The bearish RSI divergence, similar to 2021, suggests that $BTC could face a correction of over 50% to $64,000, challenging the $150,000 target by year-end.
Key points to remember:
The bearish divergence similar to 2021 on the weekly chart indicates the potential for a correction of 50% or more to $64,000.
Peter Brandt warns that Bitcoin must soon reclaim the parabolic trend line or risk ending the bull cycle before reaching the $150,000 target.
The surge to a record $112,000 has sparked new hopes for a $150,000 target by year-end, but the rapid correction below $105,000 is challenging that optimistic narrative.
Could Bitcoin be a sign of a bearish reversal?
Bitcoin is forming an inverted cup and handle pattern, with the neckline near $100,800 serving as the current support level. As of June 7, the price has entered the handle formation phase, aiming for a breakdown below the neckline.
Based on the inverted cup and handle pattern, a drop in Bitcoin price below $100,800 would increase the likelihood of the price falling to $91,000.
The $91,000 target aligns with BTC's 200-day exponential moving average (EMA 200 days; green wave).
The relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin has declined in line with the price, signaling strong conviction from traders behind the ongoing sell-off.
As of June 7, the RSI index is at 52, reflecting weakening upward momentum; if it drops below 50, it could further increase downward pressure.
To regain control, buyers must reclaim the 20-day EMA resistance level (purple wave) of Bitcoin at around $105,000. A drop to $91,000 could significantly reduce BTC's potential to reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.
2021 fractal analysis indicates BTC will not reach $150,000 by 2025.
On a broader timeframe, Bitcoin's weekly chart is issuing familiar warnings.
A bearish divergence has formed between price and RSI, reflecting the 2021 cycle peak, where RSI trends downward despite higher prices. This divergence occurred before a 61% adjustment to the 200-week EMA (green wave) and below.
A similar structure has now emerged, with divergence forming just below the $112,000 high and the expected retracement target near the 200-week EMA at around $64,000, marking a potential 52% decline.
This historical context raises doubts about Bitcoin's ability to achieve the widely discussed target of $150,000 by the end of 2025, especially if the divergence confirms a broader market peak similar to previous cycles.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt further reinforces this viewpoint.
In the analysis from May 2025, Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern and warned that Bitcoin must reclaim the parabolic trend line to maintain the upward cycle peak momentum of $125,000–$150,000 by August or September 2025.
He notes that failing to do so could mark the end of the current bull cycle - potentially leading to a typical 50–60% downturn after previous peaks.
The trajectory of gold, 'bullish flag' of Bitcoin suggests a $150,000 level.
Despite increasing technical warnings, some analysts still believe in Bitcoin's path toward $150,000.
Traders see similarities between Bitcoin's current market structure and the gold boom of the 2000s. They believe BTC could mimic gold's historical trajectory, reinforcing the $150,000 scenario.
Analyst Tony Severino cites a potential bullish flag structure to predict BTC price will soar to $150,000.
From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes BTC is approaching a crucial 'starting' bullish zone based on historical cycle patterns.
The analyst notes that if the NUPL/MVRV ratio breaks and maintains above 1.0, it would signal the start of a new bullish momentum, potentially pushing Bitcoin price to $150,000–$175,000, similar to the rallies seen in 2017 and 2021.
