Kanesha Stears brgT

Where will BTC stabilize after the drop?

1. Recently, the crypto market has seen significant declines, but the stock market has suffered even more. Nvidia's drop has exceeded that of BTC, and Tesla's decline has surpassed that of ETH. Investments related to Trump’s concepts have all fallen back to pre-election levels.

2. The area around 73000 is a very important support level for BTC. This includes the high point of the last wave + weekly EMA60 + Fibonacci 0.382 retracement + a significant 33% retracement since the bull market began (the last wave fell from 74,000 to 49,000). This will be a psychological level that resonates with many traders, closely monitor #美股大跌 #MtGox钱包动态 #ETH巨鲸清算

Cryptocurrency "Short Seller Exodus": When Everyone is Shorting, the Market Starts to "Self-ignite"!
#加密市场回调

Don't think you can predict the market; the script of the cryptocurrency world is something even the writers can't come up with!

Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon in the cryptocurrency circle: Everyone is shorting, while the bulls have disappeared, and the funding rates have turned negative. At this point, a question arises: Contracts earn money from the counterparties, but if there are no counterparties, who do the shorts earn money from? Is it just empty air?

As a result, over the weekend, Trump made a loud statement, and various cryptocurrencies surged directly by 20% or even more! Do you think this is the power of Trump's "rhetoric"? No, this is actually the "chain reaction of short sellers' liquidation" fueling the market! Normally, when Trump makes a statement, it might only rise by 5%, but the shorts had accumulated 4 months of "fuel," which was suddenly ignited, causing the market to directly "explode"!

Imagine, hundreds of billions in short positions, like a pile of dry firewood, just waiting for a spark. Trump's tweet was that spark, and the shorts instantly turned into "fuel," propelling the market to soar!

So, when everyone thinks "shorting is guaranteed profit," the market will always surprise you. The shorts thought they were "harvesting," but instead, they became the "fuel."

Summary:
When everyone is shorting, the market may "self-ignite."
The liquidation of shorts is the "fuel" for the bulls.
There is no strategy in the cryptocurrency world that guarantees profit; there are only unexpectedly surprising plots!

It's normal for prices to drop during the day and then rebound at night; indicators need to be repaired. In terms of operations, treat the rebound as an opportunity to short rather than chasing the rise. Bitcoin has rebounded from 78200 to around 83000, which is a 4800 point rebound. It has only dropped from 86100 during the day, down 7900 points. If it pulls back too much, it will be another deep V temptation...

Consider shorting Bitcoin around the current price of 83500, add to the short at 85000, with a target of 81000 to 79000 to 77000.

Consider shorting Ethereum around the current price of 2200, add to the short at 2250, with targets of 2150, 2100, and 2000.

Be sure to strictly manage your stop-loss; I have already jumped in, leading the charge for everyone! #币安盘前市场上线RED $BTC

Surprise! Texas Promotes Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill, Potentially Setting a Precedent for Other States in the U.S.

The Texas Senate Banking Committee recently passed Bill No. 21 (SB-21) unanimously, proposing to include Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the state's financial reserves. The bill aims to enhance financial security and address inflation and economic fluctuations by granting the Texas comptroller the authority to purchase, sell, and trade digital assets. This move signifies a growing interest among U.S. states in Bitcoin as a financial safeguard, with Oklahoma, Arizona, and Utah also considering similar measures.

The bill was initially introduced by Texas Senator Charles Schwertner, originally focusing solely on Bitcoin, but after President Trump issued an executive order, the bill was expanded to include other digital assets, reflecting the government's push to integrate crypto assets into the national economic strategy.

Although this move has received enthusiastic support from Bitcoin advocates, some analysts, such as Iliya Kalchev from Nexo, point out that the symbolic significance of the bill's passage outweighs its actual impact, serving more as preparation for future economic uncertainty.

Texas is already a hub for cryptocurrency mining, and if this bill passes, it will further solidify the state's position in blockchain innovation, potentially attracting more investment. However, the bill also faces challenges, requiring a robust digital asset management framework that addresses custody, price volatility, and regulatory issues. If successful, Texas's initiative could encourage other states to follow suit and may prompt federal regulators to reassess cryptocurrency policies.

Why is it said that improving your judgment is 10,000 times more important than hard work?

I chatted with a few old friends in the afternoon and found that people who have experienced many bull and bear markets in Crypto and successfully become rich have one thing in common:

Superior judgment!

Judgment is very important and is a seriously underestimated ability in this era. Effort is seriously overestimated. Direction is always more important than speed. Wisdom and judgment are highly correlated.

I think the definition of judgment should be:

The ability to make wise decisions in complex or uncertain situations involves evaluating information, considering alternatives and predicting results. It combines knowledge, experience and critical thinking and is an important skill.

