enough space. However, if BTC surges or crashes, altcoins will be drained or crushed.
Currently, the market is still a bit cold; people have not truly gone crazy. We will only see the main upward trend when emotions heat up, and exchange traffic explodes.
For example, if the ETH spot ETF is truly launched, or if the Federal Reserve clearly shifts to rate cuts, it will accelerate capital inflow.
In summary:
The altcoin season is like a summer thunderstorm; it gets hot beforehand, with dark clouds looming overhead, but when it will rain depends on the weather and the wind.
Don't rush; what needs to come is on the way. Whether you can benefit from the torrential rain depends on whether you set your buckets out early.
See original
Based on data from the last two weeks, I have summarized the most likely hot sectors for short to medium-term outbreaks as follows:
1️⃣: Solana Ecosystem
Hot Logic;
User activity, low transaction fees, meme proliferation, DEX explosion
Tokens;
BONK, WIF, JUP, PYTH
2️⃣: Zk Track
Hot Logic;
Multi-chain racing, zkSync airdrop promotes continuous narrative
Tokens; ZK, MANTA, zk ecosystem tokens
3️⃣: RWA (Real World Assets on Chain)
Hot Logic; Combined with US Treasuries and USDC, funds are gradually focusing
Tokens; ONDO, TOKENFI, MANTRA
4️⃣: DePIN + AI Track
Hot Logic: Strong narrative, the logic of on-chain infrastructure is being accepted
Tokens; AKT, FET, NUM
5️⃣: L2 + Modular
Hot Logic; Celestia/Layer 2 Rollup projects gaining traction
Tokens; TIA, AEVO, ARB
1️⃣: Solana Ecosystem
Hot Logic;
User activity, low transaction fees, meme proliferation, DEX explosion
Tokens;
BONK, WIF, JUP, PYTH
2️⃣: Zk Track
Hot Logic;
Multi-chain racing, zkSync airdrop promotes continuous narrative
Tokens; ZK, MANTA, zk ecosystem tokens
3️⃣: RWA (Real World Assets on Chain)
Hot Logic; Combined with US Treasuries and USDC, funds are gradually focusing
Tokens; ONDO, TOKENFI, MANTRA
4️⃣: DePIN + AI Track
Hot Logic: Strong narrative, the logic of on-chain infrastructure is being accepted
Tokens; AKT, FET, NUM
5️⃣: L2 + Modular
Hot Logic; Celestia/Layer 2 Rollup projects gaining traction
Tokens; TIA, AEVO, ARB
See original
The bull market is here, how to judge the real hot sectors? Where is capital flowing?
Having been in the crypto space for 8 years, there is one thing I always insist on:
Don't talk about heat; look at 'capital and narrative' to decide positions.
This wave of the bull market has already started, with BTC and ETH leading the surge, various chains, L2, meme, RWA... all sorts of sectors are being speculated in rotation. But the hardest part is not 'selecting coins', but selecting sectors and timing.
— Where is the main capital going? The narrative is appealing and has real traffic, that is the direction to bet on.
In this article, I will explain how to accurately judge the main flow direction and real hot sectors in a bull market, so you won't be confused by noise.
1. The essence of a bull market is the resonance of 'narrative + capital'. A bull market does not mean 'all coins rise'.
Don't talk about heat; look at 'capital and narrative' to decide positions.
This wave of the bull market has already started, with BTC and ETH leading the surge, various chains, L2, meme, RWA... all sorts of sectors are being speculated in rotation. But the hardest part is not 'selecting coins', but selecting sectors and timing.
— Where is the main capital going? The narrative is appealing and has real traffic, that is the direction to bet on.
In this article, I will explain how to accurately judge the main flow direction and real hot sectors in a bull market, so you won't be confused by noise.
1. The essence of a bull market is the resonance of 'narrative + capital'. A bull market does not mean 'all coins rise'.
See original
Shanzhai Sector Logic and Recommendations:
Recently, pay more attention to the cryptocurrencies in the AI sector. Trump announced a total investment plan of $70 billion in artificial intelligence and energy during a meeting yesterday, so the AI sector may gain traction soon.
