无常损失

There are many common sense errors circulating in the currency circle. Here are a few examples:

1. Starknet’s tvl has dropped to an extremely low level in the past two months. Many people think that this kind of useless chain has no hope, and STRK coins are definitely worthless.
The truth: It is not tvl that determines the currency price, but the currency price that determines tvl.

2. zkSync is called rug chain, and there is no decent ecological project. Many people think that this kind of L2 is not valuable even if it issues coins.
The truth: It is not the ecology that determines the currency price, but the currency price that determines the ecology.

3. There are too many people playing zkSync. Many people think that even if this kind of project is airdropped, they won’t get much of it, which is definitely a small amount.
The truth: The more people masturbate, the more likely it is that there will be big problems.

4. Whenever the bear market ends and the bull market begins, many people do not believe that the bull market is coming. The reason is that there are too few funds in the market to support the bull market.
The truth: It is not the increase that brings the bull market, but the bull market that brings the increase.

5. Litecoin fell sharply last year due to the production cut, and many people believe that Bitcoin will not rise due to the production cut the following year.
Truth: Litecoin is an altcoin, Bitcoin is Bitcoin.

6. During the bear market, many people like to look at the shutdown price of Bitcoin to judge the market bottom.
The truth: It is the currency price that determines the mining cost, not the mining cost that determines the currency price.

7. Mining fees for popular inscriptions soar during the casting stage. Many people believe that the casting cost is the bottom price, and it is impossible for inscriptions with high mining fees to return to zero.
Truth: Coin prices are not determined by cost, but by demand.

Bitcoin’s market value surpasses that of Berkshire Hathaway.

Munger’s body is still cold, but BTC is already dancing on his grave.

Er Cao's body and name are both destroyed, and the eternal flow of rivers will not be wasted.

Bull markets always cause high-leverage, impatient, and high-position takers to lose money during shocks. Every time we look back at the bottom of the market at the peak of a bull market, we will think: Why didn't we buy the bottom at that time? In fact, you were buying the bottom at that time. Many people were buying the bottom but failed to catch it.

Open source projects such as OP and ARB have been working quietly for several years with the strength of the community, and finally the airdrop and coin issuance were launched. From theoretical solutions to technical implementation, they are all continuously discussed, verified, and honed by countless contributors in the community, in order to solve the block problem Security, scalability and decentralization of the chain.

Now a small team project suddenly popped up to point out the direction for L2. This countryman temperament is fundamentally inconsistent with the spirit of open source encryption. Empirically, the safety of products released by such teams is also cause for concern.

What is a real bull coin? There is no need to rely on high thresholds to limit liquidity exits. CEX will not collapse even if it is 50 times the contract. There is no need to rely on cost illusions to guarantee value. That’s right, it’s $KAS .

I have a friend who plays commodity futures.

I said: It's okay for you, the periodic table of elements is limited. The altcoin tokens are endless.

He said: The compounds are also endless.

🫠

EOS in 2018 successfully deceived many veterans in the currency circle.

An early Bitcoin evangelist who was active in China even wrote an article praising the governance model of EOS as being more in line with Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision. You can see the sincerity in his heart from between the lines, and his understanding and recognition of eos is from his head, heart and soul, unlike those who just talk about deceiving others and take over the deal.

The eos evangelist later retired. I don’t know if he still holds EOS or BTC now.

The reason why I thought of this is because I just saw another old man in the currency circle who has been retired for many years. He also had a heavy position in EOS back then, and now he is in Ordi.

No matter how hot Brc20 is, the boost to BTC prices will be minimal. It is the rise of BTC that brings about the recovery of Brc20, and the cause and effect cannot be reversed.

The relationship between ETH and Erc20 tokens is the same.

Therefore, there is a logic problem in saying "If you short Brc20, buy some BTC to passively benefit."

Some people have been hoarding/speculating on a small altcoin for a long time. Fortunately, it did not return to zero, and there may be one or two bottom rebounds every year. They are complacent, thinking that they have selected a potential coin and a valuable coin with a promising future. This is #leekillusion.

If $BTC rises like this, the short-term risk will be greater after hitting new highs in the next few days. I've already thought about the script.

In a few days, $TIA will be listed and reach 10u. The entire currency circle is immersed in the Versailles and jealous atmosphere of "getting comfortable" and "money is a result of useless efforts blown by the strong wind".

BTC fell sharply the next day, and TIA fell below 5u. The group members all flooded the screen with soul torture: TIA, why not TIA anymore? He comes and goes from TIA to TIA every day, but as soon as I get on the bus...

