Hero blind BB

During the past few days of rest, Daxia has been thinking about a question: what stage is the current market in and what should we do in this stage of the market. Daxia is officially back, looking forward to 2023, and seizing the new trend in the market. In this article, Daxia mentioned to everyone the production reduction cycle of big cakes, and believes that this wave of market is just a rebound after a long-term decline. He believes that the annual line of 25,000 is very Difficult to break through. However, later on, I was unknowingly affected by market sentiment and was coerced by the market. I repeatedly thought that the market would break through the annual line in the short term and made wrong judgments.

In fact, as long as you leave the market for a short time and look at the current market situation from an objective perspective, you can easily find that most of the KOLs in the market are bullish, and due to the previous rotation of market sectors, hot projects have basically tripled their prices. The impact of the increase can easily give rise to the illusion that it is a bull market now. But in fact, this wave of prices is just a decent rebound after a long period of market correction. Daxia believes that if the market wants to have a new round of bull market, it needs to meet the following conditions:

1. Loose macroeconomic conditions. I believe everyone is clear about the current market situation. It is difficult to deposit and withdraw funds, the SEC's regulatory trends are unclear, and it is in a cycle of interest rate hikes, etc. These conditions are not conducive to the continuous entry of fresh blood into the market. At this stage, it can only be said that it is in the late stage of the bear market. Compared with last year, it is much better, and it will get better and better in the future, because there are two foreseeable things, one is the trend in Hong Kong, and the other is the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle. There are now at most 2 to 3 more interest rate hikes.

2. The entire market is undergoing a large-scale deleveraging. I believe that the old people in the currency circle know that BTC had a 9.4 before the big surge at the end of 2017. After the bull market in 2017, the market entered a 3-year bear market cycle. During this period, there were only a few relatively strong rebounds. The local market of some popular projects had two major thunders. One was the thunder of USDT in November 2018. Bitcoin directly fell below the so-called iron bottom of $6,000 at the time, and fell to $3,122 in one fell swoop. This was the first deleveraging of the market during the bear market. Because of this thunder and sharp drop, the market was relatively good in the first half of 2019, and Bitcoin rebounded more than 2 times.

The second thunderstorm was 312 in 20 years. The market fell from 8000 to 3850 within 24 hours. It was only after this time that the market entered a large-scale rising cycle and started a new round of bull market.

In the current market, the pie reached a historical high in November 2021, and it is currently only more than a year away from the high point of the pie. During this period, the thunder that had a greater impact on the entire market was FTX last year. There was a thunderstorm, but the impact of this event was too small compared to the two thunderstorms during the last round of bear market. If the market wants to enter a new bull market, it will need a major black swan event to cause a relatively complete long purge. In addition, there is a long-term shock bottom, and it is obvious that the conditions are not up to standard at this stage.

3. The promotion of the market's own cycle, which relies on the development of blockchain technology and the reduction of BTC production. The more important events that can be clearly foreseen now are the several important upgrades of Ethereum after entering the POS stage, the most recent of which is the Shanghai upgrade. As written in the previous article, perhaps in the future, the market will be dominated by Ethereum.

I think the overall market this year may be better described as a monkey market. This year is likely to be a year of wide fluctuations and bottoming out. If a black swan event with a greater impact occurs during this period, it is possible that Bitcoin will fall below the previous low of 15,000. What we can do is actually very simple, capturing potential projects and buying at the bottom during the big drop. As I have always said before, the two sectors that I am optimistic about at this stage are the L2 sector and the LSD sector, including web3, especially some new projects launched last year and this year. Among these projects, there are hundred-fold projects after the outbreak of a new round of bull market, but it may not be a good entry point at this stage. You can patiently wait for the opportunity of a market crash. LSD sector: LDO, RPL, SSV L2 sector: OP web3 infrastructure: ENS Including some L2 projects that have not yet been launched.

Market analysis

BTC

The market has been extremely boring these days. It has been in a straight line for a few days and is currently suppressed by the 4-hour MA30. Judging from the trend, the current market has gone out of a channel to decline. The current situation is more like a sign of inability to rebound. Recently, most copycats in the market are also in the stage of gradual correction. When the trend is unclear, Daxia believes that risk avoidance is the main thing. Support level: 21500 Pressure level: 22900

ETH

ETH is basically linked to BTC and has no independent trend for the time being. If there is a sharp correction in the market, Ether may be the first to go out. Support level: 1500 Pressure level: 1680

Source: Hero Intelligence Bureau

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