Black Swan 39

Bitcoin ETFs over $3 billion 'bender', recording the first week of inflows in 5 weeks.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out how quickly Bitcoin ETFs are transitioning from “number 1 to number 5.”

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) Bitcoin in the United States have seen over $3 billion flow in this week, marking the first week of consecutive inflows in five weeks.
On April 25, Bitcoin number 11. According to Farside data, the ETF saw $380 million in inflows, raising the total for the week to about $3.06 billion over five consecutive days of inflows. The last time the Bitcoin ETF had a full week of inflow days was the week ending March 21.
The strong inflow week turned April into a positive month.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated in a post on April 24 on X that "ETFs are in a Bitcoin frenzy."
Balchunas said, “What’s really remarkable here is the speed of the move from number 1 to number 5,” while predicting that some of that moving flow could be due to “the base deal coming back into effect.”

In the context of ongoing financial and macroeconomic instability, spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a volatile April, with nine out of a total of 18 trading days so far showing outflows.
However, the strong inflow of capital over the past week has turned this month into a positive one, raising the total net inflow for April to about $2.26 billion.

Bitcoiner Jack Mallers swears he won't let Twenty One distract him from Strike
CEO of Strike, Jack Mallers, reiterated his commitment to Strike, stating he expects "net profits to reach 8-9 figures by 2025".

CEO of Strike Jack Mallers stated that his new role as CEO of Bitcoin fund management company Twenty One Capital will not distract him from leading Strike, while revealing that the platform processed over $6 billion in transaction volume in 2024.
"This is not a shift in my commitment; rather, it is an expansion of that commitment," Mallers said in a letter to Strike investors on April 25.
Every decision is based on whether it is "good for Bitcoin" or not
"If Bitcoin wins, humanity wins. Every business decision I make starts with a question: Is this good for Bitcoin? Twenty One exists because I believe it is good for Bitcoin and therefore, good for the world," Mallers said.
Mallers explained that Strike, a Bitcoin payment platform, and Twenty One Capital have different goals. He stated that Strike focuses on making "Bitcoin accessible globally", while Twenty One aims to increase "Bitcoin ownership per share (BPS) and pioneering financial instruments based on Bitcoin".
"These are separate companies, but they share the same philosophy: Bitcoin wins, we win," he said.

This event follows the announcement of the launch of Twenty One Capital on April 23, backed by Tether, SoftBank, and Cantor Fitzgerald.

The capital city of Ljubljana in Slovenia has been ranked as the most cryptocurrency-friendly city in the world.
Ljubljana, Slovenia, has become the most cryptocurrency-friendly city in the world, surpassing famous cryptocurrency hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore.

The capital of Slovenia — Ljubljana — has been honored by the migration consultancy firm Multipolitan as the most cryptocurrency-friendly city in the world.

The city ranks higher than Hong Kong and the economic powerhouse Zurich in Switzerland, which scored the same in the Cryptocurrency Friendly City Index, according to the 2025 Cryptocurrency Report.
This index includes 20 cities and ranks the level of cryptocurrency friendliness based on regulations, tax environment, lifestyle factors, and digital and cryptocurrency infrastructure.
Multipolitan stated that their assessment considered areas such as the city’s licensing framework, capital gains tax rates, GDP per capita, housing affordability, and internet speed.

“The presence of cryptocurrency ATMs and the rate of retail adoption have been analyzed to reflect each city’s embedded cryptocurrency culture,” the report explains. “A high density of these assets has achieved the highest scores.”
The city-state of Singapore and the capital of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, after tying for second place.

ARK Invest raises price prediction for Bitcoin from 1.5 million to 2.4 million dollars in 2030
ARK Invest estimates that the price of Bitcoin could rise to between 500,000 and 2.4 million dollars by the end of 2030 as Bitcoin continues to be adopted by institutions and nations.

