大侠情报局

After the market fluctuated around 27,000 for several days, it started to rebound again early this morning. The strength of the rebound was beyond the hero's expectations, and it drew a wicket directly upward. This rebound is very similar to the previous rebound after the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank in March. First Republic Bank's first-quarter performance deteriorated significantly, triggering market concerns about the possible continuation of the banking crisis, which directly caused its stock to plummet by 50%. Banking stocks began to fall, and some safe-haven funds entered BTC.

It remains to be seen whether this incidental rise can be sustained. However, from the perspective of the entire market and technology alone, this rebound of BTC has touched the daily MA30, Ether is weakly linked, and most of the overall copycat market is also in a linked rebound. , some new projects rebounded strongly. What needs to be considered now is whether the market rebound can be sustained.

Reviewing the recent market trends, we can see that the previous wave of counterfeit gains basically occurred after the short-term strength of Ether on April 12, and some new and sub-new currencies experienced large increases in a few days. Then on the 19th, the pie started to fall rapidly after the market rose. The result was that in the past few days, the previous compensatory gains of the copycats, including ether, were basically swallowed up. In previous articles, Daxia has mentioned many times that the counterfeit increase is a sign that the market is about to end. He reminds everyone to reduce their positions after the supplementary increase breaks out, because this year’s market is a wide range of shocks, and the market in January and February is the continuation of the copycat market this year. When the rise is at its best, the previous wave of compensatory rises is only for some items. Once the opportunity is not grasped to chase the high, now it is the fate of being trapped. The overall opportunities are actually not many.

Half of April has passed, and the market copycats have also begun to make up for their gains. Ether is strengthening, and the market is still fluctuating around 30,000. Looking back on the previous articles, Daxia repeatedly mentioned the market fluctuations and the opportunities for copycats to make up for the increase. Last week, the Ethernet Shanghai upgrade was completed and began to strengthen, leading the popular copycats to start to make up for the increase. The previous article also analyzed several projects one by one. Among them, audio’s daily line has directly increased by 60%. Now it has fallen back and has increased by 20%. Blur has increased by 40%. Link has increased by 20%. As mentioned in the previous article of DYDX, it has also increased by more than 10%. Only EOS and VGX have performed well. It's not good, but EOS may be able to cash in on its benefits. The follow-up depends on the effect of EVM and whether the ecosystem can recover. As for VGX, let's watch tonight's acquisition news.

In the previous article, Daxia mentioned the impact of the Shanghai upgrade of Ethereum. He believed that this upgrade would be beneficial to the sustainability of Ethereum, and believed that Ethereum still has room for growth. At the same time, looking at the development of blockchain in recent years, the pie is huge. The market capitalization ratio is gradually compressed, and the impact on the entire market is gradually reduced. Looking back at Ethereum, the ecosystem is becoming more and more prosperous, and its impact on the entire market is gradually increasing, because since the last bull market, projects in the ETH ecosystem have been leading, and whether it is Defi, NFT or L2, they are all based on ETH. With the successful upgrade of Ethereum Shanghai, ETH effectively broke through the 2000 pressure mark, and the entire copycat market also started to make up for the increase. Among them, arb, the leader of the Ethereum L2 sector, rose by 40%, and the leader of the NFT trading platform that Daxia has repeatedly mentioned BLUR also started to launch, rising by 20% in two days.

The hero mentioned before that the pie will change this week. Sure enough, last night the pie broke through 30,000 US dollars in one fell swoop. However, the trend did not show the expected trend of first luring the short side back to the daily MA30 and then breaking through. Instead, it directly broke through in one fell swoop. breakthrough. Looking at the overall market, apart from the big market, Ether is only a weak follower, reaching near the previous high, and most of the copycats are only a weak follower, except for CFX and other individual varieties.

So is this wave of big pie an effective breakthrough or a wave of inducement? But judging from the breakthrough last night, it was accompanied by news. This news is that Douyin can directly query the BTC market, but just before posting, Searching for BTC again, it is no longer possible, it is a direct risk warning. The hero has also said many times that if the pie does not step back and directly breaks through 30,000, then the short-term risk will be great, like a castle in the air that will shatter at a touch. In this case, either it will continue to rise in one go, or it will be a false breakthrough that induces more. With this kind of rise, what Daxia sees is not an opportunity, but a risk. In addition, tomorrow is the time when the Hong Kong conference is held and the cpi data is released. The curse of falling at every meeting has been lingering above our heads. The picture below is a trend chart of BTC market capitalization ratio

The recent market has been full of psychedelia. The pie has been fluctuating above $27,000 for 20 days. During this period, the entire market has been extremely divided. Most projects have gone their separate ways. Among large-market value projects, XRP has surged first. It has independently increased by 50%. In the past two days, doge should have changed from the Twitter logo to a dog head and violently increased by 30%. It is currently continuing to fluctuate at a high level. If there is another good news in the future, there may be another upward trend. Last night, Ether also began to strengthen, hitting a new high for the year and breaking through $1,900. Looking back at the entire market now, as the market continues to fluctuate, market funds are still active, and some projects with good expectations and at the bottom have become the short-term choices for hot money.

