0xPai
👨💻二级市场职业交易员Twitter:PPai_Crypto🟠枝源派本Finding and Tracing the Roots of Things
3 Following
145 Followers
542 Liked
62 Shared
Posts
See original
The bull market in 2023 seems to have nothing to do with ETH? Is ETH still the same thing it used to be?
Follow me and let the time come to 2016, which was the year when the explosive development of ETH's grand narrative began.
This year, countless people with dreams of getting rich have squeezed their heads to join the generous road of POW graphics card miners. The wave of ICO in 2017 was also led by raising more ETH. The bull market also reached its climax at this moment, and ETH The status of Ethereum was also achieved at this moment. Rather than the ICO coin issuance that led to the beginning of Ethereum, it is better to say that we are greedy and yearn for the blockchain spirit and the blockchain world. ETH was achieved, and then the September 4th regulations were implemented. Entering the stage of a bear market.
In 2019, as the lock-up volume of DeFi tripled, we call 2019 the first year of DeFi. As the largest public chain platform, ETH is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary. We have also experienced a small-scale bull market. , ETH once again consolidated its second position.
20 years...21 years... In the following time, the ecological scale of ETH has continued to grow, and it has become the largest ecosystem in the currency circle. This is also the era of ecological dividends of Ethereum, and countless VCs have made a lot of money, so More people are more firmly supporting and following everything advocated by the ETH ecosystem and Vitalik.
Let’s move the timeline back to 2023, the bull market that started in March. We need to ask, is Ethereum still the largest ecosystem in the currency circle that can support the blockchain world and fill half of the bull market? In this hot bull market, the most exciting thing is Inscription Market, Solana and the overall ecology, POW small market value tokens.
What we seem to feel is that this large-scale bull market that started in March is more often led by emotions and funds, not fundamentals. Just like memes, many coins/projects are not It is necessary to understand various analyzes of the track/data situation/team situation/what problems have been solved, but more people’s investment logic revolves around these, so those who are still clinging to the Ethereum ecosystem seem to be here During the bull market movement, we did not get the desired rate of return. This also shows that there are no fresh narratives that can make waves in the currency circle at this stage, and some are just new speculations.So this is also the logic why meme can dominate this market.
So facing the world of blockchain, what exactly do we need? What is needed is blockchain technology to change the world and bring us into the next era? All you need is the blockchain spirit? Or do we just need a target for speculation? This is a question left for all of us to think about.
I once had a conversation with a technology guru about the future of Ethereum, about technology/ecology/community/questions.
In fact, it can be summed up in just one sentence. Let’s not talk about the future, but look at the present. There is no shortage of technology in the currency circle. In terms of ecology/community, it is better to have more ETH than to replace ETH.
Hopefully, all practitioners will eventually get what they want.
Follow me and let the time come to 2016, which was the year when the explosive development of ETH's grand narrative began.
This year, countless people with dreams of getting rich have squeezed their heads to join the generous road of POW graphics card miners. The wave of ICO in 2017 was also led by raising more ETH. The bull market also reached its climax at this moment, and ETH The status of Ethereum was also achieved at this moment. Rather than the ICO coin issuance that led to the beginning of Ethereum, it is better to say that we are greedy and yearn for the blockchain spirit and the blockchain world. ETH was achieved, and then the September 4th regulations were implemented. Entering the stage of a bear market.
In 2019, as the lock-up volume of DeFi tripled, we call 2019 the first year of DeFi. As the largest public chain platform, ETH is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary. We have also experienced a small-scale bull market. , ETH once again consolidated its second position.
20 years...21 years... In the following time, the ecological scale of ETH has continued to grow, and it has become the largest ecosystem in the currency circle. This is also the era of ecological dividends of Ethereum, and countless VCs have made a lot of money, so More people are more firmly supporting and following everything advocated by the ETH ecosystem and Vitalik.
Let’s move the timeline back to 2023, the bull market that started in March. We need to ask, is Ethereum still the largest ecosystem in the currency circle that can support the blockchain world and fill half of the bull market? In this hot bull market, the most exciting thing is Inscription Market, Solana and the overall ecology, POW small market value tokens.
What we seem to feel is that this large-scale bull market that started in March is more often led by emotions and funds, not fundamentals. Just like memes, many coins/projects are not It is necessary to understand various analyzes of the track/data situation/team situation/what problems have been solved, but more people’s investment logic revolves around these, so those who are still clinging to the Ethereum ecosystem seem to be here During the bull market movement, we did not get the desired rate of return. This also shows that there are no fresh narratives that can make waves in the currency circle at this stage, and some are just new speculations.So this is also the logic why meme can dominate this market.