The billion-dollar asset management firm ARK Invest has increased its "bullish" price target for Bitcoin from 1.5 million dollars to 2.4 million dollars by the end of 2030, primarily due to institutional investors and Bitcoin increasingly being accepted as "digital gold".
ARK's "bear" and "base" scenarios for Bitcoin price

Research analyst David Puell of ARK stated in a report on April 24 that the bearish price targets have also risen to 500,000 dollars and 1.2 million dollars.
The bearish price targets and new base targets have been raised from ARK's previous Bitcoin price predictions of 300,000 dollars and 710,000 dollars on February 11.
ARK's price forecast is modeled based on the total addressable market (TAM) of Bitcoin, the penetration rate — the percentage of TAM that Bitcoin can capture in certain scenarios.

Puell, who estimates that Bitcoin will achieve a penetration rate of 6.5% into the 200 trillion dollar financial market in the best-case scenario (this figure excludes gold), stated: "Institutional investment contributes the most to our bullish trend".

Bitcoin's acceptance as "digital gold" is also a key factor contributing to this high estimate, as Puell estimates that it could capture up to 60% of the 18 trillion dollar market capitalization of gold (2024 figures) by the end of 2030 in the bullish scenario.

Blockchain could lead to the 'ChatGPT moment' in adoption: Citigroup
Citi predicts that the supply of stablecoins will continue to be denominated in US dollars, while countries outside the United States may use alternative CBDCs.

According to the giant investment bank Citigroup, regulatory changes could be the catalyst for significant adoption of blockchain technology and stablecoins by 2025.
A group of financial analysts at Citigroup stated in a report on April 23 that: "2025 has the potential to be the 'ChatGPT moment' for blockchain adoption in the financial and public sectors, driven by regulatory changes".

The combination of increasing regulatory support and the adoption by financial institutions has set the stage for stablecoin market capitalization to soar to $3.7 trillion by 2030 or, in a baseline scenario, $1.6 trillion.
Citi said in its report: "The main driver of broader acceptance could be regulatory clarity in the US, which could allow for greater integration of stablecoins in particular and blockchain in general into the current financial system".
"The momentum from regulatory support and the increasing integration of digital assets into current financial institutions is setting the stage for greater use of stablecoins." #GPT

Trump fought against the bond market, and the bond market won: Saifedean Ammous
Ammous stated that the volatility of U.S. bonds during the tariff hikes could rekindle the unique economic characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe haven and potential reserve asset.

Analysts are criticizing the financial impacts of U.S. President Donald Trump's import taxes, a development that some argue highlights the unique economic nature of Bitcoin during times of global instability.
According to critics, Trump’s temporary suspension of higher reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, bringing the tariff rate back to a baseline of 10% for most countries except China, has exposed weaknesses in the U.S. bond market.
Economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard, Saifedean Ammous, stated that the decision to reverse Trump’s higher tariffs may be a reaction to the rising bond yields, indicating that this administration was forced to act.
“Trump fought against the bond market, and the bond market won,” Ammous said in a post on X on April 23. “This bet seemed to have worked on the first day, and the significant collapse in the stock market was seen as a small price to pay for financial sustainability.
“But then, bond prices started to drop sharply, and the catastrophic extent of the tariffs became evident, revealing just how misguided it was to expect that deliberately causing the stock market to collapse would boost the bond market.”

The next major resistance level for Bitcoin is $95,000— What will trigger the breakout?
Capital inflow into Bitcoin exchanges is decreasing, ETF demand is picking up again, and other bullish factors may drive the price of BTC above the next major resistance level of $95,000.

Key points to remember:
Capital inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached the highest level since January 2025.
The amount of money flowing into exchanges has fallen to the lowest level since December 2016.
Negative funding rates for Bitcoin could trigger short selling.
BTC is above key moving averages, which may currently provide support.
Bitcoin's price rose to a new high of $94,700 on April 23, the highest price since March 2.
Some analysts suggest that the next psychological resistance level remains at $95,000 and the price may drop to test lower support levels.

"Clearly, the $94,000–$95,000 range is the resistance that needs to be overcome," Swissblock said in a post on April 24 on X.
The on-chain data provider asserts that the next logical move for Bitcoin will be a pullback to the $90,000 range to build momentum for the next rally.
"The $89,000–$90,000 area could be the next testing ground for buyers, but with BTC's structural strength, these dips are opportunities to buy in."

