Before discussing BTC, let’s chat about Trump!

In my view, Trump has always been a complex person. While many believe his series of operations are problematic and have collapsed the U.S. economy, my analysis suggests he did it intentionally.

Let’s look at it from another angle: if you were Trump, what would you do? Upon taking office, you find the treasury is out of money, and there’s a stack of short-term government bonds to repay, with debt reaching the ceiling. Look into my eyes!

Once you see through the mess above, you will understand his series of operations, including Musk's efficiency department, tariff negotiations, the Russia-Ukraine issue, and the series of actions by the Federal Reserve, right?

In fact, Trump is doing relatively well. If it were someone else, it might have come to a standstill (this has happened in history).

Returning to the center, all these operations essentially aim to raise money: from where to raise it and who will provide it. Currently, the global entities that can provide assistance are us and the EU. Our stance has been expressed. I don’t know if everyone saw the meeting from a few days ago; they have defined the tariff war as a trade 'struggle,' leaving almost no room for easing. This makes negotiation impossible; negotiation means surrender.

Trump's next step should be to take measures against Europe. This can also be seen from the news in the past two days, such as the power outage in Spain, which fits the American style of doing things: first threatening, then negotiating. Using the energy crisis to pressure the EU. Why Spain? Because Spain has developed the best in the EU over the past two years.

The methods mentioned above are unlikely to completely resolve the crisis. The remaining option is to issue bonds and continue issuing bonds. If issuing bonds, one must consider whether to issue short-term or long-term bonds, which is linked to U.S. Treasury yields.

The last resort is to print money directly, lower interest rates to stimulate market vitality, which is called quantitative easing. This is a desperate measure and will not be used until the moment of collapse.

Currently, the yield on U.S. Treasuries has been declining continuously in recent days, which is not a big problem for the Americans.

One must understand that Trump is not a fool; he won't allow America to head into recession. I believe that after June, the U.S. stock market will rise significantly. All these antics he is doing are merely to raise some money for the U.S. government. Without startup capital, how can the U.S. manufacturing industry return?

The Federal Reserve and Congress will definitely relent, and after the end of June, the market should rise continuously.

Of course, the U.S. debt crisis has not been resolved, and there will still be a day of defaults. But the U.S. is the world's largest economy; it can't simply become second so easily.

The overall direction has been analyzed, and currently, the major trend is upward. The next consideration is whether it will be a sustained increase or a pullback followed by an increase.

1. Assuming a pullback followed by an increase:

The selling pressure above 95-99 is actually not very large, but the pressure above 10 is quite substantial. Therefore, the pullback point should not reach 10; where will it go instead? My prediction is around 98. Where will it pull back to? It depends on real-time support since the space below is too large, with room from 92-87-80.

2. Assuming a sustained increase

This depends on whether there is sustained incremental capital entering the market. If there is no large influx of incremental capital, it will be difficult to achieve this. This has been analyzed in previous daily reviews: when it was 100,000, the trading volume was 5 billion per day; now it's 2 billion, a clear contraction. Where will the incremental capital come from next? Stock market funds or other places?

Alright, we will discuss the remaining parts in the next article.