Navar said: In the era of leverage, a correct decision, or doing one thing right, can help you win everything.

This is indeed the case. For example, you dared to buy at the bottom on 312 and 519, and dared to escape in the Luna and FTX incidents. Every decision is worth a lot of money.

The right decision can indeed make you richer or poorer. Buffett spends most of his time brewing, thinking and observing, and only makes the important decision at the right time.

The root of the right decision lies in whether you have foresight or judgment.

Establish a decision-making model and clear judgment: logic and mathematics, clear thinking, seeking truth from facts, recognizing the truth of the world, and being honest with yourself.

The following are some methods that grok3 gave me to improve judgment after I chatted with him. Judgment cannot be achieved through short-term training, but can only be obtained through our experience and long-term learning!

The harder the fall, the greater the opportunity; the market is the most brutal game!

Brothers, to be honest, right now, with this kind of decline, retail investors can hardly hold on. Many are cutting losses and exiting, and there are countless who have closed their accounts. When the fear index reaches extreme fear at 10, the market is still stagnant, with no trends in sight and no rebound strength at all. To be honest, this kind of violent drop indicates a cleansing process that is indeed more brutal compared to previous years. In fact, this is a helpless strategy of the big players. If it were simple to wash out retail investors, the big players wouldn't resort to such tactics. This proves that there are still many retail investors unwilling to take losses and stubbornly holding on, which is why the big players are reluctant to push the market up. They don't want to leave any bloody chips for retail investors. Once retail investors are almost completely out, it means it's time for the market to take off. Before a bull market arrives, there is always a deep cleansing process; if retail investors don't exit, the big players won't push up the market!

Of course, when considering the news, policies, and technical aspects, the outlook is not optimistic. These are all things for retail investors to observe, so I want to tell you that BTC still has room to drop. The cost range for big players is between 54,000 and 72,000. If they extreme wash the market, it is not impossible for BTC to reach 72,000, whereas ETH is closer to the cost price of the big players compared to BTC. This is why altcoins have almost no room to drop.

So, in extreme scenarios, if BTC drops to 72,000, jump in directly; if ETH drops to 2,000, that is also the final bottom line. If it falls below 2,000, altcoins are almost beyond saving. However, I believe that this kind of crazy washing is more of a sign before a bull market arrives. If goods need to be offloaded, a gradual decline is necessary to sell off more effectively. A reckless sell-off is clearly just forcing retail investors to hand over their chips, and nothing more!

Historical experience tells us that buying when the fear and greed index is at 10 and selling when it is at 90 is always correct in the long run. History has repeatedly verified this principle.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin Sell-Off Triggers Sharp Market Drop to $79K

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, recently sold 5,100 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $409 million and 30,000 Ethereum (ETH) worth $64.8 million on Thursday (Feb. 27).

As a result, the crypto market turned red, with Bitcoin plunging to $79,400 per coin.

According to Arkham Intelligence, other major institutions, including Fidelity, also liquidated 8,300 BTC worth $670 million within 72 hours.

Meanwhile, Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive outflows:

$937.90 million on Tuesday (Feb. 25)

$754.60 million, $516.40 million, and $336.50 million in the same week

The question remains—why are top institutions selling Bitcoin in such large volumes?

The market crash is irreversible; no one expected that under the full-scale pursuit and interception across the internet, the hacker's money laundering speed would be so fast! In just a few days, the Bybit hacker has laundered over 50% of the stolen ETH. Such a massive amount of ETH is exchanged for BTC, and then recklessly dumped for USD, making it impossible to stop. It turns out that the so-called blockchain security system is so fragile; yet it still wants to innovate for traditional finance. With this behavior, it would be better not to harm traditional finance.
According to monitoring by Spot On Chain, the Bybit hacker has laundered over 50% of the stolen ETH. In the past 6 days, 266,309 ETH have been laundered, worth approximately $614 million, accounting for 53.3% of the stolen ETH. Most of it was exchanged for BTC through THORChain, with a daily laundering rate of 48,420 ETH. At this rate, the remaining ETH could potentially be laundered in just 5 days.
There was just news of a disaster; the public wallet of Suji Yan, the founder of Mask Network, who claims to use advanced encryption technology for messages and transactions, was stolen for over $4 million, suspected to be due to a private key leak or offline attack. Ironically, the hacker chose to launch the attack on his birthday, the 29th.
In an instant, the blockchain has become riddled with holes and particularly unsafe, which may be the reason why the capital market is starting to crash and step back to observe. $MASK