Renowned Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC believes that this asset is likely to stabilize in the $93,000 - $95,000 range "before moving higher to push liquidity above $100,000."

Bitcoin analysts target $95,000 as Trump's trade war cools — Will BTC futures agree?

Bitcoin surged to $91,695 as the stock market rebounded due to signs of progress in Trump's trade war. Are BTC futures traders drinking the same Kool-Aid?

$BTC Soared to a 45-day high above $91,000 on April 22, and the bullish move coincided with gold hitting a new all-time high. The price increase reflects investors' concerns about the possibility of an economic recession amid ongoing global trade tensions.
The tide is turning, but does the data support the likelihood of Bitcoin prices rising above $95,000?

In neutral markets, Bitcoin futures premiums typically range from 5% to 10% to compensate for the longer settlement time. Currently, the annual premium is 6%, which is not considered particularly optimistic, although BTC has increased by $6,840 from April 20 to April 22. Some analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from the stock market.

Traders' PTSD may appear at BTC's $90,000
Part of this skepticism among traders stems from Bitcoin's continuous inability to maintain levels above $90,000 in early March. For example, Bitcoin tested the $95,000 mark on March 3, only to drop to $81,464 the next day.

XRP Ledger Foundation discovers 'backdoor stealing cryptocurrency' in code library
The foundation stated that a software update package has been released to eliminate the security vulnerability.

The nonprofit XRP Ledger Foundation reported that it has identified a "serious vulnerability" in the official JavaScript library used to interact with the XRP Ledger blockchain network.
On April 22, blockchain security expert Aikido stated in a blog post that the open-source JavaScript library of XRP Ledger had been "compromised by sophisticated attackers inserting a backdoor to steal private keys of cryptocurrency and access cryptocurrency wallets".
The JavaScript library includes programs that allow developers to interact with the XRP Ledger and differentiates it from the blockchain network.
Aikido stated: "This package is used by hundreds of thousands of applications and websites, making it a potentially catastrophic supply chain attack on the cryptocurrency ecosystem".
XRP Ledger Foundation has upgraded its code repository to "remove the previously compromised version", according to a post on April 22 on platform X.
The report also added that several projects in the XRP Ledger ecosystem — including XRPScan, First Ledger, and Gen3 Games — have confirmed that they are not affected by this incident.

According to Theo CoinGecko, this token ended the trading day in the United States with an increase of over 3.5% despite the news of the security breach.
This token has a market capitalization of over 125 billion dollars and a fully diluted valuation of approximately 215 billion dollars.
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This is what happened in cryptocurrency today

1. Publicly traded companies are expanding their cryptocurrency reserve strategy to include more tokens
2. A recent lawsuit from the Oregon Attorney General labels XRP and other digital assets as unregistered securities
3. Paul Atkins has officially taken the oath of office as chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
#CryptoToday

Chiliz meets with the SEC's cryptocurrency task force amid plans to re-enter the US market
Chiliz strategically withdrew from the US market in 2022 due to unstable legal conditions and the collapse of FTX.

Chiliz, a company from SportsFi, met with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to discuss investing and re-entering the US cryptocurrency market under the crypto-friendly administration of the White House and to enhance regulatory clarity regarding digital assets.
According to the meeting request published by the SEC, Chiliz plans to re-enter the US market around the time of the FIFA World Cup 2026. This return will be accompanied by an investment of between $50 million and $100 million in the local market. Teams from the National Basketball Association and National Football League are reportedly interested in launching fan tokens if regulatory clarity is improved.
The meeting with the federal agency was held on April 22 — the same day Chiliz CEO Alexandre Dreyfus shared a photo with Bo Hines, the executive director of Trump's Digital Asset Advisory Council, hinting at a second meeting with White House officials.

According to the meeting documents, Chiliz discussed the proposed structure of a fan token and why it “should not be classified as a security.” Generally, securities are investments where the investor expects returns from the efforts of others besides the investor.
#Chiliz

Former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton sworn in as Acting U.S. Attorney in Manhattan
The nominee by Trump, Jay Clayton, has been appointed as the Acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York after Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer blocked his confirmation vote.

