Earline Blanding jij7

Today is May Day, and there are still many influences in the news. Take a good rest.

Yesterday, U.S. stocks were influenced by the news, opening high and low, which caused Bitcoin to drop, but then it surged, bringing back Bitcoin with a small profit.

Today, the prediction should be a volatile trend, and currently, the long and short ratio in the 96-92 range is still more bearish.

Tonight at 8 PM and 10 PM, unemployment claims and PMI data will be released, which will have some impact on the stock market. But the impact may not be significant.
In terms of technicals, when U.S. stocks opened yesterday, after the release of negative data, Bitcoin fell to 929, then quickly rebounded to 938 and consolidated for a long period, breaking through 947-949 after the close.
From the picture, it can be seen that it has already broken through the downward position yesterday, with support levels at 938 and 929 both being broken, but quickly rebounding and consolidating at 938, indicating that buying pressure is still strong and bullish sentiment can be expected.
Of course, to continue rising, it needs to break through the resistance above. If 955 can break through 957 and maintain a volatile volume between 950-955, it indicates a bullish outlook. If it breaks 957-958 and cannot hold 950, then it will pull back. Currently, it seems that 957-958 should be broken in the next couple of days. There will not be a downward trend in the short term.

Continuing from the previous text, a breakthrough is inevitable, so the question is how to break through—whether it will be on increasing or decreasing volume. Currently, the selling pressure at 950 remains above 155, while the buying pressure is still controlling the volume combined with the consolidation of the past few days, it is highly likely to see a significant surge with a volume of around 100-200 million.
Where will this 100-200 million volume come from? From the big players, institutions, or retail investors? These need to be analyzed in conjunction with the news.

That's it for today, happy May Day to everyone, no trading today. Both trades made yesterday were profitable, slowly cultivating my trading discipline, mindset, and execution. Keep it up! I gradually start to find trading very boring, but every time I think about losing so much money, I must persist. Respect!

I originally thought that missing the news would lead to a liquidation, and I wanted to cut my losses. However, after combining it with my prior analysis, I stuck to my initial viewpoint and added to my position at a low. Fortunately, the losses weren't significant, and the big players should pull it back one more time.

消息面打击还是很大的

这两天的分析没有写太多分析过程，主要是太累了，白天上班，晚上要盯盘，写内容如果花太多时间容易错过一些信息。后续我看看能不能手写一下，大家也可以自己分析一下。对手盘可以列为华尔街大哥，狗庄，大户，以及其他散户。通过消息面，交易量，挂单来分析各各对手盘的操作，每次做操作前先分析好，再执行，如果错了，就复盘总结，不断提升自己。加油

1800 can be more eth

The news front has no major negative or positive impacts
Gold continues to decline
US Treasury bonds slightly dropped to 4.1
US stocks opened lower last night but then rose
BTC dropped after opening last night but quickly surged, and after the US stocks closed at 4, it rapidly fell again. After 8, it continued to rise to fluctuate between 945-949
Technical aspects:
The long-short ratio remains around 0.6-0.7.
In the spot market, after a few days of fluctuating trends, the selling pressure above has significantly weakened, while the support below at 92 has strengthened.

From the above, it seems that the market has completed its energy accumulation, and it should move towards an upward breakout.

Today should be a situation where the military is awesome

分析错误，今天因该一口上涨了。

今天自己犯的错误有点多，不允许自己操作。

再给自己立个要求，不允许碰山寨币。

Morning error in operation, analyzed that 949 would surge and fall back at 953, hesitated and did not sell. It wasn't really hesitation but greed, made a mistake.
The second mistake was setting a stop loss at 947, and then withdrew just as it was about to break through. No trading principles, foolishly hoping for a rebound.

As a punishment, I cannot execute a second trade today.

US stocks closed down 0.1%, US stock BTC spot ETF fell 0.72%, gold rose 0.1%, and BTC's trading volume has reached 2 billion so far.

In the morning, it should show an upward trend and may break through 96.

First, it leveled off and started to fluctuate. When the US stock market opened, it didn't rise and then fell slightly on low volume. Subsequently, it continued to decline with shrinking volume. For the forecast of the latter half of the night, it should pull back slightly, expected around 4-8 o'clock, and then there will likely be a panic sell-off above.

The market maker is expected to slightly break through the excessive short positions after the big brother pulls back. Currently, there is basically no selling pressure above.

Of course, it is also possible that there will be no pullback and it will directly eat the long positions. After all, there are still more than 300 million in long positions at 92.

Overall, today's volume is a bit large. However, the participation of retail investors in BTC spot trading is low; it's basically dominated by large players, institutions, market makers, and big brothers. Retail investors are mostly in contracts. Therefore, the volume can only serve as a reference.

Finally, I want to encourage myself that today I achieved unity of knowledge and action in both operations. Keep it up!

Basically meets expectations

Before the US stock market opens, a brief analysis of the afternoon trend

At noon, the forecast for the afternoon was a low-volume rise, which was incorrect; there was a significant increase in volume in the afternoon, with 200 million more than in the morning. There is some suspicion that the undercurrents of news might be misleading.