The recent market situation is really boring. The market has been fluctuating within a narrow range at the daily level, and most of the copycats are also in a downward trend. The entire market feels like it lacks vitality. Last night, the news that Binance was sued by the CFTC caused the market to briefly fall below $27,000. Then, CZ’s tweet caused the market to rebound briefly. But judging from the current market situation, the rebound is still very weak.

Let's review this wave of market rebound from 20,000 to 28,000. From the daily line, this wave of market is a complete V-shaped reversal. The cause was that Powell's hawkish remarks caused the global financial market to fall into a liquidity crisis. Several large banks went bankrupt one after another, and some safe-haven funds poured into BTC, making the pie briefly a safe-haven asset and rising rapidly for several consecutive nights. It broke through multiple pressure levels and rose directly by 40%. However, during this period, Ether only followed the rise in the first few days. Most of the other copycats also followed the rise in the early stage and were unable to rise in the subsequent period. Therefore, this wave of market can be said to be only for the big pie. Carnival, many copycats may have kept up with the rise of the big market from the bottom, but when the big market pulled back a little, the copycats plummeted, and the market was not sustainable. In other words, there are very few opportunities for spot trading in the market, and the operation is extremely difficult, so the heroes also choose to wait and see.

It has been 10 days since the pie broke out on March 11. In these 10 days, the pie has increased by 40%, and Ether has increased by 30%. Most of the copycats were sucked by the pie before. XRP, which had been silent last night, directly increased by 30%. Is this a signal that the market strength is beginning to change?

Looking back at the market situation this year, in January and February, the market mainly focused on hot projects and hot events for speculation. The more popular projects have increased by 2 to 3 times this year, not to mention CFX, a dark horse that emerged out of nowhere. Beginning in late February, the market began to recover after being unable to break through for a long time. The market fell into a liquidity crisis due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks about raising interest rates. Several large banks went bankrupt one after another. Until March 11, a large amount of safe-haven funds began to pour in. In the currency circle, BTC broke through the annual line in one fell swoop and continued to rise.

As soon as the expectation that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates by 50 basis points came out, the global capital market fell into a liquidity crisis. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) went bankrupt one after another, and BTC also fell below the 20,000 mark yesterday. Today, the deposit funds of major institutions in Silicon Valley Bank were once again circulated in the market. The first ones to bear the brunt were A16z and USDC. The entire market fell into panic. In just two days, the entire market was bleeding like a river. It was a bit like the situation on 519 at that time. Similarly, the market has a strong short sentiment this weekend and panic has reached a high point.

Let’s briefly talk about Silicon Valley Bank. It is one of the top 20 banks in the United States. This bank, which grew up in California, is not the traditional branch bank that everyone knows. It makes money by absorbing deposits and loan interest rate spreads. It has no 2C business. It is only for B-end companies and institutions, and its main customers are VCs and startups. I won’t go into details about the reasons for the bankruptcy. As for whether it will cause a further domino effect, we have to wait until Americans wake up on Monday and the U.S. stock market opens to know. However, the hero believes that the problem is not big and there will definitely be a proper solution. Currently, A16z, a VC and USDC company that has invested in a large number of projects, has a greater impact on the currency circle. The market prices have fallen, and what we should do is to seek opportunities.

Hero blind BB

During the past few days of rest, Daxia has been thinking about a question: what stage is the current market in and what should we do in this stage of the market. Daxia is officially back, looking forward to 2023, and seizing the new market trends. In this article, Daxia mentioned to everyone the production reduction cycle of big cakes, and believes that this wave of market is just a rebound after a long-term decline. He believes that the annual line of 25,000 is very Difficult to break through. However, later on, I was unknowingly affected by market sentiment and was coerced by the market. I repeatedly thought that the market would break through the annual line in the short term and made wrong judgments.

Hero blind BB

For an ordinary person, from the moment he is born, his world is a world full of rules. In the trading world, no one restricts your behavior. No one sets a rule that you must trade at 10 o'clock in the morning, and no one requires you to sell at 2 o'clock in the afternoon. All your actions are fully autonomous. Here you don’t need to be bound by business rules, moral rules, or traffic rules…

So what's the difficulty? The difficulty lies in the fact that a trader’s trading behavior is not restricted by anyone’s rules. Pay attention here to distinguish the narrow exchange rules and do not argue. When behavior is not restricted, people lose the guiding role brought by rules. The most difficult thing about trading is that there are no rules to limit your buying and selling behavior. It can be completely random and subjective. The standards and rules are set by you. This will make many people who grew up with rules become confused. , because they are used to doing things step by step. So to solve this problem, we must first understand not to be a blind follower of rules, but to be a rule maker. This is what we often say when doing transactions, you must have your own trading system. For every transaction, you must know why you buy and why you sell.