There is a question that needs to be rethought. In the time sequence of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, we can see that from the high point in 2017 to December 2019, the exchange rate has actually been in a downward trend. During this period in 2019, there was a mid-term bear market rebound bull market. After entering September 2019, ETH/BTC gradually began to rise.
So if we follow the thinking of some people in the market and assume that the bull market in this section is to be used as a reference for 2019, then it seems reasonable that the exchange rate here is always in a relatively weak state. Basically, as shown in the figure, the exchange rate maintained a horizontal fluctuation trend from 2018-12-10 to 2019-6-24. In other words, ETH did not go out of the independent market, but has been following the market and rising. However, after BTC reached the stage high, ETH/BTC will show a weaker downward trend.
This can be proved by the actual increase of Bitcoin and Ethereum from 2018-12-10 to 2019-6-24 in the figure below, which show that the increase is basically the same.
However, when we compare the growth of Bitcoin and Ethereum from the low point of 2023-3-10, we will find that the actual growth has always been far ahead of BTC. This is one of the reasons why most of us in the market are willing to believe that ETH will have a compensatory rally or that funds will rotate and ETH will lead non-coins to an independent trend.
However, we still overlooked one point, that is, from December 10, 2018 to June 24, 2019, Bitcoin and Ethereum were actually at a relatively low historical price. Then, we start to calculate the increase through the actual historical price lows of Bitcoin and Ethereum from 2022 to 2023. We will find that Ethereum has always been in the leading position from the low point to the rebound high point. It is not surprising that BTC has been leading the rise, and even non-bitcoins are weaker during the callback.
The logical analysis mentioned above is not an objective argument or inference, but for the subsequent market conditions, the logic of general rise is no longer the optimal strategy. Instead, we should focus on the sectors or tokens that are most popular with funds, judge the focus of funds by the transaction volume, and follow them. The currencies that need to be ambushed should also be observed with a small stop loss. Don't linger too much and go wherever the funds go.
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