币界狂人

Strategy founder Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker chart, or suggests increasing Bitcoin holdings?
If he clearly increases holdings, it may drive up Bitcoin prices, create optimistic market sentiment, and retail and institutional investors may follow suit, resulting in a FOMO effect. #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC

5.4 Ethereum Market Analysis
The boring weekend fluctuation is about to end! Everyone can ambush in advance with the blogger for tomorrow's key market on Monday. From the overall market, it can be seen that the recent 4-hour level has encountered resistance and retreated at 1849, forming a short-term double top structure. The key support level is around 1800, with the daily line showing three consecutive days of long upper shadows, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears. 1800 is the key watershed for the day and also the critical defense level of the daily EMA120 + support from the large bullish candle on May 1st. The suggested strategy is to buy on dips.
Strategy Points: Buy in batches at 1785-1800-1810
Stop Loss: 1730
Target: 1940-1980
The above views are for reference only. #以太坊

Ethereum Market Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategies

【Current Market】
- Latest Price: $1798.53
- 30-Minute Trend: Down 0.64% (1810.09→1798.53)
- 24-Hour Performance: Current price around 1793, down 1.52%

【Market Dynamics】
1-Hour Liquidation Data:
- Total Liquidation: $13.63 million
- ETH Proportion: $280,000 (21.1%)
Indicating the market is still in a volatile state

【Technical Signals】
Bearish Signs Evident:
✓ Top Distribution Pattern Formed
✓ Death Cross Appearing in Moving Averages
✓ MACD Double Top Structure
✓ RSI Reversed Downward After Breaking 50

【Capital Flow】
Main Capital 72-Hour Data:
- Net Outflow: $147 million
- Buy/Sell Ratio: 1:1.35
Indicating institutions are more inclined to sell

【Key Levels】
Support Level: $1800
Resistance Level: $1800 (Current Price Difference Only 0.08%)
Note: Chip Distribution Sparse, High Probability of Breakthrough

【Trading Suggestions】
Short-Term Strategy:
1. If it breaks below the support level, consider short-term positioning
2. Strictly Set Stop Loss
3. Build Position in Batches, Control Risk

Specific Trading Plan:
Entry Range: 1870-1890 (Short Sell)
Target Level: 1700-1600
Stop Loss Level: 1920

【Risk Warning】
Market Volatility is Severe, Recommendations:
- Continuously Monitor Main Capital Flow
- Control Position Size for Each Trade
- Maintain Flexible Responses

(This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice)

The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be released on Friday. Let’s all make some predictions!!! Below are the key judgment criteria. #非农就业数据

Probability of exceeding expectations (>135,000): approximately 55-60%,
Reason: The resilience of the U.S. labor market continues to exceed expectations, and the expectation of 135,000 has already been significantly revised down from the previous value, suggesting a possibility of underestimation.

Probability of falling below expectations: approximately 40-45%.
Reason: The impact of high interest rates and contractions in certain industries may manifest with a lag.

Current market implied signals: The expected value is 135,000, significantly lower than the previous value, reflecting that the market has priced in a slowdown in employment. If the actual data falls between 0-150,000, it may be considered 'in line with expectations'; >150,000 would clearly exceed expectations.
CME interest rate futures indicate that if the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June is below 20% before the data release, it suggests that the market expects economic resilience, and exceeding expectations could further suppress rate cut bets.

Key focus on auxiliary indicators
If the following conditions are met at the time of data release, the likelihood of 'exceeding expectations' is higher:
1. Unemployment rate stable below 3.8%
2. Average hourly wage growth month-on-month ≥0.3% (wage inflation stickiness supports employment demand)
3. Labor participation rate flat or rising (increased labor supply supports employment growth).

Today let's talk about the potential impact on the cryptocurrency market of Trump's tariff threats vs China's tough response!!!
The escalation of the US-China tariff standoff will increase the safe-haven demand for Bitcoin, but may suppress Chinese concept tokens and exacerbate miner selling pressure, significantly enhancing market volatility.
Short-term performance (1-3 months)
1. Bitcoin benefits from safe-haven demand, but Chinese concept tokens are under pressure.
2. Increased risk of miner selling (if mining machines/chips are taxed)
3. USDT OTC premiums may soar, reflecting expectations of capital controls.
Medium to long-term performance (US election cycle)
If Trump wins, geopolitical volatility is favorable for BTC, but the US-China crypto channel may break.
If Biden is re-elected, policy uncertainty decreases, and the market returns to being dominated by macro liquidity.
🎯Ultimate response strategy: (hedging portfolio) long BTC (safe-haven) / short Chinese concept tokens (such as NEO, QTUM).
Go long on Bitcoin hash rate derivatives (such as HASH) and short mining stocks (such as Canaan Creative).
(Disclaimer: This article is a simulation and does not constitute any investment advice!)