So facing the world of blockchain, what exactly do we need? What is needed is blockchain technology to change the world and bring us into the next era? All you need is the blockchain spirit? Or do we just need a target for speculation? This is a question left for all of us to think about.
I once had a conversation with a technology guru about the future of Ethereum, about technology/ecology/community/questions.
In fact, it can be summed up in just one sentence. Let’s not talk about the future, but look at the present. There is no shortage of technology in the currency circle. In terms of ecology/community, it is better to have more ETH than to replace ETH.
Hopefully, all practitioners will eventually get what they want.
See original
#BTC This time it’s just a casual chat~ I don’t have any opinions.
Liquidity ↔ Narrative ↔ Currency Price / These three are mutually reinforcing and connected. Without any of these three, there will be no bull market.
The purpose of the bull market is that the increase in currency prices drives the amplification of greedy leverage, which requires liquidity and narrative as important aids. The currently known narrative is the upgrade of eth, the "unknown post-era" and the halving of BTC production.
But at present, these two narratives are no longer enough to leverage the existing currency market to continue to increase the market value of the bull market in the past.
Because the overall volume has undergone a qualitative change, and more traditional institutional investment participation will also create the rationality > emotion of the market to a certain extent. (In my understanding, bear market = rationality, bull market = adding leverage Sentiment) Therefore, the next round of bull market, which will see a large-scale overall increase in market value, requires more sufficient liquidity and more creative narratives.
So far we have pinned our hopes on many sections, but these sections are only on paper and struggling powerlessly so far. It’s not that I am pessimistic, but if I think about it from another angle, maybe it is true that the bear is as long as the cow is as tall.
Liquidity ↔ Narrative ↔ Currency Price / These three are mutually reinforcing and connected. Without any of these three, there will be no bull market.
The purpose of the bull market is that the increase in currency prices drives the amplification of greedy leverage, which requires liquidity and narrative as important aids. The currently known narrative is the upgrade of eth, the "unknown post-era" and the halving of BTC production.
But at present, these two narratives are no longer enough to leverage the existing currency market to continue to increase the market value of the bull market in the past.
Because the overall volume has undergone a qualitative change, and more traditional institutional investment participation will also create the rationality > emotion of the market to a certain extent. (In my understanding, bear market = rationality, bull market = adding leverage Sentiment) Therefore, the next round of bull market, which will see a large-scale overall increase in market value, requires more sufficient liquidity and more creative narratives.
So far we have pinned our hopes on many sections, but these sections are only on paper and struggling powerlessly so far. It’s not that I am pessimistic, but if I think about it from another angle, maybe it is true that the bear is as long as the cow is as tall.
See original
The#BTCmarket is a cycle, history will not simply repeat, but history is always similar.
See original
In the trading market, people who do subtraction are more likely to succeed than those who do addition.
#BTC When it comes to investing or speculating, people who do subtraction are often more likely to succeed than people who do addition. For the followers of this post, I share a small part of my thoughts on trading. I also hope that you and I can grow together in this bear market cycle and be fully prepared for the arrival of the bull market.
For example, the number of transactions you make in each stage determines your overall risk exposure ratio. For example, if you spend a lot of energy to learn various scenarios in the currency circle, this will undoubtedly distract your energy and increase the risk of making wrong decisions.
For example, the number of transactions you make in each stage determines your overall risk exposure ratio. For example, if you spend a lot of energy to learn various scenarios in the currency circle, this will undoubtedly distract your energy and increase the risk of making wrong decisions.
See original
Regarding when and how to buy at the bottom, I believe you can get the answers you want from this analysis.
Question 1: In which cycle do you think we may be in now?
Question 2: What other information can you get from the historical trend of the K line in the picture?
Question 3: Do you think the fourth Bitcoin halving in 2024 may occur in a bull market?
The picture below shows the analysis of Bitcoin’s Q4 quarter K-line from 2011 to 2022.
In another set of data, among the October months of Bitcoin from 2013 to 2022, there are a total of 10 months, of which 8 are positive and 2 are negative. The percentage increase of Bitcoin in October every year is 80% and the percentage decrease is 20%. The same question is, what are the same or similar macro backgrounds and market backgrounds that you can find from the rising months and falling months?
Question 2: What other information can you get from the historical trend of the K line in the picture?
Question 3: Do you think the fourth Bitcoin halving in 2024 may occur in a bull market?
The picture below shows the analysis of Bitcoin’s Q4 quarter K-line from 2011 to 2022.
In another set of data, among the October months of Bitcoin from 2013 to 2022, there are a total of 10 months, of which 8 are positive and 2 are negative. The percentage increase of Bitcoin in October every year is 80% and the percentage decrease is 20%. The same question is, what are the same or similar macro backgrounds and market backgrounds that you can find from the rising months and falling months?
See original
Open your trading thinking space, how should we deal with the next market trend?
