比特进

The market has fallen for three consecutive days and is currently in an oversold state, so it has started to rebound today.
After the rebound ends, the outlook remains somewhat bearish.

BTC's rebound is still very weak, not even touching the middle track of 102574 at the moment.
BTC resistance levels: 103268, 103971, 105588
ETH resistance levels: 2376, 2435, 2541

The next wave of accelerated decline is expected after the 20th.
Here, we need to grind for a while, continuing the oscillation downward.

Upper range BTC 105500 ETH 2530
Lower range BTC 102000 96000
ETH 2345 2210 2020.

The main force is continuously testing the buying strength of retail investors.
Yesterday's rebound, the remaining contract funds of the main force continued to be given to retail investors.
As retail investors' buying strength weakens, it will eventually turn downward.
This recent period is your time to place bets; are you going long or short?

Today's 2 thoughts:

1. What is the operating rule of BTC?
My own view is based on the grand narrative of the main capital continuously accumulating at the bottom and unloading at the top, repeating the process of accumulating at the bottom. In the process of rise and fall, they repeatedly harvest the wealth of financial market players.

Have you ever wondered why the big players have a constant flow of funds to drive the market? Because they can not only make money by going long on contracts at the bottom but also continue to make money by going short at the top. Since they determine the trend and direction, they almost always make a profit when they act.

Why this sudden thought? It’s because in the past six months, I have noticed that after the main players unload their goods, the market peaks and then slowly declines for several months, and after accumulating at the bottom, they start the next round of the market, and then they unload again, leading to a significant correction.

Each time the market is driven up, the big players can continuously earn several times their profits. Even as BTC's market capitalization grows larger, there is still continuous upward momentum and funding. Additionally, the narrative and application of BTC are unprecedented, which can continuously attract funds.

One hypothesis is that if there were no contracts or other financial derivatives, then BTC’s market capitalization might not be able to rise. Contracts allow the main players to magnify their returns several times, and similarly, they can also magnify the losses of retail investors by several times.

The essence of the market is the game between the main players and retail investors, where money flows from the cash-strapped retail investors to the big players who are not in need of money.

2. What is a contract?
The essence of a contract is volatility. If you bet on the right direction and control a position that can withstand volatility, you can continuously make money. The prerequisite is that the direction must be correct, which confounds 90% of people.

Explain why I maintain a relatively pessimistic view on the upcoming market:

1. The market's liquidity has plummeted significantly since May 24.
2. The main players in BTC have been gradually offloading their holdings since May 22, with 85% sold so far.
3. The long-short ratio in the market has skyrocketed since May 31, indicating that an increasing number of people are bullish, leading to greater resistance.
4. PUMP is about to issue tokens, with an FDV of 4 billion USD; this project could drain the last bit of liquidity from the crypto space.
5. The main ETH futures contracts have been completely liquidated at 2700, but many institutions have been increasing their ETH spot holdings, resulting in an unusually strong market; there is fear that BTC might drag ETH down later.
6. Recently, some altcoins like DEGO have offloaded their positions early, as liquidity is still relatively good now, but it’s uncertain moving forward; if you’re making a profit, it’s better to exit early.

We analyze the market based on capital data and try to minimize subjective opinions.

Possible scenarios ahead:
First pullback, retail investors: bottom fishing,
Second pullback, continue buying,
Third pullback, borrowing to bottom fish
Fourth pullback, bear market arrives, better to cut losses.

Every time it's the same script, but at the real bottom, few dare to buy and have confidence. Looking back at around 76000, you'll understand, it was only 2 months ago.

The case is solved, there's no need to fantasize, the bull market has ended early.
Study the dealer's chip structure, just look at the contracts, no need to look at the spot.

The main BTC contracts have been gradually sold off since May 22, and currently, 90% has been sold. The main ETH contracts were gradually cleared out on May 11, around 2600-2700.

So why has the market been so strong for so long without dropping?
Because they need to slowly sell to retail investors, and many institutions have also started to FOMO into buying ETH spot, which is why after May 17, the spot has slowly begun to increase, but has never flowed out, because these large institutions are ETFs, and they need to hold a certain amount of ETF spot without moving.

I just looked at the data again, and the capital outflow is very fast. Bulls should pay attention to the risks.

Let the chart speak for itself. This large-scale selling by the copycat main force is very similar to December 9, 2024, both analyzed based on capital data, without subjective analysis or judgment.

Like in the previous post, I won't predict the extent or timing of the adjustment,
If the main force doesn't pick up the goods, I won't enter the market. One word: wait for opportunities.

In this round of the market, the cumulative capital of the largest BTC contracts reached 6660m. On May 30th, the system indicated that the main force had already fled. By that time, the maximum accumulated capital had already decreased by 50%. Then, on May 30th and June 1st, the capital accumulation continued to decrease, indicating that market funds were busy retreating.