Friends who are interested can come and chat together! May 22 Trump 'TRump Coin' dinner - what potential scenarios are there in the cryptocurrency market? Below is a projection based on Trump's style and the characteristics of the crypto market.
🔥 Core storyline predictions:
1. Trump personally 'promotes' it, the Meme coin craze resurfaces.
2. Policy bomb: Trump promises 'crypto-friendly president' plan
3. Musk or Kim Kardashian may 'unexpectedly endorse'
4. SEC or Biden team 'emergency strike'
5. Short-selling institutions vs. retail investors battle (GME-style short squeeze)
Long-term impact projections:
1. If Trump's poll numbers rise:
TRUMP could become the leader of 'political Meme coins', continuing to create hype until the election. Bitcoin's volatility increases as it becomes linked to Trump's policy expectations.
2. If regulatory measures strike hard:
TRUMP could go to zero, but Trump could use this opportunity to shape his image as an 'anti-establishment hero', solidifying support among crypto voters.
3. Black swan risk:
If Trump is arrested or faces significant legal setbacks, TRUMP could collapse instantly, dragging down the entire Meme coin sector.
Final trading strategy:
Short-term: Ambush TRUMP before the dinner, but set strict stop-losses (SEC risks should not be ignored).
Long-term: Focus on whether Trump promotes substantial policies like 'including Bitcoin in the US Treasury reserves' rather than just Meme speculation.
Hedging: Avoid high-leverage trading during the dinner to prevent sudden remarks from causing liquidation.
(Disclaimer: The cryptocurrency market is high risk, this article is a simulated projection and does not constitute any investment advice!)

4.22 Ethereum Market Analysis and Layout Points
K-Line Pattern:
The 4-hour level shows that the price has quickly risen from 1579.22 to around 1639, forming a clear upward trend, and the latest K-line closing price is close to the high point, indicating strong buying pressure. The 1-hour level is oscillating within the range of 1625.36 to 1633.49, forming a short-term consolidation pattern, but overall it is still in an upward channel.
Technical Indicators:
The MACD at the 4-hour level shows both DIF and DEA are positive, and the MACD histogram continues to expand, indicating increased upward momentum.
The RSI at the 4-hour level is 57.3, close to the overbought zone but not entered, showing that there is still room for price increase in the market.
EMA7 at the 4-hour level has crossed above EMA30 and EMA120, forming a bullish arrangement, further confirming the upward trend.
Trading Volume:
At the 4-hour level, the trading volume significantly increased during the price rise, especially during the upward phase from 1579.22 to 1619.21, indicating active buying participation.
At the 1-hour level, the trading volume has decreased within the consolidation range of 1625.36 to 1633.49, showing that the market is waiting for further direction confirmation.
Strategy Point References:
Go long at 1590-1610
Stop loss at 1570
Go short at 1650-1670
Stop loss at 1685
The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice!

The Ethereum long position has also been successfully captured. The short position that was just released yesterday afternoon triggered the entrusted long position, with the current highest point reaching around 1645. At present, it has broken the recent range volatility structure in the short term, preventing further upward breakthroughs. A trailing stop can be used to maximize profits. #以太坊

Ethereum is just at the oscillation target point. It is recommended that everyone take profits! #以太坊

4.19 Ethereum Market Analysis and Layout Points.
K-line Pattern:
The 4-hour level shows that the price fluctuates between 1595 and 1613, forming a slight upward channel, but has not been able to break through the previous high of 1616, with pressure above. The 1-hour level shows that the price fluctuates between 1590 and 1605, with several small bullish candles occurring recently, but no obvious trend has formed, remaining in a consolidation state.
Technical Indicators:
MACD: The 4-hour level MACD histogram has turned from negative to positive, with the DIF and DEA lines approaching a golden cross, indicating a possible short-term rebound. The 1-hour level MACD histogram remains positive, but the slopes of the DIF and DEA lines are gentle, indicating insufficient momentum.
RSI: The 4-hour level RSI hovers around 50, not entering the overbought or oversold zones, indicating neutral market sentiment. The 1-hour level RSI fluctuates around 55, with slight bullish dominance in the short term.
EMA: The 4-hour level price fluctuates between EMA7 (1593) and EMA30 (1595), while EMA120 (1678) is far above the current price, indicating a long-term bearish trend. The 1-hour level price oscillates between EMA7 (1597) and EMA30 (1592), with EMA120 (1596) close to the current price, indicating an unclear short-term trend.
Trading Volume:
The 4-hour level trading volume fluctuates between 24000 and 40000, with no significant increase in volume. Market participation is relatively low. The 1-hour level trading volume fluctuates between 5000 and 12000, with a slight increase in recent trading volume but no obvious trend, as the market still lacks direction.
Strategy Point References:
Go long on Ethereum at 1570-1585, stop loss at 1560.
Go short at 1615-1630, stop loss at 1640.
The above views are for reference only! They do not constitute investment advice. #以太坊

