The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April will be released on Friday. Let’s all make some predictions!!! Below are the key judgment criteria. #非农就业数据

Probability of exceeding expectations (>135,000): approximately 55-60%,

Reason: The resilience of the U.S. labor market continues to exceed expectations, and the expectation of 135,000 has already been significantly revised down from the previous value, suggesting a possibility of underestimation.

Probability of falling below expectations: approximately 40-45%.

Reason: The impact of high interest rates and contractions in certain industries may manifest with a lag.

Current market implied signals: The expected value is 135,000, significantly lower than the previous value, reflecting that the market has priced in a slowdown in employment. If the actual data falls between 0-150,000, it may be considered 'in line with expectations'; >150,000 would clearly exceed expectations.

CME interest rate futures indicate that if the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June is below 20% before the data release, it suggests that the market expects economic resilience, and exceeding expectations could further suppress rate cut bets.

Key focus on auxiliary indicators

If the following conditions are met at the time of data release, the likelihood of 'exceeding expectations' is higher:

1. Unemployment rate stable below 3.8%

2. Average hourly wage growth month-on-month ≥0.3% (wage inflation stickiness supports employment demand)

3. Labor participation rate flat or rising (increased labor supply supports employment growth).