The first circle is from March 26th when Bitcoin rebounded to 88000. At that time, I also noted that the main funds had retreated. Later, when it dropped to 84000, I subjectively believed it had bottomed out and started buying long positions. After that, it continued to decline until it reached 76000, when the main force finally started to absorb and accumulate. What I mean by this is that no one can predict where it will drop to. If someone predicts it, it’s just lucky guessing. Let them try to predict 10 times in a row and they will be exposed; no one is a deity.

However, when we truly see the main force starting to accumulate at a certain volume, it indicates that the main funds have intervened, and the bottom is formed. This is not a subjective view, but objective data.

So, I don’t want to analyze and predict where the pullback will be or when it will bottom out. I can't do that. Once the main force intervenes, the website will indicate it later. When BTC reaches the conditions for intervention, we can enter on the right side.

Everyone has their subjective views, but often it is the subjective views that lead to significant losses.

Continue to use the method of main force absorbing funds to review and analyze the trend of the market:
We have been firmly bullish since April 13, at least proving that this method is reliable.
In fact, the trend was formed on April 13, and it was possible to go all-in before April 20.

This is how I analyzed and concluded.
The recent rise over the past month has experienced a small climax and two major washouts.
Retail investors have basically been washed out, and short sellers have basically been liquidated.

@liangxihuigui凉兮If you can pay more attention to my posts, you won't be liquidated.
Fund analysis > K-line trend > technical analysis,
Funds are the cause, K-line trend is the result,
The main force's funds control everything, including trends and directions.

Protect your own energy

Good luck requires a certain amount of time to accumulate, and then it suddenly erupts at a specific moment. Bad luck, on the other hand, does not require accumulation; it spreads like a rotten apple, starting with just a small area of rot. At this point, you will find that the apples closest to it also begin to rot.

People are the same; engage more with those who have good fortune and avoid dealing with those who have poor luck or a bad fate. It is even more important not to interact too much or develop close relationships with them, because they are like rotten apples. They can silently and subtly influence you; anyone who gets close to them will be affected.

A person's body is influenced by energy and emotions. Hearing their unfortunate and distressing stories essentially requires using your own energy to resist them, which undoubtedly leads to depletion. When you do not possess energy equivalent to others and do not contribute anything, trying to convey negative energy or seeking positive energy from others becomes a form of taking and transmitting negative energy.

For a cryptocurrency to gain sufficient consensus, it must be bottom-up, allowing believers and diamond hands to make money. For example, the success of BTC and coins like ORDI is like this, but some VC coins like ICP and ARB, when they launch, have tens of billions or even hundreds of billions in FDV, which will not create a consensus foundation.

Our investment thinking is quite the opposite, it is top-down, which is what we call the God perspective. The book 'Principles' talks about high-level thinking, which is essentially the same.

Why is the God perspective so powerful:
First, it allows us to detach from the 'I' and become an observer or overseer in our own life and existence. As an observer, what you see is different from what 'I' see, and you won't get lost in your own feelings and emotions.
Second, it gives us a broader vision and clearer insight, enabling us to make more accurate decisions and judgments.

Let's talk about the elections and the market trends:
No matter who is elected, the result is an increase.
The major trend is an increase; this is the mid-stage of a bull market.
The medium trend is an increase; it has been seven months since the halving.
The minor trend is an increase; the long-short ratio in the seven-day contract market has reached 1/4. Recently, after a drop, it was followed by a short squeeze.

The essence of the cryptocurrency world is finance, and the essence of finance is energy.

A small story: There is a city called Boston, and this is how they planned their roads, as their roads have no regular pattern. In fact, their roads were widened using the paths of cattle.
When cattle walk, they usually follow the terrain, seeking the easiest path; if there is a mountain ahead, the cattle will not force their way through; they will choose the easiest route, even if it means going around to the other side of the mountain.

In a structure, energy often travels along the path of least resistance. It is not only true for cattle; it applies to the cryptocurrency world, the stock market, and everything in nature. Once you grasp the underlying principles of energy flow, analyzing market trends becomes much easier.

Let me first say the conclusion: The violent bull market is about to start. When the volatility is reduced to the extreme, it will explode, without exception. It is definitely not a bear market now, but a halftime break in the bull market.