The market in the past couple of days has been slower than a turtle, with little fluctuation, and has been oscillating in a narrow range. For someone like me who trades with a medium to long-term perspective, it's just too frustrating. Do you think this will wear down my patience? Absolutely not! Looking at the overall market, it seems like it can't hold much longer. My years of market experience tell me that it will likely drop a bit further. At this stage, let the bulls perform as much as they want, while I find the right position to short heavily. If you want to play with oscillations, I want my account to be filled to the brim in an instant, haha! #以太坊

4.18 Ethereum Market Analysis and Layout Points
The 4-hour level shows that the price is fluctuating between 1573-1616, forming multiple upper and lower shadows, indicating a tug-of-war in the market.
MACD is in the negative zone at both the 4-hour and 1-hour levels, with the DIF and DEA lines close together, indicating a weak short-term trend, but no obvious downward momentum has formed.
RSI is in the 40-50 range at both the 4-hour and 1-hour levels, in a neutral to weak state, and has not entered the overbought or oversold zones.
EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are all showing a bearish arrangement at the 4-hour and 1-hour levels, with short-term moving averages below long-term lines, indicating an overall bearish trend.
In terms of trading volume, the volume at the 4-hour level has increased during recent fluctuations, especially when the price is declining, indicating strong bearish force. The 1-hour level volume has decreased during price rebounds, indicating insufficient bullish force and a lack of sustained upward momentum in the market.
Strategy reference points:
Long entry point one: Around 1550
Reason: Integer support + previous low (there is buying interest in the range of 1538.07 to 1563.2). EMA120 is moving down in the short term but may still provide a buffer at this price level.
Long entry point two: Around 1525
Reason: A stronger psychological support area, close to the lowest point of April 16 around 1538, and below the current key integer level of 1550, which can attract larger buying interest. After the bearish momentum exhausts, a rebound could be expected.
Long stop-loss point: 1515
Reason: 10 USDT below entry point two (less than half of 1%), to prevent losses from expanding after a false breakdown. At the same time, this area is at the lower end of the recent strong support zone.
Short point one: Around 1595
Reason: EMA30 (1596), EMA7 (1584) resistance + short positions accumulating below the integer level of 1600, with a high probability of short-term bulls taking profits.
Short point two: Around 1615
Reason: Previous high of 1616 shows obvious resistance. The trend is still bearish; if it does not break through, it will form a double top structure. The MACD fast line is close to the zero axis, indicating a potential correction risk.
Short stop-loss point: Around 1625
Sell point 10 USDT (slightly over half of a 1% interval), to avoid being trapped by a false breakout. The resistance of the previous high at 1650 is strengthened, which can serve as a logical stop-loss defense line.

The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. !#以太坊

Arriving at the location, keep an eye on your position, be ready to sell to avoid a market reversal.

The market has been volatile for a day, and the Ethereum long order has finally entered the market. However, waiting for the right moment to enter a trade is the best approach. Don't fear stop-losses; patience is the first step in trading. #以太坊

Ethereum's current price is fluctuating around 1600, forming multiple small candlesticks, with the market in a state of indecision. A long lower shadow has appeared on the 4-hour chart, indicating strong buying support around 1570.
The MACD histogram on the 4-hour level is below the zero line, but the DIF and DEA lines show signs of convergence, suggesting a possible short-term rebound.
The 4-hour RSI is hovering around 50, not entering the overbought or oversold zones, lacking a clear direction.
The EMA price is fluctuating between EMA7 and EMA30, with the short-term moving average EMA7 showing a trend to cross above EMA30, potentially forming short-term support.
The trading volume on the 4-hour level expands during price declines, indicating significant selling pressure. The 1-hour trading volume has increased during price rebounds, but overall remains at a relatively low level.
Ethereum long strategy 1565-1580
(Support range 1575-1580, with previous lows overlapping EMA30 support, consistent with the logic of a pullback at round numbers)
Stop-loss point at 1550, if this position is broken, the upward structure is destroyed, strictly stop-loss to avoid accelerating downside risk.
Ethereum short strategy
1620-1640 (1618-1623 is the upper resistance of the rising channel and a psychological round number, with significant selling pressure)
Stop-loss point at 1655, if the price strongly breaks this position, the short-term bearish scenario is invalid, and a stop-loss must be executed.

