舵手无名

The supply of stablecoins has surpassed $250 billion for the first time. It will grow even faster in the second half of the year.

· Yield-bearing stablecoins are rapidly increasing. Ethena has grown to nearly $6 billion since its launch.
· Tether and Circle still dominate, holding a combined 86% of the outstanding supply.

币圈要往美股延申，美股想往B圈延申，今年真有意思

As for other knockoffs, there were actually many favorable factors in the past few weeks, which would have definitely led to a significant rise in a traditional bull market.

Still, for the reasons mentioned above, the price may not respond, so there are fewer shares.

Because the price must be driven up by capital, having only a solid fundamental is not enough; they complement each other, and both are essential.

Some partners have asked why I haven't shared much about the fundamental aspects of the cryptocurrency market recently. The truth is that the so-called fundamentals in the altcoin market are quite hollow and fail to elicit much excitement from everyone, which naturally leads to a lack of collective funding sentiment. As a result, the prices may not necessarily reflect this. That's why I haven't talked about it much lately.

The only cryptocurrency with true fundamentals and price is BTC, but there isn’t much to say about it. The topic is quite extensive, and it’s important to spend time reading a few books on the subject. Your understanding of BTC's value will far exceed the half-baked insights from self-media influencers. If you have more free time and are looking to invest long-term, feel free to ask me for a reading list.

(Recently, with the war in the Middle East, I should mention that war is actually beneficial for BTC. Minor conflicts may have short-term negative impacts, but major wars often lead to positive outcomes; the larger the conflict, the more BTC tends to rise. This period truly reflects BTC's value. So, don't let the random FUD from self-media influencers affect your long-term perspective.)

The current market is severely polarized, with more pessimistic bearish views and hesitant bullish sentiments. From a larger perspective, looking at the weekly moving averages, it is still in a bullish trend and has not entered a bear market yet.
#BTC走势分析

Last week's ETH ETF data performed very well, surpassing BTC. This is mainly due to the benefits of new U.S. regulatory policies, which have unbound the staking of the POS model. We haven't seen a corresponding price performance for ETH yet, but if prices increase later, I am sure the impact of this event will be magnified, potentially even attracting institutional FOMO.

For ETF issuers, the additional few points of staking yield are quite considerable, as this represents extra risk-free income. Their size is large enough that the profits are also significant, and they will actively market and promote, deliberately creating FOMO sentiment. This significant positive factor is seriously underestimated by the market.

Subsequent ETF launches for SOL and others will also benefit from this. At this time, institutions are quietly implementing their strategies, and once prices rise, they will collectively come out to make announcements. What we need to wait for now is for ETH prices to cooperate and rise, complementing each other.

#ETH

ETH is still in a large long-term oscillation range, and many people are shorting and bearish on ETH. ETH has been performing relatively strong for a long time recently, and I still hold the previous view that unless the range is broken, it is not advisable to short easily. If the market has a slight positive sentiment or BTC turns upward, it will pull up and explode the shorts.

In such scenarios, shorting is more suitable on the right side, while shorting on the left side has a high probability of being hammered repeatedly.
#ETH

BTC price did not break below the high volatility range last week; it has been consolidating in the middle of the range for 3 days.

As of this morning's weekly close, a doji has formed for the second consecutive week at a high level, indicating market stagnation and often an unclear direction. The high-level consolidation has lasted for 4 weeks, showing a non-trending market in the bare candlesticks.

Last night, the U.S. stock market crashed, which directly brought down Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market. Some say it's due to the situation in the Middle East; it's really frustrating, with constant ups and downs all day long.

I waited a long time for an opportunity on the right side, with profitable long positions in ETH and SOL last night, but everything went back and hit my stop loss. There have been no opportunities for a structured trade on the right side this month; it's difficult to catch a smooth trending market.

The B market lacks liquidity, and a larger amount of capital can influence the trend. First, MicroStrategy drove the price up, then various negative news hit it down a bit, and later institutions bought it back up again...

News related to Trump really shouldn't be trusted, especially negative news.
If guessed correctly, they will soon reconcile.
What a drama queen.

Yesterday morning, I predicted that ETH would have a market movement, and the comments section was filled with laughter.
I knew the market would come; only a few would be the winners.

I took long positions on #EigenLayer. EIGEN and #ETHFI with unity of knowledge and action.