#BTC Let me start with the conclusion: The market in the next one to two months will be more difficult to operate than at any time this year. The regulation of macro data will account for a greater proportion of factors that dominate the market direction. All of this paragraph The explanation is mainly to provide a more objective logical framework (technical structure and macro judgment) so that investors can get sufficient trading thinking space within the framework and face the next transaction more calmly and plannedly. #crypto2023
Figure 1 is a market deduction based on the current market trend and some objective conditions. This figure is a technical analysis deduction based on the upper and lower trend lines that have formed the prototype of a bullish wedge. (When the structure is not fully completed, the market deduction here can only be used as an analysis idea and cannot be used as a reference for any actual transactions. Its reference value and rising probability will not increase until the actual structure is completed.)
Figure 1 is a market deduction based on the current market trend and some objective conditions. This figure is a technical analysis deduction based on the upper and lower trend lines that have formed the prototype of a bullish wedge. (When the structure is not fully completed, the market deduction here can only be used as an analysis idea and cannot be used as a reference for any actual transactions. Its reference value and rising probability will not increase until the actual structure is completed.)
See original
Let’s take a fresh look at the market
There is a question that needs to be rethought. The rebound of the calf market in the bear market stage. In the time sequence of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, we can see the fact that from the high point in 2017 to December 2019, the exchange rate has actually been declining. In terms of trend, during this period in 2019, there was a mid-term bear market rebound and a bull market. It was only after September 2019 that ETH/BTC gradually began to trend upward.
Therefore, if according to the ideas of some people in the market, assuming that the Mavericks market in this section is based on 2019, it seems reasonable that the exchange rate here is always in a relatively weak state. Basically, the exchange rate is as shown in the figure. It maintained a horizontal shock trend from 2018-12-10 to 2019-6-24. In other words, ETH has not gone out of the independent market. It has been following the market and rising accordingly. However, after BTC reaches the stage high, ETH/BTC will show a weaker downward trend.
Therefore, if according to the ideas of some people in the market, assuming that the Mavericks market in this section is based on 2019, it seems reasonable that the exchange rate here is always in a relatively weak state. Basically, the exchange rate is as shown in the figure. It maintained a horizontal shock trend from 2018-12-10 to 2019-6-24. In other words, ETH has not gone out of the independent market. It has been following the market and rising accordingly. However, after BTC reaches the stage high, ETH/BTC will show a weaker downward trend.
See original
Is Bitcoin about to see greater volatility in April?
#BTC From the end of March to mid-April, there are still a lot of events and important data. This is just a part of it. At the same time, on April 13, ETH will suspend the recharge of the entire network to complete the Shanghai upgrade. My views have never changed. Below is a summary of eight views. You can check my previous tweets for reference and understanding. Some of them have detailed logical explanations and arguments.
1. The core of this year is to go long on dips and try not to go short, so the first thing to bear the brunt is to do spot trading. 2. Strictly manage positions and control risks, and be able to advance and retreat freely in large-cycle transactions. 3. The technical trends of the market so far are within the expectations of early technical analysis. 4. Due to many factors, Grayscale added positions, and bank thunderstorms were the focus, which led to increased risk aversion. After the hedging funds spilled into Crypto, BTC.D rose rapidly.
1. The core of this year is to go long on dips and try not to go short, so the first thing to bear the brunt is to do spot trading. 2. Strictly manage positions and control risks, and be able to advance and retreat freely in large-cycle transactions. 3. The technical trends of the market so far are within the expectations of early technical analysis. 4. Due to many factors, Grayscale added positions, and bank thunderstorms were the focus, which led to increased risk aversion. After the hedging funds spilled into Crypto, BTC.D rose rapidly.
See original
#agix Pay attention first, Youla may be the last wave, I won’t draw any conclusions for the time being, just pay attention to the situation here, it’s not time to choose the direction yet.
See original
Binance.us Voyager Hearing Latest News
#vgx #voyager Hearing, no conclusion has been reached so far. However, the hearing judge said he was "absolutely shocked" by the SEC's opposition to the Binance deal. He has serious doubts about the SEC's attempt to block Binance's acquisition of the assets of collapsed cryptocurrency lender Voyager Digital. I'm not sure there will be any real progress tonight.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/02/voyager-bankruptcy-judge-says-he-is-absolutely-sh
#vgx #voyager Hearing, no conclusion has been reached so far. However, the hearing judge said he was "absolutely shocked" by the SEC's opposition to the Binance deal. He has serious doubts about the SEC's attempt to block Binance's acquisition of the assets of collapsed cryptocurrency lender Voyager Digital. I'm not sure there will be any real progress tonight.
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/02/voyager-bankruptcy-judge-says-he-is-absolutely-sh
Login to explore more contents