From the perspective of the Air Force, let's objectively analyze the reasons why the vast majority of people are shorting ETH in this round of market.

1. Bear market inertia thinking,

1. The intuition that 'after a big rise, it should fall'

Many have been educated by the bear market: as long as the rise is too sharp, it is 'distribution'.

ETH rose from 2500 to 2700 to 3000, increasing by 10% in one day and having consecutive green days, naturally thinking it will crash.

Thus, they short at every rise and add to shorts at every fall, ultimately suffering huge losses.

2. The illusion of 'mean reversion'

ETH's long-term range is between 2100 and 2700; after breaking through, many believe it is 'overheated'.

But the reality is: the mean in a new bull market will inherently rise; using old thinking to judge the new market is bound to be wrong.

2. The main force deliberately pushes up the 'bear concentrated area'

1. Lure shorts → explode shorts → push up, is the rhythm that the main force loves the most.

The main force will bluntly push at key resistance levels (like 2500, 2700, 3000), making a large number of retail investors think it is 'topping' and entering short positions.

Once a large number of short positions are accumulated, they will use spot + contracts to break through the bear defense line, causing a short-term explosive increase.

For example,

On the day ETH broke 3000, Binance saw over 100 million USD in liquidations for short positions within 24 hours.

3. Misjudging policy rhythm and misunderstanding the impact of ETF

1. Many people underestimate the revaluation of ETH by ETF

After the BTC ETF was approved, it experienced a doubling market;

Many people think 'no institutions will buy ETH', ignoring its value as the second-largest crypto asset globally and the underlying of DeFi.

2. Not understanding the rule that 'certainty = price explosion point'

Thinking 'the positive news landing is negative', but for institutions, the positive news landing is actually the entry point.

Thinking it is 'distribution', but in reality, it is the main force building positions.

In summary:

The reason some people are shorting Ethereum during its rise is that the vast majority are lagging in cognition, making mistakes in timing, and greedily betting against the trend.

They are not unintelligent, but rather unaware—

The current ETH is not the old ETH; it has gradually entered the 'institutional era' and logically has become the 'new BTC'.