靠酒续命

Finally!

Slapping myself twice, it's really hard to achieve unity of knowledge and action. I didn't take profits, and when it bounced back, I held onto the position. Although I didn't get liquidated, the losses aren't small either. Sigh, trading is really tough; I have to push myself, there’s no turning back. I won't make any trades today; I've been a bit anxious lately, too eager, and switching trading strategies is really hard. Ultra-short-term trading relies too much on discipline.

The US dollar index continues to decline, and US stocks are likely to open lower.
Today, ETH is still experiencing a decrease in volume, down 4%, and it probably hasn't reached the bottom yet. Let's wait for the market to open. I mentioned this morning that trading volume continues to decline, so the market will look for a new price range. Currently, trading volume is generally in the 2440-2550 range. It needs to return to the 2550 level to see more volume. A short-term peak has appeared, but there is no volume above, and it won't go back up in the short term; it will keep going down. We'll see how it performs tonight; I'm still bullish before June, but I estimate a change in trend in June.

This morning's trading volume was 600 million, a significant decrease in volume, and the price formed a doji. The main trading volume is still in the 2670-2660 range, with basically no trading volume at the bottom 2540-2550. This afternoon, it should move upward, looking at the trading volume in the 2700-2670 position.

Yesterday I got liquidated again, still original sin, damn it, the comment section shared the direction and analysis, but I couldn't achieve the unity of knowledge and action. I ran with the long position from 2500 to 2550, then reversed and shorted, getting crushed at the bottom. The volume broke out, CPI was favorable, and I still went short, unbelievable. My brain is too slow to react.
Let’s talk about today’s direction. Yesterday, the US stock market opened high and kept rising, heading in a good direction, the Nasdaq is almost back to 20,000. The CPI data is also positive.
The ETH fund opened high, retreated, and then saw a volume contraction surge during the day. I saw a trading volume of over 20 million, with most of the volume in the last trading session, and there wasn’t much trading volume during the day, indicating that someone was taking profits. However, the overall US stock market had a bit of a pullback, and the BTC fund also retraced a bit, but ETH rose against the trend with reduced volume, which suggests either the market maker is controlling the quotes or the market is locking positions. This is difficult to analyze, but in any case, there should be some divergence during the day because when the market contracts, it needs to find a new direction.
Now the previous high is 2840, and yesterday’s highest point was 2730, not too far apart. There was no huge breakout last night, which indicates that there is divergence at this position. There should still be a breakout later, and the short-term low should be around 2550-2560, where it oscillated the longest last night. Let's see if it can drop down; if it can, then the low could be 2400-2440. I feel it won’t drop; the overall trend is still bullish, constantly breaking through high points without reaching the real peak.

Lost 900u again from 1375u, still playing recklessly, buying without a buy signal, still have a gambling mentality, no trading principles. Must change, felt terrible and smoked all night, didn't dare to open a position again. Need to avoid getting carried away. Today, adjust my mindset, must overcome the gambling mentality, in trading, must wait for an effective buy signal, set stop-loss before entering.

Greed, hesitation, irrationality, explosive mentality, truly original sin. Last night could have taken profits, but didn't; this morning the market changed direction without judgment, holding onto positions all the way, lacking rational analysis. Clearly a significant rise in volume, yet it didn't break previous levels. Those who should have cut losses are still full of hope. Truly foolish.

Sigh, I still can't maintain trading discipline, I'm really starting to hate myself more and more. How many times do I have to experience a cut in half to learn this?

Have a reverence for trading, once again a hand chopping operation

Sigh, can't control my hands

Still couldn't help but place an order, feels like this wave needs to hit the 939 position, securing profits, if it drops to 929 then I'll buy back more.

The situation today is a bit difficult to understand. Last night, it dropped all the way to 937, then after the close in the early morning, it was pulled back up to 944. The morning high was 195, and in the afternoon, it has been fluctuating around 940. ETH has also been fluctuating around 1800. The battle between bulls and bears is a bit of a stalemate. It feels like the market makers are brewing something significant. Today, I'll just observe and not trade. Seeking stability.

Currently, the intensity of the sell-off is not strong, mainly because there is no support at the bottom, and the long positions have not been closed yet. The short positions are generally around the 98-99 level, which I mentioned before requires a large influx of funds and market synergy. Yesterday, when it reached the 978 level, there was market divergence, and it couldn't break through. The market maker is pushing down the long positions today, and there should be a correction during the day on Monday. The position to which it drops still depends on market sentiment. If the profit positions at 93-94 are not closed, then it could remain stubbornly at 93. If they are closed or if short positions increase, it may continue to fluctuate, waiting for the big player. From the chart, it still shows an upward trend, so one should buy on dips.