In the afternoon, gold futures fell and then rose by 0.2 points back to 3300, while US Treasuries rose by 1 point. The rise in gold is likely due to the India-Pakistan conflict, while the rise in US Treasuries is harder to predict.

From a technical perspective, there was a significant rise in volume in the afternoon, which was somewhat frightening. The long-short ratio in the 92-96 range remains bullish.

Last week, the US stock market closed with a continuous rise, and BTC ETF rose by more than 3 points. Will today’s opening continue this trend? This remains a question mark.

From the above information, it can be seen that tonight should see a continued upward trend.

However, we cannot rule out a pullback.

We need to consider what circumstances might lead to a pullback.

1. The big player does not want to reveal their cards, and the retail investors are looking to go long at 93-94.
2. Major Wall Street players are unloading, executing trades.
3. Sudden major negative news.
What situations might lead to a sustained rise:
1. New funds entering the market.
2. Lock-up positions being released.
3. Major positive news.
These are the scenarios.

Analyzing the above situation, based on the past, the big player will not refrain from making moves. If the big player were to withhold action, there would not be a sustained rise this afternoon. Welcoming the big player, they might indicate a move and execute trades.
Will the big player crash the market? It’s unlikely, as they need to have cards to keep harvesting.
I don't want to type out the rest of the analysis. There is a probability of a rapid drop turning into a rise. It will not break through the short-term resistance of 98.

The trend in the afternoon should still be a slight increase of around 16 points, followed by a surge and then a decline, and then a continuous drop until 8:30-9:30.
Then we'll see the actions of the big player. If the big player wants to sell off in volume, then they will continue to sell off. If the big player wants to increase in volume, then they will continue to push up.

In the morning's news, gold has risen again, and U.S. Treasury bonds have also risen. The increase is not significant, likely influenced by the undercurrents in the news, with some funds starting to flee.

Predicting the trend for tonight, it should be a sharp drop followed by a rebound. When U.S. stocks open, ETFs will initially sell off to take profits, keeping their data, and then Wall Street will step in, leading to a slight pullback and sideways fluctuation. The closing should see a small stretch upwards.

The following days are likely to see a continuous decline, in line with the undercurrents in the news. Funds are in a panic. Panic in funds is an opportunity, keep it up!

The morning trend was the same as the morning prediction, with a continuous decrease in volume. In the morning, I made a small long position at the 9300 level, setting a stop loss at 927. After a rebound of 50 points, I reduced half of the position, making a 100% profit and then halving it again. I didn't dare to think about doubling my account; I was still afraid of losses. I need to cultivate my trading mindset and techniques, increase trading confidence, review more, pay attention to news, and think more.

The nighttime trend is basically consistent with the analysis from yesterday afternoon, with no institutional participation; it is essentially a mutual destruction between retail investors, with large holders unloading their positions.

Over the course of the night, the buying pressure at 93-92 was weak, while the selling pressure at 94 was strong, causing the long-short ratio to rise to 0.71.
What will today’s trend look like during the day?

The rise in data indicates a decrease in shorts or an increase in longs. The number of shorts has decreased. This needs some thought.

Today during the day, a one-sided trend should occur, continuing to shrink in volume and declining slowly. Significant fluctuations are expected when the U.S. stock market opens in the evening; the traders and large holders will still be watching Wall Street's movements.
If it doesn't break through 932, then the overall trend remains intact.

On the news front, there are undercurrents with some short positions.
From a technical standpoint, today's breakout did not have significant volume, but rather a few million in false breakout, consistent with expectations of the manipulative players, followed by a volume-increasing pullback.
The long-short ratio remains at 0.65.
I am curious why the long-short ratio remains at 0.65; logically, this breakout should have triggered a significant number of bearish positions. I speculate that the majority of short positions were likely established around the 87-91 range, and the liquidation point should be above 10. Alternatively, there may have been hedging that diluted the long-short ratio. This data can only serve as a reference.
Returning to the market situation, both US stocks and ETFs are not showing their cards, which can be ignored. Positions should have been reduced or adjusted around Thursday and Friday.
Thus, the market basically consists of major players and manipulators; currently, the manipulators have already liquidated some short positions in the morning, and a breakout is unlikely in the short term as they will face selling pressure at 96. This leaves the short-term long positions, which are generally built around 942, aligning with the current swing position of the manipulators. Based on a liquidation range of 30%-100%, that would be around 932.
The major players may be influenced by news today and seek opportunities to sell off; from the trading volume perspective, it appears that most are experiencing significant declines with reduced volume pullbacks and less support than before.

Therefore, the next step for the manipulators should be to swing around 942, coinciding with the major players who are driven to sell due to undercurrent news.

l

It should pull back once more, and the outlook is bearish,

it has reached the support level of 93,500. This time it seems difficult to reach 96 without buyers stepping in. The news seems to be brewing negative sentiment, and if it pulls back to 94,5, it will be a good opportunity to short.