Former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton confirmed he has been appointed as the Acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York after the Democratic Senate leader used a "blue slip" to prevent a confirmation vote on Clayton's position.
The appointment comes more than five months after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Clayton for the role. He replaces Damian Williams, who played a key role in convicting former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and other high-profile cryptocurrency cases.

Clayton stated on April 22 that his top priority is to protect public safety, ensure the integrity of the U.S. financial system, safeguard national security interests, and combat fraud, particularly against the elderly and the most vulnerable.
The temporary nature of Clayton's appointment is due to Democratic Minority Leader in the Senate Chuck Schumer using a blue slip to block Clayton's confirmation on April 16, effectively preventing a Senate vote and his official confirmation to the position.
Senators can use a blue slip to block nominees for U.S. Attorney or district court judges in their state. #FTX

U.S. Judge Transfers Binance Lawsuit to Florida, Citing First-to-File Rule
Federal Judge Barbara Rothstein stated that she approved this motion because the two lawsuits are very similar, which will promote efficiency and avoid duplicate litigation.

A U.S. judge has granted Binance's request to transfer the case related to allegations that the exchange facilitated money laundering to the Southern District of Florida due to a similar case being adjudicated in that court.
The lawsuit was filed in August 2024 in Washington, focusing on the same core issue as the lawsuit filed in June 2023 in Florida, accusing Binance of allowing cybercriminals to use the platform to launder money, Judge of the U.S. District Court Barbara Rothstein said in an order on April 21.

Judge Rothstein stated: "Although the two complaints describe the proposed groups of plaintiffs in slightly different terms, both include the same proposed group of individuals with stolen cryptocurrency transferred into Binance.com accounts during the relevant time period."
"Therefore, this Court concludes that the groups of plaintiffs are sufficiently similar to warrant the application of the first-to-file rule."

The first-to-file rule allows a court to dismiss a ruling on a matter when the related complaint involving the same parties and issues has been filed in another district. Generally, the court that first handles the case typically retains jurisdiction, according to legal resource LSD Law.

Bitcoin Risks 10%-15% Drop After Rejection Near $89,000
Bitcoin is facing an “overbought” stochastic RSI reading while the 200-day exponential moving average is pushing prices lower after hitting a new April high.

$BTC traders see BTC price starting to reverse as classic resistance stalls upside momentum.

200-day moving average keeps BTC price low
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD cooling off after hitting a new April high of $88,874.

After finding strength earlier in the week, Bitcoin has sparked hopes of a gold-like move as the yellow metal hits multiple all-time highs.

Those highs continued on April 22, while BTC price conversely saw rejection at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

“Interesting points. Broke above the 200-day EMA (blue) and the resistance diagonal. So far, seen strong rejection from the 200-day EMA (purple),” trader Daan Crypto Trades said in a post on X alongside the explanatory chart.

“The fun won’t start until we have some daily closes back above the previous low at ~$90K. I think it’s important to hold ~$85K below that.”

The 200-day SMA has often formed support during Bitcoin’s bull markets, but was lost in March when the cryptocurrency faced selling pressure as the US trade war began.

WazirX confirms restart on schedule while awaiting penalty hearing in May

The cryptocurrency exchange WazirX is waiting for a hearing scheduled for mid-May in order to restart operations and compensate affected users.
The Indian cryptocurrency exchange WazirX, which was hacked for $234 million last July, stated that it is on track to resume operations while awaiting a court ruling on May 13 regarding the restructuring proposal and compensation plan for users.

If the Singapore Supreme Court approves, WazirX's parent company Zettai PTE Ltd could restart the exchange and begin a compensation program for affected users within 10 working days, WazirX stated in an update on April 21 for X.

WazirX lost $234 million in cryptocurrency from a secure multi-signature wallet in mid-July 2024 in an attack believed to be carried out by North Korean hackers, forcing them to suspend all cryptocurrency withdrawals and the Indian rupee on the platform.

The company stated: "Zettai has completed all necessary prior steps, and the next important step is the hearing on the sanctions order scheduled by the Singapore High Court on May 13, 2025."