In the bottom area of ​​June 2023, I applied the alt score to do an analysis, and it is more accurate now. This time I used two indicators to comprehensively analyze whether the market is in the bottom area, that is, BTC's historical volatility index and alt score. Just look at the picture to speak, how much money you can make depends on this time. Let's rush 100,000 U for the big cake first. The inscriptions are ordi sats rats and atom quark PIZZA, which are basically these. The so-called value coins, it doesn't matter whether you play or not. When the mood comes, you will speculate on the inscriptions and then the meme. The alt season will definitely come, but most alts may not rise too much. For some institutional coins with huge fdv, you can allocate less or not participate.
#BTC#ORDI#SATS#RATS#PIZZA#ATOM #QUARK

In the past 4-5 months, I have only focused on the two projects, BTC and HAC. I have studied the most basic logic. If the logic is not strong, I dare not hold a large position for a long time. I can't even deceive myself. Almost all the coins in the current currency circle are scams. The so-called value is just wishful thinking. It is valuable in a small circle and in the short term.

I don't hold any meme, Ai, or institutional coins. Whether I miss the opportunity or not make money, I don't envy them. One thing is that fully unlocked coins may be better than institutional unlocked coins, and some decentralization may be the biggest highlight. Apart from that, there is no value. In essence, it is all air. If you see it too thoroughly, you may not be able to do it. No matter what track it is, it is all hype, and ultimately it is working for the track of sound currency. Therefore, only BTC HAC and other things are valuable in the long run. It's hard to say about the short term. It may be normal to hype it up dozens of times. Let alone Dogecoin, I think ETH has no value. It's too empty to hype it up. The narrative is too hollow, the ceiling is just a cakewalk, there is almost no innovation, and there is no decentralization.

Without decentralization, we retail investors will be harvested in the end. Is the previously popular Ripple XRP still there? What other public chains are there? I dare not hold it for 5 years, but I would rather not hold it for 5 minutes.

In October 2013, the only application scenario of Bitcoin, the dark web website called Silk Road, was forcibly closed by the US government. It is said that BTC has become a complete air currency and should return to zero. In fact, after a short-term decline, BTC rose from 85u to around 1175u in more than a month.

Let's analyze why this is the case? BTC's track is the world's sound currency, and BTC's application scenario is payment and settlement on the dark web. But the main value of BTC is its value storage. Even if its short-term payment and settlement scenario is turned off, it will not affect its value. Valuable things will sooner or later return to their place.

No matter what we invest in, we must think more about its essence? Where is its value?

What is the long-term value of Hacash?
#BTC#Hacash #Hac

The biggest trap of the Fat Cat incident is the sunk cost. The deeper you fall, the more you choose to commit suicide.
In economics, "sunk costs" refer to those expenses that have been paid and cannot be recovered, such as time, money, emotions, energy, etc.

In life, many people are often reluctant to give up their sunk costs:
You bought a movie ticket, watched it for half an hour and found it was a bad movie, but still watched it;
You have been in love with your boyfriend for 3 years, and you obviously have no feelings for each other, but you are still together;
You travel to popular attractions, but when you arrive, you will still walk the whole way when you see that there are too many people and the scenery is bad;
You have worked in an industry for many years, but you have no development prospects and don’t want to give up the accumulated experience, so you continue to worry and worry...

The amazing sunk cost tells us that timely stop loss is the high-end configuration of adults.
Many people invest in a stock or a coin, and it falls by 90%.
If you tell him to cut losses, he may scold you, saying that if you cut losses again, there will be no more, but in fact, if you don’t cut losses, there will be no more.
99.9% of the assets in the currency circle are close to zero in the end, and no more than 0.1% are truly valuable.

Not only in the financial market, but also in real life. Cutting losses, stopping losses in time, and stopping profits are all the highest wisdom. Being PUA is not scary, what is scary is not knowing how to cut losses.#FatCat Incident#StopLoss #PUA

More than 80% of KOLs have been calling for bottom-fishing almost every day from January to April. I wonder if the bottom-fishing has made money in recent months. There are no more than three real good opportunities a year. Frequent bottom-fishing means frequent quilting.

I divide the coins in the cryptocurrency circle into two types:

1. The first type is weakly cyclical, which means that the fluctuations will not be particularly large, and then it will rise slowly and steadily.
This type of coin has the following characteristics: good narrative, strong trend, powerful dealers, solid fundamentals, no need to worry about being trapped for a long time, no need to worry about not running at the high point, and you will feel at ease after buying.
Even if the market does not hype this track, it will slowly rise and explode. Don't worry about no funds entering, and then no rise for half a year or a year.
This type of coin is generally a public chain. The coins that meet the conditions in this bull market are: BTC ETH STX SOL TAO RNDR KAS HAC AVAX INJ PENDLE BGB and other public chain coins.

2. The second type is very cyclical, and you must stop profit after the hype, otherwise you will stand guard for several months or even a year. Common tracks include MEME, RWA, AI, NFT, DEFI, L2, inscription, metaverse, AR, blockchain games, storage, depin, etc.

Summary:
For long-term configuration, choose the first one. If it is the second coin, you must stop profit when you make a profit. In the worst case, you must withdraw the principal. Otherwise, it may be a waste of money in the end, and the profit will turn into a loss.