My confidence in this market largely stems from my calm judgment of "the currency circle is a scam" and "leeks are brainless".

My point of view is still the same as at the beginning of the year. This year is a small bull market, that is, except for BTC, there are no big opportunities. The ETH/BTC exchange rate may fall for another half year. Hot spots are very short-lived, and you can easily get cut if you chase them. Lao Shanzhai is a dead cat rebound, and there will never be an ATH chance.

I am bullish on Ethereum. Not to mention scary words like "the world's

Some people in the Bitcoin community want to develop BTCFi, but they are actually just looking at the market demand for gambling and cutting leeks. Other lofty ideals are just an excuse, and even they themselves may not believe it.

However, Bitcoin’s fixed low inflation rate determines that it is more suitable as digital gold. L2 has successfully solved the scalability problem of Ethereum, which means that other public chains cannot carry out dimensionality reduction attacks on Ethereum through technological innovation. Ethereum’s leading position as a public chain can no longer be shaken.

Eos is a competitive chain of Ethereum. It is normal to be abandoned if the competition fails. However, there is no competitive relationship between ETH and BTC. Unless the world no longer needs gambling and cutting leeks, no one can eliminate Ethereum.

Arbitrum: The second round of airdrops requires DAO voting. The community has different opinions and it is difficult for such proposals to be passed. No need to masturbate anymore.
Optimism: Starting from the second round, the share of airdrops in each round is very small, the threshold is high, and it is not worth playing.
Linea: The team has zero tolerance for witches and does not hesitate to design dozens or hundreds of point task filtering robots. Those who have never completed the mission basically have no chance to airdrop, and playing for free is useless.
Base: In order to avoid policy risks, the team is deeply bound to Optimism, co-governance and sharing, and is quietly making a fortune, and will not easily modify the economic model. There are fun projects to play with. If there are airdrops, they are calculated on a yearly basis, so there is no need to deliberately play them.
Starknet: The team does not pay attention to the community and does not leave token shares for the community. It may use its ecological projects to scatter some small airdrops to in-depth users. It's too late, there's a high chance of masturbating again, so there's no need to masturbate again.
zkSync: The tokens will be issued in Q2 next year, and 2/3 of the tokens will be reserved for the community. It is very clear and will not be forced. Witches will be filtered by multi-dimensional scoring. The new account has no chance, and the old account continues to masturbate.
Polygon zkEVM: The rival of zkSync, the boss said there is a downpour-style airdrop. Next year, the zk series will become popular, and it should also be airdropped. The attention is low, but if you have the opportunity, you can masturbate.

“We’re not completely ruling out the possibility and I think tokens may be viable at some point in the future.”

[Interpretation]: If Base's transaction fee income decreases significantly in the future, or the growth is less than expected, tokens may be issued as incentives.

“But right now we’re not too focused on the economics and tokenization of the protocol.”

[Interpretation]: In the past three months, Base has earned US$3.5 million from transaction fees, tying with Arbitrum for second place on the L2 money-making list. We have no motivation to modify the economic model.

"Regulatory clarity is also very important."

[Interpretation]: The SEC is staring at us. In order to avoid policy risks, we have chosen to be deeply bound to Optimism for joint governance and sharing, and will not be easily decoupled.

The logic of the currency circle is very simple and clear. It is the game between Gouzhuang and retail investors. Analyzing macroeconomics, supervision, industry fundamentals, and project fundamentals is all a detour.

A bear market is not a good time to issue tokens for airdrops. No matter what the project is, even the most important infrastructure such as Optimism, token issuance in a bear market will fail. The difference is that the first-tier leaders still have the possibility to come back to life in the bull market, while the second-tier and third-tier projects have issued coins in the bear market. By the time the bull market has no better incentives, the final result is to be marginalized, commonly known as a good hand is destroyed.

Binance will launch new coins tomorrow. Judging from the track, $cyber can be regarded as a bit innovative. The Web3 social field has not really opened up. There are currently few competitors, and it may be false demand, but at least the next round of bull market will continue. $sei This kind of L1 project that focuses on high performance is already a thing of the past, and challenging Ethereum is a dead end.

zkSync officially revealed a data: Since the launch of zkSync Era, only 179,365 wallet addresses have interacted with mainstream NFT collections. There are 3 million wallet addresses, and there are less than 200,000 of them. Everyone who understands understands.

News-driven markets are never sustainable. The real reversal occurs after the technical form is fully prepared. Don’t pay too much attention to Ripple’s lawsuit. I believe that even if Ripple loses the lawsuit, it will still pull the trigger. At that time, analysts will say: because all the bad news is gone.