“This hearing is essential for the Program to have legal effect. Although we have made efforts to meet the previously shared timelines, court proceedings are still occurring independently, and we respect that process.” #Singapore

US Dollar, falling stocks, and rising cryptocurrencies as Trump intensifies pressure on the Fed
The President of the United States reiterated calls for interest rate cuts as the stock market continues to plummet and the Dollar Index hits a three-year low.

The cryptocurrency market has avoided the fallout from the latest attack by US President Donald Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, causing US stock markets to decline and the dollar to continue weakening due to instability.
Stock markets across the United States ended April 21 in the red, with the S&P 500 down 2.4%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 2.5%, and the Dow Jones losing 2.5%, equivalent to nearly 1,000 points, according to Google Finance.
The S&P 500 index has now fallen more than 12% since the beginning of the year, and Nasdaq is down nearly 18% amid a wave of selling off US tech stocks.

Stocks slid after escalating tensions between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, along with growing concerns about the impact of trade tariffs.
"Many are calling for 'Cut Rates Now'", Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on April 21.
He added: "With energy costs plummeting, food prices […] significantly lower, and most 'everything else' trending down, there is basically no inflation."

Trump reiterated calls for interest rate cuts, while Powell, who was called "Mr. Too Late" and a "big loser" by the US President, maintained interest rates at a high of 4.5%.
#NASDAQ #PowellSpeech

Bitcoin is preparing to launch from the $85,000 level, BNB, HYPE, TAO, and RNDR may follow
Traders say Bitcoin holding the $85,000 level is a bullish signal and the charts indicate that BNB, HYPE, TAO, and RNDR could be the first altcoins to follow BTC’s price.

Bitcoin has risen about 1% this week, showing a balance between supply and demand. Analysts predict a quiet Easter holiday but are divided on Bitcoin's next directional move.

Network economist Timothy Peterson stated that the U.S. High Yield Index Effective Yield has risen over 8%. There have been 38 such instances since 2010 and Bitcoin has increased by 71% in the three months following. Bitcoin recorded an average gain of 31% with the worst decline being -16%. Based on historical data, Peterson predicts Bitcoin will trade between $75,000 and $138,000 within the next 90 days.

Not everyone shares the bullish outlook. Mike McGlone, Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist, stated in a post on X that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index could drop to their respective 200-week simple moving averages, which act as thresholds during major corrections. Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA is currently near $46,000.
What are the important support and resistance levels in Bitcoin? Which cryptocurrency could rise if Bitcoin breaks through the upper resistance?

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin has maintained above the 20-day exponential moving average ($83,704) for the past few days, but the buyers have been unable to break above the 200-day simple moving average ($88,098).

More than 13,000 organizations are exposed to the Strategy as Saylor hints at buying $BTC
According to data from SaylorTracker, Strategy has increased its investment in Bitcoin by over 25%, equivalent to more than $9 billion in unrealized profits.

Co-founder of the strategy Michael Saylor hinted at the upcoming Bitcoin acquisition by Strategy and stated that there are currently over 13,000 organizations directly exposed to the company.
The company's recent purchase of 3,459 BTC, worth more than $285 million at the time of purchase, on April 14, has raised Strategy's total BTC holdings to 531,644 BTC, worth over $44.9 billion.
Saylor tracks the BTC chart, which he often posts on Sundays to signal an upcoming BTC acquisition, along with an analysis of investor exposure to the company. The CEO wrote in a post on April 20 on X:
"Based on public data as of Q1 2025, more than 13,000 organizations and 814,000 retail accounts hold MSTR directly. It is estimated that there are 55 million beneficiaries with indirect exposure through ETF funds, mutual funds, pensions, and insurance portfolios."
The growing popularity of this strategy among retail and institutional investors is significant as the company withdraws from traditional financial markets and shifts to Bitcoin. The increased capital flow will lead the company to accumulate and hold more BTC, gradually driving up the price of this limited-supply digital asset.

This is what happened in cryptocurrency today

1. The cryptocurrency exchange Bitget has deleted accounts after "unusual trading activity" in the perpetual futures contract VOXEL-USDT.
2. The Dogecoin community celebrates "Doge Day."
3. The chairman of CoinFund targets the latest cryptocurrency report from the Bank for International Settlements.
#CryptoToday