No trades today, just closed yesterday's short position. Trading volume should be reduced these days. Currently, it looks like it will decline slowly. Tonight, it should fluctuate between 955-960. If it breaks below 950, we can go long.

The late session directly pulls up to 985, feeling great.

Many armies are awesome

In terms of news, the non-farm payroll data for April will be released tonight, which has a significant impact on the market.
U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 0.33, gold rose by 1.41, and BTC increased to 974.
From a technical perspective, there is still some divergence on the 4-hour chart. Yesterday's volume was 3 billion, and today during the day it shrank to 700-800 million. Currently, at this price level, the low volume is not right, indicating that the concentration of chips is still too high, and the market generally has a bullish sentiment.
The long-short ratio remains at 0.6, but the number of bullish positions between 92-97 is still greater than those between 97-985. The liquidation price for shorts should all be above 10, while most bulls are generally at around 90.
At present, the biggest resistance upward is 985. If 985 breaks, then there are two resistance levels at 10. Downward, we have the two positions at 92 and 938.
Today, it consolidated between 964-967 for the whole day, without a breakout in volume. The main volume was at 961 and 974. This indicates that the main force is still hesitant, probably waiting for news. The dog traders have not made any moves, likely also waiting to see what the big players do. Even though there are more bulls in the 92-985 range, if we look at it longer-term, if they can break through 10 in one go, there will be more bears. So, the dog traders still need to see how the big players plan to act. If the big player wants to push up, it will directly wipe out the shorts; if not, it will eat away the bulls at 92. The current position is relatively awkward.
Based on the trend of U.S. stocks over the past two days and the inflow of funds into ETFs, the probability of a rally is quite high. To what position will it rally? I feel that it should rally to around 983 before hitting 95 at the end of the day and returning to 97. The possibility of a single push to 10 is low unless there is a collective effort from the market or at least 1 billion in incremental funds, both of which are quite difficult. At 985, it can basically absorb 700-800 million of the short positions, and then a sharp turn downward can force some bullish positions to exit, reducing the burden.

The multiple armies are still formidable. According to previous analysis, 98 should break today. Sigh, is there any unity in action? Once again caught in a trap, feeling uncomfortable.

There isn't much analysis today, many troops are awesome

Today is May Day, and there are still many influences in the news. Take a good rest.

Yesterday, U.S. stocks were influenced by the news, opening high and low, which caused Bitcoin to drop, but then it surged, bringing back Bitcoin with a small profit.

Today, the prediction should be a volatile trend, and currently, the long and short ratio in the 96-92 range is still more bearish.

Tonight at 8 PM and 10 PM, unemployment claims and PMI data will be released, which will have some impact on the stock market. But the impact may not be significant.
In terms of technicals, when U.S. stocks opened yesterday, after the release of negative data, Bitcoin fell to 929, then quickly rebounded to 938 and consolidated for a long period, breaking through 947-949 after the close.
From the picture, it can be seen that it has already broken through the downward position yesterday, with support levels at 938 and 929 both being broken, but quickly rebounding and consolidating at 938, indicating that buying pressure is still strong and bullish sentiment can be expected.
Of course, to continue rising, it needs to break through the resistance above. If 955 can break through 957 and maintain a volatile volume between 950-955, it indicates a bullish outlook. If it breaks 957-958 and cannot hold 950, then it will pull back. Currently, it seems that 957-958 should be broken in the next couple of days. There will not be a downward trend in the short term.

Continuing from the previous text, a breakthrough is inevitable, so the question is how to break through—whether it will be on increasing or decreasing volume. Currently, the selling pressure at 950 remains above 155, while the buying pressure is still controlling the volume combined with the consolidation of the past few days, it is highly likely to see a significant surge with a volume of around 100-200 million.
Where will this 100-200 million volume come from? From the big players, institutions, or retail investors? These need to be analyzed in conjunction with the news.

That's it for today, happy May Day to everyone, no trading today. Both trades made yesterday were profitable, slowly cultivating my trading discipline, mindset, and execution. Keep it up! I gradually start to find trading very boring, but every time I think about losing so much money, I must persist. Respect!