Focus on the meme sector cryptocurrencies as well. After a pullback yesterday, the price of the second coin (Ethereum) has been rising again and continuously breaking new highs. Market sentiment is being driven by speculation, and the meme sector often leads every market rebound. Additionally, the meme sector emphasizes the principle of the strong getting stronger, where certain project teams that create buzz will continue to do so. A few examples include: FLOKI, BONK, WIF.
A key reminder: The current market rebound is merely a small cyclical rebound that coincides with the price recovery of the second coin. We should only engage in small cyclical segments; this is not the time for large-scale investments. Stay vigilant.
Recently, pay more attention to the cryptocurrencies in the AI sector. Trump announced a total investment plan of $70 billion in artificial intelligence and energy during a meeting yesterday, so the AI sector may gain traction soon.
Focus on the meme sector cryptocurrencies as well. After a pullback yesterday, the price of the second coin (Ethereum) has been rising again and continuously breaking new highs. Market sentiment is being driven by speculation, and the meme sector often leads every market rebound. Additionally, the meme sector emphasizes the principle of the strong getting stronger, where certain project teams that create buzz will continue to do so. A few examples include: FLOKI, BONK, WIF.
A key reminder: The current market rebound is merely a small cyclical rebound that coincides with the price recovery of the second coin. We should only engage in small cyclical segments; this is not the time for large-scale investments. Stay vigilant.
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An overview of popular coins in the crypto circle, future explosion periods, institutional costs.
An overview of popular coins in the crypto circle, future explosion periods, institutional costs.
BNB: Leading platform coin.
XRP: Coin managed by American consortium and banks; the explosion period is at the beginning and end of the bull market; XRP will explode first, then public chains, then use layer.
USDC: A stablecoin at the same level as USDT, used on-chain.
DOGE: Leading MEME coin.
ADA: Will pump every bull market.
TRX: Brother Sun's coin, always strong.
POL: Personally, I think it's a decent target.
LTC: Not as good as buying Bitcoin.
DOT: Personally, I don't touch it, too many trapped investors.
TON: Can't understand it, but the market cap space is about capped.
SUI: Saw $10 in this bull market.
WBTC: Bridged on-chain.
BNB: Leading platform coin.
XRP: Coin managed by American consortium and banks; the explosion period is at the beginning and end of the bull market; XRP will explode first, then public chains, then use layer.
USDC: A stablecoin at the same level as USDT, used on-chain.
DOGE: Leading MEME coin.
ADA: Will pump every bull market.
TRX: Brother Sun's coin, always strong.
POL: Personally, I think it's a decent target.
LTC: Not as good as buying Bitcoin.
DOT: Personally, I don't touch it, too many trapped investors.
TON: Can't understand it, but the market cap space is about capped.
SUI: Saw $10 in this bull market.
WBTC: Bridged on-chain.
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Talk about my views on Ethereum breaking 3000 points:
History does not repeat itself, but it is always remarkably similar. Every time Ethereum breaks through is not a celebration, but rather a bloody purge reminiscent of the chaos in altcoins. Looking back at previous times Ethereum broke 3000 points, the vast majority of retail investors ended up at a loss, with reasons like chasing highs in Ethereum/buying altcoins/betting on contracts being the main causes of losses during the previous breaks of 3000 points. Each time Ethereum stood above 3000 points, the market dynamics became even more severe.
In summary: Opportunities are given to those who are prepared, being overly optimistic will only lead you to face harsh realities. How to seize the moment is the most important thing; the market is not lacking in opportunities, but rather in patient people. Patiently wait for the upcoming market hotspots, and please keep your wallet closed until the hotspots arrive.
History does not repeat itself, but it is always remarkably similar. Every time Ethereum breaks through is not a celebration, but rather a bloody purge reminiscent of the chaos in altcoins. Looking back at previous times Ethereum broke 3000 points, the vast majority of retail investors ended up at a loss, with reasons like chasing highs in Ethereum/buying altcoins/betting on contracts being the main causes of losses during the previous breaks of 3000 points. Each time Ethereum stood above 3000 points, the market dynamics became even more severe.
In summary: Opportunities are given to those who are prepared, being overly optimistic will only lead you to face harsh realities. How to seize the moment is the most important thing; the market is not lacking in opportunities, but rather in patient people. Patiently wait for the upcoming market hotspots, and please keep your wallet closed until the hotspots arrive.
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