Ship, ship! The long orders in the range oscillation market made during the day have reached the target point. The recent price of Ethereum has fluctuated in the range of 1550-1615, forming multiple K-lines with long upper and lower shadows. The market has been fiercely competitive between long and short sides. At 10 o'clock in the evening, a long positive line appeared at the hourly level, and then the price was blocked near 1590.
MACD: DIF and DEA are golden crosses below the zero axis, and the MACD histogram changes from negative to positive, indicating that the short-term momentum has increased #以太坊

The bearish trend of Ethereum has been quite sluggish, but fortunately, it has reached the expected target point nearby.
Next, how to decide! The blogger will analyze it for everyone here.
Recently, Ethereum's daily candlestick chart has shown a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above, with prices blocked around 1600. The hourly candlestick chart is oscillating in the range of 1550-1600, showing no clear trend direction.
Indicators show that both the MACD daily level DIF and DEA are negative, but the MACD histogram shows a slight increase, indicating a possible short-term rebound.
The RSI daily level is at 38.61, in a neutral to weak area, not entering the oversold zone, indicating that there is still downward pressure in the market.
The EMA daily level shows the 7-day moving average (1598.16) crossing below the 30-day moving average (1780.62), indicating a bearish short-term trend.
The trading volume shows a recent contraction at the daily level, indicating reduced market participation and a lack of clear direction.
The hourly trading volume has increased during price fluctuations, but overall remains at a low level, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment.
Strategy reference points:
Long position point one: 1550 (integer support level, combined with recent low point 1551.18, there is a possibility of buying)
Long position point two: 1530 (near previous low 1546.06, strong support level after further pullback)
Long stop-loss point: 1520 (10 USDT below long position point two, to prevent further breakdown)
Short position point one: 1600 (integer resistance level, near recent high point 1604.4, there is selling pressure)
Short position point two: 1620 (near previous high 1623.78, strong resistance level after further rebound)
Short stop-loss point: 1630 (10 USDT above short position point two, to prevent further breakout)
The above strategies are for reference only! They do not constitute investment advice.

4.12 Ethereum Market Analysis
Recently, the price has been fluctuating around 1550, forming multiple small bearish and bullish candles, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market. The previous trading day saw a long upper shadow, suggesting strong selling pressure around 1570.
Technical Indicators
MACD: Both DIF and DEA are positive, but the MACD histogram is gradually shrinking, indicating a weakening of upward momentum.
RSI: The RSI hovers around 50, not entering the overbought or oversold zone, indicating a balanced market.
EMA: The price is below EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120, with short-term moving averages showing a downward trend, and medium to long-term moving averages also exhibiting downward pressure.
Trading volume shows: The trading volume in recent hours has remained around 5000, significantly reduced compared to previous high trading volumes, indicating a decline in market activity.
The previous trading day's trading volume reached 130,000, followed by a rapid shrinkage of volume, indicating a decrease in market participation.
Strategy reference points: Short near 1590-1580
Stop loss at 1610
Take profit at 1500-1510
The above opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. #以太坊

4.11 Ethereum Market Analysis #以太坊
From the 4-hour level, a bottoming pattern with a long lower shadow has recently appeared, with the lowest price rebounding from 1483 to around 1555, indicating strong support at the 1500 level. The daily level has seen two consecutive days of closing in the green but has not broken through the previous high of 1640, forming a rebound structure in a downward trend, with key resistance at 1600.
Indicators show:
MACD: On the 4-hour level, DFI and DEA have crossed above the zero axis (-26.02 crossing -34.89), but on the daily level, it remains in the bearish zone (-141.11/-125.06).
RSI: The 1-hour RSI (14) has rebounded from 36.18 to 52.43, exiting the oversold area but still not entering the strong zone (above 50 is neutral). The daily RSI (14) is at 36.14, still in a weak position.
EMA: The price has risen above the 4-hour EMA7 (1546.32) but is under pressure from EMA30. All EMAs at the daily level show a bearish arrangement.
Trading volume shows a key divergence at critical positions; on April 11th at 12:00, when breaking 1550, the trading volume was only 67760, lower than the previous high near 1626 at 104597.
Strategy reference points: Short around 1570-1560
Target 1510-1500
Stop loss 1590-1600
The above views are for reference only! They do not constitute investment advice.

Is everyone keeping up? Ethereum dropped over 50 points around 1495 in just a few minutes. Is the efficiency of making money not better than moving bricks? #以太坊