#比特币价格走势分析

Hahaha, after reading CZ's words, I felt like the emperor's new clothes were exposed. I used to think that DEX was not as good as CEX, but I didn't dare to say it, for fear of being laughed at by others. Today, after seeing CZ say it, I realized that I was not the only one who thought DEX was not easy to use. I admire CZ's frankness as always.
CZ: DEX platform is very difficult to use, and it took 27 minutes to successfully trade
CZ posted on X platform: "DEX platform is very difficult to use. It took me 27 minutes to successfully trade, but I still haven't figured out how to add a liquidity pool."
Previously, CZ failed twice when buying Meme through PancakeSwap.
CZ: This is my first time using DEX, and the experience can be improved a lot
CZ posted on X platform: "This is my first time using AMM, liquidity pool, etc. You don't have to be surprised, I have never used DEX before, I use CEX. I want to put some BNB in ​​TST LP as a test, I have seen the demo of Pancake before. It looks simple. So I didn't refer to any video tutorials. I want to see what the first experience will be like. As a novice, I have to say that the DEX experience can be improved a lot. There may be robots trying to run my public address transactions (or any large transactions). Everyone can monitor what I am doing in real time. Well, there is still a lot to do." $BNB @CZ

#BNBChainMeme热潮

Today's cryptocurrency market crash reminds me of a common term in stock trading - wash trading.
Wash trading, simply put, is when the big players (large funds) use various means to scare away those weak retail investors (small funds), allowing themselves to accumulate shares at lower prices in preparation for a subsequent rally. You can think of it as a psychological battle, where the big players use various tactics to make retail investors believe that stock prices are going to drop, prompting them to sell quickly, while the big players secretly buy in the background. Common methods of wash trading include depressing stock prices, creating false breakouts, and sideways fluctuations.
To cope with wash trading, stay calm: The core of wash trading is to create panic, leading you to act emotionally. Therefore, when facing stock price fluctuations, it is essential to remain calm and not be swayed by short-term ups and downs. Recognize the trend: Wash trading usually occurs during the middle of a price increase, aiming to clear out floating shares. If you can see the medium to long-term trend of the stock, you won't be misled by short-term wash trading. Set a stop loss: To avoid being hurt too deeply by wash trading, it is advisable to set a reasonable stop loss point. For example, if the stock price falls below a key support level, you can choose to temporarily exit and wait for the trend to clarify before re-entering.
Wash trading is a common tactic in the stock market but is equally applicable to the cryptocurrency investment market. As a retail investor, the most important thing is to stay calm, recognize the trend, and not be misled by short-term fluctuations.
This article does not imply that today's market is simply wash trading; it is just a knowledge point I wanted to discuss briefly, and it does not constitute any analysis or advice.
#加密货币 #合约 #以太坊 #比特币 #洗盘

During the major correction, many friends holding altcoins saw declines exceeding 40%, and some even over 80%.

Unlike the '519' event in 2021, the current market decline is occurring in an environment where the number of altcoins has sharply increased, leading to an oversupply in the market. The current market is unlikely to replicate the bull market's broad-based rally; instead, it is characterized by a more selective rotation of assets.

'Foot Trampling Effect' under Layered Liquidity

1. Liquidity Shock from the '519' Event
• Bitcoin plummeted → Funds withdrew from altcoins → Low liquidity tokens were hit hardest
• At that time, low liquidity mid and small-cap MEME coins and DeFi protocol tokens experienced declines far exceeding that of BTC
• High leverage 'liquidation wave'
• During '519', over 10 billion USD in liquidations occurred within 24 hours across the network
• Altcoin contracts were concentratedly liquidated due to high leverage rates above 50x

2. Liquidity Shock from the Current Plunge
• This time, there were 2 billion USD in liquidations within 24 hours across the network; although this figure is lower than during '519', liquidity pressure remains significant
• The market has shifted from 'collective revelry' to 'structural reshuffling', with assets overly reliant on liquidity facing greater impacts

Background Comparison: '519' vs. 2025 Market Decline

- Triple pressure test of macro tightening + regulatory uncertainty + VC exit - The market has shifted from blind speculation to 'stock game'

Investment Strategy: From 'Volatility Premium' to 'Cash Flow Validation'

This decline is not just a simple clearing of leverage but also a structural adjustment of the market under the triple pressure of macro tightening, regulatory reconstruction, and VC exit.

In the future, the altcoin market will enter a phase of structural reshuffling, and 90% of tokens may not return to their previous highs. Strategies need to be adjusted, shifting from chasing short-term volatility premiums to focusing on the real cash flow of protocols and their antifragility validation.

Key Assessment Indicators
• Protocol Revenue (Actual Earnings vs. Token Release Pressure)
• VC Unlock Schedule (Token Sell-off Pressure)
• On-chain Liquidity Depth (Market Bearing Capacity)

In an environment of continued liquidity tightening, the market will be more stringent in screening for projects that truly possess sustainable value. The era of blind FOMO is over; rational investment is the way to survive.