Everything has not yet begun.

ETH is about to surge, aiming for 3000. Keep an eye on it for surprises
#ETH

Abandon the bearish mindset; the market is set to rise. The judgment made in yesterday's article was correct, but it came even faster than I expected.
I originally thought we would wait until around the 11th for the CPI data to be released before rallying upwards.

Next, pay attention to the imitation opportunities ​​​​
#加密市场反弹

Experience tells me that the opportunity for altcoins is not far away. It may not be the season for altcoins, but some altcoins will begin to show an upward trend. They are waiting for the signal from BTC. As for which altcoins have opportunities, this is where a participant's comprehensive skill and true ability are tested.

Last week, I reminded everyone that a short opportunity had arrived, and now it's time to abandon the bearish mindset!
Overall, BTC's trend still appears strong, and it is highly likely to maintain the earlier judgment of high-level consolidation without significant pullbacks.

This week's outlook currently has two major possibilities: one is horizontal range consolidation, turning upward in the latter part of the week. The other is a downward probe followed by an upward consolidation. The probability of breaking below the 100,000 support level within the week is very low.
#BTC走势分析

The current position and approach are not friendly to spot retail investors.
The BTC market makers are quite bad; as long as there are many retail investors willing to chase positions in the market, experience tells me that they will definitely push it down to another support level (buying BTC is fine, but if you enter early to ambush altcoins, you'll suffer greater losses after the decline). If retail investors choose not to follow, then they will use time to exchange for space. When the time comes, they will find themselves unknowingly grinding to a high position, and later, when they realize it and want to enter the market, there will be no cheap chips left for them.
(To make money in the spot market, one cannot follow the crowd; as long as the majority of retail investor behavior shows consistency, there is a high probability of being hit.)

The current approach is one of the classic manipulation techniques used by market makers in the stock market.

There is a trend but no good position; if buying in the 100,000 support zone, be prepared for the first batch of positions to be trapped. In real trading in the stock market, there is a professional term for this—buying traps (prepare for being trapped after buying if the price drops).

Why do trading experts also buy traps, knowing that it might drop yet still choose to buy?

Because the essence of market trends is unpredictable; when buying traps, the probability of an upward movement is often higher. If you don't buy in at this moment, there is a risk of missing out later.

Decades of experience from countless masters in the stock market tell us that the best way to deal with this situation is to control position management and adopt a phased strategy.
#BTC走势分析

The cryptocurrency market is completely different from before, and the participants have changed dramatically, making the trend more sinister.

If BTC has a major player, then the new players are like beasts, with the spot market unwilling to give retail investors any chance, the competition is at a higher dimension and more brutal.

The two leading cryptocurrencies are showing contradictory trends: BTC and ETH, one wants to rise while the other wants to fall. Those that want to rise are unable to do so, and those that want to fall are not falling deeply enough.

BTC has been in a correction for over two weeks, but the price has been unable to drop significantly; this morning, the weekly chart closed with a doji star.

Many altcoins that fell last week have reached key buy points. For example, the low point of SOL in the image below was one of the buying ranges for the spot market.
#BTC走势分析

Last Monday, there were two possible scenarios for BTC's movement: one was sideways consolidation followed by a drop, and the other was a sharp upward move to trigger a wave of shorts before dropping. The subsequent movement confirmed the first scenario, where it consolidated sideways and then fell.
The drop aligned as well, just reaching the support level around the 100,000 mark before stopping the decline. However, there was an immediate quick rebound, and it has now returned to the previous consolidation range.

My intuition tells me this is very bad; there are contradictions in real trading opportunities.

From the perspective of the shanzhai index, many clones have already corrected to the first key position, and currently, the major BTC and ETH corrections are weak. It's a frustrating market; BTC is strong right now, but it's not the right time, making it difficult to operate and leaving one in a dilemma.

Most people are always late to the party; they often realize it in the middle of the trend, and when they experience FOMO, it's usually at the end of the trend. ​​​
#山寨币热点

About Dogecoin DOGE:

Recently, the new regulations on stablecoins have had the greatest impact on Dogecoin.

Buying Dogecoin has always been said to be only advisable if you are a long-term holder for value investment; for the medium to short term, you must consider technical analysis and the broader market trends, otherwise holding onto it will be quite painful.

Financial markets often have value that may not necessarily reflect in short-term prices.
#DOGE